NEW YORK -- Its military counterparts overseas may bring Hellfire missiles and death, but the domestic drone industry has a different offer for the American people: jobs, jobs, jobs.
In a new report released Tuesday, the Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems International (AUVSI) declares that if the Federal Aviation Administration unleashes drones into the American airspace, the industry has the potential to create 70,000 new jobs and $13.6 billion in economic growth in just three years.
"This is the economic impact of what I call a revolutionary-type technology," said Michael Toscano, the president and CEO of AUVSI.
But the carrot comes with a stick: Much of that job growth will happen only, the AUVSI report says, if the regulations being written by the FAA, due in 2015, are broad and permissive. The report adds that economic benefits will flow disproportionately to the states that give drone makers tax breaks and avoid restrictive local rules on drone use.
Both AUVSI, the industry-wide lobbying arm, and individual drone makers like General Atomics, manufacturer of the Predator, see a huge potential growth market in domestic drones. U.S. Customs and Border Protection already flies a fleet of 10 Predators, which cost about $20 million apiece, along the Mexican and Canadian borders.
Now, drone makers hope that local law enforcement agencies, as well as farmers who spray pesticides, will want drones of their own -- albeit probably cheaper, smaller and less scary-sounding ones than the Predator. Public safety and agriculture, the AUVSI report says, will likely account for 90 percent of the domestic market.
The drone industry's shift to the jobs pitch comes as it is taking a public bruising. Last week's filibuster launched by Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) focused on the threat of the Pentagon blasting people from the sky, but it channeled fears of many on both the right and left about the more mundane, but still creepy, privacy issues that could accompany drones in U.S. skies.
States are attempting a delicate balancing act between those privacy concerns and the potential economic boon that drones represent. In California, where General Atomics is based and Northrop Grumman produces the Global Hawk surveillance drone, two state lawmakers have introduced a bill that would give tax breaks for the construction of drone manufacturing plants. But in states such as Arizona, Illinois, Maine, Texas and North Dakota, restrictions on drones are being considered.
Washington state Rep. David Taylor, a Republican from the central part of the state, has introduced a bill that would restrict when state and local law enforcement agencies could buy drones. Agencies would be required to seek legislative approval and to let the public know about their plans -- a step partially prompted by the Seattle Police Department's recent bid, scrapped over privacy concerns, to buy two miniature robot helicopters.
While noting that his bill was actually drafted months earlier, Taylor called Paul's 13-hour filibuster an "inspiration."
"It was just an incredible display of passion and set the standard, as far as I'm concerned, in terms of seeking answers from your government," he said.
Taylor described support for his bill as "incredibly bipartisan." But that doesn't mean everybody is on board. Taylor said that lobbyists for Boeing, the aerospace giant that was founded in Seattle and maintains a huge presence in the state, are pushing back hard. Boeing makes a variety of handheld drones for the military and recently tested a larger spy drone that can fly for four days without refueling.
"What they have conveyed to me is their concern that the market would be reduced," Taylor said. He thinks those concerns are unfounded and noted that nothing in his bill restricts the manufacture of drones.
Toscano, the AUVSI president, acknowledged that people have privacy concerns but chalked many of them up to "misinformation" about what these systems can do. "Some states may adopt this earlier than others, but as the technology is understood and concerns are addressed, then I think you'll see more utilization of the technology," he added.
Others, meanwhile, question the point of tax breaks for an industry that, by one estimate, already generates $1.3 billion in economic impact in the drone manufacturing hub of San Diego alone.
"State and local taxes almost never matter because they can't -- they're way too small a part of the cost structure," said Greg LeRoy, executive director of the economic development watchdog group Good Jobs First. He also noted that drone makers already receive a helping hand from the federal government in the form of massive military contracts.
The claims the industry is making for future job creation might also seem a little puzzling: Drones are, after all, unmanned aircraft. But in estimating that domestic drones will generate 100,000 jobs by 2025, the AUVSI report assumes the "creative destruction" involved in the switch from manned to unmanned aircraft -- all those cockpit jockeys thrown out of a job -- won't lead to any net job loss.
Chris Mailey, vice president of knowledge resources for AUVSI, acknowledged that "it's very easy to point to a lot of jobs that may be displaced." But he argued that drones will also create efficiencies -- when farmers spend less money to spray pesticides, for example -- that will free up money for other purchases that will spur job growth.
However many jobs are created, drone skeptics like Taylor think the public should be well-informed about who is watching from the sky.
"To me, it's a no-brainer," he said.
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Boeing Phantom Ray
<strong>Type</strong>: Military (U.S.) <strong>Description</strong>: Boeing's stealth Phantom Ray took to the skies for the <a href="http://www.boeing.com/Features/2011/05/bds_phantom_ray_first_flight_05_04_11.html" target="_hplink">first time in April 2011</a>. According to Boeing, the <a href="http://www.boeing.com/advertising/bma/unmanned/unmanned_05.html" target="_hplink">Phantom Ray can perform missions</a> such as intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance; suppression of enemy air defenses; and electronic attack. <strong>Potential Deployment</strong>: Unknown. This is a "demonstrator" so there will likely be a future variation of the Ray.
General Atomics Predator Avenger
<strong>Type</strong>: Military (U.S.) <strong>Description</strong>: General Atomics Aeronautical Systems <a href="http://www.ga-asi.com/products/aircraft/predator_c.php" target="_hplink">Predator Avenger C</a> is a beast. According to the two-page brochure, the PAC is a "Next-Generation Multi-mission ISR and Strike Aircraft" and successor for the Predator B that can be stacked with a multitude of weaponry. <strong>Deployment</strong>: There is one <a href="http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story.jsp?topicName=unmanned&id=news/awst/2011/12/19/AW_12_19_2011_p25-406500.xml&headline=USAF Plans Larger, More Capable Predator&channel=&from=topicalreports" target="_hplink">demonstration craft currently in Afghanistan</a>.
SOCOM Mini Drone Of Doom
<strong>Type</strong>: Military (U.S.) <strong>Description</strong>: Yo dawg, I heard you like drones so I <a href="http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/10/socom-warhead-drones/" target="_hplink">put a drone in your drone</a>. One small deadly warhead-equipped mini-drone stuffed into another, to be launched from the main drone and remotely aimed at a target. <strong> Potential Deployment</strong>: This <a href="http://defensenewsstand.com/NewsStand-General/The-INSIDER-Free-Article/socom-could-have-warhead-equipped-micro-uav-by-spring-2012/menu-id-720.html" target="_hplink">warhead-equiped micro-UAV</a> could be flown by SOCOM in the skies by spring 2012.
<strong>Type</strong>: Military (USA) <strong>Description</strong>: <a href="http://www.avinc.com/uas/adc/switchblade/" target="_hplink">AeroVironment's Switchblade</a> is meant to be a portable, rapid deployment, beyond line-of-sight, "loitering munition" that is a "magic bullet." A bit of advice, AeroVironment: Don't describe a remote-controlled bomb as a "loitering munition" that you call "Switchblade," as it conjures up images of 1950's-style greasers loitering on street corners, flipping open switchblades idly as they wait for their favorite gals. Luckily, greasers won't be in charge of flying Switchblades. They're to be controlled by infantry and <a href="http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=7982421&&s=TOP" target="_hplink">according to the AeroVironment</a>, "Flying quietly at high speed the Switchblade delivers its onboard explosive payload with precision while minimizing collateral damage." <strong>Potential Deployment</strong>: Undisclosed.
<strong>Type</strong>: Surveillance (USA, DARPA Funded) <strong>Description</strong>: AeroVironment is at it again. In partnership with DARPA, they've actually managed to build a human mechanically engineered version of one of nature's most amazing flying machines: the hummingbird. The <a href="http://www.avinc.com/media_gallery/" target="_hplink">Nano Hummingbird</a> is a perfect bid for James Bond-esque style spy shenanigans. Once these hit the field, we'll never look at hummingbirds the same way. "Stop looking at me! That bird is following me!" <strong>Potential Deployment</strong>: Within five years.
Army A160 Hummingbird Drone
<strong>Type</strong>: Military (U.S. Army) <strong>Description</strong>: Though the military's <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/12/30/us-army-hummingbird-a160-helicopter-drone_n_1176763.html?ref=technology" target="_hplink">A160 Hummingbird drone</a> doesn't resemble an actual hummingbird so much as AeroVironment's take, it is <a href="http://www.salon.com/2011/12/06/nprs_domestic_drone_commercial/" target="_hplink">raising just as many alarms</a> because of its potential to be deployed on the U.S. home front. <strong>Potential Deployment</strong>: May or June 2012, Afghanistan
<strong>Type</strong>: Military (U.S. Navy) <strong>Description</strong>: Northrop Grumman <a href="http://www.as.northropgrumman.com/products/mq8bfirescout_navy/index.html" target="_hplink">describes the Firescout</a> as a "Transformational Fire Scout Vertical Takeoff and Landing Tactical Unmanned Aerial Vehicle system provides unprecedented situation awareness and precision targeting support for U.S. Armed Forces of the future. The MQ-8B Fire Scout has the ability to autonomously take off and land on any aviation-capable warship and at prepared and unprepared landing zones in proximity to the soldier in contact." <strong>Potential Deployment</strong>: <a href="http://www.irconnect.com/noc/press/pages/news_releases.html?d=237497" target="_hplink">March 2013</a>
<strong>Type</strong>: Military (German Ministry of Defense, purchased from Northrop Grumman) <strong>Description</strong>: NG touts its <a href="http://www.as.northropgrumman.com/products/euro_hawk/index.html" target="_hplink">Euro Hawk</a>, built for German Ministry of Defense, as having a "wingspan larger than a commercial airliner, endurance of more than 30 hours and a maximum altitude of more than 60,000 feet, EURO HAWK is an interoperable, modular and cost-effective replacement to the aging fleet of manned Breguet Atlantic aircraft, which have been in service since 1972 and will be retired in 2010." <strong>Potential Deployment</strong>: 2015, 2016 (<a href="http://www.as.northropgrumman.com/products/euro_hawk/assets/SIGINT_NewsRelease_101211.pdf" target="_hplink">PDF</a>)
<strong>Type</strong>: Military (U.S. Navy) <strong>Description</strong>: A carrier-based combat drone, <a href="http://www.as.northropgrumman.com/products/nucasx47b/index.html" target="_hplink">Northrop Grumman's futuristic X-47B</a> flew in its cruise configuration <a href="http://www.irconnect.com/noc/press/pages/news_releases.html?d=239278" target="_hplink">for the first time</a> on November 22, 2011. It can land with precision on the deck of a moving aircraft carrier, and features twin weapons payload bays that hold up to 4,500 lbs. (<a href="http://www.as.northropgrumman.com/products/nucasx47b/assets/X-47B_Navy_UCAS_FactSheet.pdf" target="_hplink">PDF</a>). <strong>Potential Deployment</strong>: <a href="http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/11/navy-killer-drone-refuel/" target="_hplink">2018</a>
<strong>Type</strong>: Military (British) <strong>Description</strong>: BAE System's Taranis (<a href="http://www.baesystems.com/BAEProd/groups/public/documents/bae_publication/bae_pdf_taranis_fact_sheet.pdf" target="_hplink">PDF</a>) is aiming to "Push the boundaries by providing advancements in low observability capability and autonomous mission systems operations demonstrating the feasibility and utility of UAVs." Such a statement starts to push the idea of fully autonomous flight from science fiction into science fact, though we're still a long way off from having an actual real debate on fully autonomous drones fighting our battles and flying our skies. Potential Deployment: TBD, test flights have been delayed to 2012.
Boeing Phantom Eye
<strong>Type</strong>: Communications <strong>Description</strong>: Boeing's hydrogen-powered <a href="http://www.boeing.com/Features/2010/07/bds_feat_phantom_eye_07_12_10.html" target="_hplink">Phantom Eye</a> is a High Altitude Long Duration Craft designed to fly at <a href="http://www.boeing.com/Features/2011/11/bds_phantom_eye_11_16_11.html" target="_hplink">65,000 feet for up to four days</a>. <strong>Potential Deployment</strong>: Unknown
<strong>Type</strong>: Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) <strong>Description</strong>: <a href="http://www.darpa.mil/Our_Work/TTO/Programs/Vulture.aspx" target="_hplink">DARPA's description</a> says the "Vulture technology enables a re-taskable, persistent pseudo-satellite capability, in an aircraft package." Basically, DARPA is attempting to develop a super long duration craft capable of five year continuous flight. Think about that - the Vulture is intended to fly for up to five years continuously. If it were to launch this year it would be in the air for two Olympics. <strong>Potential Deployment</strong>: Unknown
AVIATR: Drone To Fly Saturn's Moon
<strong>Type</strong>: Government Funded Space Exploration <strong>Description</strong>: While the proposal probably won't go through for this mission, this is an aerial drone we can really get behind. <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/04/aviatr-probe-proposed-mission-titan_n_1184028.html" target="_hplink">AVIATR</a> would be a long distance drone that would fly the skies of Saturn's moon Titan. <strong>Potential Deployment</strong>: Beyond 2020
Japan Defense Ministry Ball Drone
<strong>Type</strong>: Surveillance (Japan) <strong>Description</strong>: Techcrunch <a href="http://techcrunch.com/2011/10/25/video-japans-defense-ministry-develops-awesome-ball-shaped-drone/" target="_hplink">tells us</a> that the drone can "stand still in mid-air, fly vertically and horizontally through narrow spaces at up to 60km/h, and (which is very cool) keep on moving when it hits the ground or a wall. Thanks to three gyro sensors in its body, the machine can keep also flying even if it's hit by an obstacle." And all for only $1,400. <strong>Potential Deployment</strong>: Undisclosed