Another poll in New York City confirms that Public Advocate Bill de Blasio has surged ahead of rivals and has a chance to win Tuesday's mayoral primary without having to compete in a run-off.
In a final NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll released Sunday evening, de Blasio led the Democratic primary field with 36 percent, a double-digit lead over his nearest rivals that falls just short of the 40 percent threshold necessary to avoid a run-off. Former city comptroller Bill Thompson and city council speaker Christine Quinn were tied for second place at 20 percent. The other candidates -- former Rep. Anthony Weiner (D-N.Y.), city comptroller John Liu, former city council member Sal Albanese and pastor Erick Salgado -- were each beneath 10 percent.
"The surge is real," pollster Lee Miringoff told NBC New York. "Right now [de Blasio’s] within striking distance of 40 percent.”
De Blasio, who as the Wall Street Journal notes, "has staked out the most liberal ground" in the election, has a lead that spans racial and gender divisions. He held a 14-point lead among African Americans over Thompson, the only African American in the race, and a 13-point lead among women over Quinn, the only female candidate. He also led among both those voters who approved and who disapproved of Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s job performance.
He also won a majority of support over each of his closest rivals in two hypothetical run-offs, taking 56 percent to Quinn’s 34 percent, and 50 percent to Thompson’s 38 percent.
The Marist survey also asked voters about the tighter Democratic comptroller’s race, in which former Gov. Eliot Spitzer polled at 47 percent and Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer at 45 percent.
Marist’s previous polling has shown de Blasio with somewhat less support compared to his standing in other outlets’ surveys. Qunnipiac University, which put him at 43 percent last week, will release its final poll on the race on Monday morning.
The Marist poll surveyed 556 likely Democratic primary voters between Sept. 2 and 6, using live telephone interviews.