Donald Trump would lose the Latino vote by a long shot in a presidential election, according to a national poll of Hispanic voters conducted by Bendixen & Amandi and the Tarrance Group on behalf of Univision.
Only 16 percent of those surveyed said they would vote for Trump if the presidential election were held today and he faced Hillary Clinton as a Democratic challenger. That result is well below the 27 percent figure GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney walked away with after the 2016 presidential election. Romney’s performance was the worst among Latino voters by a presidential candidate since Bob Dole’s unsuccessful run in 1996.
Trump’s poor performance likely owes to a recent spate of insulting comments toward Mexican migrants, whom he baselessly portrayed in broad strokes as “rapists” who are “bringing drugs” and “bringing crime,” though he also said “some are good people.” The poll showed that 90 percent of respondents had heard about Trump’s comments.
In an interview with NBC News last week, the billionaire real estate tycoon defended his comments and said that he would win the Latino vote because he would be better than the other candidates at creating jobs.
"If I get the nomination, I'll win the Latino vote," Trump said in the interview. "I will win it because I'll create jobs. Hillary Clinton will not be able to create jobs. Neither is Jeb Bush going to create jobs. I will create jobs and the Latinos will have jobs that they don't have right now, and I will win that vote."
Despite his confidence, Trump is performing terribly among Latino voters, according to the poll. Eighteen months away from the 2016 presidential election, 71 percent of respondents say they have an unfavorable view of him -- a figure 8 points higher than Romney’s unfavorability among Hispanic voters in the final week ahead of the 2012 presidential election, according to polling by Latino Decisions.
Not only are Hispanic voters not enthused about casting a ballot for Trump, they also largely support the decision made by several major companies to stop doing business with him. The new poll found that 74 percent of respondents either strongly or somewhat agreed with the choices by companies including Univision, NBC and Macy’s to end their business relationship with Trump.
While Trump’s comments appear to have turned Hispanic voters against him, there’s a silver lining for the Republican Party. Some 61 percent of respondents said they thought his comments reflected his views alone rather than those of the GOP more generally. Only 14 percent said the comments reflected the views of the Republican Party. Another 18 percent said Trump’s comments represented the views of both the candidate and the party.
The Univision National Hispanic Voter Survey carried out two sets of live phone interviews of 1,400 registered Latino voters from June 12 to June 25 and from July 7 through July 13.