The Voting Rights Act Turned 50 years old this week but polling shows minority voter participation has a way to go. Views on race relations hit a 15-year low. And most Americans say achieving equality remains an ongoing process. This is HuffPollster for Friday, August 7, 2015.
AMERICANS BROADLY SUPPORT VOTING RIGHTS, BUT DIVIDE OVER SPECIFICS - Kathleen Weldon: "The Voting Rights Act, the landmark civil rights legislation that provided federal oversight of voting in states where evidence of minority voter suppression existed, was passed on August 6, 1965. Nearly 50 years later, in 2013, the Supreme Court struck down key provisions at the heart of the law, stating that 'our country has changed.' Public opinion polling on voting rights over the last 75 years show a country united in a desire to see the right to vote protected, but divided in their beliefs about how to achieve that goal -- or whether the goal has already been reached." [HuffPost]
Americans say voting barriers still exist - Joshua Dyck: "But despite the historic legislation intended to right historical inequities in voting access, some Americans still believe there are impediments to participation. They are divided along party and racial lines in their opinions on access and whether that is a greater issue than voter fraud. The center’s research also found that Americans hold a variety of sometimes incongruent attitudes toward campaign finance, including a strong belief that money creates a great deal of inequity and a large resistance to allowing the government to try to address the issue through legal sanctions or publicly funded campaigns. Regarding voter access versus fraud, a narrow margin of all respondents, 51 percent, saw access to voting as a bigger issue than fraud, but the numbers shifted when looking at party affiliation to 78 percent of Democrats who felt access is the greater problem and 22 percent of Republicans….White respondents were more likely to view fraud as a problem (57 percent) than access (43 percent), a 45-point difference from African-Americans surveyed. [UMass-Lowell]
Black voter participation has improved but other minority groups have fallen behind - Bernard L. Flaga: "Exactly how has minority participation in elections changed since the Civil Rights era? African Americans can (and do) vote at far higher rates than they did in the decade before the Voting Rights Act, according to the evidence. But Latino and Asian-American turnout remain so low that our elections may be less representative of the racial/ethnic mix of the country than they were 50 years ago....1. Black turnout and white turnout are about equal in presidential elections today. That’s a dramatic shift from the 1950s and 1960s… 2. Black turnout continues to lag white turnout in midterms, and Latino and Asian turnout is even lower...3. Because such low percentages of Latinos and Asians vote, today’s voters represent our nation’s diversity less accurately than in the 1950s and 1960s." [WashPost]
VIEWS ON RACE-RELATIONS REACH LOWEST POINT IN 15 YEARS - Art Swift: "Americans rate black-white relations much more negatively today than they have at any point in the past 15 years. Currently, 47% say relations between blacks and whites are 'very good' or 'somewhat good,' a steep decline from 70% in 2013. Whites' positive ratings of black-white relations since 2013 have nose-dived by 27 percentage points, from 72% to 45%, while blacks show a smaller but still sizable drop of 15 points, from 66% to 51%.The most likely explanation for the deterioration in Americans' perceptions of the health of black-white relations since 2013 are the multiple widely reported incidents in which black citizens were killed by the actions of white police officers. Several of those incidents sparked protests or riots...the 58% who say a 'solution will eventually be worked out' to improve black-white relations is unchanged from 2013." [Gallup]
Nearly half of black Americans see police treatment of minorities as unfair - Swift: "Black Americans are divided over whether their local police treat racial minorities, including blacks, fairly or unfairly. Fifty-two percent of blacks say local police treat these minorities 'very fairly' or 'fairly,' while 48% say the police act 'unfairly' or 'very unfairly.' In contrast, 73% of national adults, 71% of Hispanics and 78% of whites say the police treat racial minorities fairly....Numerous black Americans have discussed their treatment by police, shining a light on an issue that has been gaining prominence in recent years. This is the first time Gallup has asked this question, so it is not possible to know whether these attitudes have changed from the past. However, prior Gallup research shows that blacks' confidence in police is a bit lower over the past two years, and that more broadly, nonwhites' views of police officers as honest and ethical declined sharply last year." [Gallup]
Half of black people say they've personally experienced unfair police treatment - Jesse J. Holland: "A majority of blacks in the United States — more than 3 out of 5 — say they or a family member have personal experience with being treated unfairly by the police, and their race is the reason. Half of African-American respondents, including 6 in 10 black men, said they personally had been treated unfairly by police because of their race, compared with 3 percent of whites. Another 15 percent said they knew of a family member who had been treated unfairly by the police because of their race.White Americans who live in more diverse communities — where census data show at least 25 percent of the population is non-white — were more likely than other whites to say police in their communities mistreat minorities, 58 percent to 42 percent. And they're more likely to see the police as too quick to use deadly force, 42 percent to 29 percent." [AP]
Americans see a need for change - Pew Research: "Over the past year, there has been a substantial rise in the share of Americans — across racial and ethnic groups — who say the country needs to continue making changes to give blacks equal rights with whites, and a growing number of Americans view racism as a big problem in society.Today, 50 years after the passage of the Voting Rights Act, roughly six-in-ten Americans (59%) say the country needs to continue making changes to achieve racial equality, while 32% say the country has made the changes needed to give blacks equal rights with whites. A year ago — and at previous points in the last six years — public opinion was much more closely divided on this question.Though a substantial racial divide in these views remains, a majority of whites (53%) now say more needs to be done. Last year, just 39% of whites said this. And although large majorities of African Americans have consistently said that changes must continue to be made to achieve racial equality, the share saying this now (86%) is greater than in the past. [Pew Research]
POLLSTERS WORRY THAT FCC CHAIRMAN DOESN'T CARE HOW TCPA RULES WILL IMPACT POLLING - HuffPollster: "Federal Communications Commission Chair Tom Wheeler reaffirmed many pollsters' fears last week that tighter regulations could seriously damage their ability to conduct surveys, making comments that one poll operator characterized as 'cavalier about putting pollsters out of business.' Wheeler voted in June for rules that double down on restrictions on 'autodialing' technology used to reach cell phone users. Pollsters have expressed concern that the new interpretation will lead to less accurate results, higher costs and an increased possibility of lawsuits against survey researchers....Pollsters' greatest concern was further realized last week when news broke that Gallup settled a $12 million class action lawsuit over its alleged violation of the Telephone Consumer Protection Act by using autodialers without expressed prior consent." [HuffPost]
THIS WEEK'S POLLS
-Clinton remains unhindered by scrutiny in the polls and the Republican field remains open. [CBS/NYT]
-The number of Republican primary voters who say they'd consider voting for Trump has doubled. [Fox]
-Democratic voters like Clinton but they also would be satisfied if Bernie Sanders became the nominee. [Politico, Monmouth]
-A new NBC/WSJ survey of the Republican primary finds voters still divided.[NBC/WSJ]
-Hillary Clinton is losing support from white women. [NBC/WSJ]
-Republicans would have preferred to see Fiorina and Perry debate on the main stage instead of Christie and Kasich. [HuffPost]
-More Americans now say they'd be willing to take a pay cut in order to work less. [HuffPost]
-A survey of New Hampshire finds Bernie Sanders closing in on Hillary Clinton. [WMUR/UNH]
- Polls this week continue to show varying results on where Americans stand on the Iran deal. [Politico]
-Chris Christie's approval rating drops to another all-time low. [Rutgers Eagleton]
-Clinton's favorability has fallen back to where it stood in 2007. [Gallup]
-Rubio and Walker are the most favorably viewed Republican candidates among their party. [Gallup]
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THIS WEEK'S 'OUTLIERS' - Links to the best of news at the intersection of polling, politics and political data:
-Nate Cohn contemplates how Donald Trump has kept his position as GOP front runner. [NYT]
-John Sides and David Shore discuss the usefulness of early polls. [WashPost]
-Harry Enten argues that if Biden enters the Democratic presidential primary, he won't hurt Clinton. [538]
-Philip Bump finds that Trump's favorability has improved in recent weeks. [WashPost]
-Eleanor Roosevelt leads as America's choice for the ten dollar bill. [HuffPost]
-The Market Research Association offers pollsters advice on dealing with TCPA rules. [MRA]
CORRECTION: A subhead in an earlier version of this post referred to national polls, but included other polls as well. The header has been fixed to reflect that.