WASHINGTON -- Last October, for the third time in three years, Sen. Rand Paul made the cover of Time magazine. The headline: "The Most Interesting Man in American Politics."
The New York Times Magazine had just put him on the cover that August, with a lot of edgy graphics proclaiming him a "Major Threat" to the Republican establishment.
It made sense, or it seemed to. In the very, very early polls, the Kentucky senator was running neck-and-neck with former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush for the top spot in the GOP's 2016 presidential nomination race. And why not? Rand (everyone calls him by his first name) was nervy, different, rebellious, smart, unpredictable, entertainingly nasty and, at times, riveting.
Well, what a difference a year makes.
If this is the Snapchat election (and a number of candidates are using the app just in case), then Rand Paul is the Snap candidate: He was everywhere for an instant, then all but disappeared.
With his poll numbers failing, can he persuade voters to look again? Is it even wise for him to stay in the race, given that he still has the option of running for re-election to the Senate next year and perhaps should concentrate on that?
His aides and advisers insist that he will stay the presidential course and that he has a plan: to guard his small hoard of cash, fly below the radar until emerging with caucus victories in less-watched states such as Nevada, Minnesota and Kansas, and in his own home state, where he strong-armed GOP officials into holding a special caucus for him.
Perhaps. But the reasons for the decline of the Paul campaign over the last year are adding up. They include the advent of more outrageous, unpredictable outsiders like real estate mogul Donald Trump and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson; the rise of the Islamic State, which made Paul's relative lack of militance feel out of place; and Paul's own departures from libertarian orthodoxy on spending and Senate procedure. His prickly, impatient persona, which made him so fascinating to reporters, hasn't played well on the campaign trail either.
This past week, his campaign's slow leak threatened to turn into a full blowout.
Nationally, Paul's poll numbers have sunk so low that he is in danger of not making the cut for the CNBC presidential debate on Oct. 28. The minimum is 3 percent, which Paul makes only if the network adheres to its promise to "round up" the numbers for those with at least 2.5 percent. (Paul is currently at 2.3 percent or 2.8, depending on which poll aggregator you use.) And of course he can't afford to lose ground in any other new poll.
The money situation is just as dicey. A super PAC that had been backing Paul bailed on him last week, and his own campaign reported that he had collected only $2.5 million in the third quarter of this year -- about two-thirds less than the previous quarter and about one-tenth of what Carson took in.
Around the country, Paul has some well-liked supporters and staffers -- among them Doug Stafford, his national strategist, and Mike Biundo, his guy in New Hampshire and the rest of New England.
New Hampshire, with its "Live Free or Die" motto, should be ideal territory for Paul. "He is really sharp and there are a lot of libertarians here," said Joe McQuaid, who heads the company that runs the state's largest newspaper, The Union-Leader.
On the other hand, McQuaid noted, Trump drew an astonishing crowd of 3,500 to an event in the western part of the state the other day, "and there wasn't even a pumpkin festival there."
Fran Wendelboe, a grassroots GOP organizer in the state who is unaffiliated with any candidate, was less positive about Paul.
"He's running on fumes up here," she said. "Trump is just blowing everything else out, and yes, he has a ground organization. A lot of would-be Rand people are with Trump. And if they aren't with Trump, they seem to be going in the direction of [Texas Sen.] Ted Cruz."
With the situation murky on the presidential campaign trail, Paul and his aides need to worry about their Old Kentucky Home. The current GOP nominee for governor, businessman Matt Bevin (who has feuded with Paul in the past), recently said that, while he wasn't endorsing anyone, his personal favorite for the GOP presidential nomination was … Carson.
The Kentucky GOP did support Paul's desire to hold a separate presidential caucus on March 5, 2016 -- so that he could also run in the May 17 Senate primary -- but there remains the matter of who will pay for what. Paul kicked in $250,000 from his campaign coffers for the special caucus and has agreed to pay more, if necessary. But the state GOP could still be on the hook for hundreds of thousands of dollars, and in no mood to Stand for Rand.
In the general election for his Senate seat in 2016, Paul is likely to face a strong Democratic opponent, probably State Auditor Adam Edelen, a personable, eloquent young pol with rural roots, ties to the University of Kentucky, and good support in metropolitan Louisville.
That might mean that the safer course for Paul would be to drop out of the presidential race and focus on the Senate. His ally of convenience, senior Kentucky Sen. Mitch McConnell, would prefer it. As Senate leader, McConnell has a GOP majority to protect.
But having insisted on a separate presidential caucus next March, Paul can hardly stand down now, or anytime soon. He has to stay in the race until at least early spring.
"Rand is stuck," said Rep. John Yarmuth (D-Ky.), who didn't sound unhappy about that prospect.
So how does Paul make the best of a tough situation? By husbanding his cash (which can be used in the Senate race, if necessary), by focusing on out-of-the-way caucus states, and by hoping that other weak candidates fall by the wayside while Hurricanes Donald and Ben blow over. Stafford, his national strategist, insists that his man has staying power and real appeal.
If that's so, Paul has to show it ASAP, certainly at the CNBC debate, assuming that he has the poll numbers to get there. Otherwise, he could be one Snap away from vanishing altogether.