WASHINGTON -- From April 2015 through Jan. 4, 2016, independent groups spent roughly $99.3 million on ads for the 2016 presidential campaign.
Of that total, just $1.71 million was spent to attack or negatively portray Republican front-runner Donald Trump, according to a Huffington Post analysis of the campaign finance data.
The relative pittance of resources placed behind anti-Trump ads so far is remarkable considering the real estate tycoon's persistent lead atop the Republican primary polls, and the near-universal belief outside his universe of supporters that he'd be a horrific candidate for the Republican Party and a dangerous president. With just weeks to go before voting begins, the numbers illustrate just how ill-prepared fellow candidates were for Trump's rise and staying power, and how cautious they have been in trying to bring him down.
These dynamics could shift leading up to the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary at the beginning of February. An anti-Trump super PAC is currently running radio ads attacking him; those are not reflected in the overall total. And former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush attempted to resuscitate his campaign by presenting himself as the one candidate willing to stand up to Trump, including by putting out a digital ad going after Trump's past statements.
"You got to take on the bully head-on, and that's what I'm doing," he told MSNBC's "Morning Joe" on Tuesday. "Everybody else is in the witness protection program, I've noticed."
Bush’s well-heeled super PAC, meanwhile, has spent $460,000 on direct mail and advertising that negatively mentions Trump, along with Sens. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio. But this counts for less than 1 percent of total reported spending by the pro-Bush juggernaut Right to Rise. (A Republican ad-buying source says that two Bush super PAC ads that were not reported to the Federal Election Commission as opposing Trump had an additional $2.3 million behind them. A third ad contrasting Bush with Trump ran with a $2.2 million buy.)
In short, sustained and substantial anti-Trump spending simply hasn’t materialized, even as several presidential candidates have talked up their willingness to tangle with the bombastic billionaire. A super PAC supporting Ohio Gov. John Kasich grabbed headlines when it unveiled an ad attacking Trump. But that spot appears to have been a digital buy that aired, in part, in Kasich's home state (perhaps to burnish his own credentials). Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) aired ads against Trump as well, but they appeared online.
The largest anti-Trump force so far has been the conservative Club for Growth, which has spent $1.1 million. The group made its big buy in September with an ad featuring an old clip of Trump stating that he mostly identifies as a Democrat. But Trump's standing has only improved since then. Club for Growth went up with a smaller digital buy in December and has continued to produce online videos portraying Trump as a liberal.
Counting campaigns and outside groups, about $17 million has been spent on ads that name Trump, according to figures collected by Kantar Media CMAG. Since Trump's campaign only recently starting running positive ads, it's fair to assume that most of that $17 million is directly negative or briefly mentions Trump's name in a negative light. CMAG estimates that around $171 million has been spent in total on television advertising in the presidential race. Because of the group's data-gathering mechanisms, the $171 million figure includes ads run on local cable, while the $17 million figure does not, meaning that the comparison is apples to oranges. Additionally, there is no currently available total estimate for how much money has been spent on other political activity like direct mail, robocalls or billboards in the 2016 race.
But the larger point is the same: Only a small portion of the total amount of money spent on ads so far has actually been dedicated to going after the candidate leading the polls.
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