Cruz and Sanders appeal to the public by touting a broken government. President Obama’s approval ratings have steadily improved. And ESPN finds that most NFL fans think criticism of Cam Newton is not racially motivated. This is HuffPollster for Thursday, February 4, 2016.
CRUZ AND SANDERS APPEAL TO AMERICANS' BELIEF GOVERNMENT ISN'T WORKING - Frank Newport: "The results of Monday night's Iowa caucuses have brought the very conservative Sen. Ted Cruz and the very liberal Sen. Bernie Sanders more directly into the media spotlight. These two senators are not only from the opposite sides of the aisle but also from the opposite ends of the ideological spectrum. But they very much share one common belief: Congress is broken because it does not operate with the best interests of the people in mind….Congress' job approval is 16%; 34% of Americans are satisfied with our system of government and the way it works (down by half from 15 years ago); dysfunctional government was overall the single most important U.S. problem Americans mentioned throughout 2015; and 32% of Americans have a great deal or fair amount of confidence in the legislative branch of government, within a few percentage points of the lowest reading in Gallup's history of this measure." [Gallup]
OBAMA'S APPROVAL ON THE RISE - While most polling has focused on the upcoming election, President Barack Obama's approval rating has been creeping up. According to HuffPost Pollster’s average, 47 percent of Americans approve of the job he’s doing, up a full 3 points from the beginning of December. Using the chart’s “less smoothing” option -- which means the individual polls have more weight and the average is allowed to change faster -- Obama’s approval rating is up to just over 48 percent. Gallup’s tracking poll shows a distinct bump in ratings after the State of the Union address on January 12 and shows him at 50 percent approval as of February 1. [HuffPost, Gallup, Will Jordan, Jonathan Bernstein]
PARTISAN DIVIDE ON HOW THE NEXT PRESIDENT SHOULD DISCUSS ISLAMIC EXTREMISTS - Pew Research: "Half of Americans say the next president should be careful not to criticize Islam as a whole when speaking about Islamic extremists, while four-in-ten want the next president to speak bluntly about Islamic extremists even if the statements are critical of Islam as a whole. A new Pew Research Center survey finds that blunt talk is preferred by two-thirds of Republicans and those who lean toward the Republican Party (65%), while seven-in-ten Democrats and independents who lean Democratic express the opposite view, saying the next president should speak carefully about Islamic extremism so as not to criticize Islam as a whole." [Pew]
HEROIN PROBLEM NOT CONFINED TO NEW HAMPSHIRE - HuffPollster: "Heroin addiction has joined perennial topics like the economy and foreign policy as a mainstay of the campaign trail this year -- in large part because New Hampshire, one of the states hardest hit by opioid abuse, is a key destination during presidential primary season. But the problem is being felt nationwide. In a new HuffPost/YouGov poll, 49 percent of respondents say heroin use is a very serious national problem, and 87 percent say it's at least a somewhat serious problem. They perceive the issue to be nearly as troubling as gun violence, even if it's not a top personal concern for most of them. About half of those surveyed also say that heroin use is at least as much of issue in their community as it is elsewhere. [HuffPost]
The Huffington Post has teamed up with YouGov to conduct daily opinion polls.You can learn more about this project and take part in YouGov's nationally representative opinion polling.
RELIGIOUS LANDSCAPE HAS REMAINED STEADY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE - Public Religion Research Institute: "Over the last eight years, New Hampshire’s religious landscape has been remarkably stable, with no group experiencing outsized gains or losses since 2007. The religiously unaffiliated make up nearly three in ten (29 percent) New Hampshire residents, roughly similar to their proportion in 2007. Nearly one-quarter (24 percent) of New Hampshire residents are white Catholic, while somewhat fewer identify as white mainline Protestant (17 percent) and white evangelical Protestant (9 percent). Unlike other early primary states, New Hampshire is home to fewer white evangelical Protestants than the U.S. overall (9 percent and 17.3 percent, respectively)." [PRRI]
NFL FANS SAY CAM NEWTON IS CRITICIZED BECAUSE OF PLAYS, NOT RACE - ESPN: "A larger percentage of NFL fans believe that Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton faces criticism because of his actions on the field than because of his race, according to a survey produced for ESPN by Langer Research Associates and released Wednesday. Nearly two out of three fans -- 62 percent -- believe that any criticism of Newton is because of his style of play on the field (63 percent of white fans and 38 percent of black fans). Only 14 percent think it's because of his race. The number of people who think race is part of how Newton is perceived is significantly higher among blacks who responded to the survey -- 34 percent think criticism is racially based, while 38 percent think it's for his flashy style." [ESPN]
Who will win the big game? More from ESPN: “49 percent think the Broncos will win, with 35 percent favoring Carolina.” [ESPN]
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THURSDAY'S 'OUTLIERS' - Links to the best of news at the intersection of polling, politics and political data:
-Voter turnout determined the Iowa caucuses, but not in the way many had expected. [Reason]
-Iowa pollster Ann Selzer discusses why her poll didn't quite get the Republican caucus right. [DMR]
-Christopher Karpowitz and Jeremy Pope say Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders will have a tougher challenges with primaries than caucuses. [WashPost]
-Philip Bump explains in two graphs why Rick Santorum dropped out of the race. [WashPost]
-Pew Research breaks down the religious affiliations of New Hampshire Democrats. [Pew]
-Gallup's job creation index finds that US job creation is hovering just below the record 8-year high. [Gallup]
-Three in five Americans and Canadians expect to see a cure for cancer emerge in their lifetimes. [Harris]
-Americans don't trust the government and banks to handle the economy. [The Atlantic]