As the presumptive GOP nominee, Donald Trump likely will have the chance to show if he can turn blue states red in November -- as he's claimed he can. That might seem implausible, but if the 2016 primary season taught pundits anything, it’s to expect the unexpected.
But many states are considered locked into “blue” and “red” walls. Those walls are considered to be groups of states where one party’s presidential nominee has a strong, if not guaranteed, chance of claiming victory. Since 1992, 19 states have consistently gone to the Democratic candidate, while 13 states have consistently voted for the GOP. (Even though Washington, D.C., isn’t a state, it’s counted as one since it has 3 votes in the Electoral College.)
Blue Wall
California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), Michigan (16), Minnesota (10), New Jersey (14), New York (29), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (20), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (12), Washington D.C. (3), Wisconsin (10)
Red Wall
Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Idaho (4), Kansas (6), Mississippi (6), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Texas (38), Utah (6), Wyoming (3).
This coming election cycle, according to Cook Report, 19 states are considered safe for Republicans and 16 safe for Democrats.
Trump wants to challenge those 16 safe states.
Pundits say he has created an environment that may switch traditional red and blue states. But the changes might not be in the direction Trump wants. It’s still too early for general election polls to be of much use in predicting what actually will happen, but they do provide an early look at how people in the states feel about the candidates.
Utah and Arizona are good examples. In a Dan Jones & Associates/UtahPolicy.com poll last month, Hillary Clinton and Trump were tied at 38 percent, and a recent Arizona survey by the Behavior Research Center showed Clinton up by 7 points. Both states have been Republican strongholds since the 1960s.
Meanwhile, some pundits have argued that Trump may be able to pick up Rust Belt states that traditionally go blue. These states have him down but only narrowly trailing Clinton. According to HuffPost Pollster’s Pennsylvania general election chart, Trump is 8 points behind Clinton. And a Republican hasn’t won the Keystone State since George H.W. Bush took it in 1988.
It's important to note that most of the “walled” states haven’t been closed off forever. Up until the 1992 election, the GOP consistently won the state of California, while West Virginia was a dependable blue state until the 2000 election.
CORRECTION: This article initially said George H.W. Bush won Pennsylvania in 1992; in fact, Bill Clinton won that year.