I learned a magic trick the other day that requires you to show a deck of cards arranged from two through ace in each suit, then through a complex series of cuts, card burns, and top and bottom dealing, you show that you have dealt 7 poker hands: six full houses and a seventh, winning, royal flush.
In order to distract the audience from the "trick" part, and to explain the series of card movements, the dealer tells the legend of a gambler named Big Jack, or Bart, or Felix, who is caught cheating and uses this trick to hold onto his winnings in the gold fields of Alaska, or in Vegas, or in the Black Hole of Calcutta. The details don't matter; the patter is just classic misdirection, the staple tactic of any street magician... or con woman.
Hillary Clinton is spinning her own legend of misdirection, trying to distract America from the fact that she is losing the race to Barack Obama just long enough to pull some political sleight of hand to con the superdelegates into handing her the nomination. Her latest legend of misdirection is that there is a movement afoot to deny democracy to American citizens in two key battleground states.
This is an audience participation trick. Hillary is asking for as many volunteers from the audience as she can get to pull it off. She has a petition on her website that you can "sign" to show your support for seating the Florida and Michigan delegations. It says:
"Florida and Michigan Deserve to be Heard
Millions of people in Florida and Michigan went to the polls to make their voices heard in the Democratic Presidential primary. They deserve to have their votes count. Add your name to show your support for seating the Florida and Michigan delegates at the Democratic National Convention in Denver this August."
Now, who could argue with that? In fact, everyone from Howard Dean to Donna Brazille to Barack Obama himself thinks that the delegations should and will be seated. Every state should have the opportunity to be represented by politicos wearing funny hats, buttons and streamers on national TV. It's Bozo's Circus for grups.
Thus, like any good legend, the magician has you nodding right along: yup, sounds plausible!
The HillaryClinton.com screen provides spaces to enter your name, e-mail, zip code and comment showing your support for a concept that has no opposition. But hitting enter does NOT take you to a "Thank you, Captain Obvious" screen. Rather, you slide down a cyber-rabbit hole to a "Thank you, now give us MONEY" screen. Yes, you'd think that a high-minded appeal to citizen-driven democracy would be able to stand on its own, but no! The implication here is plain: if you REALLY believe in democracy, you'll give Hillary money.
Like that street magician or con woman, Hillary will use the legend to get the coin to jump from your pocket into hers.
No trick can stand too close an examination, however, so let's examine this idea of belief and donations. Clinton is asking people to put their money where their keyboards are and funnel cash to her quixotic campaign to overcome Obama's insurmountable lead in (pick 1) states won, delegates won, popular votes won or funds raised.
But there is a small, niggling little point, a fly in the ointment, a pea under Princess Hillary's mattress that she's hoping you won't notice: Hillary Clinton knows it's a trick. She herself doesn't believe enough in her chances to win to donate to her own cause.
We've heard for several weeks now how the Clinton campaign is in the red. The much-ballyhooed but undocumented $10 million overnight bump she received after Pennsylvania neatly filled in the $10 million hole she was in. But now that it's coming down to the wire, if things were really as close as Hillary says they are, wouldn't another $5 or even $10 million dollar loan of her own cash help to put her over the top?
Rule number one of investing, politics and magic tricks: use other people's money!
This shows that Hillary doesn't think she can win, but that doesn't stop her from playing out the con, just on the off chance that this legend will distract folks just long enough for her to pilfer the nomination. And if this doesn't do it, she'll try another and another and another. Popular votes, electoral math, "Republican rules" - no legend is too far-fetched if Hillary thinks she can distract you with it.
But here are the cold hard unmagical facts of the matter. Barack Obama is only 286 delegates away from securing the nomination , with 408 delegates left to pick in primaries and 280 undeclared superdelegates. In his worst-case scenario, he splits the remaining primaries, which means he'll only need 3 out of every 10 remaining superdelegates to clinch.
Even if she had Penn and Teller working for her (instead of Penn and Wolfson) there's no legend Hillary can spin to make this truth disappear: she can't win.
*Note: This is an updated version of a column Chip Collis wrote last week. He sends thanks to the commenters who corrected his delegate math!
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That's why they are called DONATIONS, and not INVESTMENTS. Clinton Donors: DIG DEEPER and pony up for Obama. He needs your help in the Fall.
Well she needs to pay her tap here in York PA. Here is a link to what the citizens of york have to do to get her out of debt here.
http://www.inyork.com/ci_9176098?source=most_viewed
Fantastic Post !
Great to see such intelligent insight which many of us catch, put into logical format in print !
Clinton is like a zombie dancer in the Thriller video, who"s makeup artists are finding it increasingly difficult to hide the fact that she's a walking corpse...
To continue with your metaphor/analogy:
Sometimes the "tricks" aren't that sophisticated. We've all seen magicians performing at kids' parties--the "magic" works mostly on the kids. Only this time, a lot of voters behave very much like kids at magic parties.
See Olbermann's take on Hillary's moving goal post:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/06/olbermann-slams-clinton-c_n_100336.html
(It's also on msnbc, but buried deep)
I am an Obama supporter and see the outcome of tonight as a win-win situation. Its seems to me that when he looses primary races, the super-delegates come out for him in larger groups with greater frequency. Yet, when he is winning primaries, its seems like it gives the super-delegates the permission slip to sit back and wait until the end of June to announce, meanwhile we pull are hair out with worry!!!
Either way, its looking good for Obama. The news media has had their "against Obama" week, It will flip back soon. It seems like they are simply trying to extend the story line as much as possible for the next 3 weeks (the completion of the primaries).
its seems like even chris matthews is drinking the hillary kool-aid. Nowadats he does nothing on his show but obama bash!
what timing. I just watched David Mamet's House of Games last night " the con movie to end all con movies.
That's the only movie I've ever seen where the surprise plot twist at the end fools me every time I watch it! LOL! Wow, that is a lot like the Clintons and their supporters. Fool me once, shame on you... fool me twice, shame on me... but after that it doesn't really matter any more, just keep fooling me over, and over, and over, and over....
Don't be afraid of them stealing the nomination from him. He is the biggest $$$maker in the history of these primaries, and the DNC is broke. If he loses, they lose. We just hit our goal of 1,500,000 donors a few hours ago. Go to the website and check it out.
As for today, please try to stay optimistic. He was supposed to lose PA by 25 points, and he brought it down to under 10. I firmly believe that if it was an open primary, he could have won, even up against the big Clinton political machine in PA.
The Rev. Wright issue is hurting him some now, but both of the races today are open primaries. He will do much better because of this.
Hopefully, he will win both, but remember even if he doesn't, the supers are still coming out for him and he will get the nomination.
Now,IN and NC, go get 'em.
Thanks lorla, I needed those words.
I have completely stopped watching CNN, never watched Fox, and have cut my viewing down to Keith Olberman. I noticed someone called for a blackout on May 15th of all network and cable shows. Well, mine started after the Wright crap on 24/7.
So, I will keep contributing my measley amount to Obama and hope that the rest of America comes to its senses about the Hillary farce and lies. That includes the insane old coot, as well. I just this morning received a hate email concerning Obama. It just never stops !!
Thanks again for your Hope message....
Sad to say, but your column is right. Nothing ever changes, it stays the same.
The corporate class has taken over this country and there is nothing we can do about it. I keep harking back to that British newspaper who said after the 2004 election, "How can 3 million + be so stupid"? I keep it as a reminder of how gullible the American people are and how the corporate driven media totally eviserates anyone who dares to bring some sanity to politics.
They have had a field day with Wright but have not had a single rant about Hagee, Falwell and Robertson. There has not been an iota of coverage about Hillary's "Family/David Coe association which is scarier by far than anything Wright could say or do. Read Mother Jones' on Family/Coe.
I have written to networks until my fingers get tired and nothing changes. No one undertook my plea to form a network of bloggers whereby we could en masse send a million votes against the media. I get these kind of emails all the time from people with this cause or that cause and I sign them if I'm in agreement.
Hillary may win this by stealing the election and maybe that is not such a bad thing. This country is in such a mess, who would wish these problems on another person. She and McCain are two peas in a pod. Maybe the American people will wake up one of these days.
"This country is in such a mess, who would wish these problems on another person." I feel the same way.
If I had any ambivalence about voting for Obama, that's out of concern that he'd be saddled with, and blamed for, the mess we are in. Part of me wants to see those responsible, the Republicans or Hillary, to deal with the mess--perhaps people will come to see them with more clarity in the process.
However, we are not just dealing with economic issues, but some fundamental questions related to the Constitution (right to privacy, habeas corpus, separation of church and state ... ) that I feel strongly that we should have someone in office who has the basic human decency at least to try to do the right thing.
I don't think Hillary started out necessarily as a bad person, but she is so entrenched in the political system--so much reward and punishment, debt owed and debt to be paid, and pre-determined political agenda lined up that I fear they will quickly take over her administration. And her behavior in recent months have made her an unacceptable option.
I personally know a lot of people who are emotionally involved with Sen. Clinton's quest for the White House. For their sakes, I think it is fine that she stays in the race as long as she wants to. Why quit, just because things are getting more difficult? Nah, let her fight until the very end. It's like the baseball hitter on strike three - one would rather go down swinging than stand there and get a called strike three.
On the other hand, I would personally much prefer it if Sen. Clinton would take the high road as often as possible in this campaign. I have been disappointed numerous times by her inability to show respect, to the other candidates, and to the public's intelligence. She is getting a little better - she is now willing to say that Barack would make a good president, and she finally admits that she made a mistake when she voted to give Bush authority to go to war - but I have to wonder why it took her so long to say things that seem to me to be so obvious. She reminds me a little of a prize fighter who grew up on the wrong side of the tracks, and will do anything and everything when he is in a figtht, even bite off an ear or punch out an eye. I do not criticise her for fighting, but for fighting the way that she does.
The real loss is that Senator Clinton will leave the race in such a way that a generation of voters who really wanted to see a woman win the presidency will feel humiliated and betrayed. Senator Obama will not be able to make up for that and there is a real danger that Senator Clinton does not have the strength and near super-human posture to heal the wounds of her own supporters. She barely could, even if she were the larger than life figure she likes to play. But, honestly, she isn't.
I'm kinda feeling that this will go her way as well with her spins and lies. But is there any possibility that it won't, BUT Obama will be ambushed into selecting her as his VP? And if so, wouldn't that drastically disturb his persona as a man of integrity and character, trying very hard to keep the campaign on a higher plane? Having said that, could we Obamanots still support him. I don't know....HRC is better than a spooky Stephen King movie yet I wouldn't want her participating in decisions, let alone making any, that would effect our country. What is really surprising is how many Americans buy into her bullshit and refuse to acknowledge her serious flaws. I'm so confused....can someone out there give me some direction....I'll take whatever I can get.
I wont if he does
Don't worry. He won't. And she won't either, because if he did, she would know that he would hide her in the closet. Maybe let her cut a ribbon or two, pose with old ladies at fund raisers. But she would never ever get to work on anything vital. This is an in or out game. Just ask Kerry, Gore or Edwards.
Olbermann hilariously summarizes the Clinton campaign's moving goalposts:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L9qd-P2bIiY
Hahah! That was funny.
All I know is,that I have never ever hated anyone the way I hate Hillary Clinton. It's not so much that I'm an Obama supporter. Its the fact that she's such an evil woman.She lies, she cheats and will do anything to win this nomination. To lie to poor strugling families in order to get their votes is about the meanest thing she has done so far,and I could never bring myself to vote for her under any cicumstance.
Great essay! Thank you!
As with magicians, Hillary's theater needs willing participants--people who willingly suspend disbelief and go along because "that's the thing to do."
Hillary cannot successfully play a trick without her audience participating. George Bush could not have gotten us into this war if it wasn't for many Americans wanting to believe what he had said about weapons of mass destruction.
The moral is: Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice ... then you can fool me over and over again. (How does it go again?)
I unfortunately do not have the optimistic viewpoint that her sleight of hand will fail. I am in the process of bracing myself for an irrevocable jolt to the Democratic Party in the form of Clinton literally yanking the nomination out of Obama's hands. I can't explain the anger and frustration I feel when I consider such a scenario, but as each day goes by and we witness more and more the evidence of the dummification of American society, I can't help but feel that Obama, his supporters and (most unfortunately) the Democratic Party will get the shaft. As another HuffPost blogger wrote fairly recently, it's going to be Hillary flipping the bird to the rest of the Party.
You may be right. She is totally practical--she would have left if she didn't know she could engineer a victory somehow. That is why she was so smug before Iowa--it was a done deal for her. The Clintons and her supporters really can't stand the fact that anyone, much less a huge number, voted for somebody else than Clinton. That's what gotten them off their track. The six weeks before Pa. primary gave them an opportunity to re-group (whatever that involves--and meeting with voters was a minor bit).
I'm afraid you are right.
What is equally disturbing is that the dirty tricks we are seeing may just be the tip of the iceberg. Who knows what has and will go on to force the superdelegates' hands.
Hillary reminds me of the old axiom, "Figures don't lie, but liars figure". This, of course, used to refer to salespeople, but it has expanded its realm.
Said this before, i'll say it again...
The Clintons will steal it somehow. They'll game it, and welcome to another illegitimate presidency... either that or 4 more years of insanity with McCain.
"Hillary Clinton knows it's a trick. She herself doesn't believe enough in her chances to win to donate to her own cause. We've heard for several weeks now how the Clinton campaign is in the red."
Poor people who back a definitely losing horse with their hard-earned money. She is a swindler! Yet she said she understands their pain and wants to give them $30 (of course not from her own hundred million$)!
Don't be so quick to write Clinton off. She will be at her most dangerous when she KNOWS she CANNOT win.......
She keeps her audience captivated, though. Although, at this point it seems that the only part of the audience enjoying itself are the Republicans who are being handed four more years on a silver platter.
lol. thanks for the great analysis. it's not impossible, but highly improbable. bye Hill!
she has lost the game. no illusions.
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Posted May 5, 2008 | 04:16 PM (EST)