Don't expect to find out very soon WHO will be the running mates for Obama or McCain, unless...
Will Barack choose Hillary to be his running mate, or Ohio Governor Ted Strickland, or NM Gov Bill Richardson, AZ Gov Janet Napolitano or less likely but talked about potential match-ups Chuck Hagel or Sam Nunn?
Will Joe Lieberman run with McCain... or Condi Rice, or Mitt Romney , TX senator Kay Bailey Hutchison or Maine senator Susan Collins?
It is highly likely that we will not find out for a lonnnggg time, even though the mainstream media are working the story for the drama it contains, with the built up enmity between Barack or, purportedly, Michelle and Hillary.
The thing is, both campaigns have good reason to wait as long as possible before making a decision. If either campaign chooses a female VP running mate, it puts pressure on the other to do the same.
McCain, with his party's convention held later, definitely has an advantage on this. It is highly likely that Obama will decide first. Once Obama makes his decision, the McCain campaign will be able to choose a VP who can potentially neutralize the Obama ticket demographically.
It is more likely that McCain will go with a white female than a black. The Republican base -- those former southern democrats who left the party after LBJ signed the equal rights amendment -- would have a very hard time dealing with a black. (Yes. I think that too many of them are racists.) That probably rules out Condi. It might put senators Kay Bailey Hutchison (TC) or Susan Collins (ME) or CT governor M. Jodi Rell in play.
The 2008 Democratic National convention runs August 25-28, after the summer Olympics have ended. That's when we'll find out who will be the Democratic Vice presidential candidate and not before.
The 2008 Republican National convention runs September 1-4. That's when McCain will announce his pick, with the advantage of knowing who Obama has chosen.
One thing is highly likely-- if Obama picks a female, whether Hillary or not, McCain will almost be forced to include one on his ticket.
Another thing that's sure is the networks, anchors and pundits will burn up millions of dollars worth of airtime discussing who the VPs will be. They'll interview possible candidates. They'll unsuccessfully ask the presidential candidates and their surrogates. But this year, we won't get an answer until late August, unless... Obama and Hillary decide to kiss and make up. Then, it is likely that, to maximize the healing, the announcement will come early on.
Once Obama makes his choice, McCain will want to announce his ASAP, to maximize his momentum.
But the other possibility is that Hillary will wait, that she'll sandbag the Democratic party, refusing to concede defeat, even after Obama attains the requisite number of delegates, hoping that something will happen that costs Obama the nomination
That's the scenario I think is most likely, which puts us back into late August to see the VP selections revealed. It's going to be a long, (pundit) hot-air summer.
Want to play around with potential VP candidates? Here's a website that let's you select criteria like red/blue state, religion, gender, area of the US, experience and then you see who comes up.
crossposted from OpEdNews.com
Want to reply to a comment? Hint: Click "Reply" at the bottom of the comment; after being approved your comment will appear directly underneath the comment you replied to
Please, John......choose Joe Lieberman and take that smug, disgraceful traitor off our hands. Pretty please. He's going to lose his committee chair in November anyway; we'd just as soon see that "I" turn to "R".
Quayle, Lieberman. Some VP choices either sink a candidacy or harm it. Please Obama, think it over. If Gore had chosen a better VP, he might have won.
Very true. Lieberman has always been a big enemy of Hollywood, one of the Dems' best sources of support and enthusiasm. Hollywood gave only lukewarm support to Gore/Lieberman. Full support from Hollywood could have easily made a difference.
If Gore had chosen a better running mate, the world would most likely be a much better place today.
(Admittedly, Lieberman was just one of many mistakes that could have turned the election.)
There's a new story floating around that Huckabee is McCain's top choice. But of course, he'll wait for Obama to make his pick before setting on someone. And no doubt, Obama's choice will influence who McCain picks. Assuming Hillary drops out after June 3rd, Obama will be under pressure to offer her the VP spot. I seriously doubt (and hope) he will. If he does, it won't happen early. He will wait until the last possible minute, when he's convinced that there's no other candidate who would heal the rift or appeal to Hillary supporters. Another reason to wait is to see if her supporters get over her loss and decide to accept Obama. That'll take time, but we have plenty of it til August. If he does pick Hillary or some other female candidate, that might force McCain to pick one as well. Condi comes with too much baggage. She ties McCain to Bush even more. Plus, many Republicans may not want to a black on the ticket. It would also prevent the GOP from appealing to voters' racism to defeat Obama. So if it's a woman, she'll be white.
My VP list:
#1--Howard Dean (yeah, I know, fat chance)
#2--Senator Jim Webb (fairly likely)
#3--Bill Richardson (although I think he's a natural for Sec Of State)
Oh, and you forgot that since our elections are rigged now, it doesn't matter.
Obama should pick Sebelius. She is strong on the economy/education. She is Catholic and her father was governor of Ohio.
I was for Hillary when all this started.
Thru the Primary's I have listened.
I know in my own heart thru her actions and words who Hillary really is.
I have listened to Barack and thru his actions and words I have become a Barack believer.
I have faith that he will pick the right person.
Whomever that person is. He will make the right choice.
I have faith it won't be Hillary.
Clark or Edwards seem the best choices to me. Clark would be an olive branch to the Clinton camp, and counteract McCain's militaristic appeal. Edwards has wisely refused to endorse, and plays well to the white working-class crowd Obama struggles with.
Side note: what's with people suggesting Rice as McCain's VP? Republicans need independants too, and she certainly isn't getting them on board, not to mention, sadly, that she'd probably put West Virginia back into contention.
Even if McCain picked Rice, she wouldn't draw the black vote away from Obama. And any woman who supported Hillary who switched to McCain because of a woman VP never supported Hillary, just the Idea of a woman in power rather than a man, In other words, they're sexists.
Not to mention that she oversaw the most disastrous foreign policy of any president in decades, maybe ever.
The Gov of Ohio as VP probably makes the most political sense for Obama.
Sen Webb of Virginia would be a good choice as well - he has Dept of Defense credentials.
McCain might as well go with Condi Rice - he could tout this as change. And if he wins, the Black Congressional Caucus could always send a steady stream of blonde lobbysts to the White House in hopes of McCain either suffering a heart attack or getting killed by his wife...
People, Barack won't choose Chuck Hagel. Hagel would be run out of our party if he did that. Besides, do you realize how many Dems would be ticked off at Barack if he passed up someone like Eddie Rendell for a Republican from the prairie?
Don't be stupid.
Ed Rendell?
He'll lease Arlington National Cemetery to Forest Lawn, and raze the Lincoln Memorial for space to build a casino.
Fast Eddie is all about the revenue stream.
Obama is almost certain to pick Jimmy Webb. Helps him get Virginia, plus Webb has combat experience.
I actually believe that McCain will gravitate back to Condi. Rice is popular with the Republican rank and file. We know that the Democratic base hates her, but that just helps McCain with his choice. She's popular among independents and helps McCain pass the "Dick Cheney" test for VP's.
He can't afford to pick an unknown lightweight just because the Movement Conservatives want him to Get Right with the Base. This is not that kind of election. Especially after last night's loss in MS-01 (Thank you, A$$-Clown RNC! Take a bow, clueless John Boehner!).
McCain is the one who has nothing to lose in this cycle. He'll be 20 points down going into his convention, which will be right after Obama's Acceptance speech. It's going to be ugly. He'll need to throw the long ball. That's Condi.
I like the idea of Hagel as Obama's VP
boy.. i have to agree.. i think HAGEL wud be and excellent choice..
Please no more Clintons or Doles or Bushes or Kennedys. We elect people once. Does this mean we have to elect the name over and over again?
Is there evidence that they do much good for the average voter?
Just when it was Roosevelt.
My choices in order of preference:
Jim Webb
Kathleen Sebelius
Bill Richardson
Wesley Clark
Ted Strickland
Lots of other good ones out there too, like Brian Schweitzer, Sherrod Brown, Russ Feingold, Janet Napolitano, Bob Graham.
Just don't pick Sam Nunn -- too conservative, too corporate, too establishment, has no natural voting constituency -- and don't pick Evan Bayh -- too DLC. And don't pick Hillary and have to spend the next eight years wondering what she's doing to undermine the president.
RE: Graham and Webb. Graham is too old (71) and has had health issues in the past couple of years, right? Webb only barely won VA. Plus, his Senate seat is even more junior than Obama's. But the problem with them both is that Obama has already got a lock on the "right on the war" issue. He'll need someone that can bring other strengths to the table (i.e., executive or diplomatic).
RE: Wesley Clark. Ain't gonna happen. He's in the tank with Clinton (and I'm sure expecting to be her VP or SecDef).
If he wants to guarantee his heading to the oval office rather than a senate seat in the fall, he and clinton will embrace each other and win. Without each other and the powerful following they have, the presidency will go to McBush.
I sort of agree. I know it'll make Kennedy/Johnson look like BFFs by comparison, but it might have to be the most tactical choice. There'll need to be a LOT of fence mending for this to happen though.
The best out of the BOX blow your mind VP choice for Obama is BILL CLINTON for VP. Checkmate.
Ted Strickland? The man looked like his head was going to explode in one of the network appearances I saw him in. He's 100% Clintonista, so why would he in any way be considered a viable VP for Obama?
If only John Edwards would/could be nominated life would be good. 8 years of Obama and then he can pass the torch to Edwards. Who knows, maybe 16 years of honest government might restore the US as a real and compassionate superpower...
Bob Graham is the best call for Obama. Graham sat on the intelligence committee and knows the details of how the information was a faked in the Iraq war buildup. He opposed Bush. He is respected in Forida. He is a good balance on the ticket. Send me an Obama-Graham.
How about General Fallen for VP, or at defense.
I voted for Obama and donated to his campain, but if he picks Hillary as the VP I will lose all respect for him and probably just stay at home. There are so many people who would make a great VP why in the world would anyone want to bring her onboard and then spend the next four years watching your back!
I also voted for Obama and have donated to his campaign. If he is bamboozed into picking the Clinton female (of course it will be Hillary & Bill) I will not vote for him nor will I give to his campaign. There are too many other qualified persons to be VP. After all the negative things that Hillary and Bill said about Barack, there is not way that the true Americans can forgive that. She is a racist at heart as well as her husband. Of course they gave Blacks some important positions, why? because they needed them to reach their goal and nothing more. Bill has probably told Hillary are you going to let that Black guy beat you? He probably used the N-word instead of Black. I do not like her and know that she is not good for this world and can't believe that she has the interest of the United States at heart. The only interest that she has is to become Ms. President with Bill telling her what to do.
Mr. K. --
I agree with your assertion that the Clintons will sandbag the Dems, holding out on the slim hope that Obama will be done-in by some left-field "gotcha!" scandal. But there's more.
Bill Clinton -- ever the conniver-in-chief, always has a Plan B, and C. Here's how I think it will play out:
Plan B -- the Voteboth/Hillary ilk will threaten mayhem and destruction if she's not the VP pick, so the Dems cave and give her the nod. Both Hilalry and Bill proceed to sabotage Obama's chances -- on the sly, of course -- which will, in turn, boost her chances for the 2012 nomination.
Plan C -- Hillary is denied the VP slot, she and Bill campaign half-heartedly for the Dems, all the while laying the groundwork for their 2012 bid. They'll continue their race-baiting and fear-mongering, which will help McSame sneak in via the backdoor of the WH, and thus, set-up their match-up with him.
Any way you slice it, the Clintons are not going away. They're narcissists and they absolutely will not be run out of the media spotlight -- they are in it until death -- literally.
Nope, she will not publicly sandbag the Dems. Otherwise, there would go her chances of being Majority Leader.
However, lots of negative stuff that we don't know about Barack will be forwarded by Bubba's people to anonymous 527's that have nothing whatsoever to do with the McCain campaign. Also, look for strange stories about Barack and Michelle's marital life to start appearing on the cover of the National Enquirer during the fall campaign. People pass these covers while they're in the checkout line.
You didn't know that the people who control the Enquirer are good friends of the Clintons, did you?
Now you know.
Great post. Thanks.
For now I like Webb. He could help bring Va. plus, he has a couple favorables...he has a military background (also, his son has been to Iraq) and can connect w/ a constituency in Va., WVa, Pa., rural Ohio. I did hear that he's doesn't particularly like campaigning so, I'm not sure if he has a true passion to run a national campaign and all the it entails.
I do like Chuck Hagel too. He would represent a true change and highlight Obama's willingness to "reach across the aisle" to repair the damage Bush has done to this country.
Webb's too much of a firecracker. I like him, but don't know if he'll play well on the national stage. Plus he only barely won VA, right?
We Virginians need for Senator Webb to stay in the Senate. In fact, we should not remove ANY Democratic Senator from THIS Senate for a V-P slot. We will need all hands on deck.
VP choices have often been to give geographic or political balance to the Presidential nominee. Most important is someone who can be President if the worst happens.
I don't think HRC will be the VP choice for Obama as he needs a balance that she doesn't really offer. To me, best for Obama would be a white male, preferably from the southeast or west, a current or recent governor, with some DC experience. Then too he may need to bring in a more politicaly moderate person as VP and from a swing state. Some have suggested Richardson, but more likely he would be the Sec. of State due to his foreign policy expeience. I think Obama will hold out his choice, making a long and carefully made decision for the best of the party and to win.
As to McCain, I wouldn't be surprised if he chose a woman as VP, preferably someone a bit more to the center but for some critical areas (pro-life for example).
Nicely done Rob, good to see you outside of Opednews.
I think it'll be Bill Richardson or Wes Clark. Although, I would be interested in seeing Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer get it.
I think McCain will make a bad pick. Somebody like Lieberman who the status quo media would like, but would add nothing to his ticket and make hard Right Republicans hate the guy even more.
Loading comments…
Posted May 13, 2008 | 10:03 PM (EST)