Obama Will Crush McCain

Hillary's supporters will vote for Barack Obama and his running mate. Disaffected Republicans will join the vote for change. Even Hillary's goons like James Carville and Paul Begala will try and jump on the Democratic bullet train because it is hurtling toward the White House this fall.
Hillary cost herself the vice presidential slot, and Bill a cabinet position, when they broke the unwritten rule which discourages candidates from blemishing the other "brand names" in their parties. The Clintons, and Carville, clearly never cared but their attacks alienated the superdelegates upset at how they persisted in providing negative sound bytes against Obama for John McCain's campaign this fall.

But that does not matter any longer. The rich and interesting Democratic primary season is no longer changing the subject. The Republicans are finished this fall, buried along with the President and his 28% approval rating. Here is why McCain is in free fall:

1. McCain is McBush and Bush has an approval rating of 28%. In a country that has been roughly 50-50 in the last two Presidential contests, that means that 22% of those who voted Republican are likely to stay at home or vote for the Democrats. If so, that's a landslide for Obama.

2. McCain is having trouble getting the support of the religious crazies in his party and as he panders to them, he alienates the independent, or secular, voters he needs to win.

3. McCain is having trouble getting money from Republican-Bush donors because they know the Party's over for awhile. As he panders and leans on Bush for money, he alienates the independents.

4. Cindy McCain. Her abject refusal to publish her financial net worth, or income levels, is totally unacceptable for the wife of a Presidential candidate. Even John Kerry's wife disclosed information.

5. John McCain's health, not his age. He has Stage 2a melanoma in his declining years and has refused to disclose his current medical condition or records. This is a condition which must be checked constantly.

Besides those impediments, the numbers simply don't add up for the Republicans. The 2004 election was a 50-50 split. John Kerry came one state and only 100,000 votes shy of beating George Bush. And that was before the truth came out about the Iraq war -- that the "intel" was "sexed up" somewhere mid-Atlantic.

So far this year the total who have voted in Democratic primaries (most of which were restricted from Republicans voting) already represents 60% of the total of all voters who voted in 2004. Put another way, it means the Democrats will get 60% of the vote this fall.

Already national polls are showing Obama between 5% and 7% ahead of McCain. Democrats will and must stick together and Hillary will be placed in Coventry, along with Bill, where they cannot continue to harm the presumptive candidate Barack Obama.

Comments

[ScroogeandMarleyLLC]

Sorry, but even though Obama is a charming fella and makes a convincing, kick-ass speech, McCain has within his legions two very determined, powerful armies:

1. The 2nd Ammendment crowd.

2. All them myriad inconvenient working stiffs who see Obama as elitist, or, worse, black.

It ain't gonna be no cake walk.

[edhillfiker]

Obama's own words, buried by the media and his robotic followers. You can't argue with words because they do matter.

Quotes from the Audacity of Hope, from the 'Great Unifier" Barack Obama. Want to know him, read his book. Of course, that's asking a bit, isn't it?

From Audacity of Hope: 'I will stand with the Muslims should the political winds shift in an ugly direction.'

From Dreams of My Father: 'I ceased to advertise my mother's race at the age of 12 or 13, when I began to suspect that by doing so I was ingratiating myself to whites.'

From Dreams of My Father : 'I found a solace in nursing a pervasive sense of grievance and animosity against my mothers race.'

From Dreams of My Father: 'There was something about him that made me wary, a little too sure of himself, maybe. And white.'

From Dreams of My Father: ; 'It remained necessary to prove which side you were on, to show your loyalty to the black masses, to strike out and name names.'

From Dreams of My Father: 'I never emulate white men and brown men whose fates didn't speak to my own. It was into my father's image, the black man, son of Africa , that I'd packed all the attributes I sought in myself, the attributes of Martin and Malcolm, DuBois and Mandela.'

[Sumocat]

You paint a pretty picture, Diane, but I see your points as signs this will be a hard fight.

1. Bush has a 28% approval rating. Sounds low, until you consider the man hasn't done anything worthwhile. With no accomplishments under his belt, the man still has 28% of the populace approving of his non-performance. This is his solid quarter. Considering half of people don't vote, this block should be a big worry.

2. The religious crazies love Bush. McCain doesn't need to win their support; he just needs Bush's. Remember, the crazies are the ones who believe the rapture will come... this year... every year. They will do as Bush does.

3. Bush is a money-making machine. Once Bush steps in, McCain's money woes will be a thing of the past. Plus, I think McCain's wife knows some rich people.

4. Cindy McCain. She's rich, attractive, has access lots of beer, and unlike Kerry's wife, won't scare off blue-collar voters with her accent. I don't think she'll be a detriment when it comes to attracting the NASCAR crowd.

5. John McCain's health and age are problems... that can be fixed with a good running mate. These are literally his biggest weaknesses, but he can offset voters' worries with the right VP. This is the choice that could make or break his campaign and disprove your prediction. I think Obama is capable of steamrolling McCain, but I don't think we've seen enough to assume that yet.

[Cyndee1113]

Sumocat , I see your rationale but I think Obama can do it.

[Sumocat]

Don't get me wrong. I think Obama will win, but I wouldn't claim a "crushing" win just yet.

BTW, here's some new support for my #3.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/19/rnc-will-fund-mccains-cam_n_102398.html

[fletc3her]

I can't understand how Hillary Clinton has been slighted by the Democratic party. We're here in the last couple weeks of the primary season and she's still in the race. However, she is not going to come out of the race with more delegates than Barack Obama. How she decides to handle the end game is up to her, but I can't imagine why the Democratic party would decide to give the candidate who came out of the primary with fewer delegates the nomination. If there were three viable candidates then it would be a different story.

[oldpotsmuggler]

Reason No. 6: In the prelims, it's Dems 3, Reps 0.

There have been three special elections this year for open Congressional seats, all of them previously hed by Republics, and the Democratic candidate has prevailed in all of them. Those incumbent Republics who are bailing out of Congress like rats leaving a sinking ship are pretty sophisticated and they are clearly betting on there side taking a good old fashioned beating this time around.

It's the only thing that we can be grateful to BUSHCO for, and it was far too high a price to pay even for putting the government back into Democratic hands.

[ThirdSection]

Diane, I must salute you for your optimism, but I remember how confident we all were that Bush would lose in '04. True, Obama has way more going for him than Kerry did, but so does Hillary, and so does McCain for that matter. But Obama has a lot more going for him than any of his opponents do, though I cannot be trusted to say this with partiality because I'm a fervent Obama supporter.

I think we should err on the side of caution this time. We can't assume that Clinton's supporters will line up behind Obama simply because they're Democrats. We must court them as swing voters. We need to dote on them and do what we can to allay any fears they may have, regardless of how irrational they may be. If you saw Jon Stewart's coverage of the West Virginia primaries, you know exactly what I'm talking about.

However, this is what Barack Obama has going for him. His message is all positive. His goal is to reach across the aisle and unite us all, however that aisle may divide us, be it political affiliation, religion, gender, or race.

Yes, Obama will win, but the fight for that victory has not yet begun.

***ThirdSection is a low-income white male from rural Colorado who sends Barack $10 checks on occasion.***

[kcjc]

What you seem to forget is alot of voters will vote for Senator McCain if there is a perception that Senator Clinton is in any way mistreated by the party. There are already rumblings about a movement to back Senator McCain because of the way she is being treated. I will not vote for Senator Obama because of his long relationship with wright. There is something inherently wrong with someone who listens and finances ramblings about the government in a church setting. What about the impressionable youth of that congregation? As a parent, I know that by sitting there, my children would feel as though I condoned those messages. Imagine the impact of a US Senator sitting there. Not good. Bad judgement. I could give you five very easy reasons Senator Obama is not the right candidate beginning with the fact that while representing the government of the US he sat listening and supporting wright! That's wrong.

[GinnyinCO]

There are plenty of Catholic priests and evangelical ministers who have been preaching politics from their pulpits for decades. Some should have lost their tax exempt status.

Go to the church web site and listen to the REPRESENTATIVE sermons, as opposed to the one that was constantly used for clips- GIVEN THE SUNDAY AFTER 9/11. The 'chickens coming home to roost' comment he had heard from an American Ambassador that week on TV. I'm an atheist who can get very torqued about the hypocrisy preached from the pulpit compared to what I consider the beautiful message Jesus taught (which I agree with). Wright is a wonderful preacher.

9/11 changed a lot of us. Barack was in DC starting Jan '05 and may not have heard enough sermons to identify a trend. Wright's more radical comments at the speaking engagements last month could be the result of being retired and not being in his pulpit.

You need to pursue some reading on what our government has covertly done before and since Iraq. Try Stephen Kinzer's "Overthrow'. I am happy that Barack heard some of this and understands exactly what Wright meant. The last thing I want is the next president lying to us about what our military or intelligence forces are covertly doing in another country. I certainly don't want someone blabbing about obliterating another country or putting up yet another nuclear umbrella when there are enough nukes in Israel to wipe the region off the earth..

[Desiderata]

Oh, and that flag pin thing. And, oh, that muslim-sounding name. And, oh, what ever else I can pretend to cling too as a reason not to vote for that black guy....

[SeriousBlack]

Sorry - Unless I'm really really wrong (and it's happened before), he will NOT "crush" McCain. All the reasons Ms. Francis cites, and many other reasons why he WILL in fact win, may be good and accurate observations.

So I am very confident that he will in fact win. However, don't underestimate the strength of the many factors and factions that are working against him. IMHO they will make the race against even as terrible a Republican candidate as McCain, and even the almost universal negative-for-the-Republicans conditions that exist (Iraq, Bush, the economy yadda yadda yadda), still a close one.

All one has to do is to remember that this country as a whole was (trying to come up with an appropriate word...) OK, I give up -- effed up enough to vote George W. Bush into office TWICE, to put some clear-eyed dampers on even the very good points that Ms. Francis makes.

[MPeter]

What a beautiful article. Thanks Diane. Your article is music to my ears. Bill and Hillary belong to the Convent together. Good stuff.