Even as Clinton Wins West Virginia, Obama's Magic Number Drops to 143 Delegates -- His Political Stock Rises on News from Mississippi

Hillary Clinton won an overwhelming victory in West Virginia's Primary last night. But that victory in the heart of her demographic base did nothing to change the fact that the party's nominee will be Barack Obama.

Obama added at least seven new pledged delegates in West Virginia, brining his magic number to clinch the nomination down to 143. After his victory in North Carolina and virtual tie in Indiana, Obama needed 183 more delegates to cross the 2025 majority set by DNC rules. Since then he has gained 40 delegates and now leads Clinton in super delegates by 12 according to RealClearPolitics.com.

Several other key developments:

* Obama now needs only 17 additional pledged delegates to have an absolute majority of all pledged delegates. He will pass that mark next Tuesday when 103 delegates are at stake in Oregon and Kentucky. At that point many additional super delegates have indicated they will declare for Obama. By this time next week, Obama's magic number will be well into the double digits. It is likely that he will clinch the nomination by the end of the month. It is almost certain he will do so within days of the final primaries on June 3rd.

* While Clinton's win in West Virginia was impressive it should be placed into context. West Virginia is populated with a high percentage of older, non-college, white voters -- Clinton's strongest base of support. The impact of her overwhelming victory there is limited by the state's small size. It is the 13th smallest state -- only slightly larger than Idaho -- and represents .6% of the nation's population. That's why it has only 28 delegates, compared to North Carolina's 115.

* When it comes to blow outs, Obama has won 21 contests by more than 20% -- Clinton only 3 (West Virginia, Oklahoma and Arkansas).

* Even if Clinton were to win 65% of the 189 remaining pledged delegates (which she has no chance of doing), Obama would only need one of every three super delegates remaining today. In fact of course, he actually leads Clinton both in overall super delegates and number of super delegates he has picked up in each of the weeks since Super Tuesday.

* While West Virginia was another reminder that Clinton does has more appeal than Obama among lower income whites, the Washington Post/ABC Poll released yesterday shows how much that is offset by his much greater strength among the independent voters who will mainly decide the fall presidential race. The poll showed Obama leading McCain with this key group by nine points -- 51% to 42%. Clinton led McCain by only 3 points, 49% to 46%.

* The best news for Obama last night came from Mississippi. Democrat Travis Childers victory in Mississippi's first district special election demonstrated conclusively the ineffectiveness of Republican attempts to make Obama a negative for Democratic house candidates.

President Bush won the first district by 25% in 2004. The former Republican incumbent (Roger Wicker) won reelection in 2006 by 66%. Yet Childers won with a healthy 54% to 46% victory -- even after the National Republican Campaign Committee devoted almost $1.3 million of its scarce dollars trying to "tie" Childers to Obama.

It had tried the same tact in Louisiana where Democrat Don Cazayoux was also successful in taking a seat that had been in Republican hands for 3 decades.

And earlier this year, when Democrat Bill Foster won an Illinois special election to succeed retiring former Republican Speaker Dennis Hastert, he recruited Obama to make his closing pitch in a TV commercial.

As much as they wish it were true, Obama will not hurt Democratic candidates in down ballot races -- even in very conservative districts. In fact in many cases just the opposite is true. By mobilizing huge numbers of young people and African American voters in November, he will make it more likely that Democrats take an increasing number of Congressional seats in former Republican strongholds - especially in the South.

My apartment in Washington is next door to the Republican National Committee. As I walked by this morning, I could almost feel the whole place quaking in its boots.

Robert Creamer is a long time political organizer and strategist and author of the recent book: Stand Up Straight. How Progressives Can Win, available on Amazon.com.

Comments

[Sebastian11]

There are two kinds of Hillary supporters. sincere ones, and Obama haters. The sincere ones are in turn divided into two categories, the ones that admit that Hillary's nomination chances are over, and the diehard ones, who are expecting a miracle. The Obama haters are not even Democrats. They are using Hillary's candidacy as an excuse to spread their hatred for the Illinois Senator. They are really Republicans who think that McCain would have a better chance against Hillary. It goes without saying that McCain does not have a chance to do Bush's third term, against anybody.
As for Hillary making a big deal of her West Virginia win, should forget it. Now that Obama got the support of John Edwards and 12 more super delegates, she is finished.

[mjc]

Why would you assume that the "Obama haters" are not Democrats? That's just crap. Most of us opposed to Obama are opposed to him not because we hate him but because he is so unsuited for the job of being a president and because he represents only a segment of the Democratic base, mostly black and some intellectuals. He doesn't stand much of a chance of taking the national election, no matter what he tells us or his campaign tells us. The problems he is has with the Democratic base was never more obvious than the stinging defeat in West Virginia. But that isn't acknowledged. That arrogance for you.

[SethBullock]

He stands a hell of a lot better chance than anyone else. He's certainly not as unelectable as Clinton. He outdraws her among independents, beats McCain by more in more states, and doesn't have the high negatives or the hideously corrupt history the Clintons do.

[mjc]

There is no evidence that Obama has more independent support than Hillary and there is evidence that McCain probably has more than both in SOME states, especially in the Mid-West. While white males and females are on the decline ethnicity-wise in many of the big cities, there are still an awful lot of them out there, again, especially in the Mid-West and in the Far West and perhaps in areas of the Southwest where retirees like to go. That fact and the loose lips of Obama, in re Hamas, etcetera, will sink Obama's ship in a general election.

[julianne]

West Virgina? Isn't that where they blowup the mountantops to get to the coal and the Big Man tells everyone what to do next? Isn't that where all the Big Men have a secret and live on a hil and, maybe, my son or daughter will work for the Big Man, too? You know, the other day, the Big Man brought me a glass of water. Isn't that the place you have to stay put and work in the mine " because that's all we've ever known for all these years, etc.?" If you finish high school and don't immediately go to the bus station and leave West Virginia, then you deserve everything that you get.

[15delta]

A couple questions?
1. How in the world can the Democrats ever win when they can't even organize all of our states to vote and be counted?
2. How can the Democrats ever win when people like Ed Schultz claims to be a Democrat and constantly put Hillary down. I mean every day for three hours.
Yes, he may have a bone, but while people like myself are trying to push the Demacratic Party, while this dude is crucifying the party? Why don"t he just call the person he hates?
3. And finally I think that is dirty pool when people like Edwards leaves his name on the ballot in West Virginia so Hillary can't get the votes and then within 24 hours endorses Obama?
As a combat vet, I have never seen so many back stabbing persons on the same side destroying there chance to take over Washington.
Yes, I have changed now.
I am an independent for the first time in 30 years.

[knighthowl]

Not to mention the backstabber who left her name on the ballot in Michigan, signed an agreement that those votes would not count, and now insists that only hers be counted.

[BubbaC33]

In MIchigan Edwards and Obama instructed their supporters to vote uncommitted, to make certain they voted. Yet Ms. Clinton was able to garner more votes than the instructed supporters of Edwards and Obama cast in Michigan.
In Florida the primary was moved by the GOP legislature and the Republican governor, not the state Democratic Party. What Obama and his supporters are doing is allowing the GOP in Florida to decide which votes count. If in 2012 35 states had GOP controlled legislatures and GOP governors and in every one of those states the primary was moved outside the parameters set by the DNC we could see the Democratic nominee selected by the voters of 15 states, perhaps ones that were very red states. That could be the outcome of following the logic of Obama and his supporters.

[McSameisthegame]

Last time I looked, a "couple of" questions was TWO!!! Just a reminder....now you cannot vote in primaries of either party! NICE!

[smoothrob]

I won't bother with 1 and 2; maybe you can work those out by yourself. As for number 3, Edwards publicly dropped out of the race when??? Apparently, with only 3 months notice, those wise West Virginians couldn't figure out how to take his name off. But yeah, I'm sure your theory was right-- Edwards just left his name on to screw up Clinton :(

And congratulations on your independence.

[MoeSart]

It is likely that he will clinch the nomination by the end of the month, and it is almost certain he will do so within days of the final primaries on June 3rd.
----------------

If he were a strong candidate, he would have clinched the nom long ago. He's weak. He has squeaked by even though he has the Dem power brokers and the media in his pocket.

----------------
When it comes to blow outs, Obama has won 21 contests by more than 20%
----------------

How many of those states does he have a realistic chance at in November? He's going to win Iowa, Nebraska and Utah in November?

He might win five states total if he's lucky. The only chance Obama has is for McCain to blow it somehow.

-----------------
his much greater strength among the independent voters who will mainly decide the fall presidential race.
-----------------

Nonsense.

[mjc]

Agree with you that it is strange that this man who the media seem to love, untouchable by any of the scandals that have been roiling around his name---Wright, Rezko, Ayers for example---still has trouble closing the deal. Of the major industrial states, Obama has one: Illinois. Hillary has New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Ohio, West Virginia, Michigan--still not counted, and Oklahoma and Arkansas--with southern tones, and California. She came very close in Missouri. Those are all rather large, populous states. Obama's message, whatever it was that day, didn't come through. When change is all you can come up with after over a year on the campaign trail, maybe those voters couldn't stomach the lack of ideas and plans.
No question: Obama did NOT carry 21 states by 21% of the electorate.

[mjc]

People will believe what is repeated either on the airwaves or in print every time. Obama did not win 21 contests with over or even even 21% And you are right, Moe. If this was his race from the beginning you would think he could have closed the deal long ago. He can't because there is quite a large element of the voting population that is simply not going to vote for him for various reasons or believes Hillary Clinton is the better choice; a large proportion!

[SethBullock]

Guess Moesart has a hard time reading polls. They all show that Obama wins independents from McCain--where Clinton can't.

[McSameisthegame]

McCain will "blow it" by repeating the same bullshit lies in October that noone is paying attention to now! The American people ARE dumb as dirt-but not THAT dumb......are they??? How's that "hundred years in Iraq" working for the GOP, sparky????

[smoothrob]

You probably still believe in Santa Claus too...would go right along with the rest of your denial.

[bdd]

WTF..When does she leave??
It's like the family member who came to visit and will not leave.
Hillary, HELP ME PLEASE MOVE OUT NOW.

[politicod]

As much as I wanted to give Senator Clinton the chance to exit with dignity, and with a few big wins, the rhetoric from her campaign--"we're in it to win it" as well as constantly changing the metrics, made me breathe a sigh of relief when Senator Edwards decided to endorse Obama. I knew we would spend a day analyzing Senator Clinton's amazing victory in a primary where Senator Obama did not compete as well as his problems with down scale voters. I am glad Senator Edwards acted in the best interests of the party. I am sure this must be very difficult for Senator Clinton and her dedicated staff. Many national Democrats have proposed giving her time to exit the race gracefully, hence Obama did not contest West Virgina. The result was to make Obama look weak and to give Clinton another rationale to continue. Fortunately, Senator Edwards was able to give Senator Clinton a reality check. I hope Super Delegates will continue to support him and bring this historic race to an end. I do think we're ready to turn a page, and proably that means without a Clinton in the White House.

[mjc]

What utter nonsense! Obama did not contest West Virginia!!! BS He spent millions in tv ads and although one day only on Monday that does not mean he didn't try to contest that race. Obama giving Clinton time to exit gracefully.....what are you smoking?

[RetUSAFO2005]

Edwars will do little to help the King of Pandering, Sen. Barack Obama. Recent elections reflect that once two Black journalist told America the truth of Obama, he has lost 3 of 4 elections. The media continue to give Obama an endless amount of free advertising while attacking Sen. Hillary Clinton relentlessly.

One would think that Sen. Obama is a basketball star as much as the media Pander him on television. This follows Obama"s eating talents at breakfast, lunch and dinner at diners throughout the country. The Senator from Illinois and his campaign staff must believe that his endless pandering provides the struggling Americans gratification for others" desires where he clearly lacks knowledge like political agendas that include tax and foreign affairs political law. At least he is clear on how men should address women with his "sweetie" comment when referring to females. In my work culture, such jargon is improper and not comical as the media wants the average employer to believe.

Now Obama is pandering Michigan voters after months of refusing to give them the right to vote at the upcoming Democratic Convention. In normal Obama fashion, he offered "advanced manufacturing fund" to industries like the auto industry that is having problems keeping jobs in the United States. Meaningless words such as this do not offer solutions that unemployed Americans are experiencing. Just look at his close friend, Gov. Patrick Duval, he too used the speeches that Obama used and has given Massachusetts record high unemployment rates.

[SonnyBono]

Don't tell me - let me guess, Reader's Digest just gave you a new word "pander" and you plan to use it frequently so you can add it to your vocabulary. Good for you. Now go back to your cave and figure out just who is responsible for the mess this country is in.

As for the rest of your post - Merde (also a new word for you, look it up - its French).

[BubbaC33]

What a great reply, so typical of Obama supporters. Rather than address the argument attack on a personal level. That is a great way to continue to alienate the Clinton supporters and the middle of the Democratic Party. Could it be you want Obama to run as the 2008 version of George McGovern?

[finlandstation]

what exactly do you mean by "down scale voters". these so-called down scale voters are the base of the democratic party. this is precisely the kind of elitist bs that many of us in the party are fed up with and why democratic nominees lose so badly. the process is hijacked every four years by an unrepresentative wing of the party which results in nominating a candidate totally out of touch with mainstream voters.

[SethBullock]

Do you know who the last Democrat was who got the so called "down scale white voters".

A clue. It wasn't Bill Clinton. It wasn't Jimmy Carter. Got a guess? Yes, it was Lyndon Johnson. Would be nice, since the Democrats would be a lot better for them. But if they like Republican McCain or Republican Lite Clinton; they can vote that way and we'll find a way to win without them.

[BubbaC33]

I love it when Obama supporters spin and distort in order to attack Ms. Clinton as GOP-lite. It is so false as to be laughable.
Obama has used the same scare tacticcs on Social Security employed by George W. Bush. The ideas developed inside a right wing, GOP-funded think tank. Obama has said the GOP has been the party of ideas over the past ten years, a period of time that includes the ideas of the W presidency. And Obama spoke quite deferentially about Ronald Reagan, something the Clintons did not do. Add to that the manner in which Obama has injected race into the campiagn, Rove would be proud of how well his tactics have been utilized by the Obama campaign. And it has been Obama who has declared he would bring the GOP into his administration. The GOP has lost the ability to compromise and are, by and large, a bunch of heathens.
So call Ms. Clinton whatever names you want, but in this cae you are telling a lie in order to cover Obama's links to the GOP. And you ought to be ashamed, but I know you won't be.

[Star2000dancer]

Downscaled voters? I just heard Obama say he was in 57 states. He doesn't even know how many staes we have? Please. WV represents the majority of Ameican voters. Million of voters didn't vote in the primaries that wish they did now. The General will be a very different race.

[SethBullock]

West Virginia is one of the smallest, whitest, and poorest states in the country. It represents itself.

You think the President of the Harvard Law Review doesn't know how many states there are? You ever heard of a "joke"? Look it up.

[WordManMI]

Obama was talking about the 57 Islamic states which are having a conference.

[McSameisthegame]

MORON! 57 Islamic states could NEVER have a conference-the Sunnis and the Shiites would murder each other before the conference started! And....there aren't 57 Islamic states in the world!

[dawn2dusk]

I don't understand what Obama haters have to offer. Are GWBush and McCain really the best we can hope for? Is fear of attack by our enemies, the desire for a perpetual divide between blacks and whites, "playing" the poor and then sending them to fight the war the best they can offer?

Why does an educated, inspirational candidate who moves people get involved have to be demonized as cultish and messianic? This is not Texas.

All of the people who post proMcCain/Hillary comments (they seem to have the same psychological profile) hopefully have children that they are willing to send to Iraq, or shut the f.u.

The current Obama/democratic party is more reminiscent of the spirit of our country's founding fathers, abolishionists, civil rights soldiers, and women sufferagists (sp?) MY POINT....

Optimists create, build, forge, strive, include, consider, enable. Pessimists tear down, maintain, incite, exclude, hoard, feast on fear.

[finlandstation]

hey dawn - have you been reading the posts of your so-called optimists? please show me one post that in any way demonstrates what you describe. all i've read, over and over, is abusive vitriol about hillary and her racist supporters. i take your suggestion about shutting the f.u as an example of how the obama/democratic party is reminiscent of the spirit of our country's founding fathers. did you lift that sentiment from the constitution or the declaration of independence? you're a regular abigail.
but thanks for your enlightened words of encouragement. something to inspire us all.

[sross29]

Well put dawn2dusk.

[BubbaC33]

The admission Obama's party has a the spirit of the founding fathers is a good indication you need to take a high school level history course. Your statement has nothing to connect it to reality.
As for your statement about sending children to Iraq, no. But when my daughter is a little older she will be spending time on a kibbutz. Will that satisfy your juvenile thinking?

[BubbaC33]

I do not recall Creamer mentioning Obama's win in NC came because there are more black voters there, just that he had won big. But when Ms. Clinton wins by a larger margin in WV he mentions the white voters, uneducated he calls them, who are Ms. Clinton's base. It seems to me Creamer is a racist.

[finlandstation]

i suppose if he stated this fact he would have been accused of being a racist. invariably it's obama's supporters who are always talking about race. the more they denigrate the further they alienate hillary's base.
and i agree with you, ignoring the results in north carolina but referring to the racial composition of west virginia voters demonstrates how racist creamer is. i'm sick of all this racial profiling we hear from the obama camp.

[saulpaulus]

BTW, I don't mind if you disagree with me...but I did not call you any names.