Clinton's Appalachia Success

If the exit polls (and the pre-election polls) are accurate, Hillary Clinton is set to win West Virginia by roughly a 2 to 1 margin over Barack Obama. Oregon, next Tuesday, favors Obama. But Kentucky, which votes the same day, seems likely to yield a similar margin for Sen. Clinton. So what is it about these two states that makes them so favorable to Hillary Clinton?

There's been a lot of talk in this campaign about Barack Obama's problem with working class white voters or rural voters. But these claims are both inaccurate because they are incomplete. You can look at states like Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania and other states and see the different numbers and they are all explained by one basic fact. Obama's problem isn't with white working class voters or rural voters. It's Appalachia. That explains why Obama had a difficult time in Ohio and Pennsylvania and why he's getting crushed in West Virginia and Kentucky.

Read the whole story here.

Comments

[saun8934]

Bottomline: Ohio and PA definitely have more racists people than say, Iowa even Wisconsin. However, WV- wow, just about everyone in that state is clearly racist. I will say the majority of white people that don't have an education or a college education, are resentful white people who are "BITTER" and angry towards african americans and blame them for there lack of success!
Even though it is not african americans fault. They have had it harder than any other race out there. However, some uneducated whites are to ignorant to realize that!
So they continue to remain in stuck in stupity.
That is why they are not voting for Barack Obama. Anyone who says different, like Pat Buchanan, are just plain stupid or have the wool pulled over their eyes.

[DeanLowe]

70% of whites who vote for the white candidate are racist but 90% of blacks who vote for the black candidate are not??

[DeanLowe]

Is Josh saying that Clinton gets the "old, dumb, white voters" and Obama can't?

Isn't that going to be a Huge problem for him in November??

[NCMan]

None of this post actually addresses another important demographic in Clinton's WV win. In addition to carrying th edemographic that she usually carries, she also carried the demographics that usually favor Obama.

She carried the College educated voters in WV, she carried EVERY age group in WV, she carried those making OVER $50,000 in WV She carried the male vote in WV.

So, the more interesting question is what happened to Obama in the demographics he usually carries?

[Sparklez]

Well, he didnt campaign there

i bet if he had a good two weeks to campaign there, he would have closed the gap just like he did in PA and OH

[saun8934]

Maybe, but I believe WV is a very racists state, more than any others this far.
I for one, am glad Barack did not waist his time there, something is telling me they would not have given him the benefit of the doubt!

[rimofheaven]

I've tried not to say anything about this issue, but our state of denial insist that someone must. This article is complete smoke in our eyes. Fact is, four of Clinton's major states held or are holding Klan rallies just prior to their primaries: Marshall, Texas - March 1, Dayton, Ohio - January 26, Logan, West Virginia - February 9, and Pikeville, Kentucky - March 29, Dawson Springs, Kentucky - March 29, Pineville Kentucky - April 11. It should also be noted that the state of Ohio also held Neo-Nazi meetings during this time period: Troy, Ohio - January 21 (MLK day protest), Lewisburg, Ohio - March 1 (Book burning). Be careful not to ignore the fact that Ohio and PA are pretty close to each other politically. These fact are being dismissed or ignored because they are ugly, and they scare us. The dark truth is, Obama, since super Tuesday, has been battling on four fronts: Clinton from the left, McCain from the right, the racist media (Fox) from the rear, and racist America head on. Which will win? The world is watching, waiting to see what the outcome will be. Fear decided our last election. Will hate, fear, and spite decide this one?

[ajax2]

Josh has done a very nice historical background of the region, but there is no reason to throw out the exit poll data. If I'm not mistaken about 20% of Hillary's vote in this region said race was a factor.

[Sparklez]

and i bet the others lied and said it wasnt

[ThePrisoner]

So it's a bad thing that Obama will do poorly in Appalachia - with its demographic of uneducated, elderly, inbred, racist voters? They'll always vote for the candidate who wears flag pins and claims the're reborn while screwing them on jobs, health care, taxes, infrastructure and everything else that should matter. So let's get over it.

[Vern58]

Telling exit polling from WVA
This is the state with the dubious honor of having more white voters for whom race was an issue than any other. Not only was it just an issue- for a sizable minority it WAS the deciding issue.
Sorry, Hillary. Is this sort of race politics what you really want?
If the answer is yes- then you do not deserve the nomination for dog catcher.

[NCMan]

has anyone yet published the data for what percent of the black vote race was an important factor? Has the media even dared to ask that question in a poll yet?

If it is important to know what percent of white voters considered race in their vote, shouldn't it be equally important to know the same informatino about black voters?

[eej]

I don't think the nation should follow Appalachia. Just my opinion.

[LeeinJax]

Do you mean you don't think the nation should follow Appalachia **again**.

Hmmmm. Are you suggesting it hasn't been working out for us?

[apoyo]

I don't blame Obama for not campaigning hard in an area where he was basically going to be disrespected and dismissed. He has no magic powers to convert something that is innate.

But, what I gather from the article is that this area has been suppressed by their own citizenry so they have not advanced economically and educationally. This reminds me of a study done comparing the level of assimilation and economic progression of immigrants where they found that on the whole most immigrants whether European or Latin American progressed at the same pace. The exception were the Mexican-Americans where the generations were basically static, little or no progress. Maybe they should do a study comparing the Mexican-Americans and the West Virginians. They both seem to be voting for Hillary so they already have one thing in common.

[KillTheMessenger]

Appalachia... isn't that synonymous with white racists?

Why do we even expect an ethnic candidate to win there?

[presto]

No, it is not. It is synonymous with poverty though and that is what Obama is not addressing. Treating this as a racist issue is missing the point. As with most political contests, this one is coming down to economics. Clinton is much better at talking to everyday people with serious financial struggles than Obama is. He is seen as aloof and remote. His speeches are inspiring but too lofty and too futuristic to appeal to people who are suffering today. The mob has now congealed itself into this blob fixated on perceived racial divisons and is rolling off track more and more every day. It is poisoning the dialog. And disparaging entire blocs of voters in such an unfair and condescending way is picking off voters at the fringes every day. Taking the racism junk off the table and putting economics front and center would turn everything around for - Obama would find the support he needs easily. Racism exists here and there and always will. It does not, however, even begin to explain this situation.

[1PALady]

Sorry to say, I think it's some of both, some racial and some poverty. Either way, it's not good. I don't think it's poverty for PA. You just gotta call it what it is.

[smark]

Exactly. And why is Clinton gloating over the fact that she won WVa by a high margin? I would be embarrassed, if I were her. Exit polling did show that 83% of the voters in WVa said that race played a role in their decisions.

To turn the tables on Hillary, she needs to explain whether she has the same racist views as some of her WVa supporters? This is only fair since Hillary loves to use the guilt by association accusation on Obama. And I am sure her surrogates have been spreading vicious rumors via e-mail, etc. That is just how she plays the game--ultimate gutter politics.

[presto]

That is the kind of irresponsible comment that keeps this race issue going ahead full speed. I have no idea where you got your figures but every exit poll I saw said that about 20 percent of white voters said race was a factor in their decision. Making up a number and then basing a rant on it does not help.

[wm1066]

I think Hillary is tapping into the angry voter. Most of us have been angry for a long time and are now looking for hope but some people are just waking up to the fact that we have been screwed and now they are angry..... They are behind the curve.
And then there is the 'alpha nun factor' that alot of catholics are following.
All she needs is a ruler and black robes....perfect authoritarian figure.

[chronic]

Bitter?

Sillary says you are not bitter!

[SanityNowPlease]

absolutely the most insightful, rational, objective, historically accurate expose of the "problem" to date

well done. bravo.

[RThM]

This has got to be one of the best observations of regional and historical voting patterns I've read in a long time. I was struck by the odd placement of Clinton support in Virginia's counties and those of several other states in the region and this explains it brilliantly. Unfortunately, the MSM likes to cast everything as black and white because their analysis is cheap and as disposable as the evening news. The only thing that counts are that states appear in one color for one candidate and another color for the other candidate. Thank you.

[Countess]

The south will not be a problem for Obama in the general election and in fact he will do much better there than any other democratic candidate. The problem is in the old industrial states like Ohio and Pennsylvania where there is a significant proportion of white racist democrats but he can still win these states by winning larger majorities in the urban centers where the african american vote will be higher than usual. He will do much better in the west than people think and he still is a better candidate than Hillary Clinton who is simply too much like the republicans.

[ProgressiveBum]

I agree, Western states will turn purple/blue in record numbers. I expect TX, ID to be very close in the GE; NM, MT and CO will turn blue; CA, OR, WA are solid blue.

[NoahVail]

I do not like the way the term "blue collar" is being abused. "Blue collar" jobs are good-paying, typically union jobs that require some skill and training. These jobs, of which there are almost none in West Virginia, are being lumped in with "unskilled laborer" jobs, to try to bolster the notion that Hillary has something (besides racism) going for her in WV.

I have a suggestion for a new ad campaign to enable O'Bama (the Irishman) to reach some of these folks:

A guy in a clansman outfit who says, "Don't be bitter. Vote for the n****r!"

[08timefortruth]

Flagged for ignorance

[Krikkit]

Marshall's analysis is both elegant and jives with historic fact. What I want to know is what is the democratic party population in the appalachian region as opposed to the rest of the country? WV's population is quite low, considering its close proximity to DC and the NE corridor. If these "hill folk" are Hillary's true base, it would be useful to know exactly what number of voters he CAN'T count on to back the party nominee in the fall election.

[Nonamnesiac]

"Kentucky" means "stupid, racist White male mentality majority" in the Dixiecrat dialect of the Redneck language. It's really that simple (and ugly).

[jungpatawan]

Reading the whole story at TPM, the maps there are one of the most significant comparisons I've ever seen in politics. It's astounding how tightly her strong counties overlaps the Appalachian region.

So apparaently all the hillbillies vote for Hill-Billary.

JP

[RThM]

I fully agree that this analysis is extremely significant. The population of the East and South is significant but the problem for Clinton was that the areas of her strongest support almost exactly coincide with the areas of the sparsest population. The candidate of Appalachia wasn't and isn't ever going to carry the East and South as a whole considering Obama's strong support in the most heavily populated areas.

[hugs4u]

Not many branches in the family trees in Appalachian region.

[eurydice]

I call Senator Robert Byrd to endorse a candidate.

Let's see how far he has distanced himself from his Klan beginnings.

[eurydice]

The idea of West Virginia and Kentucky going for a woman in a general election vote is laughable. And a woman who is a Democrat?

Hillary won WV and will probably win Kentucky by racism and racism alone. Racism she and Bill played into and encouraged.

Shame on you, Hlllary Clinton.

[pupbayer]

Obama wins a lot of states because of the Black vote...a vote based on race. Racism that Obama and Michelle play into and encourage.

And Oprah and Michelle are the first to introduce race into this campaign. Some of us actually have memories.

[Marrigan]

Why is it so hard to state the obvious? Yes, WVA elected Jay Rockefeller, but their favorite son is former KKK'er, Sen. Bobby Byrd, who they have named half the state's buildings, roads and bridges after. Byrd has bought this flattery by consistently bringing home the pork. The Clintons have built their dynasty by doing the same thing. One would think that Hillary would be embarrassed to win Bobby Byrd's state (even though he hasn't endorsed her), but that's what blind ambition does to a person.

[NoahVail]

Very good point. WV has benefitted from the "Democratic machine."

[Gericault]

Racism might very well prevail in this upcoming election. I am not going to let that obscure the reasons I support Barack Obama. I am tired of all of our political desicions being based on fear.
That dog doesn't hunt anymore , as my people in Tennessee would say.

The delegate math this time is going to be different. I have seen Obama come from 20-25 points behind and pull out victories. He's running relatively even with McCain and he hasn't even campaigned against him yet. If Hillary would quit filling the room with smoke we could start clearing it a little and see where we really stand with McCain.

The western states in this election are going to be a paradigm shift in electoral politics. Even a dumb ignorant rascist is gonna see the huge difference in governing ability when the two candidates Obama and McCain debate side by side.

Let the general election begin....

[tipiglen6]

An interesting discussion of the nature of Appalachia, which, however, fails to mention the problem any candidate who wishes to have "green" credentials will have with any region with coal-mining, however destructive, is an economic mainstay.

[nellie]

Unlike the other posters here, I think you've developed a very interesting theory. I've spent a lot of time in West Virginia, and I think one element you might add to your list of characteristics is traditional. This is a very old-fashioned area, which is also consistent with Clinton voters. I'd hesitate to call an entire state racist. Being a person of color, I can say I was treated with more courtesy by strangers in West Virginia than I was in parts of New York. Or California for that matter. For what it's worth.

I would say this is prime area for wireless and satellite internet marketing. I think people don't have a lot of access to information or new media in this area, and that's been echoed by people from WV I hear calling in to radio programs.