Does Oregon Put Obama's White Working Class Problem To Rest?

Since much ink has been spent on Sen. Barack Obama's troubles with the white work class vote - "[it has been] painted as a fatal flaw in his campaign," as Keith Olberman noted - it is important to note that the Senator had big time success among that very constituency in Oregon's primary on Tuesday.

White voters - the only ones in the exit polls because the state is so homogeneous - went to the Senator in overwhelming numbers. In fact, every age group, except those older than 60, preferred Obama to Sen. Hillary Clinton. Obama, in addition, won the majority of voters whose total family incomes where less than $50,000 as well as all income groups, save for the smallest: $15,000 to $29,999. Union households, moreover, went to Obama by a margin of 60 percent to 37 percent.

Clinton, as has traditionally proven the case, bested Obama among those Oregon voters whose highest level of education was a high school degree, by a margin of 53 to 44 percent. But among Catholics, which have proven to be, perhaps, Clinton's largest and most sturdy contingent of supporters, Obama actually did better: 49 to 48 percent.

So what to make of it all? For starters, the conventional wisdom that Obama has a working class white problem should probably be replaced with the argument, which Talking Points Memo's Josh Marshall has pointed to, that he has an Appalachia problem. Finally, it has to be at the very least noted that race is a factor, at least in some regions of the country. Ten percent of Oregon Democratic primary voters said that race was an important issue. Of that group, however, 51 percent still supported Obama.

In Kentucky, by contrast, 21 percent of primary-goers cited race as an important issue in their voting decision. Of that group, 81 percent supported Clinton.

Comments

[ntmessage]

Clearly, this is not about race. It is about elitism. White voters will vote for Obama. No one said they would not. However, missing this point also misses the major one. The electability question.

Right now Obama gets 10 EVs LESS than Kerry did in his loss against Bush; against McCain while Clinton gets at least 49 EVs MORE than Kerry did against Bush; against McCain. This is not about race. This is exactly the same BS issues we had with Kerry, only worse. The far left of the establishment Democratic Party has never had a majority since Bill Clintons big tent that included those people and states, which Obama cannot relate to. In fact, it seems that cycle after cycle DNC do not care if they lose the Presidency if they can selfishly stay in power.

[Dandrea]

I want Obama to fight for these people. And I think many of the comments are so ignorant ! We have the kettles calling the covers racists, hicks and other boorish names. The Scotch -Irish Appalachians have a proud tradition.

[PDXer]

(con't)I

Certainly racism exists throughout Appalachia as it, too, permeates all of American society. However, how do we explain that the town of Matewan, Mingo county, West Virginia, 95% Caucasian, had elected and re-elected--for several terms--a black mayor? A black man still sits on the Matewan Town Council today. Also, how do we explain the numerous inter-racial relationships which existed between high school students in Matewan and Williamson, WV as far back as the 1970s? I could go on, but will not belabor my point.

For Obama to find his voice, for Appalachian people, HE MUST GO THERE. He must attend small venues and speak directly to the people--THEY WILL LISTEN. These are people who Bill and Hillary made to feel special and important, and the Appalachian people responded. The UMWA endorsed Obama today. They understand their constituents.

Obama, go to Appalachia. Talk with them. You will find that these people are more class than race oriented. Although they carry unique cultural characteristics, they are not as different from the mainstream as we think.

[PDXer]

If mainstream America's ignorance of Appalachia were oil, due to its ample supply, we'd be somewhere near $1.25 a barrel. That said, central Appalachia has a long history of racial groups coming together during the labor organizing movement of the early 20th century. (e.g., John Sayles 1987 film "Matewan") To paint all Appalachian people and Appalachia generally as a land of backward thinking morons is far from the truth.

One study in the 1970s of Cincinnati urban Appalachians suggested that black Appalachians in that city preferred accessing Appalachian-specific social service resources when there was a choice between Appalachian social services and more mainstream resources. Appalachian cultural and class ties still existed even when Appalachian people moved away from the region and very regularly transcended race. (con't)

[panchovilla]

Obama needs every vote possible. A landslide would give him a stronger mandate to confront special interests, pull out of Iraq, pass universal health care, the greening of the economy, and strong macro-economic action to clean the real estate/credit mess and get the (world and U.S.) economy moving ahead for the benefit of regular, middle- and working class Americans. A landslide would also help us make Obama accountable for the agenda he's promised to implement.

[txgal44]

Is this really an issue? Or is Hillary and the media making it one?

Remember, the media HAS to have something to talk about and Hillary HAS to raise money!

If you are still getting your news from TV and cable then you're a slow learner and have a high tolerance for bullshit.

[uhappytoo]

Is it possible for a pundit to report on the campaign without resorting to Mark Penn's failed "microtrends" strategy?

[Seethesky]

I've yet to hear anyone mention the IRONY of Hillary's campaign. She wants every American to be well educated, and says that this country can't MOVE FORWARD unless more people become better educated.

AND YET.........

The only way she could possibly win this election is to rely on the votes of UNEDUCATED white people. I think this is the funniest thing abut her entire campaign, and yet nobody mentions this irony. If Hillary had her way, she would have every white citizen be as uneducated as possible so as to increase her slim chances of being elected Democratic nominee. She is a real piece of work!

[meileen]

Oregon is a liberal state, no big wup for a win there for Obama.
Appalachia is need to win in November. Realize it, or we end up with McCain.

[LeaveArtieAlone]

May 21, 2008

Key Clinton Constituencies Moving Toward Obama
http://www.gallup.com/poll/107407/Obama-Surge-Fairly-BroadBased.aspx

Obama Faces Uphill Climb vs. McCain Among White Voters
http://www.gallup.com/poll/107416/Obama-Faces-Uphill-Climb-vs-McCain-Among-White-Voters.aspx

You just gotta love FACTS!!!!

[circles]

Um, no. Appalachia, KY and WV are already red states. Clinton 1 may have carried them, but Hillary, NO WAY.
BHO can play other states like VA (13) to make KY (8) and WV (5) unecessary.

[M.S. Bellows, Jr. - Huffpost Blogger]

See M.S. Bellows, Jr.'s Profile

And NM, CO, NV, VA, and conceivably even AZ, SD, ND, WY...

[TrixtersMom]

YUP!

[sclucie]

Could we stop with the Appalachia brand and talk about the Ohio River Valley - which is actually the voting bloc in question? Appalachia includes the Carolinas - which came out pretty heavily for Obama and parts of Virginia.

Could we also stop talking about poor people who don't have a lot of education as if that's a personal choice - as if people would rather raise their kids in extreme poverty, instead of sending them to the best private schools in the country - the ones the pundits all graduated from? Could we start looking at how this could be happening in America, one of the richest countries in the world and say it's unacceptable? Isn't that what happened 40 years ago, when Bobby Kennedy left Hyannis Port, went south and discovered there were hungry children in America?

I agree - the Ohio River Valley belongs to John McCain - it's not part of a whatever-state strategy. And I can't tell you how tired I am with the latest Clinton meme - and I am insulted everytime I hear her pretend to be working class - but why aren't there reporters down there writing about those people as human beings?

[M.S. Bellows, Jr. - Huffpost Blogger]

See M.S. Bellows, Jr.'s Profile

If you go county-by-county, it is Appalachia. I think Kos did a map.

[Vern58]

This statement is 100% spot on. I live in Indiana, and there are 3 different Indianas. The northern part is very much like the rest of the upper Midwest. Michigan,Wisconsin,Northern Illinois are all comparable- and it is here where a great majority of Progressives in the state live. The Central Indiana- which bears more of a resemblance to that great swath of prairie territory that runs Eastern Kansas through Missouri,Central Illinois and into parts -parts mind you of Ohio. Then there is the South which resembles Kentucky, WVA, Southern Ohio and PA. You are correct- it is more the Ohio River that this region has in common.

[Felicty]

America does not need Appalachia.

[cluesearch]

I agree. If the Appalachians want to continue to vote against their own self interest because of lingering racial prejudice then by all means vote for McCain and when they are unemployed because all of their jobs went to South America via NAFTA or China and India and are living on food stamps and wondering why, perhaps then they will examine whether maintaining their prejudice is worth the lack of food in their children's stomachs or money in their pockets. They'll get a clue one day. If not, tough nuggies. They get what they deserve.

[eurydice]

Anybody ever see an African American in a Bluegrass band?

The Appalachian area is historically insular and xenophobic, and their classic musical form embraces and epitomizes this outlook, with a musical form that is fascist in structure, and racist in demographic makeup.

[jergerb]

There isn't a white problem, stop listening to infotainment journalist.

[thewizard13]

Obama should go to Kentucky and W. Virginia and give a couple LBJ type speeches. Vote for me and live well and prosper. Vote against me and for 4 years all you are going to get is gun oil and Bibles if you are lucky, and maybe not even that.That ought to take care of the race issue.I remember when Louisana went against LBJ and voted for Goldwater.We didn't get anything for a long time.

[harriscrl3]

This may sound cold but Obama runs his campaign like a business. For all the talk that Romney and others have about Obama having no business experience he has run a lean efficient business machine better than ALL of them. As a business he knows when to cut his losses. As a business he knows what his strenghts are and where to put his resources. He doesnt NEED Kentucky and WV to win the general election. He knows what he needs and where to put his resources. If he approaches our Govermnent the same way in his administration we may have our most efficient govermnent yet.

Give him some credit he knows what he is doing.

Carol

[MoxieGurl]

You my friend are SPOT ON!!! The views of the voters in WV and KY are a generational issue. No amount of campaigning would have changed their views. He cut his losses and haved his money to fight another day.

Clinton on the other hand could have saved her self a few bucks by cutting back on spending in WV and KY when it was a given that she was going to walk away with a win. No wonder she's over $30 million in the rabbit hole. If she runs her campaign like this you can imagine how she would run our government. Just like Bush into the ground. So much for fiscal responsiblity.

[gladys46]

One would be well informed to recognize those facts!! You'd think that this brilliance would be an indication of great organizational talents! Obama's ability to have brought such talented staff people together is another fantastic thing.

I beleive Hillary spent much of her contributions on paying high priced republican research teams ... those types must not only be paid billable hours but they must be paid for silence as well .... that's very expensive!

[justShareandbeNice]

Totally true!!! He is a very wise manager of money and people. How cool is that?