McCain Appears To Trail In Trio Of Battleground States

New polling shows Barack Obama leading in key states, even though he hasn't gotten a significant bump in national polling since securing the Democratic nomination.

Quinnipiac University polls for Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania, released Wednesday, show Sen. Obama leading Republican John McCain in all three states, though generally by modest margins. Sen. Obama shows strength among women and African-Americans.

Read the whole story here.

Comments

[cacique88]

By November, the combination of the Obama Campaign's 50 state strategy and the Vote for Change registration drive will provide Obama with the margin of victory he will need to pull off an amazing landslide.

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Our movement will lead to a sweep of Democrats with powerful majorities in the House and the Senate. Gubernatorial and local elections will also be affected as nearly 30 million new voters are registered and existing voter participation increases beyond the 60% to 70%.

If you think that this is wishful thinking remember that if you were told a year ago that 1.5 million donors would generate 250 million in donations for a primary you would have said that was impossible.

We have unparalleled commitment and our volunteers have great passion.

Obama 08

[SpaceCadet]

The Rasmussen and Quinnipiac polls for Florida aren't as different as they look. The Rasmussen poll shows Obama losing 39 to 47 and the Quinnipiac poll shows Obama beating McCain 47 to 44. But the Rasmussen poll had only 500 people and a margin of error of 4.5%. The Quinnipiac poll had a much larger sample of 1453 and a margin of error of 2.5%.

So the race is a tie within the margin of error of both polls: Obama could be winning 43.5 to 42.5 for McCain in by the Rasmussen sample and losing with 44.5 to 46.5 for McCain by the Quinnipiac sample.

[xhibi]

Meet McCain's opponent:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ylVTBiGh00c

[Gmoney1]

With all the harassment of Michele Obama about her I'm really proud of my country for the first time statement, did anyone hear that John McCain said he was not proud of his country until... they have a video of it - let's see if the republicans put that in their unpatriotic category - oh, let's hear Cindy McCain respond to her husband's remark -

[Beachchick]

One thing that seems to be religiously studies in this country is public opinion.
Does anyone have objective information concerning the reliability of Rasmussen polling? Are there any examples of a different outcome than the poll suggests?

Thanks -

[the964kid]

Some polls show Obama up in Florida and some show McCain up - regardless it's close there. BUT Obama has never campaigned there, unlike McCain who has been there countless times and who has the backing of Florida's governor. This is definitely bad news for McCain, and good news for Obama. Imagine where's the polls will go once Obama actually puts his vast resources into that state.

[toosinbeymen]

Thanks so much for your input, Rupert Murdoch.

[SanityClaus]

The funniest part of the WSJ story is how they are holding out this pathetic hope that Romney could help McCan't in MI because his father was a popular governor from 1963-1969.

If you were old enough to vote in the 1960s you are now over 60. Isn't that already McCant's BASE?

It's like when McCan't compares O to Jimmy Carter. A huge chunk of O's supporters are too young to have any personal memories of the Carter administration. They might as well compare him to Rutherford B. Hayes.

[SanityClaus]

First Amendment warning: In composing my response to this article, I described the WSJ as "thums*cking" and my comment was deleted by the "bad words filter."

I'm finding it harder and harder to express myself within the confines of HuffPo's filters.

[wm1066]

I agree, I don't like to swear but they nitpicked me for using a totally safe word that is in the dictionary.

[toosinbeymen]

Try using ideas rather than fowl language.

[TheRebel82]

Rasmussen is a repuke pollster and a ba one at that! LOL Floridians support offshore drilling? On what planet?

[blueshield]

Polls are like candy. They're cheap to make, will be consumed if they're within reach, have no lasting value, and become an excuse for inactivity.

[bosshogg]

according to arg polling obama has a lead too in Florida http://americanresearchgroup.com/ i believe it had to do with internals of rasmussen poll but come on it was a 1 point lead......http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ has great overlook of it......

[independent32955]

rasmussen also shows a majority of Floridians supporting offshore drilling, so in a word, rasmussen is NUTS!!

but please, you GOP supporters go right on thinking you've got this one in the bag and the rest of us will keep working diligently to get the BO message out to all who will listen.

[kasv]

I too think Rasmussen is the outlier here. Obama is largely unknown in FL, and he's holding his own. Wait till the campaign intensifies, and commercials target McCain saying NO to social security privitization and now YES. Plus, somehow, I just can't see all those Floridians going for offshore drilling as Rassie states is the case.

[WendellPerrySociety]

Ratmussen polling is a joke - the guy is on Faux News every other night. He always puts a poll friendly to the Rethuglicans when they need one. All other polls will show Obama with high a single digit lead in various polls and along will come Ratmussen giving McCain usually a mysterious 1 point lead. Ratmussen is to the Rethuglicans what ARG was for Clinton.

[mshazen]

Just like "suburban white women", what is that every poll show Obama polls very strong with women but they throw this bogus "SWW" poll in because it is the only one McCain polls better in.

[papla]

rasmuseen never get anything right for Obama..so i dont pay attention to there polls.

[AxelDC]

Rasmussen is the outlier here, and has been the most consistently unfriendly to Obama. When it showed a 1 point lead for Obama in Michigan, other polls showed 4-6 point leads.

Obama does not really need Florida to win. In fact, before he pulled ahead here, EV tracking sites put him well over 300 EVs without it. For McCain, there is almost no scenario where he wins without Florida, especially with PA moving out of reach and Colorado and Iowa almost "safe" states for Obama.

I think Obama is more likely to win VA than FL, but a win here would rip the heart out of the McCain camp. The only bigger loss would be Texas, and that would indicate a Reaganesque victory by Obama.