The Real Food Crisis

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Posted June 23, 2008 | 09:22 PM (EST)



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What happened to the global food crisis? It was in the news and out again as quickly as a bad Hollywood movie. The media covered the alarming increase in food prices that have hit poor people so hard. Riots broke out in dozens of countries. Zimbabwe, Sudan, and North Korea are on the edge of severe hunger. Earlier this month, world leaders met in Rome to redirect global funds to meet the new problem.

There's nothing like a big meeting to signal to the news media that adult supervision has returned and everyone can safely focus on other matters.

But instead of addressing the underlying causes of the crisis, world leaders have largely engaged in a high-stakes game of finger-pointing. Everybody has identified a different culprit for the 83% spike in global food prices over the last three years. At the UN conference in Rome, Zimbabwe's not-for-long leader Robert Mugabe blamed colonialism. Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad argued that Western countries had deliberately devalued the dollar and driven up oil prices. Brazil blasted the United States for subsidizing corn-based ethanol; the United States blasted Brazil for diverting agricultural land for sugar-cane-based ethanol.

True, the crisis has generated a small bump up in humanitarian aid. But no one is challenging business as usual in the world of agriculture. Neither the United States nor the European Union has backtracked on their biofuel policies, which has siphoned food into the gas tanks of the wealthy world. Nor has the United States in particular addressed with any greater urgency the environmental constraints that are making food production harder and harder each year: global warming, water shortages, a declining per-capita percentage of arable land.

The bottom line: there are ever more people to feed and a declining ability to feed them all. We face a set of paralyzing trade-offs. Yes, we could bring more land into cultivation, but that would knock down the remaining rainforests and eliminate our carbon sinks. Yes, we could attempt another Green Revolution by imposing industrial agriculture on small farmers, but that requires cheap oil (for fertilizer) and plentiful water (for irrigation) that we simply don't have. Yes, we could launch a dramatic anti-poverty campaign -- think the UN Millennium Development Goals squared - that would eventually drive down population growth. But all those new entrants into the middle class would begin to consume a great deal more meat, and therefore grain, just as the no-longer-poor are doing in China and India.

Our basis for life on this planet has become tremendously fragile. Most of us are dependent on industrial agriculture -- which means cheap energy to run the machinery and produce the fertilizer, plentiful land and water, and a temperate climate. This system of industrial agriculture is now under threat. Energy is no longer cheap. We are approaching Peak Land and Peak Water. And the climate is getting seriously out of whack.

The current food crisis is an early warning, and it looks as though we're ignoring it. We dismissed an even earlier warning, when North Korea suffered a major famine in the late 1990s because of rising energy prices, limited land, and environmental stresses. "After the attacks of September 11, 2001, 'We are all Americans' briefly became a popular expression of solidarity around the world," I write in Mother Earth's Triple Whammy. "If we don't devise policy choices that address energy, agriculture, and climate, while replacing the idolatry of unrestrained growth at the heart of both capitalist and communist economies, the tagline for the 21st century may be: 'We are all North Koreans.'"

Click here to read the rest at Foreign Policy In Focus.

 
 

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- AninditaDey See Profile I'm a Fan of AninditaDey

Yes, I fully agree with John that the current food crisis is an early warning and we must get ourselves geared up for future. However, in my opinion, the preparedness should encompass more than just devising "policy choices that address energy, agriculture, and climate". Besides above mentioned facets, it should be a holistic approach to address spread of HIV/AIDs, rampant gender inequality particularly in developing and underdeveloped world, and reducing intra- and inter-zonal disparities on all aspect of livelihood.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:59 AM on 06/25/2008
- seawolf77 See Profile I'm a Fan of seawolf77

Corn based ethanol is baloney. The only reason it is ongoing is becasue the world seems placated watching a bunch of silly old white men telling them something they know in their hearts to be false is true and correct. The only thing sugar is good for is making alcohol and cavities in your teeth. It has energy content obviously, but little or no nutritional value at all. Switch to sugar based ethanol. It's only a matter of time and it is the ONLY proven biofuel that works on a national scale....Brazil. BUY SUGAR.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 03:33 PM on 06/24/2008
- solarenergy See Profile I'm a Fan of solarenergy

Every time I meet an agricultural specialist -- ag engineers, horticulturalists, university researchers -- I ask them what is the most efficient photosynthetic conversion rate, that is, what percentage of solar energy falling on a plant's surface area is converted to stored energy in the plant's tissues.

Sugar cane is about the best at 1%. Others are less. The annual conversion efficiency of corn, wheat, rice, potatoes, and soybeans typically ranges from 0.1% to 0.4%.

http://www.life.uiuc.edu/govindjee/paper/gov.html#58

Commercially available photovoltaic panels produce electricity at 18% efficiency, making them 18 times as efficient as sugar cane, and 40 times as efficient as corn.

Solar thermal panels, even cheap ones, can capture 65% of the sunlight falling on them as heat.

So, using ethanol, is not the way to go, long term.

Nevertheless, the advantages of ethanol include:

A. A dollar spent on ethanol stays here, it isn't sent overseas.
B. Carbon released from burning ethanol is part of today's carbon cycle...it is neutral wrt increasing atmospheric carbon loading.
C. Many models in the current vehicle fleet can use a blend of ethanol/gasoline without conversion expenses
D. It can be delivered via current fuel delivery infrastructure.
E. It is a storage medium of solar energy.

So in the short term ethanol can play a role in making a transition. But direct use of solar energy should be the long range goal of a comprehensive energy policy.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:58 PM on 06/24/2008
- JScott See Profile I'm a Fan of JScott

Well at least someone mentioned the elephant in the room-overpopulation, I guess that's a start.

I mean can you imagine if the rest of the planet did what China and India are doing with their economies, there would be NO WAY that the earth could sustain that.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:45 AM on 06/24/2008
- kingcityguru See Profile I'm a Fan of kingcityguru

Thank goodness for increased CO2 production that plants are using to grow bigger and faster.

The solution is end the production of ethanol from corn. Do that, and all prices will fall.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:41 AM on 06/24/2008
- crushyourtv See Profile I'm a Fan of crushyourtv

Two culprits come to mine (actually a lot more than two-- but the most glaring): The current administration's stonewalling of effective family planning efforts worldwide and the Catholic Church and other religious organization's promotion of unfettered reproduction to further their church power. These coupled with the peak of oil production and the big bucks available to farmers to grow poor ethanol producing crops like corn AND the huge number of acres devoted to cattle feed to keep our insatiable addiction to beef happy and you will have fewer food resourses for a growing population.

Instead of urging our young people to serve in pointless illegal wars, how about they enlist in service to educate and enrich third world peoples on how to empower themselves by having fewer children and use their land in sustainable fashions?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:38 AM on 06/24/2008
- Idytme See Profile I'm a Fan of Idytme

The elephant in the room is the world population. In 1900 we had about 1.5 Billion. In 1970 we had about 3 Billion people, and now we have over 6 Billion. We are projected to have 9 Billion by 2050. The bottom line is that we cannot feed all these people and to talk about lowering populations is politically incorrect in almost every single political system.
It destroys Neocon capitalism because it depends on having more young workers than older workers. It offends most all people of a religious nature. It bothers liberals who worry about individual freedoms.
Humans are like weeds. We are very good at reproducing and we are very good at creating niches in all environmental systems.
Mother nature has ways of handling over populations - I took a whole course on it in college. If we don't solve overpopulation, she will - with famine, disease, starvation and all the rest.
We are at the point where one countries drought will effect the entire global food supply. Neocon capitalism has driven out all food stores in exchange for an "efficient global system" No matter how efficient our agriculture we cannot feed everyone in this world, and we no longer have the grain reserves we used to have, even in the United States.
We cannot get more efficient and still win, because weather is still going to knock out even efficient crops. We are at the limit of what this globe can produce.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:50 AM on 06/24/2008
- emsique See Profile I'm a Fan of emsique

Here is the 6 billion pound elephant in the room: TOO MANY PEOPLE ON THIS PLANET. Humanity's attitude about reproduction is really what is going to doom us. We have a religious nut bag government here that does nothing to promote sensible family planning either in the US or around the world. Major religions encourage people to have lots of kids.

China's government may have a lot of flaws, but one thing it recognized and is doing something about is its massive population. They have been implementing for years a one child per family policy. They make an exception for farming families, and many people hate it, but when you see how crowded, polluted and overused the land is, you begin to understand why they are doing it. There are other down sides to it, especially families choosing to have a male child, creating a substantial gender gap, but it is a necessity.

We could go a long way to stop this by encouraging people to have only two children, providing birth control and education, and abortion without the hassle. Having a massive family is not a basic human right. It strains our already overburdened planet. Nature will ultimately prevail. There will be famine, wars, and pandemics, all because of our unfettered sex drives.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:36 AM on 06/24/2008
- darcy See Profile I'm a Fan of darcy

It's been obvious to me since I was in fourth grade that the human population explosion would eventually result in starvation, disease, and pollution. The culprit is religion, which keeps countries from setting up workable programs to prevent population growth.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:20 AM on 06/24/2008
- Rule Of Law See Profile I'm a Fan of Rule Of Law

Yeah--things have changed. Used to be we could depend on the Catholic Church to whip up a good Holy War somewhere that would take care of overpopulation while enriching Rome, all at the same time. Now, they are borrowing from the right wing born again church political agenda to gain conservative converts to breed a whole new generation of faithful.

Remember when one of the popes in the 60's when asked about birth control and overpopulation said, "There will always be room for more at the table of life." Maybe the starving and homeless in Rome could begin lining up outside the kitchen door of the Vatican and see how that works out for them...

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:03 PM on 06/24/2008
- Biofuelsimon See Profile I'm a Fan of Biofuelsimon

If you take food out of the market and, if demand is increasing too, its price will rise... I thought that the comments by Bodman and Schafer to the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources on June 11 were interesting. If only because they tried to quantify the effects of biofuels on the price of food in the US. (You can read their full report here http://www.usda.gov/documents/Chairman_Bingaman_Signed_w_Enclosure.pdf (the annexes are, of course, the best bits)).

The US has been shielded from the effects of rising food costs by rising energy costs, because the cost of ingredients in processed food is generally a smaller proportion of the cost than energy and marketing. So it doesn't matter if the corn component in cornflakes goes up 100% to 6cents/box that is hidden by the much larger rise in the cost of the energy component.

If you buy sacks of corn to take home to mill and grind to make bread though then you notice the price rise.

I don't think that existing biofuels are the answer, second generations fuels or fuels based on waste organic material might go some way to making up any oil deficit. Non food crops might also help, but significant improvements in fuel efficiency would go a long way too. That's what Obama and McCain should be standing on in the election. But they wont.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 05:02 AM on 06/24/2008
- mulegino See Profile I'm a Fan of mulegino

Essentially the same old Malthusian argument that pops up every few decades.
"Peak land", "Peak cultivation" "peak oil", etc.
99.99% of the worlds population [those not members of the global elite] are caught between two giant pincers, the malthusians on the right, who preach globalization, worship of the free market, and perpetual wars, and the malthusians on the left who preach "overpopulation," global warming catastrophism, environmental cataclysm, and the limited carrying capacity of "mother gaia".
Both extremes have their own apolacytic scenarios and pseudo-religious terminology, with the same goal in mind-to reduce the standard of living overall, and bring about , via elite management, the reduction of the lower and middle classes to the status of managed, manorial serfs, serving alternately as cheap labor or plentiful cannon fodder.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:32 AM on 06/24/2008
- SeriousBlack See Profile I'm a Fan of SeriousBlack

The fact that a single planet floating in the emptiness of space (therefore meaning that on a planetary scale it is a CLOSED environment) has a "limited carrying capacity", is simply basic logic. It is not an apcalyptic, pseudo-religious extreme concept.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:27 AM on 06/24/2008
- mtaylor90028 See Profile I'm a Fan of mtaylor90028

good job mulegino. The other posters post nonsense, you post exactly what it is.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:29 AM on 06/24/2008
- jackpinesavage See Profile I'm a Fan of jackpinesavage

nice post.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:33 AM on 06/24/2008
- wexler47 See Profile I'm a Fan of wexler47

Wrong. It's you who are relying on pseudo-religious terminology. Rather than point out the flaws in the argument, you simply dismiss it. This kind of obliviousness is very dangerous and frustrating to hear expressed by an ostensibly intelligent person (capable of coining such phrases as "pseudo-religious terminology")

Do you think that oil is an infinite resource?

Have you bothered to learn about land degradation?

This is the true religious mentality, the idea that God will take care of us in the end, so we can exhaust the world's resources as fast as we want without bothering to think about the future. All that matters is YOUR standard of living.

Sick.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:55 AM on 06/24/2008
- mulegino See Profile I'm a Fan of mulegino

It is you who are sick, and deny history. No, oil is not an infinite resource. Nuclear power is the most efficient, cheapest and best source of power generation, as even the former head of Greenpeace now acknowledges. Nuclear power, despite all the protestations of the environmental fascists, can be used safely and has many collateral benefits, such as the desalinization of the coolant water.
The fact is that the 7 billion or so human beings who populate the planet now enjoy on the whole a better standard of living than the 1 billion or so that inhabited the earth at the turn of the 19th century, thanks to progress and technology. Of course there are famines, unrest and degradation-just as there is production, technology and regeneration.
And yes, in case you haven't noticed, many radical environmentalists do use "pseudo-religious" terminology, as well as apocalyptic, end times scenarios. What is the "Gaia hypothesis" if not superstitious claptrap?
Mindless fear is the enduring enemy of freedom. If the environmental Malthusians have their way, our life, liberty and our pursuit of happiness will be long gone before the polar bears.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:58 PM on 06/24/2008
- Cathexis See Profile I'm a Fan of Cathexis

Thanks, wex, for saving me the effort of posting that rebuttal. Well said.

Dismissing an assertion, without providing an accompanying rationale, is not dismissing it at all.

Identifying two poles, again without rationale, does not indicate they are in fact the "extremes," not does it mean that one or the other is not reality.

You'll need to do some 'splainin' mugelino, if you want engage us in debate -- or even thought.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:43 PM on 06/24/2008
- solarenergy See Profile I'm a Fan of solarenergy

At least part of the current problem -- the 83 % increase in food prices -- is caused by investors fleeing the financial sectors (housing crash) and the doldrums of Wall Street. They bid up prices for commodities. The markets churn, an opportunity for a few in the know. They can make money going up, or down. They just don't make much when a market is flat.

Thus, there is incentive to hype, to fear monger, and to exploit fear.

This is where responsible government would step in and halt the speculation, as well as encourage a diverse system of agriculture not subject to manipulation on a large scale -- a return to family owned small farms that produce seasonal crops, home gardening and rewards for using less fossil fuel energy in the production of crops, rather than rewarding the opposite, as is done now.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:17 AM on 06/24/2008
- hoopesaz See Profile I'm a Fan of hoopesaz

Oh, not the evil investors again. Go after Obama, his ethanol plan and his ethanol lobyists. Plans to turn mass amounts of food into fuel, that's where you should start your search.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:42 AM on 06/24/2008
- solarenergy See Profile I'm a Fan of solarenergy

Every time I meet an agricultural specialist -- ag engineers, horticulturalists, university researchers -- I ask them what is the most efficient photosynthetic conversion rate, that is, what percentage of solar energy falling on a plant's surface area is converted to stored energy in the plant's tissues.

Sugar cane is about the best at 1%. Others are less. The annual conversion efficiency of corn, wheat, rice, potatoes, and soybeans typically ranges from 0.1% to 0.4%.

http://www.life.uiuc.edu/govindjee/paper/gov.html#58

Commercially available photovoltaic panels produce electricity at 18% efficiency, making them 18 times as efficient as sugar cane, and 40 times as efficient as corn.

Solar thermal panels, even cheap ones, can capture 65% of the sunlight falling on them as heat.

So, using ethanol, is not the way to go, long term.

Nevertheless, the advantages of ethanol include:

A. A dollar spent on ethanol stays here, it isn't sent overseas.
B. Carbon released from burning ethanol is part of today's carbon cycle...it is neutral wrt increasing atmospheric carbon loading.
C. Many models in the current vehicle fleet can use a blend of ethanol/gasoline without conversion expenses
D. It can be delivered via current fuel delivery infrastructure.
E. It is a storage medium of solar energy.

So in the short term ethanol can play a role in making a transition. But direct use of solar energy should be the long range goal of a comprehensive energy policy.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:06 PM on 06/24/2008
- kingcityguru See Profile I'm a Fan of kingcityguru

If you burn corn for fuel you should not be surprised if the price of other food (including corn) goes up because you have taken a large part of it from the market . Simple supply and demand -- someone needs to explain that to Obama.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:44 AM on 06/24/2008
- NoFactsJustTruth See Profile I'm a Fan of NoFactsJustTruth

I might suggest world-wide riots and war is a neoCON goal, not a problem in their eyes.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:28 AM on 06/24/2008
- brighterside See Profile I'm a Fan of brighterside

Who said that neocons are against abortion? They aren't. There version is that it supposed to take place only after conception till death.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 03:00 AM on 06/24/2008
- darker See Profile I'm a Fan of darker

"Suddenly" there are ever more people to feed and a declining ability to feed them all??
There were just as many last week as there are right now!

What's changed?

Now FOOD CORPORATIONS are following BIG OIL'S STRATEGY to advertise upcoming PRICE INCREASES for made-up reasons to brainwash consumers and the world with this HYPE.

Big Oil successfully increased the BOTTOM LINE by scaring the public. BIG FOOD will do the same thing. All with "fuzzy" reasons and reasoning. But they know that frightening people does work.
It's basic psychological manipulation.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:58 AM on 06/24/2008
- bbrecht See Profile I'm a Fan of bbrecht

Well, and, our systems of food production are in the hands of just a few and are expensive to maintain-- especially with high oil prices. If the corporations get their way they will have patented all life on the planet. We wont care until we're hungry.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:31 AM on 06/24/2008
- tompoe See Profile I'm a Fan of tompoe

Or, we can revisit our military budget, shift 15 or 20% to our domestic budget, and reset Wall Street on the right path to responsible economics. Your choice.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:24 PM on 06/23/2008
- heal57 See Profile I'm a Fan of heal57

tompoe, sounds great to me. I have hope.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:13 AM on 06/24/2008
- marko77 See Profile I'm a Fan of marko77

This "crisis" boils down to "supply and demand." In what way? With an increased"demand" for food, the supply will be limited artifically, resulting in high prices and starvation for millions.

This is nothing new. There is plenty of food, but people's desire for profit will prove disastrous for millions.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:23 PM on 06/23/2008
- Aaror See Profile I'm a Fan of Aaror

Mark,
I think what the author is saying, which I tend to agree with, is that there won't be plenty of food in a few years.
Food requires water, soil (or nutrients, if using aquaculture), and sun. We will have plenty of sun, but the other two will be a problem. Aquaculture is still very expensive, so in the short/mid term you need land to farm. If, as predicted, 30% of the land that currently can be farmed becomes desert, you will see an agracultural decline of about 30%. I have never heard that our agracultural surplus was over 30%, so we have a problem.
But hey, the only folks who will starve are poor people in distant lands, right?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:23 AM on 06/24/2008
- marko77 See Profile I'm a Fan of marko77

Aaror: I think I understand you points, and agree, except I think there has always been enough to go around and will continue to be so in the future. People are capable of solutions, which could include eating far less meat, which would increase the grain surplus.

The problem is selfishness.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:16 AM on 06/24/2008
- jneems See Profile I'm a Fan of jneems

I'm concerned that the likes of Monsanto will use this as an excuse to force their engineered crops on th