In the latest Gallup poll, Obama has a significant margin for the second day in a row, beating McCain 47% to 42%.
See the complete trend of Gallup polls since March 7 here.
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This is just disgusting and a hallmark of Bush........ he abandoned all hope...
can we get it back?
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080705/benefit_battles.html
47%-42% is significant??? Looks like fuzzy math by Gallup, or whoever wrote this article.
It's evidently outside the margin of error, which means (in statistical lingo) it's "significant." But I would say it's meaningless, as all national polls are meaningless. Realclearpolitics has a day-by-day breakdown of the state polls translated into an electoral college map that is much more informative.
Now that land lines are being spied on I would think that every day, the unlisted cell phone number people are not being polled. Also many of our young voters are not being polled due to the cell phone generational hole.
We all know that the news agencies need a dead heat for their viewer ratings. The Gallup poll never changes much because it is done each day. Also the target people that are polled can be weighted to show any result desired.
This is all just SPIN people.
it's June....waaaaaay too early to worry about this stuff. Let's not get hysterical folks and drink the kool-aid of the MSM who seems to be giving McBush a free pass, while Obama remains under scrutiny.Let's not buy into it.
Let him move to the right and pick up some evangelicals and middle of the road Republicans. He's got my vote, your vote and about 40 million others. Let him play politics and get elected. That's the game.
Ditto!
Those polls are grossly in-adequate anyway. No-body under 25 has a land line, in fact i know people over 30 who don't have land lines.
amen..!
I think Obama is fizzling out. Add to that the torturous length of the whole process and it is no small wonder so many get SICK OF SEEING the candidates, SICK OF HEARING the media babbling idiots, and SICK OF KNOWING that no matter how they vote, these are politicians who will never live up to their promises, politicians that are bought and paid form the day they take their first step towards running for office, politicians, nothing more, nothing less.
I think OBama is only geting started. Meanwhile McCain has had four months to shape his message, months he has, for he most part, frittered away.
Honestly, I think O'bama needs to go back to talking to the big crowds with his speeches. Him doing all of this acting with the normal people of America isn't even being covered by the MSM and it also allows the MSM to manipulate that issue, which they are doing.
O'bama needs to campaign using big crowds that are gathering to see him. It will force the MSM to covering him and highlight his speeches.
Sure campaigning on basically just the issues is a good thing. But nothing shows a stronger message when there are large crowds waving to O'bama and calling for change. He needs to get back into doing that again.
Big speeches won't work for moderates and conservatives. They want issues and experience. The change message has been played. That's the problem. O's base is tapped.
I agree, he needs to do big speeches much more often, and of the caliber of his speech in Iowa, his Primary acceptance speech, and so on.
What's with this picture of Obama? Couldn't find a terrible one of Michelle to use, so opted for a terrible one of Obama, instead.
After Bush won in 2004, I will never again underestimate the sheer stupidity of the American voter.
I have a bad feeling about November.
me too ... puma ? NOT !
I too have a bad feelihg about November, but my bad feeling revolves around Obama' discarding his candidate of change face, and donning his two faces of McSame and McBush.
Come Nov, We The Sheeple may be so confused we'll merely stay home..
'O' looks cute here.
Ok, I said it. : D
Nations get the leaders they deserve. Uneducated, underachieving, complacent Americans deserve a third Bush term. More war, higher gas prices, big job losses, bring it on cowboy!
BO: 47%
Mc: 42%.
Well within th emargin of error with 11% of those polled were undecided.
I would not call this a significant lead. In fcat, given how the GOP is so unpopular I'm surprised MC is managing a statistical dead heat.
It is called a significant lead because it fits the statistical definition of a significant lead. Your opinion can't change the math or the reality.
Darn facts, always ruining Daisy's day!
Don't forget that half of the voting population voted for Bush twice. Once after he had already screwed up Iraq. There is no reason to think that the Democrats "should" be way ahead. This is just a myth that every talking head has mindlessly repeated without actually considering the fatcs.
Just this morning I heard on MSN (Scarborough) that Obama's lead went down to one point. It figures. It really depends on who you'r listening to I guess. Once again, the public has to do it's own sorting out to get the truth.
Even with a 5 point lead, while technically is in the margin of error, the media will never say Obama leads, but more likely they candidates are in a "dead heat." That's their favorite term. They used it when he was ahead of Hillary and they use it when he's ahead of McCain. I want Obama to win and don't care how much he wins by, BUT I'd love to see him kick ass and when really big.
The reason that most reliable polls are based on a sampling of 500 or more respondents is to minimize the margin of error to the point that what appears to be a lead is actually an unambiguous lead, as is presently the case for Barack Obama. It is not a huge lead, such as that implied by recent Newsweek and L.A. Times polls, but a lead nevertheless.
A 5 point lead isn't within the margin of error. The margin of error for Gallup is 2 points. The RCP composite poll has 0bama leading nationally by 5.4 points.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
Obama's move to "the middle", seems to be working, the left should cut him some slack
Two weeks ago he was up by 15 points and 12 points in two separate polls, respectively.
Following his moves to the right (not the center), he's up by 5 points.
So the move does seem to be working... for McCain.
Those polls have been proven inaccurate. They polled too many dems proportionally.
Sorry, he was up 12 in the LA Times poll and 15 in the Newsweek poll.
Not in the Gallup polls. He was up 15 and 12 in the LA Times and Newsweek polls. Very different. In the gallup polls he was at 45-45 pretty consistently. Keep it straight.
HE IS UP BY 15 IN MORE THEN 3 OTHER POLLS
Only one poll had him up by 15. Another had him up by 12.
The othe TEN polls had him up by 2 to 6 points.
Go look at the RCP averages -- he's got a 5.4 point lead with over 10% undecided.
It's a statistical dead heat.
What percentage is "dead heat" to you? 20% margin?
A statistical dead heat is a tie. That is how it is defined by statisticians. There is no way that a 5.4 point lead could possibly be defined as a statistical dead heat.
The facts strike again!
Don't trust polls AT ALL. Take nothing for ganted until election day. We CANNOT let this moment slip away.
| July 2, 2008 09:11 AM