Obama Lead In Newsweek Poll Drops From 15 To 3

I wasn't especially excited when Newsweek said Barack Obama enjoyed a 15-point lead over John McCain three weeks ago, and I'm not especially discouraged now that Newsweek shows Obama leading by three now.

The news wasn't all bad for Obama. The same poll showed that 61% of his backers support him "strongly," while for McCain, the numbers are reversed -- 61% of his backers don't support him "strongly."

Read the whole story here.

Comments

[Sabreen60]

One major problem with polls is that people are called on land-lines. A lot of young folks have cell phones. So they are completely missed. Also I think the MSM has helped to perpetuate this so-called flip flop on Iraq, which was not a flip flop.

[Deaninphilly]

Not true. A lot of the people called are involved in politics as it is. Those others that are dialed randomly are dialed by area code and prefix. They make no distinction between landline and cell.

[TommyMcCarthy]

Just a word about one other aspect of this "Independent" dynamic. I cant PROVE it, but I "feel" it so strongly I could say I know it.

I was a strong Hillary supporter, and I continue to believe she was the better candidate. However Dem. voters chose otherwise and Obama has and WILL have my full support.

Without belaboring the point, what was done to President and Mrs. Clinton....largelyin the weeks surrounding the S. Carolina primary was apalling, disgusting....I mean I could use every adjective in the dictionary.....and it made me very VERY angry. These people are lifelong civil rights advocates and to phony up a case that they are closet racists was simply awful. The worst part is that several million (uninformed) people now take this as GOSPEL . It's just awful.

To Obama's credit he did not PERSONALLY say some of the uglier things, but he was their beneficiary.

Despite that, for me (and the Clintons, by the way) it's a no-brainer that Obama must be supported, and must be succsessful at this crucial time. I think he'll be terriffic. I think there are MANY who are as angry as I WAS and are polling as Indy/ leaning McCain.

Excluding those who are simply Racists......no one who truly supports what Bill and Hillary Clinton stand for could CONSIDER not supporting Obama fully.

Obama will get ALL those currently with their nose out of joint excluding racists.

Landslide '08 ...............American resurgence beginning Jan 09

tm

[Nonamnesiac]

Obama ahead by 15 points in polls when he clearly says: (1) all US troops and contractors out of Iraq within 16 months; (2) he'll filibuster FISA and telecom immunity; (3) DC law on guns a good law.

Obama ahead by 3 points in polls only 1 month later after he says: (1) maybe we'll be out of Iraq in 16 months and maybe we won't; (2) he votes for expanded infringements of Constitutional rights in FISA and lies about it and also votes to immunize telecoms from their criminal activity; (3) he favors Supreme Court decision overruling DC law on guns; and (4) he supports religion in government.

Pundits say the hard move to the right by Obama had nothing to do with his decline in the polls. What a crock. He is going to lose because of his moves to the right. Millions will not vote for him when he votes to fund war crimes, just because he has a "D" label and says he's not doing what he's doing.

[BLinCincinnati]

Everyone makes a big deal out of these national polls when they mean absolutely nothing. They are measuring basically a "popular vote" when we don't elect on a popular vote. It's the state polls that matter.

JFK beat Nixon 303 to 219 with just a 0.2% lead in popular vote.
Carter beat Ford 297 to 240, with a 2% lead.
Reagan beat Carter 489 to 49 in the EC, but it was just over a 9% popular vote lead.
Bush beat Dukakis 426 to 111, with a bit under 8% popular vote total.
Clinton beat Dole 379 to 159, with just over 8% lead.
Al Gore beat GWB by 543,895 votes, about 0.5%, but lost 271 to 266.

The national popular vote, or polls which measure that, mean little. You can have a blow out in EC vote with a small popular lead difference, you can even win the popular vote and lose the EC.

State polls matter. And this site seems to be the best for showing state polls in an EC graph of the country: http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[Lemeritus]

Breakfast, lunch and going on dinner break!

[TheRealMacDaddy]

Well, let's see what the upcoming polls show after McCain's "Whiner-gate". Me thinks, ol' Johnnie Boy is gonna fall like a stone from the top of the Empire State Bldg.

With the week McCain's experienced he's going to be lucky if he can even get GWB and Dick(less) Cheney to go fund raising for him.

I just wish all of this had happened around the end of September instead of now. Americans have developed a short attention span and an even shorter memory.

[Lemeritus]

Moderators on lunch break?

[TommyMcCarthy]

Hello old friend........Yes volume must be WAY up. Methinks the staff must be BURIED.

It's taking HOURS for comments to post.

Highest regards
tm

[Lemeritus]

Hey, Tommy! Maybe we should volunteer to moderate on the weekends??

Are you feeling as politically hung-over as I am?

[katok]

Congratulations Mr. Obama, you have picked up the center! Unfortunately, their is no one home. You traded our Constitution for a 12 point decline in polling. Heckuv a job!

[nodonjuan]

And if we listen to polls in February Clinton/Giuliani would be the nominees.

[Independent_voter]

Good move Obama - shafting the left wing of the party on FISA, government funded religion etc. will cost you a lot of support and donations. Keep sucking up to the right wing. Oops - meant keep refining

[TheJibreelaMonsters]

I like how polls magically don't matter again with Sen Obama is not doing too well.

[HumeSkeptic]

Rasmussen Tracking poll shows that 0bama has lost 6 points since July 1.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com

Gallup Tracking poll numbers are relatively constant - 0bama leading by about 4 points.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/108763/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Maintains-Advantage.aspx

It is more meaningful to look at the trends in the polls by the same organization, than "average" of all polls.

[TruthHasSpoken]

If they are sampling 88% of the white vote they'll find fluctuations like this one similar to the Bradley effect. In the GE white in the electorate is about 68%, O only needs about 30%, scoring 10%(12% of electorate) from African americans (Gave Kerry 88% to in 04 elections). Hispanics around 15%, he can score about 9% since he has about 61% lead amongst this group..Then the rest of the 2% from others..That should score him around 51%, this could be a blow out come nov. But the demographic can change considering there is a lot of enthusiasm for him the electorate could swing 20% for AA and young voters could also tilt the white vote more in his favor.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/7/12/124829/538/624/550584

[UnbiasView]

I think the only cause for concern should be that people ran with a far left publication's poll that wasn't backed up by any number of polls. Never trust Time, NT Times or Newsweek.

[HumeSkeptic]

Newsweek is a far-left publication only for those who would consider Musslini as a centrist.

Besides, you are contradicting yourself because the same "far-left" publication is now showing a drop in 0bama's numbers.

Think much?

[truthyguy]

No way the poll is accurate. With the headlines everyday being worse for everything from oil prices, to the economy, to mortgage crisis, to Iraq and Afghanistan, to .. you name it ... - there is no way support for republican politicians and Bush and Bush-Lite have increased (directly or indirectly) by 12 points.