In a campaign season in which most polling news tends to bring good news to Democrats, yesterday's delivery is remarkably strong for the McCain campaign and should serve as a reminder that, however much red states like North Carolina and Alaska have shifted blue, Obama is very far from having put away the states he needs to win the presidency:
First, Obama is unable to open any sort of significant lead in Gallup and Rasmussen's national tracking polls, despite predictions that he would benefit from the intense coverage of his foreign trip. The two candidates are tied at 46% in Rasmussen and Obama has a 3% lead (down from 6% yesterday) in Gallup in what is Gallup's first poll entirely taken after Obama left the United States.
In Ohio, Rasmussen contradicts yesterday's PPP survey and finds McCain with a solid lead: 46% to 40%, 52% to 42% with leaners. That's an improvement over the 1% edge he had last month. Obama's favorability rating is only at 50%, compared to 57% for McCain.
In New Hampshire, ARG revists last month's finding that Obama had a large 12% lead and finds him ahead 47% to 45% thanks a slight lead among independent voters.
In Florida, ARG also shows the numbers shifting in McCain's direction. Contrary to the 5% lead Obama enjoyed last month, McCain now gets 47% to Obama's 45%. The sample's partisan breakdown is good for Democrats, but Obama only gets 73% of the Democratic vote. The two candidates are tied among Hispanics, suggesting the Cuban vote remains solidly anchored in the Republican camp.
In Michigan, the reputable pollster EPIC-MRA finds a toss-up, with Obama narrowly besting McCain 43% to 41%, well within the survey's margin of error. McCain was ahead by 4% in EPIC's May poll, so this is progress for Obama, but it is also much closer to what other recent polls had been suggesting.
Only in Colorado does Obama's situation improve in Rasmussen's latest poll. The Democrat leads 49% to 42% but only 50% to 47% with leaners included. Here again, Obama has a problem with his favorability rating: 48% of respondents view him unfavorably (31% very) versus 39% for McCain.
For McCain to be leading in a poll from Ohio and from Florida on the same day while also pulling into a toss-up in Michigan's most reputable poll is certainly cause for Republicans to celebrate, particularly when both the FL and OH surveys show the Arizona Senator progressing by 7%. This also serves as a reminder that toss-up states (like Ohio) are defined not only by consistently tight results (as we have seen in New Hampshire yesterday and today) but also by the fact that there is no agreement between polls as to who is leading or by what margin.
What is especially problematic for the Obama campaign is today's polls is the high unfavorable ratings he is suffering from, not only in Ohio but also in Colorado. In both of these states McCain does disproportionately well when leaners are pushed (gaining a net 4% in both states), suggesting that undecided voters have a surprisingly negative view of the Illinois Senator. This echoes the ceiling problem I talked about yesterday -- but that discussion concerned Southern red states, not swing states in which Obama has to do well.
Obama has to go from the low-to-mid 40s to the high 40s in swing states. It is obvious that this will not be easy in the red states he is targeting; but his high unfavorables in states like Ohio and Colorado could be more damaging.
That said, Colorado remains a huge problem for McCain: he has never led in an independent Colorado poll and this is the day's only poll in which he shows no progress. With Colorado and Iowa, Obama would only need two more electoral votes to reach the presidency -- and a lot of states to get those from.
Down-the-ballot polls were also released today from two crucial Senate races Democrats are counting on:
In New Hampshire's Senate race, ARG finds Sen. Sununu drowning. After trailing by 14% in the last two polls of the group (a margin that we found in other institutes as well), Sununu is now distanced 58% to 36% by former Governor Jeanne Shaheen. That includes an 18% lead among independents.
In Colorado's Senate race, however, Rasmussen is back to finding a toss-up after two months of Udall expanding his lead. He is now ahead 47% to 43% for Republican Bob Schaffer, 49% to 46% with leaners.
Both parties can celebrate over these numbers. Some Republicans want to believe that John Sununu can catch up to Jeanne Shaheen and that his war chest will allow him to hit back in the coming months. Every poll that comes out finds the Democrat up double-digit, and by a smashing 22% in ARG's latest poll. The GOP is increasingly entering Santorum-territory in this race, and there is little evidence that New Hampshire voters are willing to give any Republican but John McCain a chance.
On the other hand, Mark Udall has been unable to pull ahead for a year now despite predictions that it would be difficult for the GOP to hold on to this open seat. While polls in recent months have found Udall starting to inch ahead to a high-single digit lead, that is the least that we could expect given that Schaffer has been hit by controversies (including his connections to Jack Abramoff). And Rasmussen's poll suggests that Udall has still been unable to open a comfortable lead.
Read More at Daiel Nichanian's blog, Campaign Diaries.
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Sen. Barack Obama will be elected in November as the next, 44th president of the United States.
You say this after reading these polls...........#1 on hit parade..."Beautiful Dreamer."
Rasmussen is a noted conservative republican who is a regular consultant on Fox News. Take what he says with a grain of salt. Somehow, his polls are always lower than others for Obama, especially where it matters. He'll throw in some better numbers in places where it isn't crucial and he'll do enough to try to keep his credibility, but from what I can tell, he is regularly slanted against the dem.
God, we Americans never learn do we? How bad does it have to get before we stop putting incompetent, babbling, warmongering, neo-con Republicans in office? I guess the economy is not bad enough yet. Gas prices are not high enough yet. The national debt needs to be higher, we need more unemployment, more stagnant wages and home forclosures. More banks need to fail, we need to start more wars, and need to make the rich even richer. Things aren't bad enough yet that is the problem. Maybe they will be after 4 years of McCa1n. It is sad but true, American stupidity is limitless, unbelievable.
Rasmusson and Gallup are conservative polling organizations.
These polls are not that close, the media has to do something until Nov 4,
So they are attempting to make it a race instead of a rout.
The only pollster that was close was Zogby.
This race lies on whether or not Obama can pick up Colorado and New Mexico and keep the Gore
and Kerry map.
Obama is ahead by 12 points at least here in WA.
Why on God's earth would ANYONE sane want 4 more years of GWBush and 4 more years of
war and death?
I wonder why nobody ever states the obvious about all these polls: they are madeby calling landline phones. I've gotten so i don't even answer my landline half the time because there's either a recording telling me it's my last chance to get a loan for my credit card (which has no balance) or somebody asking me for money. Then there are the younger Obama voters who live on their cell phones and very often don't even have a cell phone.
It's pretty apparent that many of the Obama constituency are never asked for their opinion. Or they just don't anwer their phones - like me.
My feeling is most "undecided" middle of the road white folks are looking for any reason not to vote for Obama. I've always thought this. I said it of the Ohio polling numbers the came out other day that showed Obama with the lead, I said you can easily add a 5 point swing for McCain because white folks wouldn't be honest with the pollster. Hell 90% of Americans believe America is ready for a black president, some would say that's pretty good but I'd say that leaves a hell of a lot of wiggle room for McCain and none for Obama. We'll see but despite Obama's great reception over seas the reality in terms of him convincing white Americans he's better for the job then McCain is a 45 degree up hill battle. Believe it.
The polls are showing that people think McCain is more prepared to lead this country than 0-man.
That is what Hill was trying to say when she brought up the C&C issue during the campaign.....and it is showing in the polls. I look at McCain and say he is not a good candidate as far as campaigning, but he has the advantage with being around a long time, a military background, in fact a hero's reputation, he has a history of being a maveric and the bottom line for me is I think he loves his country and wants to do the best for the country regardless of party affiliation. If people see his like that, and it seems many do, then 0-man is in big trouble. There are two things that no one knows about this GE. 1. What will be the PUMA effect, and 2. What wil be the Bradley effect.... No one knows, and no one will know until the GE. But to assume this is a Democratic year, and it should be by all indicator, is not something you can do this year.
If I were the DNC I'd be concerned.
I won't really start taking polling serious until after the debates, however it's worrisome that McCain make these sort of gains when Obama is doing so well in the press and McCain is making so many errors. Seems very fishy. The pubs want to steal this election and it has to be close in order for that to happen. I just hope we can keep the election clean and not have a shortage of voting machines in democratic precincts and no tampering with the electronic machines. The big question is this: How can we insure this doesn't happen?
The polls are rigged, and are designed to provide psychological setup for the Repugnants to steal the election. If people across the country can be convinced that the margins are truly slim, disparities between exit polls and DRE computer-counts (un-auditable, un-trackable) either won't show up, or will be statistically small, and will confirm "what everybody already knew." Slick. Never underestimate the guile of Power when Power is threatened...and never underestimate the readiness of Power (or the Repugnants) to engage in whatever criminal behavior sustains its position. Look at what we got in 2000 and 2004 for an illustration.
WAKE UP, DEMOCRATS! The idea that "intense coverage of his foreign trip" will benefit Obama even mildly could only be true if the TV networks weren't unashamedly using that "intense coverage" to tell the voters he's all wet and turning its "intense coverage" into a megaphone for John McCain's mean, nasty comebacks -- which in the end are, alas, much more memorable than Obama's sensible policy statements.
Listen, Barack! You've gotta hit back!
Get into attack mode, Senator Obama, before it's too late to shut up these swift-boating bastards!
He hits back quickly and with Chicago determination, but will it be effective. And the swift-boating bastards haven't even begun, I doubt they will until after the convention when 0-man is the official candidate. They have the research, they have the plan and they have the patience to wait until it will have max effect.
You are exactly right! Well said!!!
I Agree ..................................
Bottom line for me, individual polls have been consistent and tracking flat for many weeks. It's easy to get caught up in the statistical noise. It's the methodological bias of individual pollsters that worries me. Work hard and vote in November.
I've been tracking state polls - RealClear Politics is my source.
Arbitrarily awarding electoral votes to each candidate based on the most recent polling results for each state (regardless if shows a +10 point lead or +1 point lead in each instance) - If the election were held today, Obama would wind up with 301 electoral votes. McGain would wind up with 237.
I also applied most-recent polling pluralities for each state to its popular vote count and then tallied up the state totals. Nationally, Obama would beat McCain by +4%.
Here's a synopsis of state results:
NICHANIAN STATES
Ohio - McCain +10 (Rassmussen 7/21)
NH - Obama +3 (U NH) 7/20
Florida - McCain + 8 (SV 7/1)
Mich - Obama +2 (Detroit News 7/20)
Colorado - Obama +3 (Rassmussen 7/20)
OTHER KEY STATES OF INTEREST
Arizona - McCain -9 (Rassmussen 6/28)
Georgia - McCain +11 (Rassmussen 7/20)
Indiana - Obama +1 (SUSA 6/23)
Iowa - Obama +10 (Rassmussen 7/15)
Louisiana - McCain +19 (Rassmussen 7/13)
Maine - Obama +8 (Rassmussen 7/18)
Minn - Obama +17 (Rassmussen 7/14)
Missouri - Obama +5 (R2000 7/10)
Montana - Obama +5 (Rassmussen 7/2)
Nevada - Obama +2 (Rassmussen 7/17)
New Jersey - Obama +9 (SV 7/17) (New Gannett poll has Obama up +16)
New Mexico - Obama +8 (Rassmussen 6/23)
Oregon - Obama +9 (Rassmussen 7/16)
Penna - Obama +4 (Rassmussen (6/22)
Virginia - Obama +2 (Rassmussen (6/22)
Wash St. - Obama +16 (SUSA 7/16)
Wisc - Obama +10 (Rassmussen 7/10)
Daily tracking polls are "rolling" polls that include data taken BEFORE Obama's trip, so Obama's "bump" if there is one, wont be seen until later on this week. It amazes me that people don't realize this.
Very good point!
The surge is working aged. The surge is calendar challenged. The surge ... it depends.
Republicans rely on the stupid (see below). An IQ score of 85 is considered mildly retarded (i.e Forrest Gump). Coincidentally Bush won the same states McCain is winning. 'Nuff said!
State Average IQ Favoring
1 Connecticut 113 Obama
2 Massachusetts 111 Obama
3 New Jersey 111 Obama
4 New York 109 Obama
5 Rhode Island 107 Obama
6 Hawaii 106 Obama
7 Maryland 105 Obama
8 New Hampshire 105 Obama
9 Illinois 104 Obama
10 Delaware 103 Obama
11 Minnesota 102 Obama
12 Vermont 102 Obama
13 Washington 102 Obama
14 California 101 Obama
15 Pennsylvania 101 Obama
16 Maine 100 Obama
17 Virginia 100 Obama
18 Wisconsin 100 Obama
19 Colorado 99 Obama
20 Iowa 99 Obama
21 Michigan 99 Obama
22 Nevada 99 McCain
23 Ohio 99 Toss-up
24 Oregon 99 Obama
25 Alaska 98 McCain
26 Florida 98 McCain
27 Missouri 98 McCain
28 Kansas 96 McCain
29 Nebraska 95 McCain
30 Arizona 94 McCain
31 Indiana 94 Obama
32 Tennessee 94 McCain
33 North Carolina 93 McCain
34 West Virginia 93 McCain
35 Arkansas 92 McCain
36 Georgia 92 McCain
37 Kentucky 92 McCain
38 New Mexico 92 McCain
39 North Dakota 92 McCain
40 Texas 92 McCain
41 Alabama 90 McCain
42 Louisiana 90 McCain
43 Montana 90 Obama
44 Oklahoma 90 McCain
45 South Dakota 90 McCain
46 South Carolina 89 McCain
47 Wyoming 89 McCain
48 Idaho 87 McCain
49 Utah 87 McCain
50 Mississippi 85 McCain
Careful! You don't want to be labeled and elitist, do you? Dumb people rule! Literally.
Much as I hate to say it, but, all this talk of offshore oil drilling and the SURGE in Iraq are going in McCain's favor.
Whether it's right or whether it's wrong, Americans want to drill in the Unted States. Period. You can show people that it won't help for years and years, but they still want to drill and will vote for whomever supports drilling. And the Iraq War - McCain's surge talk is gospel to some, and people think McCain is the one to win the war and capture bin Laden (McCain is telling people this at every chance).
Some people will never vote for Senator Obama because he's Black, or because he's young, or because of the lies and rumors that have been spread ad nauseum, or because he won the nomination from Hillary Clinton (to name a few).
Senator Obama will have surges in the polls, so will John McCain. Who will win in November? If the election were held today I would say McCain.
Sad, isn't it?
Americans will pass up the chance to have one of the greatest presidents in decades because of ignorance, fear, lack of knowledge, and, yes, racism.
VOTE SMART - VOTE OBAMA '08!
You folks like to disparage and dismiss the AOL straw poles, but again, they show *all* states championing McCain (not a trace of blue on the map). Incidentally, they were correct in 2004 in predicting Kerry's defeat.
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Posted July 23, 2008 | 08:54 AM (EST)