Paul Krugman: Partying Like It\'s 1929

Paul Krugman: Partying Like It's 1929

New York Times   |  Paul Krugman   |   March 21, 2008 09:37 PM



If Ben Bernanke manages to save the financial system from collapse, he will -- rightly -- be praised for his heroic efforts.

But what we should be asking is: How did we get here?


 

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A Brief History of the Privately owned and operated Federal Reserve ...

And what has happened since the privately owned and operated Federal reserve was established in 1913 ?

-1914 - 1920 easy money inflation ... 1921 Severe Crash

-1922 -1929 leveraged easy money inflation ........... Great Depression 1929-1940 .... 1933 Gold bullion confiscated ...

- Massive borrowing for war - Fed appeased 1940-1962

- 1963-1970 WWII debt paid, Fed not happy ... Kennedy tries Silver ... Viet Nam ramps up government spending ...

- 1971-1979 Nixon goes off gold, The Fed allows inflaion to reach 20%

- 1980 - 1986 Volcker raises interest rates to 20% to stem the tide of the previous Fed incompetence. Economy dives ... Reagan spending goes crazy,, biggest non war deficits ever.

- 1987 Greenspan causes stock market drop and lays seeds for the S&L Crisis and the bond crisis.

- 1989-1991 S&L and bond market crisis due to deregulation ...

- 1991 - 1997 further deregulation even though Congress has asked the Fed, Greenspan to regulate loan underwriting ... Greenspan does nothing begins inflating again ...

- 1998 - 1999 LTCM crisis due to leverage and derivatives leads to Asian crisis and Russian default ... The Fed inflates more, deregulates more, ,stocks go hyper bolic.

- 2000-2003 Stock Market Crash, more Fed deregulation, Fed endorses tax cuts, lowers interest rates to 1%. Iraq War funding and Tax Cuts send budget and debt hyperbolic.

- 2004-2006 Fed endorses exotic loans, refuses to regulate loan underwriting ... Derivatives markets become trillion dollar markets for the banks , the Fed declines to regulate or even offer a framework.

- 2007 Real Estate crash begins, Fed says everything is fine ....

Thomas Jefferson

"I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks] will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs."

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 03:14 PM on 03/23/2008

The Fed is not privately operated.

Control of the Fed is in the hands of the US Govt through the Board of Governors which is appointed by the President (with the advice and consent of the Senate).

If you trawl through the posts on the following pages, i've outlined control of the Fed and the all important FOMC.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 12:06 AM on 03/24/2008


Oh yeah, appointed by the President (wink, wink)...I'm really believing you now, Rog.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 09:24 AM on 03/24/2008

Given that logically are you forced to "Workers of the World, unite"?

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 07:58 AM on 03/25/2008

And then logically there is no such thing as public control and your argument is moot because there is no public control of anyting.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 07:58 AM on 03/25/2008

HuffPo is truncating my messages.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 07:41 AM on 03/25/2008

On that basis then the government is controlled by "the barons of capital" because the President does what he is told.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 07:22 AM on 03/25/2008

mmckinl

Thank You Very Much

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 07:55 PM on 03/23/2008

Thomas Jefferson was brilliant and his view on currency was absolutely correct. Your post provides a reasonable review of Fed mistakes over the last nearly 100 years. We need to abolish the Fed, end fractional reserve banking, and return to gold/commodity based currency.

Citizens should read/learn everything they can about the Fed. Turn off bubble vision and read books and the web instead. Rothbard's "The case against the Fed" is a good place to start. Learn about and understand money; our lives and society depend on it. Money interests worked for 2 decades to pass the Federal Reserve Act in 1913. And they accomplished it in W. Wilson's administration.

Andrew Jackson, founder of the modern Democratic Party, was a Sound-Currency advocate. He viewed one of his greatest achievements to be the dismantling of the Federal Bank in place during his administration. This fight has been waged for centuries. It is about power and freedom. It impacts everything, from wealth distribution, to investment/mal investment, to war, and the environment. Learn about money and fight for your country and yourselves. Stop presuming that this system works without your informed involvement.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 06:49 PM on 03/23/2008

Returning to a gold standard is not the answer. Giving the power to a Public Central Bank to create crrency is.

In having a Public Central Bank create the currency we can eliminate debt based leveraged banking altogether. Now, with the computer and the internet the Public Central Bank can be the originator of credit ! Just require all banks to loan at a 1 to 1 ratio of deposits to loans.

If the banks need money they can borrow from the Public Central Bank at interest. Now they have to pay a real interest rate to depositors, a rate higher than inflation ! We would reward frugality instead of punishing it with inflation !

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 07:23 PM on 03/23/2008

I don't really understand your case for a public bank, but would read up on it if u can suggest a source.

The Fed exists as a backstop to current banking so that we can use fractional reserve lending. I think we agree on that. But I believe gold is a good answer. It is deflationary also. Someone elsewhere remarked that having deflationary currency is bad. This is nonsense. Imagine being able to save money, or for that matter, lend it out for good use, without fear of it being debased thru purposeful inflation of the money supply. Frugality AND wise "investment" would be rewarded. Under the current system, wise AND foolish investment are rewarded, while frugality is punished. And people wonder why we"re a valueless society busy consuming and wasting precious and finite resources!

The liquidity created thru flawed Fed policy and fractional reserve banking results in mal-investment and bubbles that eventually crash. During the expansion, disproportionate rewards go to those closest to the expanded credit. The Bear Sterns bailout, and others to come, will result in socialization of losses; but the gains that preceded it were privatized (and not shared evenly). The common man looses on a relative basis going up, and will lose on both a relative and absolute basis going down. We"re about to go down "big". Thomas Jefferson understood this, and we should too.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 10:40 PM on 03/23/2008

I note that Mr. Krugman, Clinton champion that he is, neglected to mention that the foundation for our current situation (which he describes wonderfully) was laid by the repeal of Glass-Steagall under Bill. Nor does he mention that Glass-Steagall was enacted to keep the shady behavior of banks in the 20's from repeating itself.

Learning from history is not so much about what you get out of it as it is what you leave out of it.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 09:09 AM on 03/23/2008

You are correct jackinesavage. Glass-Steagall was repealed during the Clinton administrations with the help and support of Greenspan and Rubin who went on to establish the Financial Services Modernization Act, which eliminated all banking regulation and is the major contributor to the catastrophic events of today.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 03:53 PM on 03/24/2008

Someday the people of this country will open their eyes and realize that we have but one party in this country - the "capitalist" party. That party has two wings - Democratic and Republican. Both wings seem to be in the pockets of business to the detriment of those of us who need protection from business. Until we realize this we may as well be battering our heads on a wall - which is really what's happening politically today. The odd thing about the "capitalist" party is that it not really "capitalist" but socialism for the rich - the irony is too much!

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 10:45 AM on 03/24/2008

We need regulation to return to almost every facet of American life,be it financial,environmental,transportation,voting.........etc.The need for harsh penalties is even more important.If someone sticks me up with a gun and takes my money it doesn't affect my financial future much further than a week to a month.That criminal act could possibly get the guy 20 years in prison depending on circumstances and the laws in place where the crime occurred.Somehow in a our zeal to punish the criminal we have decided to throw the book at him.Yet when a respected businessman is allowed to reduce thousands of peoples assets to nothing affecting not only their clients futures but their families too, it's looked upon as"white collar crime" .That includes children unable to attend college,healthcare gone,entertainment gone,home gone,all around poverty.These "white collar criminals" are slapped on the wrist with a fine or at worst contact their political cronies and spend time in a country club prison for a short period of time.They have to suffer the agony of dinner w/o fine wine(or maybe not).In all honesty if one man is responsible for bringing misery to so many people and directly or indirectly causing the deaths of many of his/her clients, shouldn't there be a possible life sentence or even death penalty in play?.These criminals are well educated and they are the ones that a stiff penalty would deter the most.Deterence would be built into their psyche if they saw harsh penalties and complete financial ruin come to the families of "white collar criminals".Shouldn't their family have to pay the same burden as a retired couple left penniless?Shouldn't real shame be brought to bear on these swindlers instead of a 12 step program and book deals.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 08:06 AM on 03/23/2008

I think the difference between 29 and today is that in 29, the gov didnt take taxpayer money and shower failing companies with it, rewarding them for all their mistakes and greed that helped drive the economy into the ground. Also, the same type of people who in 29 felt guilt over their mistakes, some to the point of diving out windows or committing other forms of suicide are not found in todays Wall Street environment. There is no guilt for CEOs and upper management in todays failing companies. Nowadays these people make millions , if not billions in bonuses while the ships they captain sink faster than the Titanic, but are quickly floated to the surface with taxpayer money . Nope, Bernie will not fix this. Tax payer money might slow it, even stall it for a little while, but even that will run out sooner or later, and that is what this is all about isnt it? Run the Gov and the country into Reagans glorious economical Train Wreck so we have no choice but to give up all NON-corporate social programs and create an entire country of poor people in debt and willing to work for the lowest wages to keep from losing what little they have , thanks to the Bush Bankruptcy laws.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 11:17 PM on 03/22/2008

Milton Friedman and Ronald Regan are dead; let their obsolete supply side, top down economic theories die with them. David Stockman in an interview with Tom Brokaw during the Regan funeral said and I quote, "supply side, was a failure because President Regan blew up the deficit". Milton Friedman came of age and was embraced as an economist just prior to Great Depression, and I would argue that his economic theories in large part lead us into it, at least in the United States. The stock market crash of 1929 was caused by the efforts of Hubert Hoover trying the to cool down the economy way to fast.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 08:56 PM on 03/22/2008

We need a Public Central Bank. A bank that will not charge us interest on our own money. A bank that will honor its fiduciary duty to the public. A bank that will truly be independent of the interests it regulates.

The privately owned and operated Federal Reserve has throughout its ninety-five-year history promoted the interests of its members over the good of the country. Over the last twenty years we saw bubble after bubble, panic after panic, each more serious than its' predecessor and yet the mantra was always "free markets," "less regulation" and more "financial innovation." And for what? The profits of their member banks who own all the shares of the corporation known as the Federal Reserve.

This crisis is far from over, and in the meantime the public is subsidizing the very interests that caused the disaster. The problem is that there are much bigger catastrophes looming. Tens of trillions of dollars of Credit Default Swaps and hundreds of trillions of dollars in derivatives that are in a market that is not regulated and has no financial standards for counterparties and no legal framework for determinations. Our entire gross domestic product is only about 14 trillion. The loss of even a small percentage of these markets will bankrupt the country. The failure of the Federal Reserve to regulate these behemouth markets is in itself reason enough to give them the boot.

We need a Public Central Bank that will act in the interest of the country, a fiduciary duty that has always taken a back seat in the privately owned and operated Federal Reserve.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 07:44 PM on 03/22/2008

I believe the Fed has shown its true colors.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 09:23 PM on 03/22/2008

One of the primary contentions of Friedman was that Markets regulate themselves. As a casual observer of the ongoing financial commotion I couldn't help but notice the truth to this statement. Indeed the Markets, those who buy and sell financial instruments, were in the process of this "Self Regulation". The sellers had fraudulently passed off trillions of dollars in junk bonds as AAA paper. They had billions more on their books and in their managed funds. When the true nature of these highly denominated rolls of toilet paper became known last Summer and Fall, the Market rightly revalued them to nothing. This presented a problem to the criminal entities we all know and love as the Wall Street Brokerage Houses. The Market, in its infinite wisdom, did its job and was effectively puting these Racketeers out of business.

The Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department seeing that the Market was functioning set about injecting Socialism into the system. This was accomplished by first making money cheaper to borrow then loaning billions to the corrupt institutions. When the Market refused to roll over the Fed did what it had never done before, it took the worthless junk bonds that the Market had refused to buy as collateral for taxpayer dollars. When investors voted with their feet to flee one of the Houses of Ill Repute, the Fed agreed to buy outright billions of worthless paper with taxpayers dollars.

Thus when the Market that Free Enterprise lauds dared to rear its ugly head it was decapitated by Socialism in the name of Free Enterprise. Now as a homework assignment, lets all reread our Milton and find the chapter where he claims sweatshops are good.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 07:00 PM on 03/22/2008

No.

The Fed rushed in belatedly to prevent a meltdown in the financial sector and a replay of 1930.

The financial sector is the one where the domino theory actually holds.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 12:31 AM on 03/23/2008

No, in 1930 Commercial banks failed and their depositors lost their money causing in large measure the Depression. The Brokerage Houses are different entities. Your local bank is for the most part not involved with the criminal activities on Wall Street. Small depositors at the Brokerage House are insured, if they were smart, by the FDIC. Other insurance against loss of securities is provided by the SIPC. Just as the loss of a retailer at the Mall will not cause widespread panic in shoppers, neither would the loss of Brokerage Houses run by criminals cause a vacuum that would not immediately be filled by a better run competitor.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 09:27 AM on 03/23/2008

Extra "0" should be $1 trillion or so. Not $10.

But still a very very large number.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 10:49 AM on 03/23/2008

Sorry, it's not 1930.

Today the investment "banks" are a key element in the financial system..

Bear Stearns is the counterparty on US$10 trillion of credit default swaps and one of the prime brokers on the Street though which various entities pass their stock orders.

Take a look at the "tape" for CDS on the investment banks and the stock prices thereof.

Lehman Brothers was next in line.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 10:35 AM on 03/23/2008

The point is that Free Enterprise "can't handle the truth". The truth being that left unto its own, the financial system would destroy itself time and time again. Without stringent, Government enforced regulations and oversight, which the players detest, they would all go out of business on a regular basis. The Republican mantra of "Government is the problem" is false. The entirety of Conservative Economic dogma is false. Libertarianism applied to the economic framework has never worked. The best analogy would be to remove all of the traffic control devices and laws. No stop signs, signals, rules or conventions as to which side of the road you drive. Take the stripes off the roads. The carnage would be so great that no one would even venture out of their driveway. That's the Republican, Greenspan approach to economics.

The best way to eliminate this carcinogenic theory is to allow Free Enterprise to play itself out to the end. Let the 10 trillion in CDSs go the way of the Dodo. Allow Lehman to face its own self imposed destiny. Allow each of the infected pustules burst so that the poison can be drawn from the system. The application of Socialistic Band Aids to these cankers is quackery. As has been shown in medicine, when the fever is allowed to rise it kills off the parasites causing the disease. Unfettered Free Enterprise is the disease, the bankruptcies of its players are only the symptoms. If you just treat the symptoms, the disease will return.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 11:31 AM on 03/23/2008

We certainly agree on the point that regulation is required and that the market can't be left to self- regulate.

Two further comments.

First, it's unclear to me what you are proposing. A different system than capitalism? Or that letting the chips fall where they may would result in a lesson so compelling that problems would not happen again? As an aside, I'd argue that lessons are only learned for a short time if at all.

Second, letting the chips fall where they may could result in very profound misery for a lot of very innocent people.

I'd prefer something on the order of legal action against those who caused the crisis. The RICO statutes would appear to offer just the ticket.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 11:53 AM on 03/23/2008

Out thoughts are parallel in many regards. I am proposing the return to a well regulated Capitalism; one not unlike a well run transportation system of roads and highways (pardon the redundant analogy), one where the rules are logical and effective to preserve safety and order but without hindering travel to the point of inefficiency and frustration. Erecting stop signs just because you have them is not effective regulation. And yes, I would allow many of the chips to fall as they were designed to fall by those who are responsible for this. Yes, there would be discomfort but as pointed out certain safety nets for the innocent are in place and could be enhanced by the efforts of Government (Socialism for the small investor, not the perps). I believe the limits for FDIC and SPIC are one million total per institution. Not many poor or middle class people would lose out. If major hedge fund players with their special tax treatments provided by Bush are wiped out, tough shit.

The painful lessons of the Depression lasted for two generations. There is no guarantee that another round of knuckle rapping would last any longer but in 50 years most of us will be dead. As to the RICO approach you are on the right track. The present approach of the bailout is tantamount to following the bank robbers and when their car breaks down offering them a ride. Bankruptcy and prison are what is needed, not hand outs to billionaires.


favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 04:30 PM on 03/23/2008

HuffPo is only allowing me one sentence posts so can't reply in detail re the dangers to the little guy of letting the chips fall where they may.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 07:55 AM on 03/25/2008

We're largely in agreement.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 07:34 AM on 03/25/2008

Legal action won't restore the lost trillions ... because they were 'invented in the first place by these criminals to line their own pockets.

These perps must be maid to pay restitution until they have nothing left.

Secondly, capitalism is not a religion, it is a tool that must be used properly. As with any powerful tool precautions are necessary for its operation. Since it is the public and the government that will suffer the consequences they should advance the rules. Capitalism exists under government, not beside or above it .

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 02:05 PM on 03/23/2008

You are preaching to the choir with respect to capitalism and the need for regulation..


favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 12:09 AM on 03/24/2008

Out thoughts are parallel in many regards. I am proposing the return to a well regulated Capitalism; one not unlike a well run transportation system of roads and highways (pardon the redundant analogy), one where the rules are logical and effective to preserve safety and order but without hindering travel to the point of inefficiency and frustration. Erecting stop signs just because you have them is not effective regulation. And yes, I would allow many of the chips to fall as they were designed to fall by those who are responsible for this. Yes, there would be discomfort but as pointed out certain safety nets for the innocent are in place and could be enhanced by the efforts of Government (Socialism for the small investor, not the perps). I believe the limits for FDIC and SPIC are one million total per institution. Not many poor or middle class people would lose out. If major hedge fund players with their special tax treatments provided by Bush are wiped out, though shit.

The painful lessons of the Depression lasted for two generations. There is no guarantee that another round of knuckle rapping would last any longer but in 50 years most of us will be dead. As to the RICO approach you are on the right track. The present approach of the bailout is tantamount to following the bank robbers and when their car breaks down offering them a ride. Bankruptcy and prison are what is needed, not hand outs to billionaires.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 12:54 PM on 03/23/2008

[Bright checkmark] HuffPo pick! Well. it would be if I were in charge.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 09:22 PM on 03/22/2008

It is 1929, and George W. Bush is Warren G. Harding, Calvin Coolidge and Herbert Hoover on steroids...with alcoholism induced brain damage!

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 05:02 PM on 03/22/2008

I hope that the failing economy turns out to be a bigger issue than the candidate's pastors. Given that the falling dollar, the slowing economy and increases in inflation are all related to money borrowed to fight the war it would be reasonable to choose a different party th run the White House. However, this may turn out to be less important the pastor problem.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 04:50 PM on 03/22/2008

What about the more critical issues that face the common man in our country?

Flag burning

Illegal aliens

Abortions

And imagine your horror when illegal aliens burn flags on the way to the abortion clinic.

Or did I mention that some of them are definitely gay and they want to get married.

And you're worried about the economy?.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 02:35 AM on 03/23/2008