Central to the Bush-Petraeus Iraq strategy is to pacify and confuse American public opinion during the 2008 elections, an approach Gen. Petraeus calls "slowing down the American clock" to gain time for the counterinsurgency to continue. This week's events in Basra suggest that US strategy is collapsing amidst its own contradictions.
This is the most important opportunity for critics to question the "surge" since it began last year.
Here is what is happening.
To quell the Sunni insurgency and create an image of gradual progress, the US has insisted provincial elections be held in Iraq this October, one month before the American elections. The expectation is that disenfranchised groups who boycotted the 2005 elections will gain significant representation in the Iraqi parliament, a prospect that threatens the sectarian coalition of Shi'a and Kurdish parties now controlling the regime. The Shi'a bloc includes Maliki's Dawa and the former Supreme Command of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq [SCIRI]. Their rivals are the impoverished Shi'a followers of Moktada al-Sadr of Sadr City and many towns in the South, whose military forces are known as the Mahdi Army.
Maliki agreed to the provincial elections, it appears, in exchange for Bush's and Petraeus' permission to launch a crushing offensive against the Sadr forces who have come to power on the streets of Basra in the wake of Britain's withdrawal. Maliki and his US sponsors call them "criminal gangs", but it is clear that Maliki's intent is to weaken or destroy the Sadr forces before the election.
The four-day offensive has failed so far, provoking widespread violence from Basra to Mahmudia, Hilla, Diwaniya, Kut and the streets of Baghdad. Hundreds have been killed or wounded. Maliki's forces are being exposed as unable to fight without US airpower bombarding positions as small as those for mortar crews. The prospect of US or British intervention in Basra grows by the hour. Tens of thousands of Shi'a are protesting on the streets of Sadr City.
So much for the surge. The US is now in panic mode, trying to ensure the survival of its unpopular client regime in Baghdad.
This is much more than a power struggle between Shi'a sects. The forces of Moktada al-Sadr consistently oppose the US occupation itself and call for American troop withdrawals. al-Sadr himself has outwitted the US commanders who have tried everything from arresting him to coopting him since 2003. Now Petraeus finds himself dependent on al-Sadr's unilateral cease-fire to keep the lid on Baghdad, while at the same time backing Maliki's war against al-Sadr's militias in Baghdad.
Petraeus is due to testify before Congress April 8-9, and faces the greatest public relations crisis of his tenure in Iraq. It is an opportunity for the presidential candidates to be questioned about the viability of their proposals to leave thousands of American advisers and trainers behind - on the failing side of a sectarian war, as the events in Basra are revealing.
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Hey reader guys--whole bunch of posts missing--whazzup?
Tom, the tribes in that region have been fighting for a long time. The notion of Iraq et al, is just lines left over from the British ignoring the racial/religious realities on the ground. The British and the French in the time of their Empires tried, and failed, just as we are, to impose foreign order on the people in the Middle East.
The reason we are in Iraq, is for the oil! To keep it for us--control production/price to enrich the companies that fill Republican campaign coffers--and keep it from the Chinese whose economy is Bush's greatest threat, plus the debt they hold that allows him to continue this invasion without raising taxes.
Suggesting we fight to protect America is worse than wrong--It is idiotic. The fact that some Americans and military support our people dying for Corporate Interests, sickens me. The money we've spent on this atrocity could've bought off every country in the region, secured oil until the ground runs dry, with enough left for a good start on energy independence. All this without stirring up sectarian hatreds that put us in the cross hairs merely because we are somewhere we shouldn't be!
When people write in saying how much you or I must hate our country, I always try to imagine how they would feel if they woke up one morning to find the Red Chinese or French Army stationed in their city? My guess is, they wouldn't like it much.
Our military strategists fail to realize, over and over, no matter where they fight, a fundamental truth. When fighting someone like al Sadr or bin Laden, or Hamas for that matter, who rally forces behind them under the belief that "God is on their side", it doesn't matter how much money they have, or who is backing them, or who is calling for support to fight them. They will fight, to the bitter end. Death ceases to matter, family ceases to matter, only the cause is of importance. We will continue to be on the side of futility, until we understand that principle.
The Al Saud family gets it- it's why they have gone out of their way to accomodate the Wahabi religious leaders in their own country, without whose support their monarchy will crumble around them like a glass house in an earthquake. It's why Iran will never fall to us, no matter how agressively we sabre rattle, and no matter how much the average Iranian may disagree with his government. It's why we need to rally around secular governments, such as exist in Syria, Lebanon, Turkey, Jordan, Egypt. It is why it is so important to maintain peace in Pakistan, and support a rebuilding of the social infrastructure in Afghanistan, before the Tailiban takes hold. Even if we don't agree politically, the political disagreement pales in comparison to the force of the underdog who believes he is fighting for God.
I agree, to a point--You can easily substitute any strong belief for a revolutionary to fight for. Those "godless" Vietnamese put up a pretty good fight for their country because they believed in something that we here in protected America haven't had to believe in for a long time. Freedom from foreign tyranny! And we did pretty good ourselves, once, back in the day.
So, in order to avoid the whole "Jihadist Conspiracy" neo-con knee jerk, I prefer to leave religion out of the equation. The Mahdi Army might scream about Allah and the great satan when the cameras are on, but you get most any Iraqi aside and they'll tell you that all they really want is water that runs when they turn the tap and electricity for more than four hours a day. Oh, plus that freedom from foreign tyranny thing...that seems to override religion, nationality, you name it.
I totally agree with your take on being friends with the other states in the region. Diplomacy is always the better way to go when you want to do business with folks. And you are right again when you say that the harder we push, the harder they will fight back. If we took our army out and used that money to help them rebuild what we've destroyed that would be a good first step.
Mr. Hayden,
If you hold such disdain for the United States and for those of us who stand at her gates, why don't you just leave? Take another trip to visit some communist outpost and stay. I'm sure they'd be glad to have you. And bring your ex.
If you have nothing constructive to add to your bile, please stay silent. For everyone's sake, at least voluntarily relegate yourself to obscure references in cartoon sitcoms.
HI! At last count, cd, it doesn't look like you won any hearts or minds here!
"Stand at her gates?" Honestly, where do you warons come up with this garbage? You people are living in a fantasy born out of crappy 80s movies like "Red Dawn." Wake up, already.
Waron. That's clever. Hope you don't mind if I steal that one. You're right, I'm a bloodthirsty killer who goes to sleep each night dreaming of my next chance to shoot something. If you had even the remotest inkling of what you're talking about you might curb your knee-jerk reactions. And you missed the reference, I was going for "A few Good Men."
". And you missed the reference, I was going for "A few Good Men."
And let us guess--You thought the Jack Nicholson character was the hero in that film, right?
Since you are clearly Anti-American you should leave, sir. Anyone who supports the occupation supports the bankruptcy of our Republic and ipso facto is Anti-American.
I'm Anti-American. That's rich. Thanks for clearing thet up for me though. I just wish you had done so earlier, I could have done something different for the last 18 years. I am anti-idiocy. And idiocy does not follow party lines. You have no idea what I do or do not support. I'm in a good mood though so I'll tell you. I support my brothers and sisters who get shot at. I support the families of those who have died wearing our country's uniform. I support every man and woman who puts on a uniform and takes an oath to defend, with their life if necessary, your right to declare your ignorance in public.
If you are against freedom of speech maybe you are the one who should find another country that suits your viewpoint.
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I'm all for freedom of speech, that's why I wear the uniform I do. Quite honestly, I'm just fed up with hearing seemingly educated people like Hayden and his ilk blathering on about how much they hate what's going on without offering any constructive suggestions. Meanwhile, his viralic dissent does nothing but encourage an enemy who would make no distinction between killing him and me. They know they must simply be patient and soon enough, those with less intestinal fortitude and other such sympathizers will eventually allow them to have the run of the playground.
I hate to tell you this, since it would probably piss John Bruhns off, put you, sir, are a brainwashed tool. You fight a war Bush tells you to, an enemy he says you should fight. You do not defend the American People, or what WE stand for.
You are doing a job, like working at the bank, you just do it with a gun in your hand. And that gun is being used to protect the business interests of multinational companies that have NO loyalty to America! You swore an oath to defend the Constitution--Not to your political masters.
And next week when they drum up another conflict, Iran, Venezuela, China maybe, you'll believe the bs they feed you, just like you did this one. The corporate machine runs on the willingness of fools like you to die for them, still believing you are serving your country. Those Muslims don't hate me, or my neighbors. They hate you.
You want the war and terrorism to end, I'll give you the answer Hayden can't or won't---Get the hell out of the Middle East! Roll the price of oil back to before Bush invaded Iraq! Buy it on the open market without an army being necessary to threaten any of those countries. You do realized that Jews and Muslims once lived in peace in that region? If they could, we can.
If brains were money, the Bush Administration would be running the greatest deficit in the history of this republic. Oh, wait! They are!
As though Petreaus would admit the truth or tell the truth, hah.
He is a bought and paid for brown noser and has an ego larger than Karl Rove. However, the Dems better darned well finally show some gumption and nail him and Bush's lies.
End the Goddamn Iraq occupation War Crime NOW!
The invasion and occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan is a crime and a tragedy. That said, please consider the state of our People here in America: The war, as horrible as it is, is just a cover for the destruction of the Constitution and our nation. The best, and only way to end that war, is by protecting Our Freedoms here!
Executive Order #11000 allows the government to move people into "work brigades" under government supervision. Kind of like Auschwitz, only in Cleveland or Richmond.
The Military Commissions Act of 2006 allows the government to arrest and hold anyone indefinitely without formal charges or legal representation.
Executive Order # 11921 says the President can declare a state of emergency that is not defined, and can not be reviewed by Congress for 6 months.
PDD51 allows the President dictatorial control without checks/balances from congress.
The Real ID Act is supposed to take effect in May 08 where we allcarry a national ID; One they want to put an RFID chip in so they cantrack all our movements. Anyone without it can't board a plane, train or open a bank account. The next step is chips in People!
We may still have the "right" to free speech, assembly or religion, but You can be arrested with no trial, bail, lawyer, or explanation. if the government can arrest you without formal charges, legal representation indefinitely, it is essentially no different than the Soviet Union, Nazi Germany or a third world dictatorship.
Under these rules, Tom, you'd still be in Jail in Chicago...
Tom, when you weave relevance and clarity we remember the hope that is American.
What a freeking beacon.
If anything happens over there this week, the people's morritorium is due. This is a horific war machine and their quarter lap-media.
The only thing they will listen to $$$. Thats what the hope of America is down to.
Just outstanding, Tom.
Peace and pizza!
There is the obvious retaliation if Bush bombs Iran; besides placing American troops in Iraq in a deadly crossfire... Iran has missiles that can reach Israel. Ironically, the Israeli Clerics who control the government and Aipac, and who are strong advocates for the US attack on Iran will be the first to suffer: The Iranians no doubt have thousands of missiles pointed at Israel as well as the Green Zone in Iraq. Preemptive bombing of Iran is suicidal both for Israel and our vulnerable 150,000 sacrificial men and women in Iraq.
Bush has to be stopped from committing this last of a series of military blunders that have backfired with disastrous results, repercussions that have weakened our economy and decimated our military forces. And this Iran invasion, that 'Retired" General Fallon had warned us about only last month, will certainly give Bush the excuse he has been looking for to declare Marshal Law, institute a national draft and postponing the General Election in November.
You mean the Bush,Patreaus, McCain surge strategy. What a coincidence, McCain is there last week and everything is Peachy, and once he leaves all hell breaks loose. I am so glad Obama didn't go there...know what I mean.
bye bye american imperialism. the economy will crash and the war mongering will end in the destruction of the middle class.
there is a god and karma for americans war mongering around the world and for killing one million vietnamese.
how proud i stand for being a vietnam and iraqi war protester.
where is jane when we need her?
and we call mc war a national hero true definition of imperialism for a country.
Read Naomi Klein's Shock Doctrine. This is not a series of mistakes--it's a plan to obliterate a region in order to make the world safe for free-market economics and the money it puts in the pockets of a small elite at the top of the pyramid.
Well done Tom. You are one of the only people left that is reporting on what really matters. Do you have any ideas what we should do? Just pull the out now? If so, can you please use your influence to make this the central focus of the democratic debate. We need answers, action and committment to getting us the h*ll out of there.
We need your guidence, since I am not seeing Obama or Clinton giving us detailed answers on this, can you remind them step up the discussion on this.
Peace
Terrible rumors from Russia continue to swirl around the Middle East that the Cheney-Bush junta has decided to bomb Iran on April 4th or 6th, targeting not only nuclear-power research facilities but ships, planes, antiaircraft installations, and the Iranian pentagon. Apparently the nuclear-power reactor being built by Russian companies will be spared, but not much else.
Will it happen? Certainly the neocon hate network is working overtime to make it so. Bush fired the anti-neocon Admiral Fallon. One thing we know for sure: it will be the typical Bush administration snafu, with horrific consequences for the region and the world, not to speak of the Iranian people, and reap much trouble for the US empire. Indeed, it could mark the end of the empire if, as Bill Lind worries, the Iranians in retaliation cut off water-food-ammo supply routes to US troops in Iraq, and, with the help of Shiite militians, capture large numbers of them. Need I mention that Ron Paul, our champion of peace, is the leading opponent of war on Iran?
I'm afraid that's exactly what the idiots in this administration are going to do..Has anyone watched the series Jericho? It's pretty scary, as that could be US, and gw could declare martial law. Then there won't be an election, and the neo-cons WIN....................................................................................................
If Bush attacks Iran, declares marshall law, and cancels the elections, its time for a fucking bloody revolution in this country!!!
Tom, It is unfortunate we haven't done our homework. By that I mean the surge is a strategy is is designed lone term results and not immediate results as newspapers and the administration has been touting. So by definition when it is used in a argument for addressing short term results, there can be no resolution. Before his current position, Petraeus only dealt with small time things. Please note the gains in the war are actually in areas where the "Surge " never took place Al Ambar province the military calls Marine Land.
The fact is there, factions took up arms against Al Qaeda with the understanding the US would get out and let the factions fight once Al Qaeda was pushed out. That's it.
The bottom line is, unless the Iraqi government tries to take action against t bring the country together, no amount of work the US tries to do on the security side has any lasting value and there is no point in risking more US lives waiting 5 more years for Iraqi's to get their act together or steal more our our moneys and leave the country for a life of luxury.
I am a former middle east x-Pat. I believe the context this article has been written cannot address the root cause of the problem. There is no strategy that is consistent from month to month.
Exporting democracy ain't as easy as it sounds, is it, sports fans? One of the problems: by imposing our idea of a stable form of government on a nation and culture whose dynamics we still don't understand, we've succeeded only in exacerbating their underlying schisms to the point of a hot civil war.
The chaotic situation Tom describes is yet another circle deeper into the Hell we've created for the Iraqi people.
The question is, how is the next US President going to unravel this mare's nest of broken government, death, and spiraling violence? And more basically, can anything the US is able to do unravel it? Once the dogs of war are unleashed, it's not always possible to get them back in their cages. Might remember that before someone starts cheerleading the next war.
It was never Bush's intention to export democracy to Iraq. This was just the latest "reason" when all the other "reasons were found to be bankrupt or lies.
With the US now supporting the Maliki government's attempts to destroy Moktada al-Sadr, you can forget about the benefits of the "surge." Bush, as usual makes speeches about how we support Malaki in his destruction of Sadr, even before the dust settles, and before Malaki has to be rescued. Until now, Moktada al-Sadr had called for a cease fire. Now that he's fighting for survival, you can count on more attacks on US soldiers. Mission accomplished! With our foreign policy in tatters, and the economy in free-fall, Bush and his Cronies now try and compare themselves to the Lincoln administration.
Gang, no one is coming out of Iraq. Maliki apparently was scared the elections would turn him out of office, so he rolled the dice. Now McCain has said the upsurge in violence could cost him the election. Perhaps this could be like a "Tet Offensive." The difference now is that the media doesn't have enough resources to cover the violence effectively to show the american public just what all this has come to. But at the end of the day, the dems will roll over and the war will go on and grow to include Iran.
This entire administration, courts congress have been morally bankrupt for nearly 8 years.
Peace to you today.
...just the last 8 years? Where were you before that?
Good luck,
The "surge" was just mirrors anyway. The Iraqis are never going to make kissy face and be adults until they become tired of the fighting and killing enough to devide up the land and the money.
As long as we are there, they will not do that. We need to orderly and as safely exit Iraq as we can, and only then will all sides realize that they need to either come to the table and genuinely work it out, or prepare to slaughter one another for a while longer, and finally do the same thing.
The only way Iraq will become stable is for another strongman like Saddam Hussein to emerge who will rule with an iron fist. Those people don't understand democracy, let alone the notion of fairness. They are incapable of restraining their own murderous inclinations as a means to settle disagreements. We need to recognize that we don't have the answer to their problems. Let them keep their oil. I'd rather pay $5.00 a gallon of gas than stay in Iraq.
surge=stay the course. The surge is the *absence* of a strategy.
Posted March 29, 2008 | 01:36 PM (EST)