The last week in March was, with little doubt, one of the most trying for the Clinton campaign. Her quest to gain superdelegates was blunted by Bob Casey and Bill Richardson, two major party players who have clearly recognized the writing on the wall. The core of her experience rationale was called into question when it was revealed that, on multiple occasions, Hillary had dramatically exaggerated her experience landing in war-torn Bosnia. It was also revealed that she had almost nothing to do with the SCHIP program she claimed to have created, with a number of those involved describing her accounts as straining credulity. She still hasn't released her tax returns, without explanation or justification and, she was quoted as taking credit for lobbying for the Family Medical Leave Act's passage, though it had passed the House and Senate before her husband took office.
Her insistence on making her candidacy about experience has shed light on parts of her character that might have been better left in the dark.
The tone and tenor of her campaign has also taken a surprising turn, becoming more and more a vehicle for open hypocrisy. Out of one side of her mouth, Hillary argues that all remaining contests should be completed before a decision is made and that Florida and Michigan ought to be seated for fear of their disenfranchisement. Out of the other side, she argues that the delegates that were allocated based on state primaries and caucuses should actually ignore their obligation to support the candidate to which they were pledged. She is uncomfortable disenfranchising Florida and Michigan, but perfectly content tossing out the other forty eight.
It would be silly were it not so serious.
The confluence of these events may have contributed to Hillary's slide in the national polls, a sign that perhaps, she has crossed a line that even her ardent supporters dare not follow. Last week's NBC/WSJ poll found her favorability rating had collapsed to 37%, and a recent Gallup tracking poll has her down 10 points against Obama.
It is likely, though, that this slip in polls is a preview of more to be expected. Though the facts of the race have remained relatively unchanged since March 4th, the coverage has changed dramatically. For weeks (if not months), the blogosphere has been saturated with compelling arguments explaining why Hillary cannot possibly reach the nomination. With the exception of rare stragglers like Jonathan Alter of Newsweek, very few in the mainstream media took a similar tone.
But last week that all seemed to change. Rather than inaccurately portraying the race as a virtual tie, a horserace likely to produce a photo-finish in Denver, the media has begun to confront the harder truth that the Clinton campaign is over. Like Bruce Willis in The Sixth Sense, the Clinton campaign doesn't yet know that it's already dead.
Her remaining rationale requires that superdelegates support her en masse, even if that means subverting the will of the voters. Thus far, there has been no indication, not even a remote one, that the superdelegates are inclined to do so. If not the superdelegates, Hillary needs pledged delegates to abandon their obligation. But pledged delegates are hand-selected by the campaigns they are pledged to, a group of true loyalists whose betrayal is truly implausible. She cannot catch up in the popular vote. She cannot catch up in the pledged delegate count. And she cannot catch up in states won.
At this point, her only hope would be for something so disastrous to happen to the Obama candidacy that superdelegates, the media, and the American people have an almost universal change of heart. Of course, any such event would likely be so dramatic as to end the Obama candidacy, forcing his withdrawal long before forcing the hands of party insiders.
The media has finally come around to this reality, and has begun to cover the campaign with accuracy for the first time since voting began. There will likely be nothing more punishing to the Clinton campaign. Until now, Clinton has been able to keep her supporters from defecting by convincing them that the race is exceptionally close and victory well within reach. But as Clinton supporters begin to realize that she cannot actually win, the tactics that she has shown comfort in deploying will become unpalatable.
After all, if she cannot win, why should Clinton supporters be comfortable with her aggressive attacks against Obama? If she cannot win, why has she been going out of her way to praise John McCain as being strong and ready and able? If she cannot win, why is she willing to take the party, and the country, through a painfully divisive convention fight, the outcome of which could be a weak and damaged nominee? If she cannot win, why is she still soliciting donors like they were an ATM on the bridge to nowhere? If she cannot win, why should they still support her?
These are difficult questions for Clinton supporters to confront and none of the answers provide good news for her campaign. The media, at this point, has all but assumed that she will win Pennsylvania and move the goalposts yet again. But in the 23 days between now and then, if this new media dialogue solidifies, Clinton might see a steep and rapid decline in her support, potentially enough to end the race in April.
Until now, the Clinton campaign has done a masterful job of depicting the campaign as a tight battle between champion and challenger, one expected to go 15 rounds without a knockout. But it seems far more like a best of seven series, one in which, after losing four games, she is inexplicably demanding to play the final three.
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I can't see how anyone would vote for either Obama or Clinton...they are socialists, and neither one is qualified to be president, hands down.
John McCain is the only choice that makes any sense.
I have to wonder if Hillary is a neoconservative "manchurian candidate".
She supported the war in Iraq. And this despite personal knowledge that the White House was building its "case" for WMD on the back of false evidence such as FORGED documents that couldn't have passed even the most cursory inspection by US intelligence services; that's the real heart of the Valerie Plame outing after former ambassador Joseph Wilson spoke out about this (the forgery was revealed well in advance of the vote to authorize the invasion of Iraq).
She also seems likely to support an invasion of Iran. She has remained silent on the issue of use of torture by the US government, something for which Ann Coulter applauds her, and despises McCain for denouncing. Whilst supporting neoconservative foreign policy aimed at creating a "New American Empire", she supports a clearly unconstitutional plan to criminalize the sale of "violent" video games to minors (but not the sale/rental of "violent" films or music to them), and has supported other unreasonable restrictions on our rights of freedom of speech and expression, such as an amendment criminalizing the burning of the US flag.
She was the President of her college's Young Republican chapter during the height of protest against the United States during the 1960's. Perhaps in her heart of hearts, she hasn't much changed.
The phantom Bosnian snipers of Hillary's own creation have put the final bullet into the Clinton campaign. She is now unelectable.
A fool and his money....
Do we really want Bill Clinton renting out the Whitehouse bedrooms AGAIN?
Hillary really belives there's a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow!
Yippie-kay-yay myfriends!
She used these same tactics against Gennifer Flowers, Kathleen Wiley, Monica Lewsinky.
deny, deny deny
It's just weird to have a former president campaign to have his wife elected president. Creepy. Then they throw the poor former first daughter out there to campaign as well and then say you "better not" ask her certain questions. Creepier.
I didn't support either Obama or Clinton in the primary, but this dragging contest is only helping McCain. I hope Obama wins Pennsylvania, so that at the very least, Clinton's will be forced to suspend her campaign, at least unofficially. She'll always be there as the backup in case Obama implodes, which he won't.
There are more important things than the personal political ambitions of either candidate. That 20% of each other's supporters are saying they'll vote for McCain is disgraceful. This is not about electing a "person" this year. It is about literally rescuing American from the forces of neoconservatism and the whole conservative movement. Either of these candidates would mark a departure from conservatism. Not enough for me personally, for I doubt either one has the stomach to take on the corporations. However, it will be more than enough to justify not voting for McCain. Remember, we are not electing a "personality" as President. We are electing someone who will appoint judges and Cabinet secretary's who will be broadly similar.
In any event, although I didn't support Obama, I'm rooting for him to win Pennsylvania to end this thing by voting for him so we can once again turn our fire where it belongs -- against the conservative movement who has left a trail of destruction at home and abroad thanks to George W. Bush's failed conservative policies and his delusional, incompetent Presidency.
This is a very good post ProudLiberalDan, and I completely agree with your assessment.
I would only add my own personal wish that the remaining undeclared super delegates agree to a date of mass declaration at some point very soon so as to get this primary over with, and turn attention and funds where needed: against the Republicans. After all, it is not as if there is any remaining debate between Clinton and Obama over differing policy issues. At this point the super delegates must surely know who they would prefer as a candidate in the general election. So why prolong this primary when it only serves the purposes of the conservatives?
Perhaps both candidates could be asked if they would support such a solution, and agree to wholeheartedly support the other candidate should they lose the super delegate vote.
Perhaps I am overly optimistic.
Great post Dylan. Thanks.
I almost feel like Bill Clinton is scamming the supporters with "We going to win this" comments. Pretty much shows the Clintons integrity. I used to LOVE the Clintons until reality set in.....
How does Obama win and why is he still in Hillary's way. Why doesn't he realize that he will not have the delegate count to win and do the honorable thing and drop out and run for governor of Illinois? Obama should stop sucking the life blood out of the Democratic party. Now how many of you Obamabots agree?
Another delusional Clintonista!
Every Political site shows that Obama is 100+ ahead in the delegate count right now. There are 333 super delegates still uncommitted. There are many committed super delegates to Hillary that are slowing leaving and going over to Obama.
Without figuring in any further switches of super delegates, Obama only needs 32% of those 333 super delegates to clinch the nomination while Hillary needs 72% of those 333 super delegates.
Hillary has PA, IND and WV sewn up, but there is no guarantee that she can take the majority of delegates in these states. It is mathematically impossible for Hillary to make up enough super delegates to clinch the nomination. All she can hope for is to do the shuffle and convince the DNC that she is the better person to beat McCain.
With every day that passes, her percentages against McCain go down while Obama's goes up.
For you to continue with your delusional belief that Hillary is destined to be President is pure fairy tale.
I am not here to try to "convert" you. I am only here to straighten out your misaligned belief.
We all agree. You're the disagreeable one calling people names.
If Hillary can still get donors to give money, why should she shut it down? If Obama is obviously gonna win... (after all, the media and his supporters have pegged him as the second coming) why are you all so bothered by her running? If it's a waste of time, and money, so be it. You'll still get your guy, right?
Why? Because all Hillary is looking for is for people to pay off her debts and recoup her $5mil loan. They she is outta here.
Sooo, are you prepared to continue to donate to her so she can just pay off her debts (making sure her $5mil loan + interest gets paid off first)? Cause it will not go to help her in her run for the office.
I am bothered because she continues to spread right wing Nafta-gate lies that smear Obama. I am bothered because the media refuses to cover the fact that loyal Republicans gave her the win in Texas and half her margin in Ohio. I am bothered because her endorsements of McCain over Obama will be used by the Republicans in November to the detriment of the Democratic party.
As quoted from another comment, I think this sums it up pretty well.
If there weren't a cost to HRC staying in the race, I'd say, sure, why not? But there are costs:
1) Every week, the Dems negatives go up while McCain's positives go up.
2) The tens of millions of dollars being spent on the primary could go to the general election. I know I don't have unlimited funds, and I'll bet there are lots of people who will feel tapped out by the time the primaries wrap up.
3) The intra-party divide increases each week; the tension is real and the bad blood won't entirely go away. The more time to heal, the better.
There are numerous precedents for wrapping up the nomination before all the states have voted. There's no precedent for the superdelegates to overturn the votes of the voters.
barry,
I have to agree....a bald faced lie that could be proved via film is more damaging than one hell, fire, and brimstone minister with a truthful opinion!!
Anna....reality check.
Hillary is the left wing of the Republican party.
As a conservative, Christian Repub.....who will not vote Repub....Obama would have to my choice....
I haven't seen that she is the registered Dems choice....and certainly not all the disgruntled Repubs like me would dare vote for her....we want change......not someone who dodges imaginary bullets.
Why is she soliciting more donations....she owes millions to advertisers....
She needs to shut down and quit running the tab up.
Actually, she needs to continue forward so she can raise enough money to pay off her debts. If she were to leave the race now, the income would stop and there would be no way to pay off the debts.
I don't know what would happen if she stopped and the money to pay the bills dried up. She probably wouldn't get that $5 million back.
Sixth Sense? I thought this was going to be Die Hard, or 12 Monkeys.
12 Monkeys: time travel the ultimate campaign tool!
Why are the Obama folks so afraid to let all of the states vote before bringing this to an end. It is because his welcome has worn thin....Bye bye Obama
nobody is afraid of anything....when she quits the campaign early, everyone still gets to vote...that's the way it has been in the past.
Shucks . . . let's get Richardson, Edwards. Dodd and all the rest of them back in the race. Voters deserve the right to vote for them too . . . HRC's illogical logic.
Book, I cannot understand how Democrats still support HRC. She is at the forefront of the DLC. DLC Democrats are not Democrats at all. They are Republicans who put corporate interest before people. She is a member of a right wing prayer group called the "Family" who believe that the elite should run the world and that we the people should just shut up and eat our grewl ,sp?, and be happy that we have a shack to live in. She is now friendly with Rupert Murdoch and Mellon Scaiffe. What is it about her that would invoke confidence from a Democrat? I simply cannot follow the logic.
There's another election to be won. Every day the Democratic Party has to spend indulging the Clinton narcissitic campaign to nowhere is every day John McCain gets a free pass.
Yeah, right. Yawn....
As always, awesome post. However, I do have to say that the one thing that I like about Hillary staying in the race and making these appeals to the Super Delegates is that by doing so she is dragging into the light of day what the Democratic party has managed to keep in the shadows up to this point -- and that is the authority that party elites have assigned to themselves to overthrow the demonstrated will of the voters. Likewise while Hillary's calls to seat the Michigan and Florida delegations are clearly self-interested and hypocritical given her earlier approval for the DNC's disenfranchisment of those voters, the role of the largely rural and overwhelmingly white voters of New Hampshire and Iowa in picking the nominee of a party that is largely urban and ethnically diverse is no longer uncontested. If her continued presence in the contest stokes the fire for changing these undemocratic rules in 2012, then she will unwittingly have served a larger purpose than her singular goal of securing the nomination through any means and at any cost.
To all the people who would like to you the analogy of a boxing match as it pertains to the Democratic Nomination. There does come a time in a fight that for the fighters own good people who has the vested interest of the fighter (corner team: trainer, cut-man or manager) all the way to people who do not (referee, ring-doctor) will step in and do what they feel is best for the fighter and stop the fight if one fighter is taking unnecessary punishment that will harm the fighter in future bouts or in the quality of life outside the ring. Joe Frazier's corner comes to mind when before the 15th round of the 'Thrilla in Manilla" they said to Joe the fight was over not because he COULDN'T WIN but because they CARED MORE ABOUT JOE THAN WINNING!! Hillary's campaign team and supporters should heed that if they care more about her than winning.
She won't quit. She's put 16 years into this relationship always expecting that we would do the right thing and formalize the relationship ( I mean elect her president). But no...at the very end we show up and say "Bye Babe......we are leaving you for that young thing down the street." This is a breakup pure and simple. She's not going to go away quietly and we are going to get "Hell hath no fury" and 3am phone calls until we can't take it anymore.
Also, unlike any other candidate, she has a large stable of people who have been with her for years and have nothing else in their lives except her run for the presidency. They are not going to let her quit. Like Mohammad Ali's posse that kept him going back into the ring until his brain melted, Clinton Inc. has chained her to this treadmill. That and her own hurt feelings will keep her going until the bitter end.
Well said.
Also, if she doesn't run, her vote FOR the Iraq War will have been in vain.
You might be on to something. It's clear that she is just hanging in there now in case anything disqualifying emerges about Obama. In the meanwhile, to keep herself busy, she and her folks are doing all that they can to paint Obama as unelectable (but as the poll numbers show, that is not working) in the hopes that the Super Delegates will get in line for her and Bill and hand her the nomination. Imagine really believing that you are going to be the nominee and the likely next president (because that's what the pollsters and party elites were telling her all the way through January) and then waking up one morning to realize that it's all been yanked out of your reach. I'm no Hillary fan, but I do feel some sympathy for her (and would feel a whole lot more if she wasn't so busy trying to destroy the Democratic party's likely standard bearer).
Read Christopher Hitchens on the Clintons' true Bosnian shame!!
http://www.slate.com/id/2187780
re SCHIP - factcheck.org gives Hillary credit. Sen Kennedy gave her credit at the time as well noting it would not have passed without her support. His willingness to sit silent about it now says more about HIS character than hers.
re N. Ireland - Sen George Mitchell who led the talks gives her credit. Gerry Adams, leader of Sinn Fein, gives her credit. Nobel Peace Prize winner John Hume gives her credit.
FMLA - Debra Ness, President of the National Partnership for Women and Families: "Hillary was instrumental in getting the Family and Medical Leave Act signed into law.
Judy Lichtman, former president of the National Partnership for Women and Families and chair of coalition that worked for 9 long years for FMLA passage gives her credit
In 1988, Hillary headed the host committee for Pat Schroeder"s Great American Family Tour, which advocated for FMLA
The fact that you are willing to ignore alternate opinions says something about you as well.
I think these folks you mention like Sen. Kennedy and John Hume are honest people who are being charitable. On one hand you never trivialize the contributions one makes no matter how small they might seem. However, on the other hand, one should never stretch their contributions and make them out to be something greater than they were because it insults the greater, more substantive efforts that others put in to make these achievements a reality.
Posted March 31, 2008 | 08:48 AM (EST)