A picture is starting to emerge of how the Clinton campaign might move at the Democratic convention in its uphill battle for the nomination, and it is not a pretty one. In fact, it is so bare-knuckled and low-ball that it is not implausible to imagine it rupturing the Party.
To see the picture, you have to put together two reports, one by a Washington insider and another by a grassroots activist in Texas.
First, the view from DC. If David Paul Kuhn of The Politico is correct, there are not one but two terrains in which a convention battle would play out. We all know that neither candidate will win outright, and that the winning margin will have to be provided by superdelegates, who are therefore being lobbied vigorously.
But there is a second terrain that is much less known, which is the convention Credentials Committee. Clinton may decide to take the battle over the Michigan and Florida primaries directly to the Credentials Committee. You thought the tussle over those two states was over? Well guess again. "I have no intention of stopping until we finish what we started and until we see what happens in the next 10 contests and until we resolve Florida and Michigan," she told the Washington Post. "And if we don't resolve it, we'll resolve it at the convention -- that's what credentials committees are for."
Kuhn anticipates Clinton would move to seat the delegations from those states as they are, with no re-vote or any sort of adjustment to the totals that were tallied when Obama was either not on the ballot (Michigan) or not campaigning at the Party's behest (Florida). Remember that she fought tooth and nail to have those states vote again, knowing that with Obama actively campaigning this time, the results would likely be closer than they were when he was not, but still hoping she would win. Her campaign was so anxious to achieve this outcome that her supporters were willing to raise millions of dollars to pay for the elections. So if she can seat the original delegations with an even bigger margin in her favor without having to do the elections over or raise any money, it would be quite a coup.
Her first option would be to get the Credentials Committee to issue a "majority report" to the convention floor, which would result in a floor vote of the whole convention on whether to seat Michigan and Florida. The precise rules of the Credentials Committee are apparently Byzantine even to Party hacks, but it seems highly unlikely she could pull this off. However, she already has enough votes on the Credentials Committee to push through a "minority report." In the case of the Committee issuing both majority and minority reports, there would have be two votes on the convention floor, one to seat Michigan and Florida, and the other not to. In other words, there would be a floor fight over who gets seated at the convention.
OK. That's part one. You can read Kuhn's analysis here.
So what would a floor fight over credentials featuring the campaign of Hillary Clinton look like? Do you really want to know? Credential fights are notoriously nasty, because they immediately become a personal affront to everyone involved, who feel that their very right to be in their party is being challenged, something akin to a constitutional crisis for a party. There was a preview this past weekend at the Democratic county conventions in Texas. Here is a report from an Obama delegate named Melody Townsel:
My credentials were challenged. Along with the credentials of a large swath of the elected delegates.After six or so extremely hot, crowded, confusing hours, many of us were unable to determine why, exactly, our credentials had been challenged. The Clinton camp had announced that they were targeting the 23rd district for credentials challenges and, by god, that's what they did.
By the end, the Clinton folks were willing -- hell, eager -- to throw out not just random individuals but the entire delegation of 2 precincts. (So much for voter enfranchisement, eh, Hills?)
The protest process was tailor-made for alienating committed voters, wearing them out to the point where they would drop out. By the end of the night, the convention floor was abuzz with tired, pissed-off voters who now hate Hillary with the fire of a thousand suns.
I'm one of them. Thanks for sucking those 10 or so hours away from me, Hills. Love ya. Mean it.
In the end, the Hillary camp did successfully win challenges on 22 delegates. Out of a total of 2,650. When the announcement came, we calculated that the 10-hour delay of the start of our convention averaged roughly a successful challenge only every 30 minutes.
To get what s going on here, it helps to know that Obama won the district in question by more than 80%!
In case you think Melody might be exaggerating, see this letter posted on AmeriBlog:
My mom was a delegate in Dallas this past weekend. She arrived at 7AM and didn't get to leave until 8PM. She said that it appeared the Clinton delegates were trying to drag things out so long that people would have to leave. She thought they challenged about 3,000 delegates and each of them had to go through the credentialing committee.One of the Clinton delegates from her group challenged the validity of entire precincts. One of the precincts she challenged was almost entirely African American. Towards the end, after this group was credentialed they came by and shook their fists at the Clinton delegate and chanted "we're still here" in her face. My mom said it was a little tense.
She also said that it was sad to see all of the elderly there having to sit in stadium seats for 13 hours. She didn't know of anyone leaving without an alternate to replace them though. A very pregnant woman in her group had to lie on the concrete floor at times.
Or we can skip the blogs and go to the Dallas Morning News, which reports that
just registering delegates took hours at some conventions. At large conventions in Houston, Dallas and Austin, which lasted into the night, arguments erupted and confusion set in as complaints were lodged about the legitimacy of some delegates.Hundreds of increasingly irritable and bored delegates at the Senate District 23 convention in Dallas stood in lines snaking around four hallways as they waited to receive a delegate credential. Police kept people from jumping out of turn. Several called the process "chaos."
I happen to know that something very similar happened in Nevada at the state convention there. This was not reported in the national media, which makes me wonder where else it is happening, places I don't have friends reporting to me when the national media is not.
Here is a sobering thought worth careful consideration: if the above is what happened when the Clinton campaign went to war over credentials in county conventions in Texas, imagine what it will look like at the national convention. In Texas. In front of world television. With the nomination on the line.
As an aid in visualizing this scenario, think back to the last time there was a credentials battle at a Democratic Convention. That was 1964, when there was a battle over which of two delegations from Mississippi to seat, a segregationist slate or the competing civil rights slate. Many of you probably remember this controversy because at some point you saw the video history of the civil rights movement, Eyes on the Prize.
Now ask yourself what it would look like if, after the whole sordid history of Jim Crow, segregation, and voting rights, a black man who had won the popular vote and had the most delegates was denied the nomination because of a maneuver in a "smoke-filled room" over which delegates got seated.
A while ago, I posted a blog in which I noted the parallels between the current situation and the historic split between abolitionists and key white woman suffrage activists after the Civil War. Events are showing this comparison to be worthy of consideration. The damage this time around could be even more costly.
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The white people in America are still trying to keep the black people from voting. Shame on the Clintons! They owed the African-Americans voters, who helped put Bill in the White House twice, a lot more respect than this.
I'm here screaming to these four walls at the top of my lungs, - why don't people understand what HRC and her supporters are doing to us??? Don't they "get it"? How can, we the American people, allow someone so untrustworthy to lead us "nowhere" especially after these past 7 years of Bush and all the hard issues that lie ahead? Afterall, LYING really is LYING - that means there is no credibility to anything else coming out of THAT mouth. Please someone, please tell me this really is not happening! I beg of you, put me out of my misery! There really is no explanation for the irrational behavior of her supporters. Apparently there really are people out there with blinders on their eyes and headphones that repel sound on their ears and they are absolutely bamboozled by a vagina!
The fact is, Hillary CAN'T win without a Civil War in the party, because she will not have the lead in delegates and therefore would have to engage in some sort of heavy-handed, highly-politicized manuevering in order to strong arm a "coalition of the willing." It would be a phyrric victory and without question lead to defeat in November.
It's the Iraq War vote all over again. Whatever the cost to her principles, the party and the country, she will pursue her political ambition. Period.
Principals? Whet evidence do you have that Sen. Clinton has principals? What evidence does anyone out there have? Please, enlighten us. Sen. Clinton has polls, and they determine her every action, from going on the 700 Club, to voting for the war in Iraq, to sitting down with the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review editorial board.
Can someone explain what this "credentialling" means and entails?
More....I ask because I'm going to be a county delegate this weekend.
It means you'll be harassed challenged by HRC partisans, especially if you're black.
What I find terrifying is that the HRC campaign obviously is not concerned about the Democratic Party, or for that matter, the country.
The hubris of this campaign is matched only by the hubris her husband showed when he "had sexual relations with that women" because, by his own admission, he could. (Which he himself said was the worst reason anyone could have for doing anything.)
How arrogant to assume that you are the only person qualified to be President. How arrogant to assume that anyone who disagrees with this assumption is stupid and wrong. I get the impression HRC thinks she is saving the party from ourselves. She obviously believes the voters are too stupid to realize that she should be President, and smarter heads should prevail. Good luck with that.
What in the world is going on now? I guess those supporting Hillary for whatever reason they think she is of a moral structure to be president are happy she is doing this filth but the supers need to stand up and stop this. There is no doubt in my mind that Hillary has the whole democrat party on the bubble and is ready to explode it! Now I am begining to see Old Man Mac as President aren't you?
The dirtiest crew in politics the Clintons and their despicable tactics. Maybe the cable news outlets should spend some time on this story. Time for an end to these Rovian tactics,
Wow! I am glad that you wrote this blog! I knew the Clinton's could get nasty but this is beyond all reason. If there is a chance that this could happen then they MUST be exploited before the convention. If it is the truth then we American's deserve to know! Actually, I fear that this entire scenaria could very well happen if something isn't done about it fast.
I think that the continued prmaries will settle this whole mess and they (the clintons) will have to go away... How nasty can one ambitious female get???
Astonishing. Not one headline on the HuffingtonPost today trying to force Hillary Clinton out of the race and disenfranchise millions of American voters in the Democratic primary. Well, what the heck - it looked like a good strategy to wrap up the nomination early for Obama, but then Americans rebel when confronted with an all out effort to deprive them of the right to vote and steal the nomination for a blatantly unqualified candidate like Obama. We all know by now that the Obama team will stoop to anything to win, but this time they got caught in their own slime.
"a blatantly unqualified candidate like Obama"
Obama is at least as qualified as Hillary Clinton, who is a candidate entirely because of her husband. Obama, on the other hand, is there on his own merit.
As far as stooping to anything to win is concerned, I think you're getting your teams mixed up.
You are dreaming if you think Barack Obama is as qualified for the presidency as Hillary Clinton. His skimpy resume and reputation as a slacker just doesn't cut it. Hillary has a reputation for a strong work ethic as a two-term US Senator and throughout her career. She's knowledgeable, talented, experienced, and has worked across the aisle many times on important legislation.
Obama's career as a part-time Ill. state senator and as a one-term US Senator is paltry in comparison, alhtough he had a knack for voting "present" on controversial legislation. BTW he's been running for the presidency ever since he was elected to the US Senate, so he hasn't had time to do anything else.
PROJECTING AGAIN!
22 delegates is actually quite a few. The reports from the other side of this story is that Obama's folks cheated a LOT and had to be challenged.
ann, please provide a link to the reports from the other side so that you can sway me to support hillary....oh wait, you're probably just making this up...
so Ann 22 delegates out of 2650 total challenges or a paltry 0.83% is quite a few. So using your logic and own words, if 0.83% is quite a few then a lead of 130 delegates out of a total 3144 delegates allocated so far or 4.13% would be considered what? A rout?, A blowout?, or reason to drop out?
We aren't talking about delegates in the delegate count. We are talking about delegates from whom THE delegates who will go to DC will be selected.
The 22 belonged to a district he STILL won by 80%. 13 nasty hours for NOTHING of substance.
You have to ask yourself- is this really the type of leadership you want and we need? Nothing will get done - division does not bring any progress. Haven't we learned that from the current administration? Hillary is a woman with political experience- but that credential does not mean she is fit to lead us out of the mess Bush led us into. According to CBS, the national debt is growing at nearly $1 million a minute (and it's $31,027.00 per American). Bush has raised 3/4 of a Billion dollars for the REPUBLICANS - not the Americans! Hillary can't raise enough money to pay her bills during her campaign - and she started out with more money than anyone. I'm sorry, but I do not beleive that Hillary and her partisan views and dirty tactics are the answer to our nation's problems.
If Clinton steals the nomination--and that's the only way she can get it--the result won't be pretty because our next president will be an old white-haired WARMONGER with a huge lump on his jaw. Hillary's bllnd ambition may be the cornerstone of a Republican victory in November!
The superdelegates need to step up and put a end to this nonsense,Clinton cannot win period,Any candidate with 49% negatives couldn't get elected to dog catcher.Face it she has run a piss poor campaign she cannot even manage a budget of over 100 mil. without stiffing small businesses and going into debt how is she going to manage the economy.
And yet today's news is that Clinton runs much better than Obama in swing states. You guys are nuts to think that his lead is that substantial.
It just isn't the case.
Only in Imaginationland, aka the Clintonian alternative reality, are Ohio, FL, and PA the only swing states. With Obama on the ticket, VA, CO, IA are all in play, and in Obama's favor, and his competitivenesses in others will force McCain to campaign in states he could ignore were Clinton on the ticket.. Oh, and Obama still out polls McCain in each "swing state" Clinton polls "better" in except Florida.... try again when you've returned to reality.
I fear AnninCA may be permanently divorced from reality.
Hopefully, this will be the last Clinton campaign. She will have damaged herself to the point of not being able to run for dogcatcher. He's damaged himself so that if he ever wanted a 'lesser office', he couldn't do it. Let's pray the politics bug hasn't bitten Chelsea... PLEASE!
Both camps can dig up folks to tell stories and both sides can quote bloggers.
You post extremely pro Hillary comments on here all the time and this is the best you can come up with?
These stories are not being dug up mind you. These people are going out there and telling their story because they saw how absurd it was.
Yeah but one side is running an awful, dirty campaign....
this story needs to be circulated so that the msm makes it a point to investigate and spread the word. this kind of b.s. isn't going to be tolerated by americans. hellary is already overwhelmingly viewed negatively and this will further alienate voters. what a bunch of thugs.
Tejanos...he he hehe hahaha..good one!...the MSM investigating...did you write that yesterday on April Fool's Day? I WISH they would..but come one..it's not sexy..it's just NEWS...
I have tried so hard not to hate Hilary...it doesnt' hurt her..and gives me heartburn..but man o man..I want NO MORE CLINTONS!..I am sick of them..and while I voted for Bill C twice..today..he is an embarrassment...
the clintonian machine will stop at NOTHING (just like cheney)...to win...so they are cut from the same cloth...just different colors...
This...this is a horrid picture. Please, let their be an avalanche of superdelegate endorsements for Obama - soon. Anyone who wants to be leader as much as Hillary has expressed is not a safe or reliable leader. Voters: disqualify her.
So what does this mean exactly... that the Clintons can BULLY their way into the white house????
Is there anything WE can do about it???
I am so concerned abou this.
Any article mentioning Hillary's religion has been removed even from Huffpost. MSNBC did an piece on it and it was pulled from sight everywhere...
She belongs to a right wing, christian, evangalist religious order called 'The Family'. It is very politically powerful and seeks to amass power. I feel this is what is driving her to fight to the death... or else some astrological chart told her she was supposed to get to be president this year....
It's ugly. I am praying for the people of the remaining states to start seeing what a bad choice HIllary would be for our country... I am hoping that Senator Obama will actually win Pennsylvania... I know it's a long shot but maybe they can pull it off... If Senator Obama won Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Indiana maybe the momentum would push her out of the race... I could not swallow a Clinton Presidency much better than McCain or Bush. I most definitely would not vote.. if I only had McCain or Clinton to choose from. I would feel heartbroken that all of our hopes for great change i Washington were killed by a BULLY who conned, lied, and cheated her way to the white house... that would be awful for american.
Change I believe In!
Obama/Edwards '08
Now she's gone from being dirt to slime in my book. To hell with the Clinton's each and everyone of them.
For years, I have not been able to listen to George Bush when he is on television -- either I hit the mute button -- fast-forward -- or, change the channel.
During this campaign, the two Clintons have gradually revealed what seems to be a lack of integrity and deficit in character. I can't remember when I first really became aware of this -- at least by the time they purposely twisted Obama's words about President Reagan.
Now I find myself giveing them the Bush treatment too -- and ,I am even beginning to wonder about their public remorse about such things as allowing the Rwandan Genocide to take place before our horrified eyes.
Jai Hanuman!
Posted April 1, 2008 | 12:49 PM (EST)