Indiana Polls: Democratic Primary

POLLS CLOSE TONIGHT AT 7:00 ET

MAY 6: Zogby is still showing Obama with a lead in the Indiana primary, despite the fact that all other polls show Hillary with the lead:

Barack Obama: 45%

Hillary Clinton: 43%

MAY 5: SurveyUSA has Clinton with a sizeable lead the day before the Indiana primary:

Hillary Clinton: 54%

Barack Obama: 42%
Undecided: 1%

MAY 5: ARG is giving the lead to Clinton in their final Indiana poll:

Hillary Clinton: 53%

Barack Obama: 45%

MAY 5: A Suffolk University poll of the Indiana primary has Clinton with the lead:

Hillary Clinton: 49%

Barack Obama: 43%
Undecided: 6%

MAY 5: Zogby has Obama with a slight lead in its latest Indiana poll, but a huge number of undecideds mean the race is anyone's game. Zogby also notes that to the extent that some undecideds have a preferred candidate, Clinton has the edge:

Barack Obama: 44%

Hillary Clinton: 42%
Undecideds: 15%

MAY 4: The latest Zogby daily tracking poll shows a tight race in the Indiana primary:

Barack Obama: 43%

Hillary Clinton: 41%
Undecided: 8%

MAY 2: Insider Advantage has an Indiana poll that shows Clinton with a healthy single-digit lead:

Hillary Clinton: 47%

Barack Obama: 40%

MAY 2: American Research Group's new Indiana poll shows an identical result to their poll conducted at the beginning of April:

Hillary Clinton: 53%

Barack Obama: 44%
Undecided: 3%

MAY 2: Zogby's tracking poll is showing a close race in the Indiana primary:

Hillary Clinton: 42%

Barack Obama: 42%

MAY 1: Hillary maintains a small lead with a big number of undecideds, according to Rasmussen's latest Indiana poll:

Hillary Clinton: 46%

Barack Obama: 41%
Undecided: 13%

APRIL 29: An Indiana poll (pdf) from Public Policy Polling has Hillary with a noticeable lead:

Hillary Clinton: 50%

Barack Obama: 42%

APRIL 29: Another Indiana poll conducted by Guage Market Research shows a tight primary race:

Barack Obama: 47%

Hillary Clinton: 45%

APRIL 28: A Survey USA poll of Indiana finds the results are identical to a poll released 4 weeks ago, on 04/01/08. "Clinton led then 52% to 43%, leads now 52% to 43%. Other polls show the contest closer; some polls show Obama ahead. SurveyUSA tracking graphs show movement toward Clinton in the middle of April but offsetting movement to Obama at the end of April."

Hillary Clinton: 52%

Barack Obama: 43%
Other/Undecided: 5%

APRIL 25: An Indiana poll by American Research Group finds a tightening of the race since their last survey:

Hillary Clinton: 50%

Barack Obama: 45%
Undecided: 5%

APRIL 25: Another Indiana poll (from Selzer &Co.) released today shows another statistical tie:

Barack Obama: 41%

Hillary Clinton: 38%

APRIL 25: A Research 2000 poll of the Indiana primary shows exactly why many people are calling Indiana the next big battleground state:

Barack Obama 48%

Hillary Clinton: 47%

APRIL 15: A Bloomberg/LA Times poll to be released this afternoon shows similar results in Pennsylvania and North Carolina as last week. However, according to Ben Smith -- whose had a peek at the numbers -- Obama has taken a surprising lead of 5 in the state. The poll will be released soon.

UPDATE: Here's the poll:

Barack Obama: 40%

Hillary Clinton: 35%

An interesting note from the internals about the Rev. Wright controversy -- it may be that the scandal helped Obama (at least in Pennsylvania):

However, voters were asked about another controversy that has dogged the candidate in recent weeks: racially incendiary comments made by the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr., the now-retired pastor of Obama's church in Chicago. The furor prodded Obama to deliver a major speech on racial relations in America last month.

In Pennsylvania, the flap seems to have marginally helped Obama more than hurt him: 24% said his handling of the issue made them think more highly of him; 15% said it made them think less highly of him; 58% said it made no difference in their views.

APRIL 14: A SurveyUSA poll shows Hillary Clinton opening up her lead in Indiana, as Obama slips among men and youth voters:

Hillary Clinton: 55%

Barack Obama: 39%
Undecided: 3%

APRIL 8: An ARG poll shows Sen. Clinton has a single digit lead over Barack Obama:

Hillary Clinton: 53%

Barack Obama: 44%
Undecided: 2%

APRIL 4: A Research 2000 poll shows that the Democratic primary is very much up for grabs in Indiana:

Clinton: 49%

Obama: 46%

APRIL 1: A SurveyUSA poll has Clinton with a lead in Indiana, a state which is being billed as pivotal to Hillary's comeback strategy:

Clinton: 52%

Obama: 43%
Undecided: 2%

Read HuffPost's continuing Indiana primary coverage.

Comments

[PragmaticProgressive]

Prediction - If Obama can take NC & IN on 5/6, the contest will be over.

If they split IN & NC, it will go to the convention.

Unsolicited suggestion - Obama should pour every dollar he has into Indiana so that he can shut her out there.

[Titonwan]

Everybody's coming to my house for a HUGE celebration party! We're having a couple of kegs and barbecue. It's going to be righteous! When Barack wins Pennsylvania it's going to get wild! Bye, Bye Schillary! Bye Bye! Go Barack Baby! Yeah!

[Grannysue]

Not for long dipstick!

[longislandlol]

This race can't get any loopier..

[pertello]

http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=2008804030466



April 3, 2008


Ticket giveaway steals Bill Clinton's thunder

By Bill Ruthhart
[e-mail]

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. -- It was an unexpected showdown of surrogates for Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton here Wednesday, and it sure looked like Obama's representative whipped up the most excitement.

As former President Bill Clinton was extolling his wife's credentials, Obama's campaign office in Bloomington began giving away tickets to Sunday's Dave Matthews concert at Assembly Hall.

Jason Schechtman, 19, Deerfield, Ill., a student at IU, got his tickets about 8 p.m. after waiting more than three hours. He met folks in line who said they'd left the Clinton rally to wait for tickets.

"I was leaning toward Obama, but this sealed the deal for sure," he said. "The Obama campaign announced this right as (Bill Clinton) was about to speak, and it brought everyone from over there to over here."

[Gma11]

When Obama visited our area of Wisconsin, people stood in line for hours (-13 degrees wind chill!).

[96Bravo]

Man, what is it with SurveyUSA? Their polls are almost always more negative against Obama than the other polls. I know, I'm whining...but still.

[DavidAF]

I'm sorry, but you Hillary supporters are a bunch of idiots for trying to down play Hillary's huge and stupid lie! How overly sympathetic do you have to be to say that her bold faced lie was a misstatement? It was no exaggeration! An exaggeration is something that has some truth to it.

It boggles my mind that you Hillary supporters are trying to play this lightly and still support her after all this. If she is dumb enough to lie about something so easily provable, how the hell are you expected to believe her, possibly for something so important or vital and even earth shattering if she were to be in office??

[ArchAngel]

For those who do not know, Indiana has America's most shameful history of racism. This was a huge KKK state. Hundreds (perhaps thousands) of people of all ages would literally celebrate and dance as innocent African Americans were slowly agonizingly tortured to death and then hung up after the fact.

I was often there in the 50's and 60's. I know the depraved depths of these people. Indiana has never faced up to its horrific history and has done everything possible to conceal it.

[Witchitalineman]

If true it is absolute pathetic. I'm white but I don't get these white racists. Shame, shame, shame on them. I always though Indiana would be a fair and decent state.

[taurus271828]

Most shameful history of racism. Give me a break. I live in Indiana and it has a terrible history of racism, just like every other state, all 50 to be exact. There were huge problems with the KKK in the 1920's. But it was also the state that jailed the head of the KKK and many of it's members in the 1920's. It is the only state I know of with a black holocust museum to honor all those who suffered under slavery and jim crow. What about slavery ArchAngel, Indiana was a free state and one of the reasons that there are so many african americans here is because one of the biggest routes of the underground railroad went right through Indiana. One of my ancestors help run it and several of the old houses that were used in it are museums now. Why don't you come and visit one. Indiana's is unfortunately not the best as far as race relations go but every single former slave state was worse and still is today. You are such an expert, you visited Indiana 40 to 50 years ago, how impressive, you really have your pulse on what's going on here currently. Enjoy yourself in your perfect state, which evidently has no history of racism and therefore must not be in the United States.

[oldjuggalo]

You should study your Indiana history a bit more.Last public hanging was was in Marion,In. around 1920.My Grandfather collected postcards and as a child i always thought that's from the "olden"days ,little did i realize it was little over 40 years old at the time,that postcard always left me with an uneasy feeling.Indiana is a very racist state and will continue to be until the future generations get educated or until they find out Indiana is located in a 7 year time warp(everywhere on earth is 7 years advance beyond Indiana).Yes,taurus,I am a hoosier.

[ArchAngel]

Hope that you are right. You seem to be wrong about the museum. Here's what I found:

America's Black Holocaust Museum is the only museum in the US dedicated to the history of slavery. Located centrally in the city of Milwaukee, Wisconsin, the America's Black Holocaust Museum was created to promote racial understanding and to remember those who suffered and died through the many decades of racial discrimination.

The America's Black Holocaust Museum was created by James Cameron, who in 1930 survived an attempted lynching. Cameron, together with two other 16-year-olds, was accused by the public of murdering a white man in the town of Marion, Indiana. The authorities never intervened, and let the locals carry on with the beating and lynching of the teenagers. Cameron was the only one who survived. He went on to fight for civil rights, and was actively involved in the racial equality movement of the 40s and 50s. Cameron eventually relocated to Milwaukee, Wisconsin, and founded the America's Black Holocaust Museum in 1988. James Cameron died in June 2006.

[mesuki]

I understand what you're saying ArchAngel,but I have to believe that in this day and age surely not all of Indiana is that racist. That may hold true for the older folks,but our young people are a little less racist then their ancestors. This is small world and with the internet ,it seems to be getting smaller cause we're able to connect with people from all around the world. We better find a way to get along or else we're doomed!............... With the amount of problems this country faces,there is no room for racism.

[drkazmd65]

As a native born & bred Hoosier (escaped from that state at the ripe age of 29) ArchAngle makes a valid point - if a bit overstated.

Some parts of my home state were, and remain, among the most racist / redneck places in the world. I remember my great uncle John (now dead over 15 years) actually calling a young black man 'Boy" to his face, and almost getting his fat, racist, old ass beat for it - by my brothers and myself as well as that man.

That being said - the overt racism is the exception rather than the rule there these days. Some parts of the state (in and near Indy, and in the Gary/East Chicago areas) are even almost progressive any more. Minority groups of any type might want to shy away from the Martinsville and Hanover areas though - they haven't quite caught up with the 20th (let alone 21st) century there.

[Repub4Obama]

Hey! These results aren't bad considering 1) They are from SurveyUSA and 2) BHO isn't campaigning there yet and 3) HRC has better name recognition.

There's two weeks between PA and IN - lots of time for a media blitz on IN. And with $40 million a month, the campaign will get the word out.

[rinpochet]

Those numbers will change anyway as they did in Pennsylvania once serious campaigning begins. If Clinton doesn't win Pennsylvania by double digits, she loses and right now it doesn't look good.

Now, if Obama actually wins Pennsylvania, it will all be over. We can only hope!

[JanSP1971]

I live in Indiana and I believe Sen. Obama will win Indiana and win BIG! He is here and working hard at getting his word out, and the young workers that have come to Indianapolis from all over the country. I have never seen anything like this! I have faith that we can make a change and we will become the country our founding fathers fought for us to be. I have never been so proud of the young people of our country, they are taking the country back for all of us and so they and their children will have a future.

[Disparaged]

If only the PA voters would actually "LOOK" at HRC and realize that she is just a pretender! She has to lie, oh excuse me, mis-speak to cover her other mis-speaks. What is wrong with people like that? I truly want to understand how they can just overlook these things? I truly want to wrap my mind around those things, so if anyone out there can just explain this to me, I would be so grateful as I feel like a nervous breakdown is on the way. How can anyone just overlook lies and count them as "experience"? Help me, somebody please help me!

[inspectormerlot]

Oh I know. I couldn't watch that repulsive performance yesterday in Memphis. It made me feel sick - had to turn the tv to mute and go and have a shower. Then went out into the garden to get myself feeling clean again.
That woman should be given an Oscar!
Next time I saw her they were showing her giving that spiel in that working class type accent she adopted in Ohio.
She has more personae than a chameleon..

[indianadem]

The problem with these polls is that it only counts likely democratic voters. I work with several people who have been republicans forever, who are going to vote for Obama - and I think there are a whole lot more of these types out there. Not out of some hillary hatred strategy, because they geniunely think Obama can fix what is wrong with America. Because there is stuff wrong with America, and that is not un-american to say so! Anyway, I will guarantee Obama will at least win big in Indianapolis....I see bumper stickers, yard signs, hear talk....I see and hear zero support for Hillary in Indy. Maybe she'll pull off a win in the more rural areas, but I can't imagine her outright winning Indiana.

[midwestvoter]

Indiana, Hillary is lying to you about NAFTA- like her Bosnia whopper, she has been exposed. Share this! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0BrPZYbCdJ4

[rrafiringa]

Vote Hillary!!!!

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7007109937779036019

[TN]

I would like to know who owns the verious survey companies. Everytime SurveyUSA has a poll it favors hillary by 10-12 points.

[bailey2006]

Much like the networks, the media in general plays favorites.

Oh for the news people like Walter Conkrite, Chet Huntley and David Brinkley. Perhaps it was just the times!