Obama Pennsylvania Bid Unlikely To Be Boosted By College Students

The latest poll from ARG has PA tied at 45.Clinton has a 46-42% lead in the latest 5 PA polls and 12% are currently undecided. Allocating 75% of undecideds to Obama, he is currently leading the adjusted 5-poll average by 51-49%. The national trend is clearly to Obama (he leads by 10%). If it continues, he could win PA by 6-10%. On Super Tuesday, Obama won the Alabama primary by 56-42. It has been said that between Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, Pennsylvania is just like Alabama. If so, Obama will close the deal on April 22. With the Casey (D-PA) endorsement, who would bet against Obama taking PA?
Clinton has been a public figure since 1992, Obama since 2004. Hillary can be considered as the "incumbent" and Obama the challenger. Historically, challengers win at least 3/4 of the undecided vote, especially when the incumbent is unpopular - and Clinton's negatives are much higher than Obama's. PA 5-poll moving average trend graph:
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/GallupTracking_30004_image001.png
PA polling data:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html
The real story behind the primaries:
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008PrimariesLinks.htm

It really doesn't matter. Clinton is doing more to destroy her own campaign than Obama ever could hope to gain with the "kids"

Take your head out of your ass. It is the YOUTH vote, not just the college vote.

P.S. You may have noticed that Hillary and her grunts are already making excuses to the media saying her campaign is difficult because she is being outspent 3 to 1. Translation: If she wins "I did it in spite of being outspent 3 to 1 so I must have great grass roots support." If she loses: "It was all due to our inability to get the message out because of Obama controlling the media." Connive, mislead, spin, lie - whatever it takes. That's our Hillary.

I went up to Philly two weeks ago to help with college registration, but they said they had all the volunteers they needed for that, so they sent me to a supermarket instead. It sounded like they had a pretty extensive operation going at Haverford College, which is one of the liberal arts schools where students tend to be more aware and more likely to vote, and where Obama should do very, very well. I wish I had known they needed more people at St. Joe's....oh well. They did do a lot of work to get students registered, and hopefully that will help a little bit. I also discovered when canvassing Saturday in Narberth (right outside Philly) that Obama has plenty of support from upper-middle class white Democrats in the Philly suburbs, and those people tend to have high registration and turnout rates.

Every election the politicians go after the college or youth vote which always fails. Last election the "Rock the Vote" was a big campaign and in the end a very small percentage of under 25 year olds voted. I think this year there is an uptick in the primary turnout but that will pass. Virtually every young person I talk to could care less who gets in. It is a shame that they feel that way but it's a fact of life.
http://mtaricani.blogspot.com/
Mike

No Kidding. College voters help in caucuses in small states.

1. They are a greater % of the overall electorate. For example 25k students in a 100-200k voter state is different than 100k students in a 2M plus voter state.

2. They can be at a place and time to vote, as opposed to primaries that allow people to vote all day.

What a newsflash!

Here's the real reason college students won't have a significant impact on the Penn Primary: It's not a caucus. Simple as that. They won't be able to crash THIS party. They might hi-jack the caucuses. But, primaries? REAL people vote in droves in the primaries. People uninsulated by academia, dorm rooms and disconnect on the real issues facing middle class America.

I wouldn't be so quick to hand Clinton PA. The latest poll shows that the race is statistically tied and with the latest news to break, (Mark Penn and the hospital gaffe), that will have a HUGE effect on how the voters view Clinton in terms of her credibility. I predict an upset in PA. Obama wins within a margin of 7-10 percent.

I wouldn't be so quick to hand Cinton PA. Pundits and the like have totally overlooked the fact that the hospital story and Mark Penn's resignation will have a HUGE effect on how the voters view Clinton. I predict an upset. Obama wins but not by much.

how many of you college students actually fill out out the FAFSA form or let your parents do it instead?

READ THIS READ THIS READ THIS READ THIS READ THIS READ THIS READ THIS READ THIS





http://www.northstarwriters.com/dc163.htm

What happened to Barack. Looks angry to me. What's up? Scares the heck out of me. And he used to look so *friendly-like*. Remember, he said something about Hillary and her illegal immigrant drivers' license stance, and then he adopted her stance. He said during one of the first *debates* *she can not win*, and so publicly and out front, but he cries foul when she is reported to have said the same thing about him in a difficult private conversation with Richardson. But I have not heard it. Have you? Could we take ourselves out of the hooped up frenzy and into reality? Are we going to have universal healthcare under Barack, or, is he going to say, *no we can not afford it*? Inquiring minds want to know. I still say, however, Barack is pretty - when he does not look so angry -.

Anyone have a fork???

A scary note to the Democratic Party Leaders:

The young college educated first time voters are not voting for the down-ballot Democratic candidates in the Primaries. They vote for Obama and leave the others blank. How are we going to win a majority in the House and Senate if only Hillary supporters vote for the Democratic candidates.

We sure need to come up with a voting instruction book for them. A rules book would be a good idea also.

that pic you used is a little suspect
Are you telling me you had nothing better to pick from?