Much Much Less than Meets the Eye in Obama's Victories

Show your support.
Buzz this article up.

• 
• 
• 

Wyoming's Democratic Governor Dave Freudenthal is the latest little known politico to endorse Democratic presidential contender Barack Obama. But like most of Obama's caucus and primary victories, Freudenthal's endorsement is worthless in a fall showdown with John McCain. Harry Truman was the last Democrat to win the presidential vote in Wyoming -- in 1948. Republicans hold a crushing voter edge over Democrats in the state. Freudenthal's endorsement and the tout of it point to yet more mythmaking about the Obama surge. The myth is that his caucus and primary wins in states such as Wyoming and the handful of endorsements he's gotten from the Democratic governors and senators in those states will spell a breakthrough for the Democrats in the red states in the head to head match with McCain.

An Obama win in the May 6 Indiana and North Carolina primaries will likely further inflate this wishful thinking. Indiana and North Carolina, as Wyoming, are two of the reddest states. The last Democrat to win Indiana was Lyndon Johnson in 1964. The last Democrat to win North Carolina was Jimmy Carter in 1976. The vote demographics in Indiana and North Carolina are not much different than the demographics in the other top heavy GOP states that Obama beat Clinton in. A cursory glance at them shows that.

Obama swept to primary or caucus wins in Idaho, North Dakota, Kansas, Alabama, Mississippi, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Virginia and Nebraska. Bush won these states handily in 2000 and 2004. But that's only the start of the problem. Republicans outnumber Democrats in Idaho and Utah by a crushing margin of a three to one, and in other states by margins of two to one and half. If Obama wins the Kentucky primary May 22 his backers will wave this as a big red state victory. It won't be. Republicans outnumber Democrats by a lop sided 400,000 vote margin in the state.

The red states that Obama won in the Democratic primaries have been the guaranteed pathway for Republican presidents Nixon, Reagan, Bush Sr. and Bush Jr. to win and stay in the White House. Their 170 to 200 electoral votes are in the GOP's coffers before the first vote is cast on Election Day. The states are so bankable and reliable for the GOP that it's the rarest of rare sighting to see a GOP presidential candidate even bother to traipse through the states in the stretch run of the campaign.

Clinton's strategy to win the Democratic nomination and the presidency is the exact opposite of Obama's. She recognized that the small Western and Southern states he won are not in play for the Democrats; so why squander time, energy and limited resources in a pointless chase of votes there. Better to spend the time and resources trying to wrest Ohio, Florida, and now even Texas with its surging numbers of Latino voters, solidly pro Clinton, from the GOP. Meanwhile there's Pennsylvania. It's a big, swing state that can make a difference.

A huge percent of Pennsylvania voters are blue collar, anti-big government, socially conservative, pro defense, and intently patriotic, and there's a tormenting history of a racial polarization in the state. Take Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, heavily black and Latino, out of the vote equation, and Pennsylvania would be rock solid red state Republican. Clinton's likely win there means far more than Obama's side show wins in the red states.

Pennsylvania's electoral votes and those of the other swing states can make the difference if the race is on the line. Florida and Ohio cinched Bush's two election victories in 2000 and 2004.
Democrats are also ecstatic at the near record turnout by Democrats in some of the red states that Obama won compared to the relatively lower turnout in the Republican primaries in those states. This also means little. Far fewer Republicans turned out in the Republican primaries in the presidential election battles of Bush Sr. in 1988 and Reagan in 1980, and Bush Jr. in 2000. All three were still elected.

Obama's wins in the rock solid red states have revved up his backers, swayed some fence sitting super delegates to jump aboard his bandwagon (it worked with Georgia Congressman John Lewis) and most importantly wildly boosted expectations that he can do what Democratic presidential contenders Al Gore and John Kerry couldn't do in 2000 and 2004 and that's win in the red states.

The hard numbers and the strong GOP tradition in these states tell otherwise. But wins by Clinton in the big states that are solidly Democratic and the must win swing states that are in play and that she won in the Democratic primaries will yield the needed electoral votes to insure that the race with McCain is competitive for the Democrats. If history and voter demographics are any gauge, these are the votes the Democrats can win, not the ones Obama has won in states such as Wyoming.

Earl Ofari Hutchinson is an author and political analyst. His new book is The Ethnic Presidency: How Race Decides the Race to the White House (Middle Passage Press, February 2008).