Good News? What A Surprise!

The Wall Street Journal has an interesting story today that has implications for us all. "U.S. retail sales took a surprising turn upward during March, a promising sign for the economy given the punishment consumers have absorbed," says the daily chronicle of the American dream, going on to add that "... Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires estimated a 0.1% decrease in overall March retail sales. The actual, 0.2% increase could be seen as bright news, considering many analysts argue the U.S. has gone into recession..."

What's interesting to me is not so much that retail sales are better. That may be a passing episode of economic flatus. What's truly essential to note, I think, is the word surprising.

Consider how many prodigious things the punditry industry and its counterparts in the real world have recently found surprising.

To Alan Schwartz, the head of Bear Stearns (BSC), the sudden collapse of his city-state was surprising. I know some guys who were with him just a couple of days before his house of straw came tumbling down in the idiot wind of the whispering campaign mounted against it. He was upbeat. There's no reason to believe he was doing anything more or less than any leader under stress: he was defending what he thought was a great company in duress, one that would make it through. Boy, was he surprised.

To all the experts who lathered over Google (GOOG), for good reason, in days just past, it's stock swoon is pretty surprising. Wow! If we had only known when its upward hockey stick would bend in a different direction. I sure wish I had. I bought that puppy at $700.

And weren't we all surprised by GE (GE), just the other day? Of course we were. Just as we'll be equally surprised when sometime soon it turns around does a whole lot better.

Closer to home, wasn't my adviser at my bank surprised when the Huge Growth Fund he got me into lost me 20% of my money in about six weeks!

Come to think of it, wasn't everybody pretty surprised by this stagflationary recesso-depression? The banks! The lenders! The real estate brokers! Everybody, I guess, but the financial media that's paid to scare people, the way weather guys on TV are compensated for turning every rain shower into a tsunami to pump up ratings.

We're surprised when things are so so bad. We're equally surprised when out of the blue something slightly good pops up. We're really good at sacking the quarterback after he's already on the ground.

I have an idea, then, given this general tendency to be standing around with our thumbs up our noses when it comes to actually prognosticating the future of just about anything.

Let's not be surprised one way or another. Let's just presume to know a little bit less. And be a little more hopeful at the same time. That way when good things start happening we'll a whole lot less surprised and just a little bit more prepared to make the most of an improving situation.

Comments

[ImmanuelGoldstein]

What surprise? I have know since 2003 that eternally inflating housing values don't constitute. a business model. Maybe I should have my own show on FAUX news since I'm obviously a better predictor than them.

[mimsnpips]

Where are the 3 candidates when it comes to the financial complexities of this country and the world? I don't know much about it, but they have to.

[texastrixie]

Mr. Bing, if you truly bought Google at $700, you may know finance, but you certainly can't read the market very well. I sold all my gold at $990 and all my oil at $101. I have absolutely no business or finance experience, but I do read the paper and get my financial advice from CNBC's '''Fast Money." Maybe you should try watching them.

[WIpatriot]

You so awesome, trix. Go 'splain to Dan Solin how you do this.

[texastrixie]

No, I'm not so awesome. That's the point. Google is a bubble all on its own. So is gold, so is oil. You cannot eat gold or power your car or home on it. No one is rioting in a third world country over gold - you riot over food.

Oil is still going up, but China is drilling in the outer Gulf Coast and today there is word that Brazil may have identified a new (big) oil field. Plus, people are still driving in this country. By summer they won't be. Going somewhere on a whim won't be worth it at $4/gallon. Oil will come down - not to $30 a barrel, but probably in the $85-$90 range. Then it will be time to jump back in. All of this information is in the newspaper or easily accessible online or on tv financial news. If you have a 401 and don't keep up with this stuff, you are going to end up losing a large portion of your investment return.

As I have diversified my 401, I only invest in stocks or commodities that have been recommended by at least two unassociated sources. At night, instead of sit coms or Grey's anatomy, I have on CNBC.

[dadw5boys]

NO !!!!

Many of us have been screaming WITH CAPS that this CRAP O BUSH was going to fall apart for over 5 YEARS.

Alan Greenspan warned in 2002, " These artificially low interest rates can not be sustained for long or it will lead to inflation or worse a recession and devaluation of the dollar.:

Warren Buffet warned in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007 that this was going to fall apart and damage the U.S. Economy.

People who can listen and actually understand that words have spefic meanings they are prepared for this because we have seen it comming like a tidal wave.

ENJOY, YOU HAVE JUST BEEN BUSHWACKED!!!!!!!

[wheresthebeef]

The real surprise will come when it's revealed that the reason for the increase can be attributed to higher prices, and not to higher constant dollar spending.

[dadw5boys]

That jump in retail sales was people stocking up on things they are going to need in the furture.

Many of these purchases were large as they rearange their lives to prepare for the longterm inceases in prices of food and engery.

I expect the retail sales to make a nose dive this summer as the prices of gas rises and food doubles again.

[tmay]

One would expect a tiny bit more from a journalist at Fortune. Even I can tell the weather by, you know, looking outside. Stanley might just want to go to grocery, department and convenience stores to see what daily life costs.

Example:

http://www.northjersey.com/business/smallbusiness/Price_of_bread_keeps_rising.html

A 100 pound bag of flour has almost doubled in price over the last six months.

This is a fluff piece.

[txrotorhead]

I heard that if you discount the price of gas, the number is actually a -0.1%