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Clinton's Pennsylvania Lead: Is It Really 20 Points?

Wall Street Journal   |  Carl Bialik   |   April 14, 2008 06:17 PM

Read More: Clinton Pennsylvania Lead, Clinton Pennsylvania Poll Numbers, Hillary Clinton, Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania Polls, Polls, Breaking Politics News
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A new survey showing Sen. Hillary Clinton leading Sen. Barack Obama by 20 percentage points in Pennsylvania comes from a polling firm with a shaky track record this election season.

The poll, which topped the Drudge Report on Monday afternoon ("shock poll"), was issued by American Research Group Inc. (ARG). In the poll, conducted on Friday, Saturday and Sunday, 57% of likely Democratic voters said they were supporting Sen. Clinton, compared with 37% for Sen. Obama. Just last week, each candidate received 45% in an ARG poll in the state. Other recent polls generally show a much smaller Clinton lead.

But there are reasons to question ARG polling numbers. In a polling report card of 2008 primary accuracy issued by a rival survey company, ARG ranked in the bottom half of more than three dozen polling firms, among 2008 primaries through late February. It also ranked near the bottom in another ranking of pollster accuracy at fivethirtyeight.com, a Web site that tracks the Electoral College. And, as I wrote last month, the widely tracked polling averages at the political Web site Real Clear Politics don't include ARG numbers, because of concerns about transparency. Like they've been in Pennsylvania, ARG polls also were volatile in previous primaries, notably in Wisconsin, which saw a 16-point swing in just two days.

Keep reading here.

Click here for an extensive list of Pennsylvania polls.

 

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collapse several See Profile I'm a Fan of several

Ya know, it's funny, Hillary was wayyy ahead in the polls until the Iowa caucus.

Then people started voting.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 02:19 AM on 04/16/2008
collapse nancytheragingliberal See Profile I'm a Fan of nancytheragingliberal

She will win by 5 to 7 points and STILL be behind. Her constant lying is a turnoff and I am not impressed with her bottom feeding politics. She does not have my vote.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 01:09 PM on 04/15/2008
collapse S1m0n See Profile I'm a Fan of S1m0n

It's doing a wonderful job of deflating expectations. Obama keeps getting burned by the inflated expectations brought about by his ability to close successive 20 point gaps between himself and Hillary. He starts that far back and finishes two weeks later in a statistical tie, but the accomplishment keeps getting overshadowed by the expectation this motion provokes: the expectation that he'll finish ahead, despite this being out of the question only a few weeks earlier.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 12:17 PM on 04/15/2008
collapse jdkjdk See Profile I'm a Fan of jdkjdk

In the rare event that no presidential candidate receives a majority of the electoral votes, then the President is chosen instead by the House of Representatives, from the top three presidential vote-getters in the Electoral College; each state delegation in Congress casts one vote.

Democrats are on target to screw up, in order, to keep Clinton quiet, let's let Hillary run in OH, NY, NJ, FL, MI, and in PA, if she wins in PA. Let Obama run everywhere else. And let's throw this thing into the House.
Where she can make the ultimate SuperDelegate argument.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 12:07 PM on 04/15/2008
collapse bossjimgettys See Profile I'm a Fan of bossjimgettys

As a researcher, I can tell you that a land-line phone survey of 600 people, taken over one of the most beautiful spring weekends in history, has as much credibility as a Hillary Clinton speech on ethics. Who do you think was home to answer those calls? Let's take a wild guess, a lot of elderly women were not out enjoying the 70 degree weather. When, for instance, the 18-34 sample falls below the minimum for accurate representation, those few 18-34 responses that are received are "weighted" to reach the proper level. That means a few responses in favor of either candidate can tilt the results wildly, as we see in this poll, and the final results are not representative of the general population of millions. Poll-watching is a masochist's hobby at best, but if you are to look at these things, look at the sample size and whether or not weighting was used; a sample below 1000 respondents is almost certainly suspect.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 09:10 AM on 04/15/2008
collapse democraticjack See Profile I'm a Fan of democraticjack

I call on all Hillary supporters to boycott posting here at HuffingtonPost. As you can witness, there is no critical thinking going on here, verified by both the headline and the juvenile "who can say the vilest thing about Hillary" posts. Let them play in their sandbox alone and given enough rope they will hang themselves, just like their UNELECTABLE savior is doing.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 11:07 AM on 04/15/2008
collapse Cunningham See Profile I'm a Fan of Cunningham

Excellent idea. Buh bye!

http://www.TaylorMarsh.com

All Hillary, all the time.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 04:36 PM on 04/16/2008
collapse justShareandbeNice See Profile I'm a Fan of justShareandbeNice

My sandbox is bigger than your sandbox!

And that rope? I think it is a swing! Wheeeeeeeeeee!

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 12:15 PM on 04/15/2008
collapse andyboy See Profile I'm a Fan of andyboy

Would you like some cheese with that whine?

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 11:57 AM on 04/15/2008
collapse RedBirdy See Profile I'm a Fan of RedBirdy

HuffPo, I can't take it anymore. An undecided, or even a republican considering voting for a democrat, can't get fair, unbiased journalism on this site. It's bullshit. We know Arianna's an Obama supporter, and most of the writers on this site are too, but come on. Seriously? If by chance, (and I'm a Clinton supporter being realistic) If by small chance Hillary is the nominee, the damage your words have caused will for sure give McCain a win. You expect us dumb ass Hillary supporters, you know the folks you can't believe haven't backed Obama, to just fall in line and crown him when wins the nomination, but can't put your hatred aside for Clinton, for one minute, to do the same in case she's the nominee. I am truly disgusted at the site, and my anger and disgust grows more every time I read these articles. Maybe she is ahead by 20 points, it isn't hard to believe. I'm in PA, and I believe it. Hell, I'm one of the supporters!

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 08:33 AM on 04/15/2008
collapse Repub4Obama See Profile I'm a Fan of Repub4Obama

I have voted extensively for Republicans, so let me tell you how we think: In chosing between neo-conservatives, we will choose the one in red. If we buy Hillary's experience argument, we'll take John's 26 years in the Senate. If we want to talk about foreign experience, we'll take John's 5 1/2 years as a POW to prove he has the mettle necessary instead of Hillary's cake-and-tea parties as first lady. You posit that a Republican with an open mind on this site might be willing to actually take a look at Hillary as an option. You are wrong.

Fortunately for this country, there are moderate Republicans who feel that the party has been hijacked by ultra-religious hyper-Christians who have no grasp on the realities of the world. I for one think that Hagee, Parsley, etc. are just a few steps away in their religious ferver and cranial-rectaposis (head in ass) from the leaders of other radical faiths say, Muqtada Al-Sadr.

To be short: we do not hate Hillary, it's just that if we want someone like her, we'd rather have McCain, who is the real deal. If you want deviciveness, backroom politics, 100's of Presidential pardons and sneaky business deals, we'll vote Red, thank-you, not for a member of the DLC, a profiteer pretending to be a Democrat.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 12:09 PM on 04/15/2008
collapse Cunningham See Profile I'm a Fan of Cunningham

This nation is indeed fortunate that there are moderates like yourself who are willing to crossover from Repub ranks to support and vote for Obama.

DLC Dems is an oxymoron.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 05:06 PM on 04/16/2008
collapse andyboy See Profile I'm a Fan of andyboy

RedBirdy,

As if we couldn't tell from your whiney rant. What a surprise!

Guess what RedBirdy. There's a whole bunch of Obama supporters out there. Oh gee I'm sorry I didn;t mean to get all biased.

RedBirdy are you trying to say the polls are accurate? Is Hillary going to win Pa by 20%?

All of Hillary's supporters are truly disgusted. It's their nature.

I on the other hand am disgusted when a candidate trys to make a cogent remark about how voters feel and then the other candidate personally attacks him.

Barack talked about Americans getting bitter over how badly the economy has been handled and the loss of good jobs.

Hillary then attacks him for daring to address some real issues.

And then you defend her for dirty politicking. Some nerve you have.

Maybe your just uncomfortable with Hillary's history on Nafta? You should be.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 12:05 PM on 04/15/2008
collapse progresemulo See Profile I'm a Fan of progresemulo

What about this angers you? That the results of an outlier poll are being called into question?

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 09:50 AM on 04/15/2008
collapse Passenger57 See Profile I'm a Fan of Passenger57

If Hillary wins the nom,I'm switching to Independent and writing in Obama for POTUS...this way,I don't vote for Mccain AND I tell the Dems and Hillary where to go.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 07:34 AM on 04/15/2008
collapse Ohioliberal See Profile I'm a Fan of Ohioliberal

People need to be reminded that this could be Hillary's last hurrah and to expect the unexpected from a person motivated solely by the pursuit of power for power sake. Obama is going to need all of the silver bullets and wooden stakes he can get his hands on to put her down. I agree with the majority thinking that if Clinton has the nomination even the dead (GOPers) will rise up from their graves to vote against her and the african-americans and youth vote will stay home or vote McCain to punish the DNC.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 06:20 AM on 04/15/2008
collapse natasyenehc See Profile I'm a Fan of natasyenehc

To the Hilary Supporters :

How do you people continue to support a candidate who has lied on numerous occasions ?

What exactly do you see in Hilary"s leadership that inspires you to root for her?

(It can't be her track record of a failed heathcare reform, or accusations of corruption, or her complicity in selling of a presidential pardon to Marc Rich, or the fact she is the largest recepient of lobbyist money in the senate, or that has lied and exaggerated numerous times, or that she has shown what a terrible manager she is by running a disastrously managed campaign, or what bad judgement she has in the choices she makes - voting for Iraq War, landmines, Iran, etc, the bad choices she makes in her advisors, her negativity and general shrill bitchiness, etc etc..)

would love to hear from you... ;-)

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 05:52 AM on 04/15/2008
collapse Amminadab See Profile I'm a Fan of Amminadab

Furthermore, I don't believe that her "experience" either begins or ends with her role as first lady. I know a little something about the Children's Defense Fund, the United States Legal Services Corporation, and the Child Car Action Committee (among others).

I guess I'm just not cynical enough to believe that someone who has done and continues to do great things for poor in America, for minorities in America, and for America itself, is as evil, mean, and self-centered as their political opponents would have me believe. No two people have ever had their finances and their lives investigated to the extent that the Clintons have.... and the worst that was found was that someone got a blowjob and tried to lie about it, without realizing that someone would save, and someone else would subpoena a garment with biological evidence (yuk).

They say that Clinton has thrown the "kitchen sink" in an attempt to "knee-cap" Obama. I haven't seen any evidence of that..... though the opposite appears to be true. Nobody has been smeared more than Clinton in this campaign. Sorry, it's true.

I also want the Democratic Party to win in November, and the Clinton's have won 8 straight elections against Republicans. I think they demonstrate that they can take them on and win.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 01:20 PM on 04/15/2008
collapse Amminadab See Profile I'm a Fan of Amminadab

I believe that Hillary is capable and tenacious. I blow off the petty stuff that HuffPo highlights. I don't think Hillary's "lies" are any worse than Obama's "lies"..... and I realize that most Obama supporters won't recognize that Obama lies just as easily and frequently as any other politician.

Lies and smears about the Clintons have been circulating for 15 years, and repeating them now doesn't suddenly make them true.

I believe that there is much value in understanding the "process" of government, the "fine print" and little "details". This is how policy is made, and legislation is passed. Not understanding the "nuances" is what stifled Jimmy Carter, and I expect the same for Obama. Experience does matter, and Hillary has demonstrated that she understands and has a good handle on these.

Basically, all the trashing of the Clintons on HuffPo and elsewhere doesn't affect me. I know they aren't stealing from their charity, because I have studied up on the good works they continue to do in the world and in the country. I don't believe that they are totally self-interested, and merely hungry for power, because the evidence clearly shows differently. I don't believe that Hillary is riding Bill's "coattails" because the people that know them generally agree that the opposite is true..... that Bill would not be where he is today if not for Hillary.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 01:06 PM on 04/15/2008
collapse joeinvt See Profile I'm a Fan of joeinvt

You forgot to mention her deep seated racism and the murder of Vince Foster. Those are the things that get me up in the morning. I also like that she and Obama have voted exactly the same way on funding the Iraq war and on Bush's Supreme Court nominees.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 09:25 AM on 04/15/2008
collapse captainigor See Profile I'm a Fan of captainigor

Mention of Vince Foster's "murder" = troll

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 11:36 AM on 04/15/2008
collapse 2liveNdie See Profile I'm a Fan of 2liveNdie

They may have voted the same SINCE the war, but not BEFORE the war!!! It's one thing to vote once the soldiers are there in IRAQ to protect their rights and authority in a war zone! He was opposed to them ever going there in the first place, but once they are there how can you vote to not support them? Than we would be talking about how unpatriotic he was!!!

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 10:21 AM on 04/15/2008
collapse gwhizz See Profile I'm a Fan of gwhizz

Well considering he wasn't even AROUND to vote for or against, your argument has no basis in reality.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 10:48 AM on 04/15/2008
collapse justShareandbeNice See Profile I'm a Fan of justShareandbeNice

He WAS "around". He was running for Senate! Would you have made a speech strongly saying you are against voting for the authorization of "force" in Iraq if you were running for Senate? He took a risk. Hillary doesn't take those kinds of risks!

Obama has balls.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 12:23 PM on 04/15/2008
collapse Repub4Obama See Profile I'm a Fan of Repub4Obama

He was not given a vote as a US Senator, but he was running a race to become a US Senator, and took substantial political risk in publicly opposing a popular war. It could have cost him his office.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 12:12 PM on 04/15/2008
collapse ResidentChimp See Profile I'm a Fan of ResidentChimp

I hope so. Only Hillary can save the Democrat Party from self destruction. If Obama wins the nomination the Dems will make the biggest crater ever.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 03:59 AM on 04/15/2008
collapse Pepper14 See Profile I'm a Fan of Pepper14

You dems that think the Clinton's are going to save the world are living in your own bubble. If you put the Clinton's back in the WH we will have nothing but another four years of hate in this country. If they ditch Obama for Hillary you can start saying President McCain.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 09:46 AM on 04/15/2008
collapse JulieinVT See Profile I'm a Fan of JulieinVT

You're kidding, right?

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 05:44 AM on 04/15/2008
collapse MaracaKabob See Profile I'm a Fan of MaracaKabob

The point being that people just make this stuff up, and suckers believe it. The only thing that matters is who wrote the vote counting software.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 02:43 AM on 04/15/2008
collapse MaracaKabob See Profile I'm a Fan of MaracaKabob

New MSNBO poll out today,
Clinton : 73%
Obama : 36%
McCain : 76%
Nadar : 41%

% Amount of daily crap needed to burst head in horrific bloody explosion.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 02:41 AM on 04/15/2008
collapse RReno See Profile I'm a Fan of RReno

Will Hillary become the next Stevenson? Kefauver won the primaries, but Stevenson secured the nomination in 1952.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 02:20 AM on 04/15/2008
collapse nohat See Profile I'm a Fan of nohat

Is Huff ever this skeptical of some of the polls IT uses from time to time? Like the PPP?

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 01:59 AM on 04/15/2008
collapse progresemulo See Profile I'm a Fan of progresemulo

Yes, actually. In fact. Read the blurb above the polls in the "Huffpollstrology" section if you are in doubt. If you remain in doubt even after that, I advise you to investigate Arianna's "Say no to pollsters" petition.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 09:55 AM on 04/15/2008
collapse CosmicRocker See Profile I'm a Fan of CosmicRocker

HA HA. why do i even come to HP anymore?
I counted EVERY front page story as being either pro or neutral for Obama.

There are the usual Hillaryhating articles too.

Which is why i don't really find this place a credible representation of progressive though.

After the primary elections the biases will be reduced, and maybe this place will have something real to say.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 12:42 AM on 04/15/2008
collapse youngharry See Profile I'm a Fan of youngharry

I wonder if this is telling us that the hackable Diebold voting machines in PA will give Hillary a 20% victory.

They are positing it now, because if they don't and she wins by 20%, or double digits, no one will believe it.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 01:40 AM on 04/15/2008
collapse josephiatron See Profile I'm a Fan of josephiatron

Thanks a lot Mayhillary Fowler. Your deceitful, scurrilous attitude and action may have cost the election of the first truly brilliant politician since JFK. And also the only candidate who is not beholding to the lobbyists and PACs. I am disgusted and yes very bitter.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 12:06 AM on 04/15/2008
collapse factanonverba See Profile I'm a Fan of factanonverba

You need to realize that Obama does take money from the employees of firms that are registered lobbyists. Sidley-Austin LLP, for example, Michelle Obama's former law firm. It is the sixth largest law firm in the world with over a billion in revenues, a Fortune 500 client list, and over 600 lawyers of which some 250 are registered lobbyists. But Obama is cleverly deceitful on this. Sidley-Austin is a bundler for Obama and he has 18 other such firms raising millions for him. What the Obama campaign does is take money from those that are not registered lobbyists and thus technically he is not accepting money directly from registered lobbyists. But law firms are partnerships that pool their compensation so that all lawyers profit from the work of others. Sidley-Austin LLP specializes in corporate law and international trade. You know finding loopholes for corporations to exploit.

It's odd that you blame the messenger and ignore the fact that Obama's message in SF was a) inaccurate (he blames the Clinton Administration for a lackluster economy when in fact it was anything but) b) different from what he is telling others in public and c) hurtful to many. They reflect an out-of-touch narcissist and this is not the first time Obama has been out of touch. In July 2007, he complained to farmers in Iowa about the high price of arugula at Whole Foods.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 01:08 AM on 04/15/2008
collapse vernonbc See Profile I'm a Fan of vernonbc

"Sidley-Austin LLP, for example, Michelle Obama's former law firm. It is the sixth largest law firm in the world with over a billion in revenues, a Fortune 500 client list, and over 600 lawyers of which some 250 are registered lobby