Bittergate-Wake Pennsylvania Polls Trickling In

With 3 new polls of the Pennsylvania primary out today, it is very difficult to conclude what effect -- if any -- Obama's "bitter" remarks have had on the race. This is especially so because the Quinnipiac poll, which will be the most cited today because it has one of the best reputations out there, was conducted from April 9th to April 13th, so a very large portion of its interviews were conducted before the controversy erupted:

• In the Quinnipiac poll, Clinton leads 50% to 44%. This is exactly the same margin as last week.
  
• Quinnipiac provides the numbers for the group it calls "Reagan Democrats," among which Clinton leads 55% to 40%. This is obviously the group that Clinton wants to seduce to demonstrate Obama's general election weakness.
• The big worry for Obama: Only 50% of Clinton supporters say they will vote for Obama in the general, versus 26% who say they will vote for McCain. Among union households, it falls to 47-32. Clinton fares better among Obama voters, 70% of whom would vote for her, including 74% of Obama supporting union households.
  

• The Rasmussen survey, meanwhile, finds Clinton picking up some ground. She now leads 50% to 41% -- up from a five percent lead last week.
  
• The poll was conducted entirely Monday. 75% of Pennsylvanians say they heard about the remarks, and only 35% said they agreed -- but 59% of Obama supporters.

• Finally, Survey USA released its weekly poll, finding Hillary Clinton up 54% to 40%. This is actually a slight decline from last week's poll for Clinton; in that survey that became widely discussed, criticized as an outlier or as the start of a trend, Clinton led by 18%.

The abundance of polls released since late next week confirms, at least, that the race is no longer tightening like it did for much of the end of March and early April. At one point, it only seemed like a matter of time before Barack would overtake Hillary but the New York Senator rebounded in most polls since -- starting before bittergate.

This makes it especially difficult to assess whether any trend discovered in these polls has anything to do with the coverage of Obama's remarks. Even polls showing a Clinton improvement are inscribing themselves in the continuity of last week's polls, rather than showing a drastically new trend.

Clinton is doing her best to ensure that there is a new trend and as dramatic as possible an acceleration of the movement towards her. She is now running an attack ad against Obama for his "cling to" remarks. And today, she is assembling a team of 100 Pennsylvania Mayors for a collective endorsement; an event is being organized in Harrisburg at which many of them will appear, and some "small town" mayors will hit Obama over his comments about small town voters. It does look, however, like many of these mayors already support Clinton. This is clearly not meant to announce new endorsements as much as adding hype to bitter-gate, making sure the media covers such as a large event and reaching more voters.

Read more at Daniel Nichanian's blog: Campaign Diaries

Comments

[PioneerKing]

Hold on there just a few weeks ago 26% of clinton's voters said that they would vote for Obama. According to the poll that you quote Obama is doing better now.

[badnfluence]

"Only 50% of Clinton supporters say they will vote for Obama in the general, versus 26% who say they will vote for McCain. "

Yet more proof that Hillary Clinton's campaign is all about getting her elected regardless of the side effects. It is evident from her egomaniacal, Rove-like strategies that she doesn't care if she destroys the Democratic party in the process. Congrats Hillary--when this is over and your campaign has finally succumbed to the sniper fire, you can down a shot of Crown as the Republicans use your talking points. Now those are tactics you can Xerox.

[ann1]

At this point who really cares! If he's unelectable, she's double that. One thing the polls fail to reflect are the number of AA voters who will stay home election day if she steals the nomination. And they definitely will not vote for Mccain. AA have had it pretty rough regardless who's in office.

[alindra]

Look at today's polls: Obama is leading by 3%, and the sample size is over 1,000 people, i.e. rather large.

[cackal]

"Quinnipiac provides the numbers for the group it calls "Reagan Democrats," among which Clinton leads 55% to 40%. This is obviously the group that Clinton wants to seduce to demonstrate Obama's general election weakness."

AAARRGGHH! How does this demonstrate "Obama's general election weakness"???? The Clinton campaign is driving the narrative on electability so, clearly, they will not point out that "Reagan Democrats" have a habit of voting Republican in general elections. Sure, Hillary can win their votes in a primary against Obama but in a general election against McCain?? I would not want to bet the future of the Democratic party on that. I would hope that superdelegates will not be seduced into thinking that just because Hillary gets the "Reagan Democrats" in the primary she is more electable. I think that I would wager a good chunk of change that these voters will vote for McCain in November.

I saw a Reuters/Zogby poll today that had some scary numbers for Democrats - with respect to handling the economy (the economy!!) McCain was 1st, Obama 2d and Hillary 3rd. (Sorry, I do not know how to put a link in here.)

[AnninCA]

Thank you for attempting to put the polls into perspective. It's so confusing this year. I presume that's because we've never been in this kind of tight race that provokes the reaction that we're all waiting as perched birds to see what will happen.

Whew*........how tense?

This is the downside of "excitement in the race," eh?

[kenjisan]

here's something every pollster should take a look at and then asked to comment on

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exsmFDYyK4U

[NC4Obama]

The race is over, Hillary just wont admit it.

[Prolix]

Thanks for this Daniel, your instincts are correct that polling is only predictive when looking through the lens of trending. These trends are instructive.

One trend that seems fairly constant is the "me no votey" for the other candidate come November. I believe both numbers. Given the vitriol evidenced from posting throughout the HuffPo comments, the Obama supporters are easily explained when it comes to Clinton. As for the Clinton supporters, it seems to be more nuanced -- I believe the 26% who say they will abandon the party is based on voting for experience. For those of us who saw the debacle of Carter, Mondale, Dukukis, and Kerry, these voters are not willing to chance turning over the keys of the free world to a novice who has run for higher office every three years for the last twelve.

[karela]

And a very good reason for Super Delegates to step in and throw their support behind Obama now. Hillary does her best to destroy everything non Hillary. She hasn't helped herself to any more votes. Her polls stay the same. Her likability and trustworthy polls go even further down. The only thing she accomplished when she went ugly in PA was that she hardened the hatred in her established supporters. Do we really, really want our kids killed in a bad war forever? Are the women, and it is a LOT of women who say these vote for McCain things, really the kind of women who would tell Solomon to cut the baby in half if they can't have it? Is that what feminism has come to? If we have become a coalition of people who are primarily destructive if we can't have our own way, then I made a big mistake. I shouldn't have burned my bra.

[Researchguy66]

Are your kids really, really being killed in a bad war?

[Rule Of Law]

What do Polls and ass----s have in common?

Both full of it.

[Charmed]

If the superdelegates turn over the pledge votes, I guarantee you they will see a lot of people sit this one out. We're not going to vote for McCain, that's just a myth.

[Researchguy66]

I don't see the difference, but the McCain campaign thanks you anyway.

[Fabienne]

Don't sit out -- write in.

[MichaelTenery]

Because this achieves anything in American politics.

[mamamay]

Hil's changed the dictionary meaning of CLING.Obama was right, again. CLING means to adhere, stick to as in routine, to remain consistant, to keep hold on to, to resist separation from, and, to grasp hold on to. Folks where ever you are, when the chips are down/ you're feeling blue/ melancholy, etc. we tend to cling/adhere /grasps on to (something)/hold on to, or reach for something of comfort. Be it food/drink/ play a game or sport/exercise/ or watch a sport, in an effort to calm down, wind down, or just relax for the moment. We are Americans and this is what/how we do/react when we don't feel so good about something. Obama talked to HIS supporters and they confided in him. He reported it. Hil talked to HER supporters and told them about Obama's experience, Hil twisted the message and mis led her own supporters, by her own misspoken words, Plus Hil put out a negative ad in PA. to support her Misspoken words about Obama's experience in HOPE of proving Obama unelectible. NOT THIS TIME. This is not going to work in Hil and JMcC's favor this time, to falsely accuse him of being an elitist and a condescending person who speaks down to working class poor folks. They need to look in the mirror. Theyll see reflections of elitist, a condensendor, a player hater, called, Hil, Bil & JMcC

[BitJam]

Gandhi's philosophy and practice of nonviolent resistance is called "Satyagraha". I was taught that the literal translation of this Sanskrit term is "cling to the truth".

[mamamay]

No one has to worry about McC in the Dem Party. Obama will get the nominee and he will beat McC. If they give this nominee to scream/whining Hil, There will be chaos. She has not won more states even if she wins PA. If her ancestors are from PA. she deserves to win it, but it still, wont be more states. Plus she has not won more delegates. The SD's will be earned by Obama and he will be named the Nominee. Then we all get busy and go to work to get him elected in the Nov. This will happen. Yes, we will get on board , roll up our sleeves and get busy to close this deal on McC. Nov it will be over Folks are sick & tired of Washington, Iraq,economy issues, and folks dragging feet and not producing.Yes folks, Obama will bring an end to this war, and hard times. We'll wake up America to the tune of America. McCain will be waking up too wars over, and he'll be asking what happene? Who won? etc.. He wont know what happened while he slept so long. So go tell it on the mountain. Obama in 08

[neocon43]

Yes, but she has won the most important ones.Bring Obama on and you can put the check mark by Florida right now for MCCAIN!

[harriscrl3]

I have a huge problem with the who would not vote for their candidate poll. First of all its easier for Obama supporters to say that they will vote for Hilary since he is in the lead. It can be seen sort of like a gesture thing. If the nomination is given to Hilary when they expect it to be for Obama I expect that the numbers will be similar. I also think this number reflects the here and now people are passionate about their candidates and will support them particularly if they are behind but once the election happens it might be a different story. so I think it just measures the here and now.

Carol

[Fabienne]

If Senator Clinton's supporters will actually NOT vote for Obama, perhaps it is a good sign in that they have moved from Democrat to Independent? I would like to see the entire country be Independent, everyone actually basing their votes on who they thought was the best candidate rather than on the party choice. Good to know the Clinton supporters are not blind party loyalists. If they hand the nomination to McCain, it will matter less to the Independents than it will to the diehard Democrats.

[eznelson]

It is too bad the talking heads and the Clintons would rather create another diversion then deal with the real issue that Obama tried to raise in a 15 second badly worded sound bite. The fact of the matter is that rural America IS hurting real bad. Rising gas prices, a broken health care system, free trade policies that hurt the middle class, and farm subsidies that predominantly go to the multi-million dollar corporate farms.

Of course rural America is bitter. Who wouldn't be under the current conditions. Obama attempted to start a dialogue to address this because for too long politicians on both sides have tried to distract rural American with wedge issues like Religion, immigrants, guns, and gays instead of addressing the ACTUAL problems.

No one is trying to discount these other side issues but the fact is NONE of these issues will do anything to alleviate the frustrations that rural America is feeling right now.

[Cuneo]

Once he only has one candidate to deal with things will proceed quite easily.

BTW, I will be bitterly opposed to the Clintons in every election that I have the opportunity to participate in, forever.

[mamamay]

Ditto ro cuneo... That's why this bus needs to hurry and get to the end of the line. We need to bring this party back together and get ready for Denver and Nov. We will, yes we can. Please just hang on a llttle bit longer/. We re getting closer. Bill is out begging for $10 from folks to keep hil going til june?Jul? Aug? whenever. Whew!

[Dash Riprock]

I don't buy the "only 50% of Clinton supporters say they will vote for Obama..." This is just in the heat of the battle in April. There may be a few will hold to that, but most of those folks will end up voting for Obama in the general election. Especially when Obama and McCain are compared without Hillary in the picture.

This is a natural effect of a hard fought primary and everything will change in the next several months.

[Fabienne]

Dash Riprock, are you Brad?

Meanwhile, I, too, don't but that 50% of Clinton supporters won't vote for Obama because most Clinton supporters are the Democratic faithful, and I can't imagine they would opt for McCain or allow him to win by default. I think they are saying this to push the superdelegates to support her, though I presume it is too late for that. Meanwhile, Independents and new voters who support Obama don't feel party loyalty, so perhaps they will sit out or write in (I favor the latter).

[pupbayer]

I don't believe 70% of Obama backers would vote for Hillary. All we see on this site is they will NEVER vote for her.

[rdemocracy]

He doesn't believe it either, he is just hoping that if he says it with enough authority that we might actually believe it. You know, experience, sniper fire, yatta yatta....

[mesuki]

I t has nothing to do with the heat of the battle...I couldn't vote for Hillary. I hate her that much! Besides,if Obama doesn't get the nomination I really don't give a crap if Hillary or McCain becomes president cause we will be F-----D either way!

[SouthCentralDel]

No I would vote for her. Will hold my nose as I do so. Probably vomit. What other alternative would there be? Four more years?

[FreedomLoverX]

I promise you, I am done voting for more war, less jobs and an incompetent liar. I will NOT vote for Hillary - ever.

[Softnsweet]

They are lying.. no way will 70% of voters would vote for Hillary. I listen to talk radio and I know for sure just listening to some black listeners, they will leave the party. I know that I would. There are whites on the talk radio that said he same thing.

[eznelson]

John "War Monger" McWar / Hillary "Flipper" Clinton - 2008

Sounds like a good ticket to me.

"I was for NAFTA before I was against NAFTA"

Hillary Clinton

"I was for the war before I was against the war"

Hillary Clinton

"I was against guns before I was for guns"

Hillary Clinton

What next flipper?

[Javalation]

"Only 50% of Clinton supporters say they will vote for Obama in the general, versus 26% who say they will vote for McCain." Of course Hillary could change these numbers if she loses and is willing to speak positively and supportively of Obama. Only time will tell if she is willing to help her Party, or if she'll do whatever she can to undermine his candidacy, assuming that she'll be a shoe-in in 2012.

[SophieL]

She has said repeatedly that she would support him. It is he who has wavered time and again on the same question. When he loses the Democratic primary, he will probably go Independent. That's how he is.

[CaptainObvious]

For some reason, and maybe it's just me, I just don't believe anything she says. It seems she is a sore loser, as she is staying in the contest and continuing to slime Obama, even though there is no mathematical possibility that she can win.

[em0199]

Sophie I disagree it is Hillary who has everytime Obama has won a contest not even acknowledged it. Obama congratulated her every single time now you are telling me that he says he won't support her and she says opposite. I disagree he has already shown her support by acknowledging her wins.

[Cuneo]

She would have no chance in 2012 after this debacle. If McCain somehow pulls off a miracle and gets elected, she would face bitter opposition from within the party for the rest of her political life.