All the polls this weekend show Hillary Clinton leading in Pennsylvania, but Obama's the one drawing the crowds. On Friday, he spoke to the largest group on the campaign so far-- 35,000, assembled in Independence Park, spilling onto the street-- and Sunday in Reading he drew about 2600. Clinton's drew an estimated 1500 at a high school a few miles away the day before.
It's possible that Pennsylvania voters already know Clinton, who has been on the national stage for years. They may also have made up their minds to vote for her and don't need to confirm in person. Obama has the advantage and disadvantage of being a lesser-known commodity.
"I'm just here for the hype," admitted Chris Huey, an "undecided Republican" accompanying his Democratic fiancée to the Obama rally.
"I'd be foolish not to be here," said Kristen Stuart, a teacher who wanted to know what Obama had to say about No Child Left Behind.
All are delighted for the chance to see the candidates in person--an opportunity that may not happen again in Reading, the fifth largest city in the state. Huey pointed out that in nearly a decade of campaigning and governing in the White House, Bill Clinton came to Berk County only once. I didn't tell him that on Friday night, the former president had been only sixty miles away, stumping for his wife at an art opening in a converted industrial space. There were maybe fifty people there. Bill Clinton, who'd already held five other events across the state that day, seemed more generally weary than shocked at the size of the crowd, although it might have been the smallest crowd he has addressed in twenty years.
Still, Hillary Clinton's message of fighting for solutions resonates, especially in a city like Reading, where crime is up and manufacturing jobs have all but disappeared. A waitress delivered an eloquent, fifteen-minute personal history, explaining how she'd worked as an administrative secretary for one manufacturer after another, only to be laid off when each one closed or moved. She has a college degree, fifteen years of professional experience, and a competent, authoritative way with a menu. When the last manufacturing plant closed, she was told that no jobs at a commensurate salary existed in a two hundred mile radius. If she wanted to make the same money, she'd have to move. Tired of chasing opportunities across the country, she decided instead to stay in Reading and return to the service industry. The restaurant where she now worked had been a former industrial plant--and, at the tail end of the lunch hour, it, too, was nearly empty. She declined to say for whom she was voting, but she said she was listening carefully to the candidates and would go with the one with the best plan to improve job opportunities in Pennsylvania.
Declared Clinton voters echo their candidate's themes of seeking solutions for specific problems. John Jasinki, a World War II veteran, said he hoped Clinton would first end the war in Iraq and then do something about phone companies. "Every time you call to get some technical help, you talk to somebody from Indonesia."
His wife, Doris, added that she thinks Clinton is "wonderful," and if she can't solve everything, she can "at least give it a good try."
Nanette Miller seemed to pick up on the Clinton theme of a country under threat, plagued by job loss, diminished infrastructure, rising energy costs, lack of health care, predatory loan companies, an ongoing war-- and "all the problems we don't even know we're going to be confronting."
"I feel safe with her. I can sleep at night," Miller said about Clinton.
Across town at the Obama rally the following day, many of the concerns about the economy, education, and the war were the same, but the tenor and appearance of the crowd was different. Whereas Clinton's event had been held in a leafy, quiet suburb, Obama was speaking on an urban street with potholes in the road and bodegas on the corner. Two hours before his event, a line stretched down the block. A quick scan of the crowd showed faces of all shades. The Clinton rally had been overwhelmingly white, and attendees could breeze into the gym, whose floor and bleachers remained partially empty.
Steve Krechman, an engineer originally from New York, praised Obama's ability to get people talking and energized. "The president has to have a certain amount of charisma. Obama has it in spades," he said.
Inside the audience kept rising to its feet and spontaneously chanting the candidate's name.
"This is a feisty crowd," Obama said when he took the stage. "Whaddya'll eat this morning?"
If an election were decided by volume alone, Obama would win hands down-- among the Democrats this season, demonstrated enthusiasm is like campaign donations: Clinton's support is impressive until you compare it to Obama's, which is an order of magnitude beyond. The number of people in the crowd were wearing Obama t-shirts and buttons was striking, and the audience erupted into chants without the direction of any campaign volunteer. Of course, each voter still casts only one ballot, and neither the size nor the reaction of the crowd can predict how an election will swing. Voters at both the Clinton and Obama rallies described themselves as undecided, and each included people who were definitely voting for the other side.
What is clear in Pennsylvania is that both candidates are going all out to win--their schedules are packed and their energies visibly ebb and flow--and that their approaches are distinct. Clinton's rhetoric invokes an embattled country in which change must be wrested from the forces of inertia, greed, sloppy policy. She suggests a social contract that is transactional: I learned that "if you worked hard and took responsibility, it would be rewarded," she said; and "when someone serves our country, we serve them in return." At the end of her speech, her campaign played the theme song from "Rocky."
Obama hits on almost all the same issues as Clinton, but his language affirms the audience's experience, even when he is describing problems. "We're spending $10 billion dollars a month in Iraq; that's money we could spending right here in Reading," he said, and the audience moaned in agreement. "People are losing jobs," he continued, acknowledging the Hershey plant would soon be moving. "Less money is coming in than going out. Costs are going up--a gallona milk, a gallona gas." Several people clapped and whistled. Obama offered a social contract in which people "were in it together": "Politics is not about tearing people down, but lifting people up," he said, and the crowd was on its feet again.
This is not to say anybody let anybody off the hook. Obama indulged in a good ten minutes of defending his campaign (if someone elbows you enough, after a while you elbow back) and painting the difference between him and his opponent as wanting to play the game versus change the game (at Clinton's name, the audience booed). In the Q&A session after the speech, voters posed sharp questions: would he reform welfare again? What did he think about the zero tolerance policies that punished family members of offenders in public housing?
The candidate gave tough love back. Some welfare reform had been needed and everyone must make an effort to find a job, although the government should provide more resources; he was sympathetic to grandmothers who didn't know their grandsons were dealing drugs, but not sympathetic to those who did.
Fathers also needed to be involved, he said, speaking as someone whose own father had left when he was two. In one of the folding chairs, a toddler let out a long wail. "I know, I know," Obama ad libbed. "It's upsetting when your father leaves." The audience laughed. When it was time to go, the campaign played Stevie Wonder's "Signed, Sealed, Delivered," and a pair of women on the balcony grooved along.
In Reading, Obama supporters may be signed and sealed, but it's yet unclear whether they will deliver him the race on Tuesday. The conventional wisdom in this primary has been that Clinton appeals to white, working class voters and Hispanics, the two demographics are the bulk of the Reading population. At least two voters expressed the wish that the two candidates would work together instead of attacking each other.
And Lauren Scaduto, a twenty-four-year old transplant from New Jersey who loves Obama for being "progressive," characterized her adopted town as old-fashioned and slow to embrace change, the buzz word of the Obama campaign. "Reading is not conservative, but it's traditional," she said. "People don't try different things. We didn't get a sushi restaurant until three years ago."
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If Hillary wins by 5 or less points, and throws the balloon and confetti party, I will vomit
If she can't win PA by double digits or at least 8 points she should bow out.
I was in Texas working for Obama's campaign, and he was drawing crowds there too. Sure, he eventually "won" Texas, but not in that big way we all thought he would - enough to stop Clinton in her tracks - and he had far bigger turnouts at all his events, and she still won. Was it that 3am phone call ad? Perhaps. Will this bin Laden ad work in PA? Perhaps.
I think his campaign is keeping a watchful eye on PA.
I would just point out here that until very, very recently, PA was considered a total and complete lock for Clinton. She consistently had a 20-point lead in the polls there, and it was a given that she would take the state, only question was the margin. Now, the difference between the two is maximum 5 points and dead even in some polls. I think this is a most extraordinary development that has gone mostly uncommented.
With all due respect to the faithful HRC canvasser who found so many Clinton supporters among the undecideds, I don't believe it. First of all, the HRC campaign can't really be believed about anything at all, and secondly I think these poor people who've been canvassed so many times by so many campaigns are just playing with folks' heads a bit. Obama's monthlong meteoric rise in the polls would certainly indicated that the undecideds are breaking quite clearly for Obama.
Hillary may possible squeak out a victory in PA, a slim one. Given the absolute collapse of her support from a 20-point lead to squeaking out a slim victory, all tomorrow's primary will accomplish will be to show how strong Obama is, that he can even take a strong victory out of Clinton's hands in PA. He continues his ascent to the nomination the same as before.
Of course, he could very concievably win. It will be very, very interesting to see what HRC does if she can't even win PA.
I fear she will win. Even if by one vote, I can her her proclaiming what a tremendous victory -- that he outspent her - yeah, over 1.3 MILLION people have donated to Obama's campaign - THAT is democracy.
Here's all about HRC - in her words:
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=exsmFDYyK4U
She's suppose to win. It's about the delegates. Just hope that enough voters in Phila. turn out to put it out of reach.
No surprise that Clinton's promise to do the hard work to get the desired results resonate with older folks, though the Obama message of talking to a solution appeals to many. Yet in every tough situation at work, hard work always gave better results than any amount of talk. That said, talk helped some feel better when results were short of desired outcomes. After gWb, what will work for you?
Very nicely displayed. I hope more people will get the difference between having a solution prepared to fasten onto a problem, and motivating people to do their best, trusting that we can work together; not wasting energy by pointing at bogeymen, though such exist, but keeping pointed ahead instead. We've seen solutions drawn up with arrows, boxes, bells and whistles all attractively arranged like a bowl of spaghetti about to be dumped onto us, but real solutions arise from the best efforts of many participants, some of whom disagree with this or that but support anyway because they were trusted to provide input. It's a refreshing thing to see with a spaghetti bowl coming at you like a tossed pie.
I think it must be time for me to go cook dinner.
What I don't understand is that people don't think with logic. You are right there is no way possible that she can win. She is just prolonging this primary.
Some suggest that she is doing this anyways because is she can't have it , then she will make it last longer to ruin the democrats chance in November. She would rather have McCain win and then run again in 4 years since he is so OLD.
I would hate to think she is that calculating but lately she has been acting more like a Republican than a Democrat. Republican's like to run FEAR ad's, Democrats don't run on FEAR. What the hell is she doing? Her political games are costing the troops their lives. She voted for the WAR, and now she said during the "debate" that she would envade IRAQ if they pissed her off. She told Keith Olbermann the same thing tonight. Jesus, I don't know what the hell is wrong with McCain and Clinton. Peace is what we want, NOT WAR!!!
I worked in Chambersburg, PA and I think Obama will surprise there. I expect a 47%-53% win for Clinton but it really wouldn't surprise me if Obama won the Chambersburg area in south-western Pennsylvania. I knocked on 500 doors, talked to about 300 people and about 50% where for Obama. Many of these were Independents and Democrats.
I'm gooing to make some generalizations about what I see going on. I'm from NM and when the caucus took place here there were larger crowds for Obama but Clinton won the popular vote. She got more votes than did Obama. The same was true in California and New York. You can't go by the turn out to rallies The same happened in Texas. Obama does well with the young who tend to show up. When you go to read comments I notice that the Obama supporters generally are more angry and hostile whereas the Clinton supporters are quieter. The Obama supporters make character abusing comments whereas the Clinton supporters talk about more substantive things. Of course there are Clinton supporters who have been nasty to Obama. I am well aware that Obama's resume doesn't provide his supporters with a whole lot to champion . Maybe that's why they feel they have to practice character assassination on Clinton whether what they say is true or hearsay. Tomorrow will be a very interesting day for both candidates and their supporters.
Clintons crowds are quieter !.......You must be high! Clintons supporters a dillusional..like Hillary they are holding on to a scenario that will never happen. They tend to be the nastiest ones over here,so give me a break!
Clinton supporters talk about substantive things? I have to assume you are making a funny. "It's her turn" is not a substantive thing. And you try to come off as an "observer" but you are an HRC supporter so it doesn't work. If you want credibility, you have to be honest about your predilictions.
Obama '08
I also live in NM - Hillary 'won' the state by less then 1% of the vote. Her campaign workers took official ballot boxes to their homes for pete's sakes. I also attended the caucus in my area - all of the candidate's supporters were well behaved. As for the posts, there are angry supporters on both sides of the coin.
What appears to be missing from the considerations of too many PA voters is that Hillary Clinton has no chance to win anymore despite what the media might be saying. NADA...zip!!! The math is totally against her and her campaign is flat broke. If Democratic voters wanted to ensure that McBush wouldn't be elected and his destructive economic solutions wouldn't prevail, they would pull the lever now for Obama to try and end this campaign asap...even if Obama wasn't their first choice. I am sorry to have to tell Hillary supporters this in PA but her campaign is finished. It wasn't run well, she blew through about $30 million dollars in her last Senate campaign, which is money she could have desperately used now, and she has been running a destructive campaign for the Democratic party while aligning herself with right wing media and right wing talking points against Obama.
If you really want to ensure that McCain wins in November, just keep Hillary alive enough to make sure she gets to Denver so she can engage in a destructive floor fight for delegates.
RJ Crane, topplebush.com
My partner and I have spent the last three weekends near Philadelphia--Bucks County, the home of a high number of liberal Democrats--canvassing for Clinton. We have knocked on over 500 doors, and have talked with over 200 people (the rest were not home).
We do not knock on every door; we are given a list of registered Democrats. The lists for the last three weekends have focused on "undecideds", as determined in phone surveys.
Of those 200 "undecided" people we talked to, we found a total of 16 Obama supporters. We found a total of 121 Clinton supporters. The remaining 63 people remained undecided. However, remember that this 63 reflects a total over three weekends. We found FAR fewer undecided people in the last weekend than in the first.
This dovetails with the most recent Zogby poll, which shows undecideds beginning to break for Clinton. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/NewsmaxPADay5NR%204_21_2008.pdf
FYI, the volunteers and staffers are not a bunch of 55 year old women. They are primarily college age, female AND male, as diverse as you can get in terms of race. The enthusiasm is amazing, electric and overwhelming.
I am optimistic about tomorrow. My optimism is not based on articles in newspapers, comments by pundits, or posts by bloggers; it is based on real conversations, looking at people in the eye, hearing the conviction in their voice. They don't need to go to rallies; they already know who they will vote for.
While I seriously commend your activism, I am equally committed to the candidate I believe will be best for our country, and that is Barack Obama.
Although I do not question that you are accurately relating your experiences, I have found that there are usually a number of people who will 'agree' with whatever any political canvasser says. Perhaps this is done out of 'politeness', perhaps to avoid a conversation they fear might become confrontational, but there will always be some who respond favorably to your message but act and think differently once you have left.
I respect your relating your viewpoint and experiences in a positive manner and without 'badmouthing' the other side. Hillary is lucky to have followers with the passion and commitment you and your partner seem to have. I truly hope, however, for the sake of our country, that your impressions are wrong.
I just saw the part of the article where the older couple talked about calling the phone company and talking to someone in Indonesia (he probably meant India). I also know that at my bank (where I have been recently laid off), they are still expanding their offshore operations and are using contract companies with foreign workers to staff domestic jobs as well (mostly IT and call center positions).
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/09/07/AR2007090702780_pf.html
So I really, really, really, REALLY hope your wrong.
and also mind boggling.
Where have the solutions that Clinton purports been? Must we elect her president to be privy to the many ways she has to revitalize the economy, banish poverty, eliminate unemployment and all the other promises she makes? She is excellent at making campaign promises and below average at delivering on them. One of her problems is she never has a back up plan. e.g. no jobs for western NY? reason: she thought Al Gore would be president. why not think it through and create a alternate plan if he is not ? Plan to be the nominee by Super Tuesday? Didn't happen, no alternate plan and is now trailing a tyro. That she still has any credibility is ming boggling.
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Posted April 21, 2008 | 07:42 AM (EST)