Pennsylvania Primary Arrives: What's At Stake?

The Pennsylvania primary is underway today, and reports are already pointing to a big turnout. Even as Pennsylvanians go to vote, however, several reports are questioning the effect that today's results will have on the larger race.

What is really at stake? Once again, Hillary's win is not likely to be reflected in the delegate count, with a net delegate pickup perhaps no higher than 10. The Washington reports on the PA primary breakdown:

The state has a two-part primary ballot, with voters choosing a presidential candidate and also picking from a slate of local delegates. Essentially, each of the state's 19 congressional districts runs a separate contest for delegates, weighted according to turnout in recent elections. A total of 103 delegates will be awarded according to each district's popular vote, while the remaining 84 will be distributed according to the statewide popular vote, or as unpledged superdelegates. In Democratic strongholds, such as the 1st and 2nd districts, both in Philadelphia, participation rates are high, and those districts allocate seven and nine delegates, respectively.

Obama could win seven of the nine delegate at stake in the 2nd District, and four of seven in the 1st, his campaign estimates.

By contrast, the 12th District, in central Pennsylvania, where Clinton is expected to perform well, allocates five delegates; the 9th District, also pro-Clinton, awards three. Five other districts award four delegates each, while one (the 6th) awards six. Under party allocation rules, unless Obama loses by large margins in these even-numbered districts, he could split the delegate take.

And McClatchy reports that another key indicator for superdelegates, the popular vote, will still be a near-insurmountable hurdle for Clinton after the Pennsylvania primary:

With more than 25 million votes already cast, Obama leads Clinton by an estimated 13.7 million to 12.9 million, a margin of more than 800,000.

So even if Clinton managed to win Pennsylvania by the same 10-point margin she won in Ohio, more than current polls suggest, she'd emerge with only a 200,000-vote margin. That would leave her still trailing by more than 600,000 votes -- with no big states left.

Read HuffPost's full coverage of the Pennsylvania primary here.

Find out the latest poll results from HuffPost's Pennsylvania poll page.

Comments

[patch61]

sen.hillary clinton cares about you obama said on cnn why he was campiganing in little cities he just wanted the superdelegates nothing to do with the people issues like the katrina people in new orleans or tennesse where martin luther king died and and to talk about all the people in the world that needs help he is just focused on what he could get as the superdelegates can or will get him to the presidenance that to me is very selfish where sen. hillary clinton wants to help you and give back to the americans and give jobs and to make us a pwerful place once again to not want to need but for ourselves and to our communities...............

[23000Days]

Do you know about periods and commas?

[patriotscholar]

If there are truly ballots without Obama's name on them, provisional or not, then someone should be prosecuted, period. There is absolutely no excuse for that to happen. None. Kinda reminds me of Florida.

[nazcalito]

what is this thing about the link to the ballot that doesn't have Obama's name on it, that Mr. Tenery has posted more than once?

http://www.runhardmedia.com/hrc.jpg

I checked out www.runhardmedia.com and it's not a political site, it's some kind of music site. Why would that site be interested in the Pennsylvania primary?

[SenorBob]

Those are fliers, not ballots.

[WMichaelTenery]

Which is why it is fraud. it is a flier saying it is a legal ballot. According to election law this is a crime to hand out at a polling place.

[WMichaelTenery]

It is the provisional ballot being used when the machines breakdown which they seem to be doing with regularity in African American districts. There are now several articles on it. Including one here on Huffington post political page. The music site is just where they were able to scan and put the ballot online.

[2CoolCats]

Thanks for the update. Hopefully this will be rectified and the people who did it will be outed and reprimanded.

Obama '08!

[Relax08]

So any rational person has to ask "Why are the Democrats going through this process in Pennsylvania today?" And the only rational answer is "Because Hillary Clinton can't accept defeat."

The fact that Hillary can win a democratic primary in Pennsylvania really indicates nothing more than as between Pennsylvania Democrats she does better. So what? In North Carolina, Oregon, Illinois, Missouri, Wisconsin, etc. etc. Obama does better amongst Democrats.

This whole thing is a media circus which is allowed to occur at great cost and expense because Hillary and Bill Clinton are obsessed about returning to the White House.

If the Democrats lose in November it won't be because Barack's a bad candidate- he's a great candidate- it will be because Hillary and Bill Clinton chose to pursue their own private agenda at the expense of their party and their country. Shame on them!

[aliceblue]

I just heard Hillary on the ABC news feed
claiming that 'a win is a win' followed by 'what
can you expect, Barack outspent me by
three, maybe four times.'

[Gumpster]

I think it is funny that Hillary keeps talking about being outspent 3-1 in Pennsylvania. It is nothing to be proud of! The reason she is being outspent is because SHE HAS NO MONEY! She mismanaged her campaign to the point it is now in debt, while Barack has $40 million yet to spend. Who will be ready on day one?

[JoelNH]

And he still has 40$million dollars left, while she is in debt. She won't be able to keep up. You're right a waste of $

[freeWILLY]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/03/pennsylvania-primary-poll_n_94943.html says that the final Pennsylvania poll that was taken shows that Hillary increases her lead over Barack.

Whoever did that headline has to be mad, since the April 1st poll showed:
Hillary - 53%
Barack - 41%

Lead = 12%

While, the last poll they mentioned, April 21 (??), showed:
Hillary - 51%
Barack - 41%

Lead = 10%

Sigh! Keep spinning! Perhaps you spinners will spin away from Earth's orbit. And, we'll be, finally, at rest.

[JoelNH]

Well, if you cherry pick polls, you can make it say anything. Barack has closed the gap much more than 2 points, but apparently not enough for a win.

[BlackMagicWoman]

Her smile is evil

[freeWILLY]

Noticing recently that a lot of blogs are being locked off, "comments closed".
I wonder why?

[GerryS]

the censors are out to "lunch"

[freeWILLY]

Ooooou! I'm gonna tell on you GerryS! lol

[oldnews]

I figured it out what my real problem with Hilary Clinton is.

If you know Hillary is spinning and misrepresenting her changes in the campaign to win the nomination for the presidency, how can you trust her to do anything different in her reporting on the progress in Iraq or any other issue.

It is the same old politics we have seen from the current administration. With Hillary she will only try to cover-up the democratic missteps.

[RThM]

And don't forget the quality of the advisors she surrounds herself with. And the fact that her mismanaged campaign is now ten million dollars in the red. NOTHING in who she is or how she acts bodes well for a Clinton Whitehouse.

[shel3364]

Agreed.

Everything she's done in this campaign to "win" the nomination is not going to fly on the world stage. How will our adversaries (or allies, for that matter) react to having someone lie to them and then laugh if off? I guess if they cross her, she can just "obliterate" them.

She bugs me as a candidate, but bugs can be swatted. The thought of her as president terrifies me.

[freeWILLY]

Divert/convert your fear and terror into urgency to dispatch her into oblivion.

[hugs4u]

There are reports that machines are messing up and that paper ballots are being used without Obama name listed on it.
Just another thing showing how closely Hillary and gw bush are similiar to each other. If they can't win honestly, they will do anything dishonest to win.

[anney]

There are reports that machines are messing up and that paper ballots are being used without Obama name listed on it.

=====

I hope this is just a terrible rumor.

[WMichaelTenery]

Nope, it's true.

http://www.runhardmedia.com/hrc.jpg

[GerryS]

Unfortunately, unless someone quits, Hil's scorched earth policy is the end of any chance for the Dem's to win in Nov.

Hillary is the new Nader!!

[Javalation]

There are a lot of small vendors who hope that Hillary will have the decency to pay them off before she packs it in...

[anney]

Since she's having such a hard time fund-raising, she can pay them out of the $109M of their personal wealth right now. They can spare it.

[GerryS]

since the Clintons worked so hard for their fortune, I do not think that will happen-

[ohiodem250]

What's Evan Bayh gonna do when Hillary loses Indiana?

[IndependentMeans]

McCain is still drawing a pension of $58,358 that was not listed as income on his tax return. He just released that info via his spokesman. Watch below regarding his personal wealth, this needs to be seen by everyone. MSM should be talking about this!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_7PfSEtiXPw

[mortrefuge]

Pennsylvania matters because when she wins she can claim a moral victory and keep raising funds. The only way to get her out of the race is if her supporters stop giving her money.

[k6007]

Her base(blue-collar, highschool grad, or lower) don't have JOBS! They're fighting to hold on to their homes, and Voting for the person that sold their livelyhoods to China....Sad and extremely telling, all at once.

[hugs4u]

Most of them have stop giving to her. She running up a huge deficit. The poor people who is doing things for her on credit are going to end up getting stiffed.

[Grunty1]

Judging by her debt load, they already have.