Is Hillary Lucky to be a White Woman?

Read more reactions from Huffington Post bloggers to the Pennsylvania Primary results

First of all, you have to give Hillary Clinton a ton of credit. Whether you agree with the way she has run the campaign or not, she is a fighter and no matter what happens she keeps getting back up.

Her campaign theme song should definitely be "I Will Survive" by Gloria Gaynor. I'm surprised they haven't used that on the campaign trail yet (it would also help because it's a rallying cry for women everywhere -- if you don't believe me, just play it at any bar or club and see how the women in there react).

I come away from each of these primary nights shaking my head at how well she has sprung back up. You do have to confess there is a certain Rocky quality to her campaign (they should also play "Eye of the Tiger" at campaign stops to rally the men).

Now, a lot of that admiration will be washed away the next time she runs one of those 3AM ads or pretends to be concerned about what Barack Obama's neighbor or pastor said. But for the moment being, in the afterglow of yet another surprising showing (at least surprising in my eyes), I have to give credit where credit is due.

So, of course, I was curious as to how she did it. I dove into the numbers and for every positive number for Senator Clinton there was an equal and opposite number for Senator Obama. The "bitter" flap didn't seem to make much of a difference. Obama didn't do as well in affluent, highly educated voters as he usually does, but it was close. Clinton did better with late deciding voters (are these the voters that the fear ads work on?). But no one number blew me away.

Except one category that Hillary Clinton almost always does well in: white women. She did even better in this category than she normally does, plus Pennsylvania has more people in this category. Senator Clinton won 65% of the white women vote. In a state as white as Pennsylvania, it's hard to overcome that good a showing in that large a category.

Now, Obama has overcome that barrier before in plenty of white states and he has won many states where the majority of the voters were women (which are most states). But when a giant chunk of the electorate comes out in that large a number to one side, you'd really have to clean up everywhere else to compete.

I know Geraldine Ferraro got in trouble for saying Barack Obama was lucky to be a black man running in this race. Obviously we understand what she means, that winning large percentages of the black vote helps in some key states. What was frustrating was that she didn't seem to understand that it also cost him plenty of votes and that historically a black man has been anything but lucky when running for a nationwide office (or in many cases, statewide office).

It's obviously not just the color of Barack Obama's skin. African-American voters didn't turn out in large numbers for Alan Keyes in the 812 races he's been in. Michael Steele didn't get any love in Maryland when he ran for governor and neither did Lynn Swann in Pennsylvania. Obama has obviously attracted large portions of the African-American vote because of his stance on the issues, his viability and his personal appeal as a candidate. Once he crossed all those thresholds, then his race helped him with black voters.

The same can now be said of Senator Clinton. If it was so easy for a woman to become president, how come they're 0-43? Obviously Senator Clinton put herself in the ballgame by running an effective campaign and holding views that appeal to the voters. Having said that, after she crossed these thresholds, it has helped her that she is a woman. To deny that would be a little silly. Sixty-five percent of the white women vote goes a long way.

Let me repeat that this doesn't take anything away from Senator Clinton's accomplishments. And some can argue that women should be proud to stand together to give their preferred candidate a better shot. But would she still be in this race if she wasn't a woman? My guess is no.

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Read more reactions from Huffington Post bloggers to the Pennsylvania Primary results

Comments

[frustratedinohio]

You're missing the point. The reason Obama is lucky to be a black man is because the media fears him. They are afraid that if they do anything but kiss his ass, they will be accused of racism. Obviously, they would be. Every time something doesn't go well for him it's due to racism. President Clinton opens his mouth and utters five words and suddenly the country's first black President is a racist.

You cannot say the same thing about Hillary. The press bashes her constantly. She is damned no matter what she does. Sexism is an acceptable part of our culture. Just look at the articles at this site today. The message is that people didn't vote for her, they voted against him. It's has an underlying sexist tone.

So if she has a solid base she deserves it. She earned it over time. It has nothing to do with luck.

[TurnThePageGA]

No you both are missing. She is a woman whose last name is Clinton is why she gets away with murder. How many times have the Clintons played the sex card? They are attacking the girl. Obama can't be to aggressive with her because as a Black Man he would definitely be labeled a mysoginist. We are remember when she was running for Senate and during the debate the other candidate came over and invaded her space. That went real well for him. Obama has had navigate the mine field of being labeled the black candidate (That the Clintons have tried to pin him down with) and not be disrepectful to the older white woman. You Clintonistas even go as far to label him as divisive simply because he had the unmitigated gall to actually challenge her for the nomination. According to you He should just get out of the way even though he is leading in every metric that matters.

[GeorgeP922]

She gets passes on everything.

Did the media call her out for courting Richard Mellon Scaife?

How about for trashing Democratic Activists?

Or for threating the people of Iran with annihilation for a perceived threat embraced by neocons?

[nypoet22]

maybe, but i think the main point F.I.O. was making was that hill's earned her constituency by working hard on their behalf. you can love her or hate her, but you can't deny that she has tried hard to do what she sees as good. her views may not be the same as mine, but i won't begrudge her the sincere effort she has made. i voted for obama, but i like her a lot too. what i don't get is how so many of her supporters are so bitter that they'd vote for mccain or stay home just because she's losing. obama's supporters are young and sometimes impulsive, hers should have enough experience to know better.

[WaynesWhirled]

That's true, just like what Geraldine said about Obama was true. But you don't see anyone going ballistic about it. Obama and his supporters love double standards.

[ThirdSection]

Well, I suppose we have to go through at least one election where the race and gender cards are thrown freely around before they can be allowed to become irrelevant.

[EbonBear]

Quite. Both campaigns (or more often, their supporters) have hurled accusations of bigotry around pretty freely but once this election is over, they'll become irrelevant (unless, of course, a candidate in future does/says something REALLY bigoted).

[DennyCrane]

Well of course she wouldn't be where she is today if she wasn't a woman. She also wouldn't be where she is today if she hadn't been married to Bill. Thanks to him, she's got huge name recognition, major political connections, and a vast fund-raising machine. Plus, she gets to count 8 years of being First Lady as experience (although personally I don't think it should count for anything). But the fact is that a lot of women, particularly older women, are voting for Hillary to shatter the glass ceiling, to see an event many of them thought they'd never see in their lifetimes, and to send a message to men. I suspect a lot of these women know that she won't get the nomination, but it's hard to let go of a dream. And being a woman has certainly helped her with the media, despite her claims of sexism. Up until Iowa, they declared her the inevitable nominee and we all know why. Because a female nominee would be historic and, more importantly, huge ratings. Take away her gender and her last name and she'd be no different than a bunch of other white male senators.

[BHWolf]

Hillary Clinton continues to win because Hillary Clinton has millions of supporters. Get it?

Obamanation is just that an abomination!

His wife wasn't proud of being an American for the first 43 years of her life; BO's bitter comments against all Americans working class or not; his 20 year support of his Pastor Wright; just for starters will keep me from supporting him.

You can't tell me that in 20 years Obamanation never heard a negative word spoken by his friend and Pastor, Pastor Wright? or that he never was curious to check out Wright's DVDs sold at the gift shop at the Church? Puleeze!!!! Wake up people . . . His friend Wright probably gave the Obamanation's DVDs as Christmas gifts.

Hillary has a huge fan base and quite a few intelligent supporters who stand behind her. Get used to it folks!

[MadamBlu]

Hillary must be so proud...

[tasukibeth1]

I know I speak for a lot of white women when I say that Hillary Clinton can bite me.

[rachaelisacancer]

And I know I speak for a lot of white women when I say that Barack Obama's supporters can bite me.

[BHWolf]

Such class you display!

[kira181]

"Let me repeat that this doesn't take anything away from Senator Clinton's accomplishments."
and
"But would she still be in this race if she wasn't a woman? My guess is no."

Keep repeating that. To yourself. After a few days, try it out on your mother, your aunts, your daughters, your wife, the next woman you run into...

Let me know how that works out for you.

[Reddogs]

I'm a woman (actually a Wellesley grad just like Clinton) and I do believe that Clinton would not be where she is if she wasn't a woman - especially a former first lady. She has no political accomplishments of her own to stand on and if she weren't a woman she wouldn't be winning.

That's one of the main reasons I didn't support her in the caucus in my state. I want the first woman candidate and President to be one who got there based on her own accomplishments, not on the accomplishments and name recognition of her husband!

[kira181]

You're right. She wouldn't be where she is if she wasn't a woman. She probably would have been the former governor of Arkansas and a two-term president in the 90's. With all of the upsides minus the downers.

[Tubby]

Nope. I think Hillary would be just as tough and unflappable if she was a Chinese American eunuch.

[SLal]

I agree that Hillary is as lucky to be a white woman as Obama is lucky to be a black man. This statement, taken in its most literal sense, may not garnder much support from some since, as you point out, both groups are 0-43 for the presidency. But taken in the spirit of Geraldine's comments, and of how I am reading this article, then I am personally comfortable with it. I continue to believe that given two qualified candidates, there is nothing wrong with - and I'd go so far as to say that it's one's duty - to tie-break based on elements that are deeply personal to one's self such as gender, race, religion or sexual orientation. This is how we change the face of leadership over time so that it's not all white males (per the 0-43 stat).

[BlueFan]

Well, this Democratic white woman is NOT voting for Hillary unless I absolutely have to. She had my vote several months ago, but after watching her campaign strategies, I'm sickened by her slash and burn approach. I could have overlooked (with much angst) her votes for the war and Kyl-Lieberman, but after she basically propped McCain over Obama as the more experienced/viable candidate, she lost me completely. It's all gone downhill from there. Nothing like handing the Republican party their talking points on a silver platter. Let's not forget the elite BS, either. Talk about the pot calling the kettle black.

If I HAVE to vote for her versus McCain, I will - but with GREAT reluctance and trepidation. She's a Republican in Democratic clothing and I don't trust her as far as I can throw her.

[ProgressiveBum]

Very well said!
But let's take race and gender out of the equation, let's look at accoplishments in their respective Senate careers. Sen Clinton has 4 more years "experience" than Sen Obama does.
How many bills with their respective names on it passed the Senate?
Clinton: zip, zilch, nada
Obama: 2
with Sen Lugar Obama passed the bill to secure loose nukes
Obama passed the Senate ethics bill
Clinton, however, preferred to be a fighter engaging in time-tested gridlock politics.
To me this gives a whole new meaning to "Yes we can"

[Reddogs]

Here Here!!!!

[Samm319]

What no one talks about is that during the Democratic primary, women outnumber men 59-41%. That's an absolutely huge advantage for Hillary. In the general election historically it's more balanced at 50/50. So, if Barack can overcome those odds, can Hillary really claim she woud be more electable since she will lose this huge advantage? Also, doesn't this also say that Barack is a lot stronger in the general because he won the democratic nomination despite these long odds? Why hasn't this been discussed anywhere in the whole "electability" equation?

[Reddogs]

However Republican women hate her!!!! I don't think she can pull many of them because the don't vote based on solidarity of gender as the militant feminists in the Democratic party do.

[katefranklin]

If she was a white man she would be some amalgam of John Edwards (populist, but seeemingly insincere), Chris Dodd (robotic and charisma-less), and Mike Gravel (jaded and indignant) -- which would give her a total of 18 pledged delegates to Obama's 1719.

[darcy]

Cenk, you can say all you want, but you'll never convince me that this primary is about sex or race. Both candidates are strong in some ways and weak in some ways. Would you want a pushover as president? We should all be celebrating the fighting spirit of BOTH those candidates.

[OverIt]

Camille Paglia: Why Women Shouldn't Vote for Hillary Clinton

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2008/04/19/wuspols219.xml

[apoyo]

Electing this woman will be a disservice to all women. She and her husband will end up embarrassing the nation again. She will set women back instead of propelling them forward.

What woman would state that she would obliterate a whole nation of human beings for the act of one madman? The whole point of a woman in charge is to have peace in the world. She would have no qualms about bringing about a nuclear holocaust. Isn't that what JFK tried so hard to avoid? Have we been living on borrowed time? This is the peace on earth this woman would bring?

And no, this time she did not "misspeak".

[frustratedinohio]

Invest in an American history book--the modern era. JFK almost got us blown up.