Pennsylvania Station 2008

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Posted April 23, 2008 | 11:26 AM (EST)



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Read more reactions from Huffington Post bloggers to the Pennsylvania Primary results

Pennsylvania was clearly going to be either the semi-finals or the finals in this game. Looks like the semi-finals are headed into overtime. And that's a good thing.

In the pre-internet old days of backroom politics, the party powerful would long ago have taken these two candidates into the proverbial smoke-filled room and knocked heads together until they struck some kind of deal that resolved which one would be the party's nominee.

Today, we have a much more transparent, much more participatory, much more democratic-with-a-small-d process. The superdelegates are the closest thing the party has to the backroom now. Clearly, if they continue their trend to supporting Obama, then Clinton is sunk even though she won Pennsylvania. Quite likely they'll ultimately go with whoever they perceive as a winner. Before, it was Obama. Today it could be Clinton, for three reasons.

First, Hillary Clinton has shown that she--she--the pronoun is important here--is tough, resilient, focused, and able to stand all the heat the kitchen can produce. Whatever the ultimate outcome of this race, no one can say women aren't able to hold up through the hard knuckle political contact sport. She won by that vaunted double digit in Pennsylvania despite being outspent three to one. She hung in there despite being badgered mercilessly to drop out, despite despicable gender-biased media, and despite her husband's foot-in-mouth disease. Even the arch-conservative Bill Bennett praised her perseverance. The woman just keeps slogging through.

Second, her argument that she has won the big battleground states the Democrats must carry to win the general election has become more visibly potent in Pennsylvania. Obama's predictable dismissal of that fact overlooks the distinct possibility that many (like my 88 year old uncle, a lifelong Democrat and social liberal) prefer McCain over Obama. I caught up with Dana Kennedy, a Clinton campaign volunteer who went to Pennsylvania from Arizona to help during the last few days there, at the Hyatt Hotel in the midst of the victory party. "I am amazed at all the support she has," said Kennedy. "Voters went to the polls confident that she would win. We talked with several Republican women voters who re-registered as Democrats's to vote for Hillary. The scary thing is that they say if Obama wins, they'll vote for McCain." People are wondering whether Obama, attractive as he is, can "throw the knockout punch" first to Clinton and then to McCain.

But perhaps the most significant factor to have come out of Pennsylvania is this: Six out of ten new voters broke for Obama. But the late deciders broke for Hillary in exactly the same percentage. Late deciders often decide general elections. They tend to go for safety over sizzle, the person they feel they know best over the newer entry. That's why incumbents almost always win. In addition, most elections are won or lost by very narrow margins, often a swing of two percent or less. So that small group of voters who wait till the last minute to decide makes all the difference. Hillary can now build on her contention that she is the more electable of the two candidates by pointing this out over and over.

Pundit Tim Russert, who has typically been extremely hard on Clinton throughout this campaign, observed that whoever captures the headlines captures the momentum, and whoever captures the momentum captures the money to go forward. Clinton, he said will have all of those today. We'll soon see whether that is true.

For while the economy is the top issue for voters right now, the economic issue she must pay most attention in the short term to is that of her own campaign. If she can raise the money, she can stay in the race. If not, not. On that point, politics has not changed much since the backroom days.

Hillary Clinton's victory speech began, "It's a long way to Pennsylvania Avenue and the road goes straight through the heart of Pennsylvania." Wouldn't you know, just when we thought the exhausting game might be over, the finals have been rescheduled until at least the early June primaries, when all the people will have spoken.

Read more reactions from Huffington Post bloggers to the Pennsylvania Primary results

 
 

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Chuck Todd likes to say "Clinton got an automatic 3% - 5% in PA," because she had the majority of the PA democratic machine supporting her and Clinton also has several 527's spending for her which she fails to mention.
Hillary as the incumbent and should have been winning everywhere with greater numbers.
Hillary has the "head of the democratic party former President Clinton," and nearly all of the democratic party establishment nationwide and all of the democratic old line funders supporting her as well as the likes of Rupert Murdoch and Richard Mellon Scaife supporting her. This is the Clintons 4th presidential contest and yet Obama is ahead.
Hillary should be worried that it is she who has not been able to put away Obama, a black freshman senator from Illinois.
As the candidate who has been working the political scene for 35 years and planning this run for president as far back as 1996: WHY HASN'T SEN. CLINTON CLOSED THE DEAL AND BEEN ABLE TO PUT THIS CONTEST TO AN END?
Why is it that a black freshman senator from Illinois has been able to do so well against the Clintons?
Remember white blue collar folks in many states (including the ones Obama has lost) have voted for Obama. Obama is doing pretty well for a first time run for the presidency.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:50 PM on 04/23/2008

OMG! Gloria! Do you actually think that voters are that stupid that we can't see that it was republicans going to the polls for Hillary yesterday?! And she still did not get a landslide victory! PLEASE!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:52 PM on 04/23/2008

PA proved nothing. Clinton needed a double digit win to stay competitive. As has been stated since February; Clinton could win ALL of the remaining primaries & still arrive in Denver significantly behind Obama in delegates.

All PA proved was what this son of Pennsylvania predicted. That it is one of the most racist & backward states in the Union. Full of ignorant, largely Catholic, mostly female voters who see in Hillary some pathetic chance to redress all the wrongs they have suffered. Even the Governor, Ed Rendell, said he didn't think Pennsylvanians were "ready" to vote for an African American.

Congratulations Pennsylvania! You have further ensured a McCain victory in November! Is that what you wanted?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 05:43 PM on 04/23/2008

"First, Hillary Clinton has shown that she--she--the pronoun is important here--is tough, resilient, focused, and able to stand all the heat the kitchen can produce. Whatever the ultimate outcome of this race, no one can say women aren't able to hold up through the hard knuckle political contact sport." Was anyone saying that to begin with? I mean besides the far right troglydites. I'm a feminist but this talk about "its time for a woman" is nonsense. Its the same kind of thinking that got us the worst supreme court justice of all time (Clarence Thomas -- its time for a black), the worst attorney general (Gonzo -- its time for a Latino) and the worst secretary of state. Real feminists believe that women should rise and fall on their merits no more and no less. And Senator Clinton has shown that she has neither the integrity nor leadership skills for the job.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:08 PM on 04/23/2008

RedDogBear, There are many reasons unrelated to the identity politics you imply for the U.S. to have a woman president at long last. But notwithstanding that, it matters very much who is in the White House because it matters very much who is doing the appointing to such positions as Attorney General and the Supreme Court. Women's failure to vote their own best interests is precisely why GW Bush has had that privilege for the past 8 years and why this real feminist is supporting Hillary.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:36 PM on 04/23/2008

Obama has already won the nomination, at least if the analysts are to be believed. He has and will likely retain the popular vote and elected delegate vote. If the party insider hacks, the so-called "super" delegates disregard the wishes of the voters and instead choose Hillary, then they will lose an enormous number of people who will leave the party and change their registration to Independent, and write-in Obama.

People will simply not accept this pig no matter how much lipstick or perfume is put on it. The party leaders cannot disregard the votes of the citizens and expect to keep their party intact.

The Clintons keep telling the world that the "super" delegates properly may disregard the wishes of the voters and choose Hillary for any reason at all, including if the Clintons simply buy that vote by giving the superdelegate money. Or maybe because they would rather see a white person run. Any reason at all, no matter how illegitimate, is okay. That's the Big Lie being pushed by the Clintons: democracy is just a quaint old idea, no longer relevant. Let the "leaders" decide.

Hillary cannot win. ABC: AnyoneButClinton.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:55 PM on 04/23/2008

"Obama has already won the nomination, at least if the analysts are to be believed."

That's your problem right there. You, and many others across the nation, are listening to these analysts. And, they are more often than not, anti-Clinton.

It's not about wanting to see a white person run. It's about winning, and Obama can't pull it off in the states needed to win the general.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 05:36 PM on 04/23/2008

If Clinton had been forced to deal with "Screw 'em" in the ABC non-debate the way Obama dealt with "bitter"-- then we could say she can stand the heat. Instead, it's more like-- she can dish it out but she can't take it. When she's asked the first question in a debate, she complains-- but is still "tough" and "resilient." When Obama wants to focus on the economy and not flag pins, somehow that's wimping out.

Clinton won Pennsylvania via distractions. And distractions would be the main theme of her presidency. We're a long way from the time when she was the candidate of detailed solutions-- now it's shots of Crown Royal and past pastors.

Still, I believe she changed the game last night-- politics apparently being just a game. Obama needs to win this on points, not a knockout. He almost has enough delegates-- a few more contests and it will be over. After Oregon, I hope.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:43 PM on 04/23/2008

All Hillary Clinton has proved with her win in Pennsylvania is that she has a hardcore gender based advantage coupled with all the reactionaries she attracts because of her warmongering. She remains the worst possible choice.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:36 PM on 04/23/2008

Gloria, Hillary isn't fit to reside in that seat. Imagine! Hillary putting her hand on the " BIBLE, and knowing what the people know of her " Lies, imagine how she would disgrace that book.
If you really want a " Real Woman in that seat then put Ms. Huffington in the White House.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:29 PM on 04/23/2008

Sports analogy.

One team has more points.

The other team has way less points, but "played really well."

You're suggesting that the team that "played really well" should win.

Doesn't happen in the real world.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:57 PM on 04/23/2008

I guess you live in La La land. Hilliar can't win except by a coup d'etat. When was 9.4% a double digits? Gov Rendel said that Penn state will go for Obama regardless. You guys show up everyday with a new spin and a new wishful thinking, hoping that whatever you're selling sticks but I'm here to tell you that your fiction won't be sold here. Have a good day!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:49 PM on 04/23/2008

Superdelegates will decide the nomination.

Maybe HRC, maybe BHO.

No fiction here, have a great day!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:57 PM on 04/23/2008

"She won by that vaunted double digit in Pennsylvania..." Sorry but 9.4 is still a single digit victory. See http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:47 PM on 04/23/2008

Wrong. Anything above 5 is rounded up to 10.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:07 PM on 04/23/2008

Wrong! 9.4% is not 9.5%

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:10 PM on 04/23/2008

Tubby is a typical HRC supporter, trouble with MATH. Hopefully he's removed the W sticker off the back of his Tahoe by now.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 03:03 PM on 04/23/2008

Pundits talk about Hillary's toughness, and how she has persevered against such strong opposition. As if Obama hasn't done the exact same thing and more in fighting past the far greater odds of going against the most powerful establishment political machine in the country today: the Clintons. "... That's why incumbents almost always win." Except for Bill Clinton in 1992, but you're right in that older voters are more likely to *fear* change. (You also, by the way, just undercut Hillary's argument that she would be different -- i.e., better -- than her husband.) Lastly, you still have not explained how Clinton can get nominated against the will of the voters and not have it smack of illegitimacy.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:04 PM on 04/23/2008

I was pointing out that the prevalence of incumbent victories is a real failing of our system, in case that wasn't made clear. But it is a statistical fact.

Your use of "the Clintons" as a monolith and an epithet tells me you aren't open to other perspectives but thanks for the comment anyway.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:44 PM on 04/23/2008

First, Obama has shown that he is just as tough, resilient and focused since he has born the brunt of most of the negative campaigning, dirty tactics and smearing.

Second, even Rendell admits that Obama can win PA and the demographics have changed in PA that will turn the state blue no matter which Democrat wins the nomination. As for the other big states, they will go blue too, once a nominee is chosen. There is no doubt about that. The national polls tell the story. Obama is increasing his lead against Clinton in the national polls.

Third, late deciders usually go for the name recognition so there is no surprise there.

The fact is that Hillary Clinton can't win on the math, and her negative campaign has swayed the superdelegates towards Obama. He will have a steady stream of superdelegates coming out for him over the next few weeks until the primaries are finished.

When the primary voting is over, Obama will still be ahead in the popular vote, pledged delegates, total delegate count, and most states won.

Howard Dean will force the rest of the undecided delegates to come forward and pick their candidate in June, and that will be enough to push Obama over the 2024 threshold.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:38 AM on 04/23/2008

All Senator Obama showed is that he can spend money like a drunken sailor in a crucial battleground state--against an opponent despised by the MSM--and still lose.

Not a comforting piece of information, insofar as the general election is concerned.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:59 PM on 04/23/2008

God Bless him and i hope he continues to spend the money we gave him until the Clintons are defeated

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:04 PM on 04/23/2008

He had it to spend, and didn't leave his vendors (small businesses like mine, who can ill afford to carry the Clinton's) out in the cold.

He spent so much to make her spend, and thereby starve the beast. It was a very smart strategy.

She blew $110,000,000 on and before Super Tuesday, and is now in the red. Who do you think handles other peoples' money better?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:40 PM on 04/23/2008
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