Vote Demographics Spells Much Bigger Trouble for Obama than Pennsylvania Loss

Barack Obama's decisive Pennsylvania loss to Hillary Clinton was predictable and inevitable. Obama pretty much confirmed that when he tossed in the towel and spent the crucial countdown hours to the primary vote at a fundraiser in Indiana. But the loss in that state is the least of Obama's troubles.
But let's start with Pennsylvania. More than eighty percent of the voters there are white, a significant percent are blue collar, rural, less educated, and less financially well-endowed. Many are gun owners and devoutly religious. The Democrats among them are solid Clinton backers. Pennsylvania voters mirror the voter profile in a majority of states.

One in five Pennsylvania voters made it clear that race was a factor in their vote. Translated; they would not vote for an African-American for president, no matter how fresh, articulate and race neutral his pitch. If Obama hadn't gotten ninety percent of the black vote mostly in Philadelphia and other urban spots in the state, Clinton would have demolished him.

Obama's one big and consistent trump card has been the youth vote, those aged 18-29. They are voting. And the overwhelming majority of them are voting for Obama. But Pennsylvania showed the problem in banking on them to propel a candidate to victory. There simply aren't enough of them. They make up slightly more than 10 percent of the vote in the state. Their number is dwarfed by older voters over age 45 that make up nearly seventy percent of the vote there. Older, white male, rural voters have been the pathway to the White House for GOP presidents since Nixon. In a head to head contest with McCain, Clinton almost certainly wouldn't beat him out for their vote, but she'd be competitive. Obama wouldn't be. The highest percentage of young voters is in solid Democrat or Democratic leaning states. In 2004 the youth voter turnout was highest in Minnesota (69%), Wisconsin (63%), Iowa (62%), Maine (59%), and New Hampshire (58%). In Pennsylvania, there was even an ominous note with the youth vote; race sneaked in. Clinton did surprisingly well with white voters under age 30.

The hard numbers and demographics may be less troubling than voter attitudes and that's Democratic voter attitudes towards Clinton, and especially Obama. They can be summed up in one word: polarization. That polarization has gotten wider and deeper with every swap of a name call, finger point, and character attack by Clinton and Obama on each other. One quarter of Democrats say they will either cross over and vote for McCain or stay home if Obama is the nominee. Fewer Democrats say they will defect if Clinton's the nominee. Put bluntly, a general would be hard pressed to win a major battle if one quarter of his troop's desert before the first shot is fired.

The dominant issue for voters is no longer the Iraq war but the economy. Those that are most likely to stampede the polls in anger over a turned South economy are the voters that Clinton best appeals to. In exit polls, voters said that they thought Obama and Clinton would do better than McCain in handling the economy, but more favored Clinton in handling the economic meltdown.

Pennsylvania was a crowning vindication of Clinton's win the big state strategy. These are the states that are in play for the Democrats and these are the states that will decide ultimately who will sit in the White House. Obama's wins in the South and West are side show, feel good wins. These are locked down red states. With the exception of Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996, a Democratic presidential candidate has won only one of the eight western states of New Mexico, Nevada, Idaho, Montana, Colorado, Utah, Wyoming, and Arizona since Lyndon Johnson in 1964.

Four of the states with remaining primaries are textbook examples of the meaningless of a Democratic primary win in these states. The last Democrat to win Indiana was Lyndon Johnson in 1964. The last Democrat to win North Carolina was Jimmy Carter in 1976. Clinton was the last Democrat to win West Virginia. He also broke the Democratic presidential drought in Kentucky with his wins in 1992 and 1996. While it's true that some of these states have Democratic governors and senators, this means little in a national election. The Democrats that win in these states are independent, self-reliant and conservative. They are the exact opposite of the Obama and even Clinton profile.

There's one more troubling note for Obama. The majority of voters overall and that includes a significant percentage of Clinton's backers think that Obama will eventually get the Democratic nomination they aren't exactly doing handstands at that prospect. More Obama backers say that they will be just as content if Clinton gets the nomination. Fewer Clinton backers say they'll be content if Obama gets the nomination.

Obama's Pennsylvania loss does not dampen his chance of eventually getting the Democratic nomination. But the voter demographics that stack up high against him dampen his chance of getting the White House.

Earl Ofari Hutchinson is an author and political analyst. His new book is The Ethnic Presidency: How Race Decides the Race to the White House (Middle Passage Press, February 2008).

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Comments

[KathyCorey]

Senator Obama cannot win the General Election, Enough people, now voting for Senator Clinton, will vote for Senator McCain. They will do this inspite of the economy and because they do not trust Senator Obama. They will vote for the American hero over a Senator who keeps company with Reverend Wright and William Ayers. They will vote for the American hero over a Senator who cannot answer tough questions in a debate. The Obama supporters who are whining about negative campaigning...should look to the North Carolina Republican party ads to see the future...not just for Obama but for Democrats who endorse him.

[JR49]

Poor Kathy...seems like you are just another Clintons victim if you think she will fight for you...HRC will fight for nobody just for herself as she always did. Wake up!!
Here something to read about :
Clearly, Hillary and her advisors have calculated that for a woman to be elected in this country, she"s got to come across as just as tough as the guys. And maybe they"re right. But so far, Hillary is not getting men with this strategy, and women feel written off. After the dark ages of this pugnacious administration, many of us want to let the light in. We want a break with the past, optimism, and a recommitment to the government caring about and serving the needs of everyday people. We want what feminism began to fight for 40 years ago"humanizing deeply patriarchal institutions. And, ironically, we see candidates like John Edwards or Barack Obama"men"offering just that. If Hillary Clinton wants to be the first female president, then maybe, just maybe, she should actually run as a woman

[pottery]

"We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard, because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills, because that challenge is one that we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one which we intend to win, and the others, too." - President John F. Kennedy

The glass is actually, still, half full.

[jungpatawan]

So poor dumb hicks with an over-developed belief in the second amendment and in their Invisible Super Friend all voted for Hillary? Yup, that about makes sense. Those are your new peeps, Ofay. You fit right in voting for the old, white woman poseur who wrapped the copious seat of her pantsuit around a barstool and drank Canadian liquor.

JP

[arthuride]

I am another "poor dumb hick" jungpatawan, who will vote for Hillary or anyone but McCain. Earl makes a strong point, as the youth vote will not vote for Obama, and the rest of us will vote against Obama because of his meaningless "feel good" politics and lack of experience, his ties to Wright and Ayer and Rizko and others, and his wife's tastelessness in stating she was never proud of the USA--which none of us "poor dumb hicks" will forget. If he is the unfortunate nominee of the Democratic Party not only will Obama lose, but most Democrats on any ballot. Obama is the defeat of the Democrats, and I have already spent $20,000 on a third party candidate, and will spend a lot more than that to make sure Obama does not disgrace the nation any more than he already has.

[JR49]

Well yes after reading your comment arthuride I have to agree with you. Your are "poor, dumb hick"

[YouThinkAndTalk]

Earl, stop blogging. You are waisting precious resources.

[katefranklin]

For all the Clinton Camp's cries about the delusions of Obama supporters, more of their supporters will defect to McCain for unnamed reasons. If any bloc of supporters are blindly devoted for reasons other than any kind of apparent principle or belief, it is clearly Clinton supporters. I'm convinced a good chunk of these voters would defect to David Duke if he was the GOP nominee; anything to spite that who defeated their beloved Hillary martyr.

[Gibbons]

It was not all race Earl many of those in Pennsylvania are hunters and Obama made the elitist comments about them turning to religion or guns' Obama seems to know a lot about Chicago and about people who shop at whole foods but he knows precious little about the white working man and armed with what little knowledge he has he tried to "explain" them to the billionaires who he admires greatly. He is probably against hunting as many people in his exalted wage bracket are but were it not for hunters most of us would never see a deer in the wild. There are racist in Pennsylvania as they are everywhere but the "solid south" is the only pace where it dominates the election. Hillary won back many of the Reagan democrats.

[nazcalito]

Slate's Hillary Deathwatch puts Hillary's chances at winning the nomination at 10.7 percent, up from 9.9 percent. I think that about sums it up. Slate's prediction is a lot more believable than Hutchinson's, a respected KPFA commentator who, based on his previous columns, seems to have taken a dislike to Barack Obama, I'm not sure why.

[devadasi]

Earl, you got it wrong baby. The video of Barack brushing off dirt, accompanied by JZ, was a hillarious, streetwise and hip metaphor. It spoke volumes in retaliation to all the cynics and to the liars and to the status quo of people like Hillary, McCain, Little George and Gibson. I think this video should be used in Obama's TV ads.

'Sticks and stones will break my bones but words will never harm me'.

If you think there was something low class or juvenile about the video then you are an elitist. Or have you lost touch with your roots? What's low class and obscene is the kitchen sink strategy and the lies and the smear perpetuated by the Clinton machine the McCain campaign.

I think the cancelled debate is a splendid and respectful decision. I'm sure Hillary is disappointed because she won't get a chance to play her 'gotcha game'. All future presidents running for office should agree not to do any debates unless it's sponsored by a group like the League of Women Voters, not some hack network.

[RickO]

Hillary faces the biggest demographic challenge of them all. Her party.

If she wins the pledged delegates and the nomination, she get my vote, fair and square. If Obama wins but Hillary is given the nomination as the result of some backroom deal, she doesn't get my vote. Period.

Despite the warnings that we must have a Dem in the Whitehouse (with which I agree), I will not vote for an illegitimate nominee who I already don't trust to start with.

[yomikey]

Being a full 7 months before the general, I won't give much credence to to your comment about Clinton voters not voting for Obama or vice versa. I'm a strong Obama supporter but certainly wouldn't contribute to another 4 or 8 years of McCain in the WH by staying home or voting repub. I have faith that my fellow dems feel the same, if not now, then certainly by November.

[arthuride]

yomikey--you are wrong. Real Democrats will vote against Obama.

[SamanthaJaneSalem]

The only question that matters is: how will Hillary Clinton supporters vote in the fall if Obama is the nominee? I doubt they will vote for a candidate who thinks more tax breaks for corporations and less regulation are the key to fixing the economy. I doubt they will vote for a continuation of the war in Iraq.

The problem with spin is that, while you may occasionally hit on the truth, you keep countering your own original spin with spin that contradicts it, going around and around in circles. The big state/little state spin, and old voters/young voters spin, and whites/blacks spin-- the truth is Obama can't beat *Hillary Clinton* consistently in a lot of big states, or among the old, the white, the blue collar. That says nothing about how he would do against a Republican whom even Republicans don't like.

Hillary Clinton has her own troubles-- an insurmountable deficit in the delegates, low cash and a stale message. If she can overcome those, then we'll talk. Otherwise, it's Obama vs. McCain, and those of you carrying Clinton's water can give your weary selves some rest.

[Tubby]

Hear, hear, Samantha!

[arthuride]

The youth vote (18-29) will not win Obama the presidency. We who are older will vote against him, as he is worse than McCain.

[YuryGetsin]

If there are any people that were not aware that Obama's being black was going to be a serious problem, please raise your hands now. You are all far stupider than you think. That's the whole point of "yes we can, " in that people will say "you can't get the guy with too much melanin and a terroristy name into the White House."

Vote Obama
We have obstacles to surmount; let's go surmounting.

[Gattamelata]

Another way of looking at the demographics was that it was a huge gain for Obama. He gained support in nearly every category. Courtesy of dailykos:

Obama's percent of the vote:
OH PA

60 and older 28 38
White 34 38
White men 39 44
White women 31 34
Less than $50K 42 46
No college 40 38
College 51 49
Catholic 36 31
Protestant 36 53

Kos goes on to point out that PA is much less demographically friendly to Obama's base, having far fewer black and young residents and far more seniors.

[grendl]

You know there's such a thing in delighting a little too much in the misfortunes of a fellow human being, and democrat,

You're right, though, race is a factor. This country doesn't appear ready to have a black man as president. ( anyone else on the horizon ) Congratulations on being right. It must feel good.

Funny, you would've thought as an African American you might show some admiration for what Barack Obama accomplished, in a nation that not fifty some off years ago relegated him to the back of the bus. Not saying he deserves the office, he might not.

But congratulations, it's truly big of you. And your sneering visage will always be a reminder of one of the reasons the white male GOP machine will continue to dominate American politics. Unity.