Hillary can not overtake Obama's pledged delegate support. She can't win enogh of her own and she won't be able to legitimately convince any of Obama's delegates into coming over to her side.
So, how is Hillary going to win this thing other than through superdelegate shenanigans? If she seriously takes that approach -- even while trailing in popular vote, trailing in the number of states won, and trailing in pledged delegates -- she is going to have a real backlash on her hands.
She assumes that all of Obama's voters would fall in line, but I don't believe that to be the case, particularly with black voters.
If Hillary steals the nomination and if McCain were smart, he would put a black person on the Republican ticket as V.P. That would really split the black vote, driving a lot of pissed off black voters away from the Democratic Party to sign up for the "new and improved" Republican party.
And a Democrat can't win without the black vote.
Way back in the beginning of this race, the media tried to play it as though there were going to be a problem with black voters voting for Barack. I knew that wasn't going to be the case, because black people would love to see a black president.
They just needed to know that he could win, and then they would come on board.
If Hillary steals the nomination, it's going to be seen as her stealing the election from a black man. If McCain puts Rice or Powell up there as V.P., then he could position the Republican party as moving beyond its racist past.
And it would work. Because there are a lot of black voters questioning their allegiance to the Democratic Party right now, who are pissed off at the Clintons and their race baiting, and who are very conservative in their leanings, anyway. The only reason the Democratic Party has held on to the black vote is because of loyalty to the civil rights movement and the historical need for the Republican Party to cater to white racists to win the South. If the Republicans cleaned up their act, so to speak, it would be very attractive to lots of black voters. We could see another historic swinging of party allegiance in this country.
It looks like McCain is already weighing these kinds of possibilities. He's asked North Carolina Republican party officials not to air an ad attacking Obama that features Rev. Jeremiah Wright.
Clinton would lose against even a semi-black-endorsed McCain. With Obama as the Democratic nominee, however, none of this is even on the table.
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Yeah yeah. McCain is shocked, SHOCKED! that such a scurrilous ad is being broadcast by others on his behalf.
Because she's going to "steal" the nomination. What about the Democrats stealing the elections from Florida and Michigan? Certainly without Hillary we can't win those two key states.
But rules are rules there, right? So, let's play by the rules. If she WINS the nomination with enough superdelegate support (which is allowable by the rules) then what? The rules would have failed both the blacks and the peoples of Michigan and Florida.
I don't know.
I find it very hard to believe that African Americans are going to throw out their policy principles whole cloth because McCain chooses a black running mate. This kind of thinking is unbelievable to me. While I can understand not voting for Clinton out of a sense of betrayal, I don't understand going for McCain just because he chooses a running mate according to skin color. I just don't believe people aren't that gullible. It's the policies that matter. Look at the reaction to Justice Thomas. Look at the reaction to Rice herself. McCain putting a neocon African American on the ticket would seem like the same old "do anything to get elected, use African Americans as election pawns" strategy.
Also, I'm not sure how to interpret McCain's "request" that the Wright ad not be aired. It's airing. So was he just covering his a**? If not, he doesn't seem to have much respect from the party. I'm very skeptical of McCain. He's an opportunist.
I can see people staying home. I can't see a large turnout for Condoleeza Rice.
Exactly, the media is always talking about how Obama is losing white voters by 5-15 points, but surely if Clinton can't win over black voters then she will lose almost every state outside of New England, as well as knackering the dems for decades to come.
Lonnee-I absolutely agree and that's why I'm of the belief that McCain would exploit what is would be an enduring spilt in the Democratic party. Nominating someone like Condalezza Rice could be his answer to both frustrated African-Americans if somehow HRC is able to steal this one. I'm wondering if women voters would also be attracted to a McCain/Rice ticket if Sen. Obama wins.
McCain won't be able to break away from the Bush legacy so he may just embrace it. Additionally, since HRC has slammed "activists" and her surrogates have dismissed young voters, I'm wondering just how many can hold their nose and and vote for her. There are some real issues of healing in the party.
If Clinton does not win what will be her role in bringing her diehard voters to vote Democrat? I can absolutely envision her sulking on the sidelines especially if she has 2012 in mind. Americans seem to have short memories, but nobody has forgotten what Nadar's campaign brought us...I think that anything other than a full effort on her part to work hard to have her "I won't vote for Barack" supporters come out to the polls will doom any aspirations for ANY leadership roles in the Democratic Party.
Thanks again Lonnee (my post too long, again). I've been tepid about a lot of my Democratic candidates and held my nose, but not this time. The primaries are over in my state and I'm not a delegate. I've got my voter registration form ready to change to Unaffiliated. By May 19th, I want the superdelegates to show some leadership and deliver the votes needed so that, when Obama wins Oregon on May 20th, we are done putting up with the Clintons' abuse of too many Democratic faithful to list.
May 21st is D-Day for McCain, and he will shake in his boots as he faces Obama and his volunteer army, or I'm done with the Dems. Only fools would wait until June. What absurdity, and Terry McAuliffe helped pass this ridiculous primary schedule -15 months for this filthy primary that's leaving more and more party faithful disgusted, and less than 5 months to beat McCain?! Get a grip, superdelegates, sheesh!
And after the most hopeful year for the Democratic Party in decades! What an astoundingly disappointing first woman candidate for President, thanks a lot, Hillary!
Great to see your work here Lonnee! Did our alternative media finally notice a certain lack of varying perspectives?
I've been astounded as the media keeps yakking about women for Hillary - completely ignoring the vast majority of black women, as well as black men, who will not vote for her now! Whenever I see/hear Hillary say "My election will be a historic moment for women" I'm thinking: not for we Latinas, since Hillary said we are too racist to vote for black candidates, and not for black women, whose work for and dreams of the historic moment of electing a black President and First Lady matter not to her. As for we black Latinos and Latinas, we don't fit into Hillary and Mark Penn's sliced and diced polling data.
I'm a 50 year old Latina, and my kids and I will never vote for another Clinton. I am so furious that she pitted Latinos against Blacks, Blacks against immigrants, that I wouldn't vote for Ms. Torture-Is-Sometimes-OK in 06 but not in 07 Clinton even if I were water-boarded , isolated, starved, frozen and beaten. I would vote for her only if they could torture my children, as our own government has done to alleged "terrorists". Obama proclaims "There will be no torture in an Obama Administration!" but Hillary says, "Well, now ...terrorists ... crisis ... torture ... no - yes -no! What do the polls say?"
Hillary getting her butt kicked by an inexperienced black freshman senator from Illinois and Hillary's super delegates have been leaving her to support Obama.
It pisses the Clintons off big time to be getting their butts kicked by someone who is as Hillary says "is not experienced enough."
This is Obama's first presidential campaign, this is the Clintons 4th presidential campaign and between them they have about 80 years in politics but they can't close the deal on the black freshman senator from Illinois.
The question should be why are the Clintons failing with all of their resources and experience?
Why should anyone vote for Hillary she can't even manage the finances of her campaign although she claims to be experienced enough to run the country. What a fairy tale.
If nothing puts sense into folk"s heads it should be the realization that the Clintons will appoint the same incompetent fools who have helped mismanage Hillary's campaign to positions in the government.
It will be like Bush/Cheney and their cronies all over again with Hillary and Bill telling more lies than Bush/Cheney could ever think of.
Bill, Hillary, Chelsea, Hugh Rodham and Mrs. Rodham why can't you all beat the canidate who you all claim is the least experienced? Why aren't you all bringing new voters to the democratic party? Why do you all suck? Bill and Hillary why do you both lie so much?
I'm curious. I don't see it happening - everyone saying they won't vote for her in the general if the election's stolen from Barack - especially African Americans. What's going to happen when he comes out and exhorts everyone to close ranks behind her - `reconciliation and redemption` which he's *already* saying *and* they stop and think about the consequences of McCain winning? McCain's so dogmatic about free market (non) solutions for healthcare. 40 million people still to be denied healthcare? What about the Corridor of Shame?
I feel I couldn't in any circumstances vote for Hillary. I think she is the pits. For so many reasons. I honestly envisage a Hillary presidency as another Nixonian one. Secretive, devious, lying, favouritism. Some of her attacks on Obama have been unforgiveable. (McCain would be a better Commander in Chief). To vote for her is implicitly to condone those attacks: she gets away with them. And her foreign policy 'culture' is so damned more of the same. And will the African Americans be prepared to vote for more of the same USA - ie two distinct countries: deserving affluent and the rest: the devil take the hindmost: they make their bed. Because that IS what the GOP stands for.
I don't know the answer: because I don't know how one could pull the lever for Hillary. Green? Nader? But one still comes back to it that that could well be a vote for no healthcare, no education.
Hamilton-I appreciate your plain-spoken approach and sound reasoning. I'm of the belief, not to the exclusion of anything you've said, to the proposition that Clinton inc. wants to either blackmail Obama into taking her as VP by threatening to extend the race...or...remotely could be thinking 2012 as her backend.
Great post, Lonnie. I only hope that the leaders of the Democratic Party listen to voices like yours and that they do it soon. Hillary Clinton's candidacy is rapidly becoming toxic to the party as a whole. This really shouldn't be too surprising, since her husband "triangulated" against his own party in the 90s, with disastrous results for congressional Democrats.
The Clintons clearly have no respect for AA voters. Bill denigrated their importance after the SC primary, and now both Clintons are acting as if only white voters matter. Thus, Obama's failure to win more white voters than Hillary is a "problem," while Hillary's atrocious showing among black voters is considered so insignificant that it's not even worthy of discussion.
Ms. Hamilton,
A lot of DLC democrats think you're bluffin'. They think Reagan democrats (ie. Republicans) are more important than the Democrats core constituencies (rich liberals, young liberals, and black liberals). They want Senator Obama to just step aside and become Hillary's driver or butler. Seriously.
Lonnie, I'm a fellow ORR member. I considered voting for Mrs. Clinton because we are both alums of seven sister colleges. Hillary is an alum of Wellesley and I'm an alum of Smith. It would do women's colleges a world of good if the first female President was a seven sister alum. But my sisters and I will have to wait. Hillary has told us a lot about herself by how she is running her campaign. Dishonesty, poor executive management, whining about the boys/MSM picking on her, an inability to convice her husband to "chill" on his inflammatory racial remarks and her half hearted apologies in words but not in her deeds, led me to believe I can't trust her to be our President. Rep. Clyburn made it clear that while he does not think the Clinton's are trying to damage Obama's electabilty, to give Hillary a chance in 2012, we see the truth. We know the Clinton's are trying to destroy Barack politically and personally. I also think they are "giving the finger" to the Democratic Party and Democrats who will be running in November. The Clinton's are saying "screw 'em" to all Democrats, even their supporters. Unless the superdegates end this nightmare quickly, the Dem nominee and Dem politicians, will be in trouble come November and for years to come. How could the Clinton's do this to us? Take note Republicans, Hillary has given you a golden opportunity. Will you use it or look the other way?
Very Good Post, Lonnie, as is your earlier post about Rush and his call for Riots. Keep your keen insight coming! It is very welcomed here.
I am an older white woman that stayed home rather than vote for Bill Clinton during his reelection. I cannot understand why people support that Clintons after the disgrace and embarrassment to our country during Bill's Presidency.
Earlier in the primary, I would have held my nose and voted for Hillary. If she steals the nomination, I am ready to protest in Colorado. There are many white people ready to fight for Obama.
Excellent article! Great points and well written. Thank you.
I think the Democratic Party may well have let this go to far. They have acted extremely irresponsibly. for weeks they have found it possible to sit silently be while all manner of thinly veiled racist remarks have been rained down on the African American community insulting not one but all of our churches (a distinction that only a few democrats have attempted to make) and a mischaracterization of all african Americans as unpatriotic unless proven otherwise which the Democrats have not attempted to combat. They may not recoup---even if Obama is the nominee. One lever voting may not be the rule of the day any longer.
It isn't just the blacks that would revolt, I'm white, middle aged woman, and I would too. I will not stand for a party that throws away the will of the people, especially for a man with the legislative success, inspirational talents, judgement, and willingness to serve the people and not the corporations.
I'm not sure I would go so far as voting for McCain, but so far, with Hillary not speaking out on the swift-boats, I'm thinking McCain has a little more integrity, even if it is just a publicity stunt. He's at least wise enough to know he should say something. Nada from Hillary.
The only way I will vote for Hillary is if she is able to win the popular vote and the delegates, a likely impossibility. If she plays by the rules, I'll be a team player, nose held all the way.
I'm so happy that Obama trounced her in PA! He lost, but she had to win by 20 points to make it viable, and she on won by 10! And, that was her firewall, her home state, her demographics.
If they steal this election from him, then they will only confirm the worst conspiratorial suspicions of African Americans. The Democratic Party must be aware that the fastest growing segement of registered Independents are African Americans under 30, and that trend will only continue if they steal this election. I for one will be telling the Democratic Party to kiss my black ass, and a whole lot more will be doing the same!
Yessir! If they allow Hillary to steal this nomination, that means they apporve of this divisive, mean-spirited, and bigoted campaign -- the Dems can kiss my dirty black ass. They will have proven themselves to be no different than the Republicans on their willingness to exploit the societal ills of bigotry for political gain.
The Clintons think they can just go up on the dias with someone like Charlie Rangel and blow smoke and a load of jive up our collective asses, and we just will forget about this, smile and be merry. No amount of black handouts will ever make up for the Democratic party allowing this to happen. NONE!
Color me black and count me in.
I am a white middle-aged woman and I am disgusted with the racist tactics of the Clintons during this campaign.
Earlier I had thought that if she somehow pulled this off and got the nomination, I would hold my nose and vote for her. After all, with McSame, we get the war for who knows how long.
But with her lies, will she get us out of Iraq? She already failed at health care reform back in 1993 - why should we believe that she would do better?
And since she has already threatened to nuke Iran in the last debate - how is she better than bomb bomb bomb Iran McSame?
No, if she steals the nomination, I think I will have to stay home.
Wow. I never thought about it that way. I don't think it's just a race thing though. All of the people I know who are Obama supporters who will not vote for Clinton are white, mostly Independents -lots of Democrats and Republicans too. So I think that black people just aren't voting for Obama becasue he is black- it's becsue he is what we need to save this country. He is offering to turn the keys to the White House over the people! Imagaine that? Who would be so crazy as to run a campaing and not take a dime from Special Interests and Federal Lobbyists? To actually be accountable to the people an NOT the special interests? That's why the GOP and HRC are out to destory him - they don't want to end the tax payer funded gravy train of greed and corruption. If any of you are stupid enough to vote for HRC don't complain to me when America is a third world country in 4 years- 'cause we are halfway there already. We must have a brilliant honest and genuine person who is ABOVE the sleazy games of politics as we know it. It's now or never folks! Getting back to your point- there is NO WAY Hillary can win in the general. It just could never happen and anybody who doesn't know that is just delusional. I'm not saying that Obama would 100% beat McCain but he has the best shot- she has a ZERO
Well, although I am not black, Lonnie, I feel the same exact way!!! I would NEVER, in a million years vote for Hillary Clinton, after all the DIRTY things she has pulled on Barack Obama during this primary election season!!! One doesn't have to be black to feel those same feelings, but I can understand that those feelings might be even more intense for black voters, because of some of Bill Clintons extremely racist remarks!!! If by some sheer act of political manipulation, she does become the nominee, I like many millions more Democrats, will resign from the Democratic Party of which I have been a member, for the past 47 years of my life, and I would vote for Ralph Nader in this presidential election. I would never rejoin the Democratic Party, because I would believe, and rightly so, that it has become contaminated beyond repair!!! Hillary and Bill Clinton have become what they had for so long faught, the disgusting politics of "hate!" They have internalized the "Tricky Dick," Lee Atwater, Karl Rove, and Bush Family way of attempting to "WIN AT ANY COST," and that is not what the Democratic Party (the PEOPLES' PARTY) is supposed to stand for!!!
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Posted April 23, 2008 | 07:30 PM (EST)