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Poll: Clinton Beats McCain In Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio

Quinnipiac   |   May 1, 2008 10:37 AM

Read More: Barack Obama John McCain, Clinton Florida, Clinton McCain Matchup, Clinton Ohio, Clinton Pennsylvania, Hillary Clinton John McCain, Obama McCain, Breaking Politics News
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Winning among white working class voters, New York Sen. Hillary Clinton holds strong leads over Arizona Sen. John McCain - and runs much better than Illinois Sen. Barack Obama - in three critical swing states, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to three simultaneous Quinnipiac University Swing State polls released today. If Sen. Obama is the Democratic nominee, he's in a tight race with McCain in Florida and Ohio, but takes Pennsylvania.

This is Sen. Clinton's strongest overall performance since the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University began special surveys two years ago in the three largest and most important swing states in the Electoral College. This latest survey finds:

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collapse ntmessage See Profile I'm a Fan of ntmessage

EC arithmetic. Hillary runs strongest in new swing states like OH,PA,NJ,AK,TN,FL,KYandWV (113EVs/270). Obama may bring in CO and IA (16EVs/270). Clinton has a Political advantage over Obama in FL/MI representing 16% of EC. This has not changed for MONTHS and Obama has spent almost a quarter of a BILLION dollars.

Content over style. Clinton performs and delivers. Obama simply could never equal the depth of Clinton when dealing with people already predisposed to their positions.

Just as the debates, she was straightforward with FOX and the longer the interview went on the better she looked. Mano a mano, you just see the excellence in Clinton. She must be the type of person you would want as President. No one can mess with her; she knows all the details and will not make stupid or rookie mistakes in the White House.

Scripted Obama turns mealy mouth in debates and takes forever to answer even the simplest question. His unending numbers of surrogates then scramble to correct his statements, often with absurd rationalizations. He is just not quick on his feet, which would be fine in any other job.

So very many issues and problems come up every day as President the country simply cannot afford on the job training for Obama, whether it is foreign policy, the economy, health care or defense. The list goes on.

What in the heck are we thinking that Obama is even a shadow of Clinton.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 09:15 AM on 05/02/2008
collapse Justtellthetruth See Profile I'm a Fan of Justtellthetruth

refresher course;

1) she voted for and supported the war in Iraq

2) She virtually campaigned for the war against Lebanon, even after it was clear that it, like Iraq, was a pointless bloodbath

3) She has worked hard to start a war with Iran, calling them the greatest threat that the US and israel face, voting for kyl lieberman, and now claiming that she would "completely Obliterate them" .

4) her botched attempt at health care reform as first lady was so politically inept and so poorly planned that it offended the vast majority of members of both parties, and set back health care reform for decades, denying 100s of millions of americans affordable and available health care.

5) She is DESPISED by the majority of the people of this nation. She is not likable or trustworthy in most peoples eyes, nor is she considered competent.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 12:15 PM on 05/02/2008
collapse AdamX See Profile I'm a Fan of AdamX

Neocons want her to win. It is their only chance.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 10:19 PM on 05/01/2008
collapse Justtellthetruth See Profile I'm a Fan of Justtellthetruth

Does she have the power to completely obliterate the US as well if we don't give in to her looney demands, such as allowing her to be President even when most people in this country literally can't even stand the sight of her?

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 12:59 AM on 05/02/2008
collapse V4Vigilance See Profile I'm a Fan of V4Vigilance

Hey, if the nomination were decided by opinion polls we wouldn't have to deal with any of this messy "voting" and "delegate" crap! We all know how precisely polls predict the future. They're immune to manipulation and every one of them yields the same results, right?

Oh yeah, and the BCS is the best way to determine NCAA Div. I football national champion.

/snark off

Nothing to see here folks. Just another steaming pile of Clintonista "I'm losing but you should crown me the nominee anyway" BS.

OBAMA 08

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 05:50 PM on 05/01/2008
collapse Kantinflas See Profile I'm a Fan of Kantinflas

-- This year, the so-called "battleground" states which could go either way in the general election appear to be: CO, FL, IA, MI, MO, MN, NH, NM, NV, OH, PA, VA, WI. A total of 159 electoral votes.
-- RealClearPolitics (Election 2008 Latest Polls) lists head-to-head matchups, McCain-Clinton and McCain-Obama, for all the battleground states. Aggregately, the most recent state polls for each pair of match-ups through May 1 indicate Clinton would lose to McCain by 3 electoral votes overall. Obama would lose by 59.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 03:47 PM on 05/01/2008
collapse ropadopa See Profile I'm a Fan of ropadopa

Did you figure these to be the battle-ground states all by yourself or did someone suggest them to you? Don't forget that if this was the Republican Nomination Hillary would be winning too. And further if it was only by ballot and not caucus in some states she would be winning too. Oh! I forgot if Michigan and Florida had voted she would also be leading. And if we were in Cuba where the party's leadership puts one person and it was a yeah or nay vote she would be that person and she would be willing too. Never in my life have I seen so many hypotheticals, spins and permutations. The rules under which the candidates entered the race was determined at the outset. All parties agreed to them. This is still a democracy and we play by the rules.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 11:32 PM on 05/01/2008
collapse ntmessage See Profile I'm a Fan of ntmessage

We predicted the same months ago with a behavior based model and Kantinflas is largely accurate regarding battleground states so who cares where it comes from if it is accurate?
You can check my old posts.

In fact, our model now has distance growing between Clinton and McCain while Obama is going the other way. Obama peaked on Super Tuesday and has been trending down ever since, presumable as people get to know him better, confirming another one of our predictions that Clinton negatives are built in and would have little affect on whether people would vote for her while Obamas negatives can only grow worse.

There is not a prediction yet that Clinton definitely wins over McCain, BUT she runs much stronger than Obama, who is clearly the weaker candidate based upon empirical analysis and not wishful thinking. Or Hope for that matter (sorry couldnt resist).

Today we have Clinton with over 300 EVs against McCain while McCain already has more than 270 against Obama. 270 clinches the next President of the United States.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 09:27 AM on 05/02/2008
collapse mntnguy See Profile I'm a Fan of mntnguy

Everyone! Google Paul vs Clinton and hold on to your shirt with what you read!! I can not believe this is being hidden so well by the media and Clinton supporters claim she has a chance of winning once she is convicted in this case that she is apparently guilty of along with Gov Ed Randell and Former Pres Clinton. This will all be over soon! I know the superdelegates are watching this!

P.S. all Obama supporter should start talking about this in every post maybe the media will get the idea ! let the truth be told!

Go Obama 08 Yes We Can!!!!

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 04:58 PM on 05/01/2008
collapse Bill3rdterm See Profile I'm a Fan of Bill3rdterm

mntnguy, you do realize that this story has been investigated over a year ago. The reason the MSM is not covering it, is because they know there is no THERE there. It's a civil case, that doesn't have legs. Go to fact checker and do some homework outside of the conspiracy sites.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 05:04 PM on 05/01/2008
collapse NewMexicoForObama See Profile I'm a Fan of NewMexicoForObama

Anyone who blindly follows a liar is considered a chump. Are you a chump?

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 06:27 PM on 05/01/2008
collapse ntmessage See Profile I'm a Fan of ntmessage

Well it looks like Obama lied about the Pastor and Selma.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 09:30 AM on 05/02/2008
collapse NewMexicoForObama See Profile I'm a Fan of NewMexicoForObama

Exactly what did he lie about. Be a little more specific please.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 10:09 AM on 05/02/2008
collapse Soundofthunder See Profile I'm a Fan of Soundofthunder

The reason she "polls" better in those states is because the choice is between her and Obama vs. McCain. When it down to JUST Obama vs. McCain, Obama will have the lead in all three states. The poll we should be looking at is the national poll at asked who would vote for in a race between Democrat (Obama or Hillary) vs. Republican (McCain):

51% Democratic
33% Republican
16% Undecided

It's reasonable to assume that the undecided vote will be split more or less between the two. But to be nice to McCain, I'll give him 70% of it. That's 44.2 for McCain, 55.8 for Obama/Hillary, or what I like to call a LANDSLIDE for the Democrats.

The numbers don't lie. Americans are SICK of Republican rule. Like a battered wife, they finally get it: the GOP doesn't love or respect you, it wants you to suffer.

SOT

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 03:38 PM on 05/01/2008
collapse Bill3rdterm See Profile I'm a Fan of Bill3rdterm

Wow nice spin job. They are not polled as having to choice between OBama or HRC against McCain. The polls are done HRC vs. McCain and BO vs. McCain.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 05:06 PM on 05/01/2008
collapse NewMexicoForObama See Profile I'm a Fan of NewMexicoForObama

Anyone who blindly follows a liar is considered a chump. Are you a chump?

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 06:27 PM on 05/01/2008
collapse AbbieXHoffman See Profile I'm a Fan of AbbieXHoffman

Guys this is pretty compelling reason for Hillary to get the nomination. But let's exand the reasoning beyond these states. If you want to see how both candidates do in GE of all the states based on electoral votes (not just pop vote), the math is available. Check this out. I like Obama and if the democrats are okay with a risk, then I say put him in. If they are not, I understand their reasoning why they would choose Clinton.

Clinton 291 McCain 247
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Clinton/Maps/May01.html

Obama 243 McCain 269 Ties 26
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/May01.html

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 03:14 PM on 05/01/2008
collapse mntnguy See Profile I'm a Fan of mntnguy

Everyone! Google Paul vs Clinton and hold on to your shirt with what you read!! I can not believe this is being hidden so well by the media and Clinton supporters claim she has a chance of winning once she is convicted in this case that she is apparently guilty of along with Gov Ed Randell and Former Pres Clinton. This will all be over soon! I know the superdelegates are watching this!

P.S. all Obama supporter should start talking about this in every post maybe the media will get the idea ! let the truth be told!

Go Obama 08 Yes We Can!!!!

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 04:58 PM on 05/01/2008
collapse Bill3rdterm See Profile I'm a Fan of Bill3rdterm

Can we get a Mod. to ban this idiot mntnguy. IT's one thing to want to talk about the bogus paul vs clinton story, but to continue to copy and paste the same thing 15 times in every thread is doing nothing but cluttering the board. Dude chill already you look like an idiot.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 05:45 PM on 05/01/2008
collapse NewMexicoForObama See Profile I'm a Fan of NewMexicoForObama

Anyone who blindly follows a liar is considered a chump. Are you a chump?

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 06:28 PM on 05/01/2008
collapse oldrwsr See Profile I'm a Fan of oldrwsr

It is much too early to be taking General Election polls. Alot can happen in 6 months.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 04:35 PM on 05/01/2008
collapse FrankBlackFrancis See Profile I'm a Fan of FrankBlackFrancis

I don't find it compelling because it fails to take into account important factors.
1.if Hillary gains the nomination these numbers will decline. There will be a perception it was stolen, it will alienate many new Democrats that won't come out in November.
2. Hillary hasn't been attacked by the right wing machine yet. She's actually been embraced by it because they desire to run against her.
3.Obama will be much more effective when Hillary stops attacking him and he can focus on McCain.

Obama won the pledged delgate count, if he's not th nominee there is no way the party will recover in time. I'll vote for her, but many other Obama supporters probably won't. I know the opposite is also true but I believe Obama will be able to overcome that.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 03:48 PM on 05/01/2008
collapse AbbieXHoffman See Profile I'm a Fan of AbbieXHoffman

1. These numbers are based on poll of people would actually vote.
2. I disagree--Hillary has been vetted more than any other candidate running.
3. The repubs will be much more brutal on Obama than Hillary be assured. And Hillary has been benign compared to historical other primaries (bar the Kerry failure). JFK was the most ruthless primary campaigner. He was just BRUTAL. Obama will have more to fight against to McCain, so he won't be more effective. He'll likely be less effective or the same as he is now.

If they give the nod to Hillary, the party will recover in time. It always happens. JFK and Johnson kissed and made up and went right into the Whitehouse.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 04:09 PM on 05/01/2008
collapse FrankBlackFrancis See Profile I'm a Fan of FrankBlackFrancis

1.People who vote right now based on current circumstances that will no doubt change in the next 6 months.
2.Hillary has been vetted. And when the right wing smear machine kicks into high gear we are going to revisit every scandal of the 90s. As well as new vetting. There is a reason why the right wing is not attacking her now, they want her to be th enominee so they can smear her again. She is apolorazing figure that Republicans love to rally against. She simply can't overcome this.
3. Obama has less baggage and handles controversy well. Despite claims to the contrary, many of the scandals that have arisen, Barack has beat back with only a small loss in the polls against Hillary. He'll be just fine.
4.The party won't recover for several years. The circumstances aren't exactly the same as th 68 convention in Chicago but a fight at the convention, which is what Hillary would need to do, will split the party. Hillary Clinton's divisive nature has now alienated a good chunk of loyal Democrats like myself. I'm not the fringe left, there are many more like me who feel this way whether you choose to believe it or not.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 04:47 PM on 05/01/2008
collapse Bill3rdterm See Profile I'm a Fan of Bill3rdterm

Dude, that's a Right wing started myth that the Repubs want HRC because they will rally against her. Give me a break. You act as though the Repubs will stay home if the most liberal senator in the country is the nominee. BIll Clinton left office with a 67% approval rating from all parties. Granted she is a little more liberal, then him, but she is still more moderate. She can win independant and Reagon democrats, not too mention disgruntled MOderate Repubs. They want OBama, believe me, especially now. The reason they aren't attacking her, is because they know it's going to be OBama because Dem's are a bunch of pussies who will give it to OBama if he has the delegate lead. Helping her stay alive, only makes him weaker for the general. He's toast. and it will all be about over when McCain announces his VP nominee.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 05:13 PM on 05/01/2008
collapse Hillbug See Profile I'm a Fan of Hillbug

Dems are "pussies" if they give it to Obama if he has the delegate lead?

Um...having the delegate lead means that, you know, you're winning.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 06:43 PM on 05/01/2008
collapse austinobserver See Profile I'm a Fan of austinobserver

It's all a bad joke. If Hillary gets the nomination, the corporate media will pivot and begin 24/7 bashing of her based on allegations of and speculation of marital infidelities and financial improprieties of her and her husband. There is no way on earth she would carry Florida, Michigan, or Pennsylvania, even if McCain announced beforehand he intended to cause a depression and WWIII. She would be lucky to carry Massachusetts and New York as McCain would win a landslide victory of historic proportions. Then he probably does start WWIII and the members of the corporate media will be among the most surprised dead people in our completely "obliterated" nation.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 02:56 PM on 05/01/2008
collapse Bill3rdterm See Profile I'm a Fan of Bill3rdterm

Yeah there allegations worked so well in the 90's. Bill walked with a 67% approval rating. Also, they can't touch the infidelaty, considering she wasn't the one cheating and she's the nominee, not too mention that script can be flipped on McCain. He cheated on his first wife for years, and left the sick woman for Cindy. Financial Improprieties, LOL, Keatings 5, not too mention more. His ammo is worthless against HRC. And unlike Obama, she wouldn't hesitate to go after him if he dared go for a low blow...

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 05:16 PM on 05/01/2008
collapse Vantunow See Profile I'm a Fan of Vantunow

I am glad he is improving in Swing States Matchup despite Pastorgate.

Some of the Indiana polls are completely ridiculous. In Pennsylvania which is taylor made state for Hillary, despite Elitist-Gate and Wright-Gate and Bowling-Gate, she only managed 9.6% win.

Here in Indiana, where Obama has neighborhood-card going for him, and only a week ago he was up as high as 5% in some polls, all of a sudden he is down by 10%? 15% of the voters changed their mind based on insane rantings of Jeremiah Wright?

I can't imagine those numbers would hold up on Election day. If in State like Pennsylvania where she even claimed it to be her home-state, she couldn't win by 10%, its ridiculous to suggest in Indiana she would be able to win in double digits.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 02:49 PM on 05/01/2008
collapse mntnguy See Profile I'm a Fan of mntnguy

Everyone! Google Paul vs Clinton and hold on to your shirt with what you read!! I can not believe this is being hidden so well by the media and Clinton supporters claim she has a chance of winning once she is convicted in this case that she is apparently guilty of along with Gov Ed Randell and Former Pres Clinton. This will all be over soon! I know the superdelegates are watching this!

P.S. all Obama supporter should start talking about this in every post maybe the media will get the idea ! let the truth be told!

Go Obama 08 Yes We Can!!!!

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 05:04 PM on 05/01/2008
collapse flyguy14222 See Profile I'm a Fan of flyguy14222

NC is Obama's PA. Where did HIS 25pt lead go?

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 02:55 PM on 05/01/2008
collapse rmetz74 See Profile I'm a Fan of rmetz74

So you predict he'll win NC by at least 9 points?

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 02:58 PM on 05/01/2008
collapse AbbieXHoffman See Profile I'm a Fan of AbbieXHoffman

According to this, it's a dead tie between Obama and McCain in NC.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/May01.html

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 03:16 PM on 05/01/2008
collapse FrankBlackFrancis See Profile I'm a Fan of FrankBlackFrancis

Get back to me with this poll in 6 months.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 04:48 PM on 05/01/2008
collapse rmetz74 See Profile I'm a Fan of rmetz74

So Obama and McCain are tied in a race Obama hasn't even started campaigning in yet.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 03:49 PM on 05/01/2008
collapse Mygirl See Profile I'm a Fan of Mygirl

I am sick of Hillary's stupid math.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 02:47 PM on 05/01/2008