Why Obama Provides a More Compelling Contrast to McCain than Hillary

Barack Obama will provide a far more compelling contrast with John McCain in the fall election than will his rival for the nomination, Hillary Clinton. Here's why:

The polling shows that McCain is currently running substantially ahead of a "generic" Republican candidate in the fall match-up for president. Voters are considerably more favorable to McCain than to a standard-issue Republican.

To guarantee victory in November, Democrats not only need to provide a compelling, hopeful vision for the future. Just as important, we need to undermine that favorable impression of McCain.

In any political campaign, undermining the other candidate's "favorables" involves two tasks. First, you have to drive home his negatives. Second, you have to neutralize his positives.

McCain's strongest negative is his close association with the policies of the widely-reviled George Bush and the gang that brought us the Iraq W\war and economic stagnation. In fact, McCain's foreign and economic policies are virtually indistinguishable from those of Bush. When there's a difference, McCain's policies are Bush-on-steroids.

Our first task is to prove to swing voters that a vote for McCain is a vote for a Bush third term. Over and over we need to demonstrate why "if you liked Bush, you'll love McCain."

Our second problem is just as important. McCain's greatest positive is that many voters believe he is a pragmatic, independent, straight-talking maverick. We need to neutralize this positive with the truth: in fact, McCain is no straight-talker - he will say anything to win.

This is different from trying to convince the voters that McCain is a "flip-flopper." That's what Republicans did to Kerry and it implies that the candidate has no core beliefs.

We won't succeed in convincing voters that McCain is a "flip flopper" with no core beliefs - mostly because he does have core beliefs. He truly does support the core principles of Bush radical conservatism. He believes in a law-of-the-jungle economy. He doesn't think we're all in this together, but rather that we're all in this alone. He believes in the Neo-Con foreign policy of unilateral, preemptive war. He believes in trickle-down economics. He believes that the gang of special interest lobbyists that run his campaign have every right to run Washington.

McCain isn't a "flip-flopper." He sticks with his core principles. But he's perfectly willing to lie about where he stands and what he believes to secure victory. He'll say or do pretty much anything to win.

You don't need to look further than the 180 degree turn McCain made when it came to the late Jerry Falwell and the religious right. He denounced them as intolerant in 2000 when they sided against him with Bush. Yet he snuggled right up to them in 2008 when it served his purposes to get the Republican nomination.

Barack Obama is far better equipped that Hillary Clinton to project and inspiring vision of the future. But he is also better suited to credibly undercut McCain's unfavorables by driving home McCain's negative connection with Bush's policies and philosophy and neutralizing his positive "straight talker" image.

Obama's long-term unequivocal opposition to the Iraq War and his call for fundamental change in American foreign policy are far more compelling contrasts than Clinton's early support of the War and her talk of "obliterating" Iran.

Obama can credibly argue that he will lead a movement among voters to change the way things are done in Bush's Washington - to challenge the special interests - to pass universal health care - and to end unfair trade policies and trickle-down economics. Clinton is saddled by the Clinton administration's passage of NAFTA and other job-killing trade deals; her failure to pass universal health care; all of the conflicts and polarization of the 1990's; and her connection with lobbyist- consultants like former Chief Strategist Marc Penn.

The Obama candidacy offers the contrast of a 46-year-old African-American who overcame enormous odds to challenge the status quo and a 72-year-old-Washington insider whose family is worth $100 million and owns nine homes. McCain embodies the past and the status quo. Obama embodies change and the future.

The contrast with Obama is even more critical when it comes to convincing the voters that McCain will say anything to be elected.

I talked recently to Bryant Sipes from the small town of Alsey, Illinois. Sipes is a corrections officer and ardent hunter. He's also a strong Obama supporter. He called me from the truck to which he had retreated in a rainstorm that had interrupted his turkey hunting. I asked Sipes why he supported Obama.

"Simple," he said. "He tells you the truth. I'm sick of all of the politicians who will tell you anything to win, like Hillary Clinton and John McCain."

Whether or not it's entirely justified, most Americans believe that the Clintons will themselves say pretty much anything to win. Remember that many thought of Bill as "Slick Willie." The Clinton-McCain "gas tax holiday" is a good example. Economists say that most of this "tax break" would actually go to the oil companies who would have no incentive to lower gas prices and pass it along to consumers in the tight summer driving season. At the same time it would cost the Highway Trust Fund $9 billion -- which translates to about 300,000 lost construction jobs. No matter, it sounds good on the stump and at first blush it polls well.

Whatever else you think about Obama, he believes that if you tell the voters the truth, they have the intelligence to make the right decisions.

Obama can credibly make the case that McCain is no straight-shooter at all. Hillary would have a very tough time making that case stick.

Once the primaries are over and voters focus directly on the contrast between the two general election candidates, there is little question that Barack Obama will offer Americans the most inspiring, progressive vision for the future. But he will also provide the contrast that can convince swing voters that John McCain isn't who they think he is.

Robert Creamer is a long time political organizer and strategist and author of the recent book: Stand Up Straight. How Progressives Can Win, available on amazon.com