Israeli Elections: Do They Really Matter?

Emma Goldman, the Russian anarchist famously quipped that if elections really changed anything, they'd be illegal.

I couldn't help think about Goldman as I contemplate the outcome of Israel's elections. This electoral moment--unlike previous election contests--has a strangely anti-climactic character. These elections came up quickly, there were no debates, they were overshadowed by events in Gaza, a global economic crisis, and possibly by an even more consequential election--Barack Obama's as America's 44th President.

My sense is that the lack of anticipation and breathless build-up to the February 10th election reflects two more important realities. The first is an Israeli leadership deficit widely acknowledged by most Israeli polls. As the founding fathers of the Israeli state part from the scene (the only two left are Sharon who lies in a coma and Shimon Peres, the animated octogenarian President of the country), Israel has been led in recent years by a younger generation of much less experienced and skilled Prime Ministers (Barak, Netanyahu, and Olmert) who have stumbled badly in matters of peace and war.

It is an arguable proposition but it is eminently fair to ask whether any Israeli leader now has the historic legitimacy, moral authority, and power to make the tough choices and overcome the challenges Israel faces on peace and security. Frankly, neither the military nor political strategies pursued by Israel in its two most recent military conflicts (Lebanon, 2006; Gaza, 2008/2009) inspire all that much confidence.

Second, despite the personal and political differences between the two leading candidates--Livni and Netanyahu, the policy approaches (given the problems Israel confronts and the narrow choices flowing from them) don't suggest all that much variance. Indeed the need to forge a stable coalition, not dependent on smaller or larger right-wing parties may well push in the direction of a more centrist unity government based on consensus.

On Iran, regardless of who wins, the next Israeli Prime Minister will make stopping Tehran's acquisition of a nuclear weapon his or her top priority. Netanyahu may be more suspicious of diplomacy, but both candidates will first support sanctions and contacts (orchestrated by Washington) as necessary steps in trying to block Iran. When and if that approach fails, the next Prime Minister will consider military action. And President Obama will find a determined and forceful Israeli approach on Iran, pressing America to either acquiesce, support, or help participate in a military attack.

On the peace process, there's no doubt that a Prime Minister Livni having invested more in the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations will try to ply those waters once again. Netanyahu won't. But sooner or later both may come to accept that there are no conflict-ending solutions there. And so, the next Israeli Prime Minister will be drawn north towards the prospect of an Israeli-Syrian accord--a direction the Obama administration may also take.

Electing Netanyahu may mean more humps in the US-Israeli relationship, but no major rifts. In the end, regardless of who wins, Obama's domestic priorities, bad peace process options, and Israel's inherent caution are unlikely to generate--save for a possible Israeli-Iranian confrontation--any wild surprises in the US-Israeli relationship or quick, easy breakthroughs in the peace process. The fact is Israel, as well as the United States, face imperfect options in a complex, angry, and dysfunctional Middle East which are likely to produce imperfect outcomes. And whoever is elected as the next Israeli Prime Minister will have a hard time changing that.

Comments

[thruthseeker]

Israel is the national home, the spiritual dwelling, and the foundation for the liberty of the Jewish people

[RonMar]

Seeker, that it is, and Israeli Jews are much different from American Jews. American Jews voted in the 70% range for Obama. Israeli Jews were challenging me as early as 2006 on my sixth visit there since 2004 as well as to nearby countries about why any American would vote for Obama.
Their questions to me and their incredulity increased in 2007 and 2008, especially after it was clear Obama was the Democrat candidate. Then the astonishment of the Israeli jews peaked when Obama was elected. They are chagrined that some 70% of their American cousins voted for him.
Muslims are astounded too. Even an Iranian cleric said since January 20, "Shame on Obama and all who voted for him."
Muslim leaders have taken advantage, however, of Obama's more recent overtures to them, e.g., his letter to Iran's Ahmadinejad and first television interview as President on Arab TV. Amazingly Libya's Qadafi beaten down by Reagan and Bush to the point of staying relatively quiet and handing over his nuclear materials is now head of an African coalition and aspires to become President of the United States of Africa. Qadafi did say in a published speech before the election that Obama was a Muslim.
I was thinking not, only that Obama is much influenced by his birth to a Kenyan Muslim father and upbringing in Indonesia by a Muslim stepfather. Obama has written about that in his books and spoken in other forums including on Arab TV.

[bodan1]

I agree that these elections dont matter much to us. The Israelis are not going to change their tactics. They are going to continue with the starvation and eradication of the Palestinian people. They will continue to build and populate settlements,which are the main obstacle to any peace process. They will continue using American Mid-Western Native tactics-(keep starving them and diverting water so crops cant grow,continue to make life harder and harder so they either die or just move outward to Egypt or Jordan.
I believe it is so sad that a country that was established after one of the worst wars mankind will ever know. Where atrocities where committed on Gypsies,Je­ws,Muslims ,Gays,Russians etc... That the tactics used by the Israelis are identical to those used by Nazis and all oppressive regimes. When will people stop using religion and belief as a justification for murder??

[RonMar]

Bodan you seriously need to learn a lot before venturing your half-vast, unsupported opinions here or anywhere else. Almost all that you say is exactly the opposite of truth, facts and real history. If you wish you may join me on my ninth trip with relatively lengthy stays in Israel, Jordan, Egypt, visits to the West Bank and the border areas with Lebanon and Syria. We are planning to go again next year, if not later this year. We may do a Christmas trip to Bethlehem, which as you may know is in Palestinian Authority-­controlled West Bank territory. If so we will be guests of one of my several Arab, Muslim, Palestinian friends.

[northstar11]

see TPM

in MEDIA SECTION

[Freenation]

"These elections came up quickly, there were no debates, they were overshadowed by events in Gaza, a global economic crisis, and possibly by an even more consequential election--Barack Obama's as America's 44th President."

The last sentence sums up the overall article..Obama is not going to be Bush who was hounded by neocons from American Enterprise Institute...Obama has some AIPAC sympathizers in his team but so far he has show a balanced (correct) approach unlike Bush who gave Isreali politicians blank check...

Obama can and he will reign Bibi's adventure quests if he wins the election...who ever wins the election should expect change of stance from Washington...on a side note Kristol is out of NYTIMES..Neocons are hiding now...and some are even changing teams...

[S1m0n]

Bluntly put, Israel and its leaders have come to the bleief that the price of peace is higher than it's value: for all the hype, Hamas's rockets don't do much if any damage, so it's not worth giving up any land to end them. Israel needs the land (& more importantly the water) more than it needs the peace.

[RonMar]

This writer is right. Israel's elections matter little. The Israelis will not allow an elected leader permit Iran to gain nuclear weapon capability or to sell out the national defense of Israel and all the people - Jews, Muslims and others - who live there to Islamic jihadists. They cannot allow those things to happen since to do so would be suicidal and exceed the loss of lives in the WWII Holocaust of Jews and others, wiping out about half of the world's remaining Jews.

[radbam]

A commentator once quipped that the current moment of Israeli politicians is the Age of Pygmies. The current situation is an apt example. There are key differences between Livni and Netanyahu....not the least of which is the this cycle, Bibi has sold his soul irrevocably to the hard right. I'm depressed.

Daniel Weiner
www.goodgodforus.com

[SonnyBono]

The other difference is that Bibi is as corrupt as Olmert but with much better press relations. But there really are no differences between the two major candidates - regardless of who emerges as Prime Minister, they will continue the oppression of the Palestinians and the situation in the region will continue unless the US starts to act as a real honest broker not just another mouthpiece for the Israeli government.

[derWahrheit]

You fail to note that Bibi speaks English with a New York City accent. As an American, I am depressed.

[polaris12]

No it doesn't matter who wins. Israel has followed the same ruthless occupation policies for the last 60 years, regardless of who was in power.

[messy]

->Sixty

[betz55]

The election of Bibi will solidify the world against apartheid Israel, he is using the euphmism 'natural growth as the tactic to expand the settlements.

Israel’s illegal settlements in the occupied territories violates over 30 UN Security Council resolutions since 1968. It's all about 'security' for Israel ? Total BS. The Palestinians have the same right to 'security' from apartheid, belligerent, aggressive Israel too. The Palestinians aren't bulldozing anyones houses, the Israeli's are.

Cut the billions of dollars we give Israel each year, we need the money here at home, not financing 'security' of our biggest welfare client, Israel..

I will be proud of the day when Obama puts the interest of America before the interest of Israel and not be crucified for it. It's a damn shame that American politicians are selected, not on their commitment to the best interests of America, but by vowing to put the interests of a foreign nation, Israel, first. The oath of allegiance that I said everyday in school was not to Israel, or any country but America.

Tie all aid directly to the end of the illegal settlements end the "natural growth" tactic which Bibi will use to increase the number of settlers in the West Bank.

Did Congress ever ask us if we want our money given away to Israel? Why don't we put it to a vote?

[Hedonist]

You fail, unsurprisingly, to mention that those U.N.S.C. Resolutions place obligations on BOTH sides in the conflict yet it is only Israel's violations which you consider important. What hypocrisy. What nonsense.

[SonnyBono]

The latest military action in Gaza killed over 1,300 Palestinians - approximately half of which were women and CHILDREN and 13 Israelis - ten soldiers and three civilians. During the Israeli invasion of Lebanon, the numbers were approximately the same.

By the way, you mention UN Security Council resolutions not UN General Assembly resolutions which Israel ignores and we both know that no Security Council resolution can pass without US support. As an American (I assume you are an American), aren't you just a little bit tired of having our foreign policy in the Middle East dictated by the Israelis? I mean for all the money we give them, you would think that they would let us make a few decisions on this subject without having them "wagging the dog" each and every time.

[bodan1]

Congress does not care what we want! They care whether AIPAC will pay for their campaigns. Or will AIPAC use their media interests to slander them so they cant win.
Our politicians our cowards,all they care about is re-election,and whether or not their friends pockets are lined. We must stop groups like AIPAC that have no interest in American ideals for Americans.
They are a lobbying group with foreign interests. If a congressman was to take a dime from any Arab group outside of the Saudis they would be labeled a sympathizer,and never elected again.
The impact that a group like AIPAC has on our government should be made illegal. Why did Presidential candidates have to bow down and pray to AIPAC before elections. It is not because they have such a high population volume that they could sway the election,it is because of the media influence by its members( Bloomberg-Murdoch). Our V-P Mr. Biden has recieved more money from AIPAC than anyone in Congress or the Senate. What kind of fair conclusions can come from this?
WE MUST STOP AIPAC AND GROUPS LIKE THEM FROM CONTROLLING OUR GOVERNMENT!
It has gone on far to long.

[betz55]

I second that whole heartedly !

[dgscol]

I would assume, no matter what, there will be more suspicion placed on the swartze administration, possibly more deceit, maybe more war.

[Fein]

"but no major rifts."

Yeah, well let's see what we can do about that.

It's more than time for the 'special' relationship that empowers Israel's crime against humanity to end.

[shakermaker]

You're right, no matter who wins the election, Israel will continue its policy of apartheid against the palestinians

[BubbaC33]

There is no such policy in Israel.
But I notice those demanding that Israel give back the West Bank are demanding that Jews move from the territoy. IN other words, Arbas are to be allowed to live anywhere, but Jews are to be restricted. Hypocrites.

[cinesimon]

In other words: you don't have a clue what Apartheid means.

[derWahrheit]

The land upon which Israel resides was once Palestine, andArab nation. By murder, terror and the manipulation of England, France and the U.S., the Palestinians were driven from their homes - many of which today are still occupied by Israelis.

[TheFriendlyAtheist]

Well yeah, Israel has no right to another peoples land and they should get off of it. As a matter of fact, being that the Jews owned just 6% of the land of Palestine at the time of partition, and that all land gained by them since then has been gained through murder, theft, and ethnic cleansing, by any concept of justice they should be made to return all land that they have taken since then.