Having written my fair share of speeches for secretaries of state and contributed to presidential ones, I'd love to hear President Obama give the following speech tomorrow night.
My fellow Americans. I want to speak to you tonight honestly and
directly about an issue of great importance.
America is a great country; but we are currently stuck in the Middle
East like some kind of modern day Gulliver tied up by tiny tribes whose
interests are often not our own, and by our own illusions of power,
which have often gotten us into trouble in this part of the world. Our
dilemma is clear: we are bogged down in a volatile region, which is
critical to our national interests, but we can't fix it nor can we walk
away.
And these commitments come at a time when we can least afford it. Our
economic recovery is fragile; our future is clouded by too much debt;
too much dependence on hydro-carbons and not enough political will in
either major party to begin to take steps to make matters right.
At present, we are involved in three wars -- the first since our own war
of independence fought by an all volunteer army -- where victory is
measured not by can we win; but by when can we leave. Extrication -- how
to get out -- is an appropriate theme for these conflicts because it's
highly arguable whether it was wise to get into them (Afghanistan, Iraq,
Libya) and stay with them as we did in the first place.
Two were my predecessor's wars; but I now own two as well. I said during
my campaign for the presidency that Afghanistan was the good war, the
necessary one and that we had vital national interests there. That's
true; and I chose to double down in 2009 with a kind of Afghan surge
because I believed it. I also understood that no untested Democratic
President could have survived had he called for even a gradual draw
down.
But while on the military side, we have made great progress, these
struggles -- like Iraq and Libya -- don't have military solutions. And
it's highly dubious that the political outcome is going to be a happy
one.
The chance of an Afghan government emerging that's credible, accountable
and centralized enough with military and security forces to control and
govern the country are slim to none.
And frankly, I have no answer to the vital challenge of how to stop the
Taliban or al-Qaeda in Pakistan or the Pakistani government or
intelligence services from undermining our goals across the border.
On reflection, I now understand that 9/11 wasn't a result of a bunch of
guys running around Tora Bora with AK-47s; but a consequence of 19 guys
who got into the US illegally; trained at our flight schools illegally;
and who penetrated our aviation security system with impunity.
These attacks on the Towers and Pentagon could have been planned
anywhere; in fact, the last two terrorist near misses in Detroit and
Times Square came not from Afghanistan but from Pakistan and Yemen. We
will try with our own counter-terrorism measures to take the fight to
the enemy and to protect the homeland; but we simply cannot be
everywhere. Al-Qaeda s much weakened; but still quiet capable. Future
attempts against the United States are almost inevitable.
As for Libya, I never intended to intervene militarily. It is true that
in many respects my foreign policy has come to resemble George W. Bush --
in Iraq, Afghanistan; Guantanamo; the war against terror (we don't
really call it that).
But frankly, I was suspicious of the freedom agenda, not because I
don't like freedom but because it was too simplistic, open-ended and
potentially committing for the United States. I also know that we have a
somewhat contradictory view of people who win elections fairly that we
don't like, such as Hamas. I'm not sure even now what I'm going when the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt wins a large percentage in the
parliamentary elections. Will we talk to them?
Still faced with Arab Spring racing across the Middle East and the fact
that Qadhafi was about to inflict a cruel winter of massacres on the
people of Benghazi, I simply couldn't stand by. So I developed a
complicated strategy to get buy in from the UN Security Council, NATO,
the Arab League designed to pretend that the US wasn't in charge and
that genuinely others were shouldering the burden of involvement to stop
Qadhafi.
But to do that I had to construct a couple of fictions in order to get
others to support us. That fiction was the notion that our goal was
only to protect civilians. Our real goal -- unstated of course -- is
regime change. Without Qadhafi's departure from Libya, or defeat, the
Libyan people will never be free from his capacity to harm them; and
neither will we.
Our problem, of course, is that there's a considerable gap between this
objective and the means we have to achieve it. We hope that the no fly
zone plus gives us the capacity to weaken the Libyan regime and empower
the opposition so that they can defeat him. How long this may take; what
the consequences are fro the future of Libya; who the rebels are and
what kind of government they want, I cannot say. I do hope for the best
and am counting on the fact that the United States will not have to bear
the primary burden of this campaign. Though should it go badly -- south,
so to speak -- I don't know how we could stay out.
My fellow Americans, we are witnessing profound changes throughout the
Arab world. And we want to support truly peaceful democratic change. But
to quote a renowned Christian theologian Reinhold Niebuhr, America can't
manage history. Nor can we use our military to support opposition
forces everywhere. What happens in view of what I've done in Libya if
the mullahcracy in Tehran or the Assad regime in Syria starts killing
their own people in large numbers, I can't say right now.
But I can say two things with certainty. First, by the end of this year
we will have withdrawn all combat forces from Iraq. Second, while I
would like to set a target date of 2014 (and stick by it) for a similar
exit from Afghanistan, I will not commit to that now. Whatever doubts I
have about the probable success of our mission there, we must see it
through: that means an Afghan central government with enough military
and security forces to be able to stand up on their own.
In democracies, Niebuhr also said that we are likely to find only
proximate solutions to insoluble problems. I believe that. Politics
and the complexities of most issues almost always prevent perfect
solutions. Whether it's the middle east or reducing the deficit, the
answers lie not in the perfect but most likely in the good. I close
with the words of another American president, John F. Kennedy, who
reaffirmed Niebuhr's philosophy by once describing himself as an
idealist without illusion. That's where America must be. Never giving
up on the hope that the world and America can be a better place. But as
we go about the business of improving it, let's do so with our eyes wide
open.
Follow Aaron David Miller on Twitter:
www.twitter.com/aarondmiller2
"Al-Qaeda s much weakened; but still quiet capable. Future attempts against the United States are almost inevitable."
Which makes me feel like with Obama, we're back in the Bush days, asking ourselves.... "What the heck are we doing in Afghanistan exactly??".
BUT I am NOT holding my breath waiting for ANY politician in general and Obama in particular to give a speech that is so honest.
My fellow Americans...
We haven't left a country we've invaded in nearly 100 years. What makes you think now is going to be any different?
Thank you and God Bless the United States of America
I believe that's inaccurate, some of them were here on Student Visas.
That would make this Democrat really proud.
This "volatile region, which is critical to our national interests,"......isn't, not really........... Only the oil beneath their borders is.
Had our Government representatives shown the leadership and political will put forth by the people of Denmark after the first energy crisis.....the"Arab Oil Embargo", the trillions that we have wasted on needless wars in the this "volatile region" would have been invested in our own infrastructure, development of renewable energy resources, and improvements in efficiencies that would have completely eliminated our need for supplies of foreign oil.
Policies we STILL have not undertaken.
Capitalism's darker side. where profit is more important than people, and death becomes nothing more than "collateral damage".
We need to bring all troops home, rethink our global position, start strategy development from scratch. And we need to think of Muslim populations as potential partners and independent peoples and stop treating them as servants in client states or potential enemies. Such a new way of seeing the world could help us find the tools we need to dig ourselves out of the hole we buried ourselves in. Otherwise, I'm afraid, we may be down for the count.
Right now we ar on a loosing course
Here is the real story. General, I need to look strong.
Well sir, RR bombed Libya and looked great, we could bomb the hell out of them and say we are saving lives by killing people. Always worked in the past.
Great, buy enough UN votes so we can be legal, call in France and GB, they can take the expenses off the billions in their banks and lets get this going.
Government is gridlocked for a reason. I see certain industries w/ soaring profits. Follow the money and it's easy as 1-2-3.
As long as even 30% of this country is "socially conservative" the current format won't work. We are clearly rewarding social close-mindedness while pushing away our academic immigrants with the most talent. Even back during the Cold War, America knew the competitive choice would be to keep the brightest here in the States.
Then the game plan changed.
"Social purification, send that to the churches. That'll keep 'em busy"
"De-regulate everything"
"By the time they notice, nobody will have any money to compete"
To me, it seems the ONLY way out is to LIMIT terms for congressional service and OPEN up the avenues towards getting elected. Democratic leadership is completely guilty of this, by the way. Those elected officials all look very comfortable to me, and NONE vote along the party's "ideals".
If everybody is worried about themselves, WHO IS LOOKING OUT FOR THE COMMON GOOD?
You can't use that excuse for everything, congress.
Don't even get me started on the judicial branch. Life terms? Increasing life expectancy? Over-scrutinized selection resulting in stagnant decision making?
Even a joke like "serenity now" makes NO sense in today's climate.