Somalia in particular and Horn of Africa in general are at such a volatile stage that any misstep -- domestic or foreign -- could only further exacerbate that perilous condition. One such potential misstep gathering cloud is the recently proposed US foreign policy toward Somalia known as the Dual-Track approach.
First, a brief background: In 2006 -- over a decade after the infamous "Black-Hawk Down" incident that caused Somalia and the US to drift apart -- the US has shown renewed interest in Somalia. As a result, in recent years, the US has led donor nations in generosity. Notwithstanding the fact that roughly ninety percent of the over $200 million it donated to Somalia being earmarked to AMISOM -- the African Union troops there to enforce peace.
Second, since the historic Cairo Speech, the anticipation was high in Somalia as it was in other parts of the Islamic world that the Obama administration would finally do away with that all too familiar foreign policy based on the global war on terror. And, for almost two years, while the US inter-agencies debated what the new policy toward Somalia would be, there was a growing sense of hope that the new administration would conscientiously craft a policy "based on mutual respect, and mutual interest".
Then, all of a sudden, there appeared the Dual-Track approach!
In a nutshell, this policy is based on engaging diplomatically and economically any and all Somali political actors -- armed or unarmed -- as long as those entities are not supporting the extremist group al-Shabaab. Even if these actors are overtly or covertly opposed to the TFG.
Understandably, the impetus driving this new policy is the impatience caused by the rapid change of Somalia's security landscape in the past two decades. In addition to the growing violent extremism, there is the transnational threat of piracy, arms smuggling, human and drug trafficking. Needless to say that these threats are further complicated by the slow progress of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) in building a robust security apparatus, and broadening its territorial control.
But, in an apparent effort to adapt its security and strategic needs to the reality on the ground, the US seems to have inadvertently stepped into a clan minefield that could cause it, and indeed the TFG, significant political setback and long-term threat.
And while providing economic incentive and the prestige of diplomatic engagement might generally lure or charm interest groups, in clan-centric communities that understand federalism only through the prism of the dominant clan's right to control resources and hoard power, it's likely to have an adverse effect.
And while this is a "US policy made in Washington" it is hard to ignore how it closely resembles another failed approach to Somalia.
Neighboring Ethiopia has unsuccessfully been pursuing almost a similar policy for two decades. It did not succeed, because, on one hand, it undermined the sovereignty and the territorial integrity of the Somali state; and on the other, as a result of the zero-sum competition that exists between clans, it was sowing seeds of division, marginalization, and hate that perpetuated violence and chaos.
While it still retains friendly relations with the TFG, Ethiopia has unilaterally been engaging "Somaliland" and "Puntland" in all diplomatic, military and economic fronts as if these two political entities have the absolute autonomy to frame their respective foreign, defense, and monitory policies that are independent of Somalia.
Make no mistake, Somaliland and Puntland had legitimate grievances that compelled them to explore drastic secessionist and semi-secessionist options. They have taken their matters into their own hands and since became success stories that should make all Somalis proud. Both have established semblance of peace in the North-Western and North-Eastern regions. On the other hand, their actions have lend a façade of authenticity to the so-called "building blocks approach" that some special interest groups were adamantly pushing in the past two decades.
The deriving premise of that approach is based on an ill-conceived notion that Somalia could never sustain itself as a nation-state, and that its people can only coexist as clan-based enclaves that are independent of each other. The failure of the state, according to these groups, is irreversibly permanent.
So, can these clan-based building blocks ensure sustainable security and stability?
Clan demarcations are intertwined both in Somaliland and Puntland where distrust and territorial dispute have kept these two successful communities apart. And even more complex dynamics exist in the recently formed Hiranland; and soon to come -- should this trend continues -- Jubaland, and Banadirland. And, a preview of the new violence that is likely to ignite in each is already playing out in Puntland.
Back to the Dual-Track approach; one of the most detrimental obstacles that would face this approach would come from the regional-based partners' unwillingness to participate in positive engagement on matters of mutual interest or collaborative coexistence with the next door free floating political entity. Any skeptic would only have to review the Somaliland and Puntland's record of collaboration in the many years that each was operating independent of the Somali government.
In conclusion: If there is any indication that the best bulwark against the spread of violent extremism in Somalia is found through fragments of clannish polities and regions that function independent of the state, then both the US and Somalia ought to shout 'Eureka!' in unison. But that is hardly the case.
Already these regions are expecting pigeonholed security schemes and safe zones under the command of various dominant clans in partnership with contracted private security companies (who are accountable to no one.) And this, needless to say, would only prove to be the best recruitment campaign for al-Shabaab.
If this dual-track approach promises any hope, it is found in the words of Johnnie Carson, Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, when he said in his presentation on this policy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies "...we decide what to do, we don't base our decisions on what Ethiopia might think is appropriate and we'll reserve the right to change this policy whenever we want".
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Abukar Arman is Somalia's Special Envoy to the United States.
Follow Abukar Arman on Twitter: www.twitter.com/abukar arman
The US dual tract policy is similar to Ethiopia's dual tract policy toward Somalia that has been in place for the last twenty years. Ethiopia has supported and even hosted the establishment of Transitional Somali Governments (TFGs) on one hand and has encouraged the establishment of regions that want to be recognized such as "Somaliland" and "Puntland" on the other hand. In fact, Ethiopia has made agreement with these regions that are built on clan dominance to support Ethiopia's security forces that are in pursued of the Somali, Oromo or other Ethiopian human rights individuals who are fleeing the oppression of the Ethiopian government without involving the TFG.
Ethiopia has even succeeded convincing these regions such as Somaliland and Puntland to hand over men and women who fled Ethiopia without due process. It is no secret that Ethiopia has been micromanaging the Somali affairs via the warlords and militias that are loyal to it. Ethiopia continues to fund and arm Somali warlords and other groups that are operating inside Somlia
In a nutshell, this US policy toward Somalia appears to be endorsing of Ethiopia's long standing policy toward Somalia and this will in the long run create more anti-Americanism in the region. US's interest and that of her allies are in a collusion course and it is time US changes course and rethink the dual tract approach that recognizes anyone and everyone that supports or against the government, including those who undermine Somalia's territorial integrity.
Thanks,
Nura
You and I know, as Muslims on the continent, the battle of the Islamic insurgencies to rid our lands of the secular Muslims and bring back shari'ah law. This is a problem that is not going away soon as we both know.
In the middle are our brothers and sisters who are powerless to stop either side of this battel. Many Islamic surveys have suggested that in Muslim lands, the people want to return to shari'ah law but the west has promoted shari'ah law as the monster. And yet, it has been under secular rule of law, we have witnesses the worst human rights failings, corruption beyond belief, the destruction of Islamic values, summary killings and jailings of opposition parties that espouse shari'ah law restoration.
Somalia has been left to its own devices and the victims are the people! The road that Somalia must take is one that the people want, which under the shari'ah is correct and not a road featuring American agents governing behind the scenes, creating mischief in the land, devalue Islamic tenets, introducing western cultural themes that run contrary to Islamic law.
Al Shabaab is not going away as we both know and a compromise to bring peace must be in the best interest of the people and not the Americans!
Somaliland, separated from the Center for almost twenty years now, has no interest in rejoining the chaos in Mogadishu. Puntland has always played its cards with an eye to participate in the TFG when advantageous, but to create distance from the Center if they lose power in the "official government."
Since Jihadists took control of much of the South and Central regions, it is prudent for the US to reopen lines to Somaliland and Puntland, outside of the "official" doctrines of the UN and other international agencies. I wait with all the other Somalia-observers to see what the "dual track" policy really means. Is it driven by the State Department or the Pentagon? Is it only an extension of the anti-Al Qaeda / Al-Shabaab activity? Is there any hope that the new US policy will take hold in a humanitarian way in Somaliland and Puntland?
Muslims have a Godgiven right to self determination FREE from American imperial interloping and intervention.
It should be totally clear that Donald Rumsfeld blocked, editted, and overrode the articles of the transformational stages of the Iraqi constitution.
That alone shows the submission to American imperial exceptionalism which America expects of Muslim people.
What have they done last two years to help Somalia except line their pockets while their own soldiers are unpaid and sell their guns to Alshabab.
Why will USA or any other country bankroll the bottomless bit of Vila Somalia protected by Ugandan and Burundi soldiers?
Do you have any support anywhere in Somalia or control one single Village? the only thing they have ever done was to sign away and try to sell big chunk of Somali rich Sea to Kenya thanks to god they failed?
Now you are blaming other countries for your inept and corrupt goverment when the world decided to cut their loses and support other Somalis regions that are providing working solution without support or outside help? Why are you worried now?
I Support anyone who can achieve a United and peaceful Somalia. I believe now Puntland model is best solution for Somalia.
Somali
Ethiopia prefers Somalia to be divided and weak and therefore vulnerable to its power.
America prefers weak coalitions which are dependent upon America aid so they are easier to control.
Surely you can see that America has NO RIGHT to broker, facilitate, fund, interfere, interlope, or even set foot in the Horn of Africa, except as tourists or maybe business partners.
America supported the Ethiopian invasion and America would side with Ethiopia for any notion of Oromo or Ogaden unification with the greater Somali people.
The joke is on those Somalis who think that running to America's embrace will bring about peace and stability. And America's interests are in the vast energy resources.
When I look at a map or Google Earth I see only what was once Somalia. Could you provide HuffPo in a future post or blog with a map outlining the three distinguished territories Somalia, Somaliland and Puntland and also the newly emerging entities?
Somaliland elders (northwest territory) met for six months in 1991 to hash out the basics of a "secession" from Somalia. The borders they claimed were exactly the same as the borders of the old British Somaliland, a Protectorate for decades, and an independent country for a short time before it agreed to merge with the former Italian colony, Italian Somaliland. The merged territories are recognized by the UN and world community as "Somalia."
In the late 90's, Puntland (Northeast territory) announced itself as an autonomous State of Somalia. Puntland claimed territory that overlaps with the Somaliland notion. This overlap is based on clan affiliation, not historical boundaries. Ironically, the petroleum is thought to be in the disputed zone. Somaliland and Puntland both have functioning democracies. Their southern cousins are in the news all the time because of their instability, the Jihadist conflicts, and the "official Somalia" being based there in Mogadishu.
Somalis, nomads historically, spill over their borders in all directions, inhabiting much of Northeast Kenya, Eastern Ethiopia, and Djibouti. No other culture in Africa spills over its borders in this way.