What If a State Failed and Nobody Cared?

When most Americans think of Mexico, they probably think of mariachi bands or Tijuana. If they're in a bad mood, they think about illegal immigration or drug gangs. But no one puts Mexico in the same category as a violent, unstable state like Pakistan. No one, that is, except the Pentagon.

"In terms of worse-case scenarios for the Joint Force and indeed the world, two large and important states bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse: Pakistan and Mexico," the U.S. Joint Forces Command cautions in its Joint Operating Environment 2008 report. The report in itself is not a prediction of Mexican collapse but an analytical wargame designed to test all possible contingencies. Nevertheless, the JFCOM report is a wakeup call to an America in denial of our Southern neighbor's increasingly desperate condition.

Mexico is under siege in a bloody drug war that has claimed the lives of thousands. Powerful drug cartels utilizing former Mexican Special Forces operatives as enforcers have wreaked bloody havoc, assassinating beat cop and high-ranking federale alike. Their mission: make Mexican President Felipe Calderon, who cracked down on them with police and military forces, an offer he can't refuse. They will not cease their assault until the Mexican government buckles and recognizes their unlawful authority.

The cartels are empowered by the structural dysfunction of the Mexican state. As Mexican public intellectual Enrique Krauze argues in Mexico: A History of Power, seventy years of one-party rule by the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) have created massive corruption within the Mexican government. The PRI's legacy is the criminalization of the state and the creation of an atmosphere where political power can be bought and sold as a raw commodity.

Immense profits from drug trafficking created an independent base of power that cartels have effectively utilized to co-opt the Mexican state, buying the allegiances of policemen, soldiers, and high-ranking civil servants. This illicit economy has not been affected by Mexico's low real wages and falling oil prices, factors that are sure to deepen the cartels' hold over underpaid government officials.

Mexico will not collapse like Somalia or Afghanistan. Instead, we should fear Mexico as another Colombia -- a feudalized state where the central government cannot exercise power over a multitude of violent non-state actors. A weak Mexican state increases the the power of cartels and puts US citizens at risk from their predations. Illegal immigration may increase -- but this time as refugees rather than economic migrants. And certainly any terrorist group seeking to operate in the Americas would find a feudalized Mexico to be an excellent operations base.

America should offer law enforcement and military advisers, but make aid conditional on genuine Mexican efforts to improve the rule of law. Law enforcement cooperation and intelligence sharing, within reasonable bounds, should also be increased. Whatever aid is offered must be done in a manner that respects Mexican sovereignty and popular sensibilities, taking stock of our negative image throughout Latin America.

Most importantly, coordination should not be limited solely to Washington and Mexico City. Border governors should take the lead in collaborating with their Mexican counterparts in the struggle against disorder and crime. Forums like the annual Border Governors' Conferences should be greatly expanded to give political executives on both sides of the Rio Grande an opportunity to build sustainable strategies combining law enforcement response and social reform.

Looming over the Mexican problem is our failed war on drugs. Mexican cartels owe their prominence to America's insatiable desire for illegal drugs, a desire that defies ham-handed attempts at prohibition. A change in strategy -- whether a more effective means of prohibition or alternatives such as legalization or decriminalization -- is necessary to reduce the power of criminal organizations. Unfortunately, there is a bipartisan consensus to continue the present failing strategy, making a drug policy switch of any kind unlikely in the near future.

We will have to make do with the tools we already possess in order to shore up the Mexican government against non-state threats. But we should never forget that the solution to Mexico's problems ultimately lies in the resilience and ingenuity of the Mexican people themselves, not Washington diktat. Our heavy-handed drug war strategies in South America succeeded only in turning the people against us -- and a Mexican stabilization operation must not become another Plan Colombia.

Walling off the problem, as many anti-immigration groups suggest, is impossible in a world of globalized threats and porous borders. And indifference, like a subprime mortgage, is sure to incur a steep cost.

Comments

[chnge2012]

This has been brewing for many many years, ask so california, now the whole state bankrupt after many decades of a social system being taxed to the breaking point which is now. The first thing the U.S. should do is seal the border with armored divisions because when Mexico does collapse and it will Hundreds of thousands will be crossing the border by the week, then that will be the death of the U.S.. Citizens in this country must do what it will take to defend their lives.

[thejuggler]

Adam,

As Mexico has been a failed state for a certain number of years few American have ever truly smelled the flesh of such a disaster due to political and economic reasons. Thus it could be observed that geographical proximity to a failed state does not dictate pragmatic American intervention or dialougue.

-The Juggler

[Bardmess]

"Looming over the Mexican problem is our failed war on drugs. Mexican cartels owe their prominence to America's insatiable desire for illegal drugs, a desire that defies ham-handed attempts at prohibition. A change in strategy -- whether a more effective means of prohibition or alternatives such as legalization or decriminalization -- is necessary to reduce the power of criminal organizations. Unfortunately, there is a bipartisan consensus to continue the present failing strategy, making a drug policy switch of any kind unlikely in the near future."

This is what has to change. Public re-education and drug rehabilitation would be expensive, but not as costly as the current "war on drugs". Let's just stop waging war on our problems and work together to find solutions that work.

[fulanita]

Let's not forget to mention that Mexico also now has the highest rate of kidnapping in the world. It's especially saddening for me to see how the violence has taken over. My family lives in a part of Mexico that was previously unaffected by much of the violence and now it's not uncommon to hear about shootings in town squares or decapitated bodies found on the side of the road. It's difficult to be hopeful, especially because of the widespread corruption in every aspect of government and law enforcement, and the nepotism and cronyism when it comes to employment. The US does care, if only because the worse Mexico gets, the more it affects us. If helping Mexico is for purposes of US national security, it might be something I'm willing to support though as you mentioned, a solution has to include the Mexican people.

[Adam Elkus - Huffpost Blogger]

"If helping Mexico is for purposes of US national security, it might be something I'm willing to support though as you mentioned, a solution has to include the Mexican people."

I don't mention this for space reasons, but in a broader sense this is not the only valid reason we should help Mexico. We have, since 9/11, really forgotten our roots and ties in the greater Americas and that we are part of a hemispheric community. It's our moral duty to help our Southern neighbor because we are a part of that greater community and should be involved in preserving order and peace. Note that this conception of America's place is much different than the Monroe Doctrine's 19th-century emphasis on controlling the destiny of the region. There is also, as I predominately highlight, a strong practical as well as idealistic reason in that we catch a cold (or, to be more blunt, a cartel) if Mexico sneezes.

[fulanita]

Our "roots and ties" in Latin America have not actually been forgotten since 9/11, as you say. It is a fact that Latin America has ALWAYS been the most ignored region by the US. It grabs our attention when there's an alleged threat of communism and now of left-wing governments. We impose our neo-liberal policies, for example, for our benefit more than theirs. I don't believe there are any "moral" ways to help Mexico as the US has rarely done so. The only role the US should play here is one of, as you state, preserving order and peace. Of course they should help for greater idealistic reasons, etc. but I'm just saying actions based on self-interest might not be so terrible for once...

[GuillermoGodinez]

As a person who has worked in both Colombia and Mexico, I fear the situation in Mexico will evolve into something much worse than Colombia - minus ideologically driven left-wing guerrillas. Despite all of Colombia's dysfunctions, the country has a history of flawed, yet pluralistic democracy. I would say the situation in Mexico may come more to resemble current day Caracas, Venezuela. For those of who don't know Caracas has for years now had twice the murder rate of Bogotá and Medellín and even higher than Cali. Bogotá and Medellín are statistically safer than Washington DC, Detroit, New Orleans and Oakland, California. This does not mean that Colombia is okay, though it has improved, rather that many US cities are in bad shape, only to get worse as economic crisis ensues.

[Adam Elkus - Huffpost Blogger]

Guillermo,

Have you ever read any of Max Mainwaring's Strategic Studies Institute monographs on Venezuela? Some interesting stuff to chew over.

http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/people.cfm?authorID=18

[luziannagirl]

What if a state failed and no one cared? No one, meaning governments, public servants, and officials?

Witness the ruined City of New Orleans. That's what will happen, on a national scale.

[Adam Elkus - Huffpost Blogger]

Luziannagirl,

That's correct--a parallel to the failed state abroad is the failed community at home, which is sadly growing more and more common. Thank you for your comment!

-Adam