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Adam Winkler

Adam Winkler

Posted: August 4, 2010 05:56 PM

Wednesday's landmark decision by a federal court that California's ban on same-sex marriage violates the U.S. Constitution begins to pave the way for an eventual Supreme Court decision on marriage equality. How will the Supreme Court rule?

When the California case was first filed by the all-star legal team of Ted Olson -- who argued Bush v. Gore for George W. Bush and then became his Solicitor General -- and David Boies -- who, ironically, represented Al Gore in the disputed presidential contest -- the leading gay rights organizations, joined by the ACLU, came out against the lawsuit. They shared Olson and Boies's goal of securing marriage equality, of course, but they feared what the conservative Roberts Court might do. A strong Supreme Court decision against gay marriage would create a precedent that would take decades to undo. With our society moving generally in the direction of more tolerance for gays and lesbians, activists wanted to wait a few more years before bringing a case to the high court.

But gay rights activists may have been too pessimistic about the current Supreme Court. It's true that the Roberts Court is conservative and that several Justices are unlikely to be open-minded about same-sex marriage, including the four most right-leaning Justices: Antonin Scalia, John Roberts, Clarence Thomas, and Samuel Alito. On the other side of the bench, there are four Justices likely to be favorable to Olson and Boies's argument that the denial of marriage rights to same-sex couples violates the Constitution: Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Stephen Breyer, Sonia Sotomayor, and Elena Kagan (assuming she is confirmed).

As usual in the Supreme Court these days, the swing vote belongs to Anthony Kennedy. And there are several reasons to believe that Kennedy, though conservative on many issues, will vote with the liberals on this one. The Supreme Court has issued two major decisions dealing with gay rights over the past 15 years. Both decisions came out strongly in favor of gay rights -- and both were written by Justice Kennedy.

In one of those decisions, Lawrence v. Texas, which held that bans on consensual sexual activity among same-sex partners were unconstitutional, Kennedy wrote that "our laws and tradition afford constitutional protection to personal decisions relating to marriage" and other "family relationships." "These matters, involving the most intimate and personal choices a person may make in a lifetime, choices central to personal dignity and autonomy, are central to the liberty protected by" the Constitution. "Persons in a homosexual relationship may seek autonomy for these purposes," Kennedy wrote, "just as heterosexual persons do."

These words suggest Justice Kennedy believes that gays and lesbians should have the same rights and privileges as heterosexuals. Of course, no right that heterosexuals enjoy is denied more often to gays and lesbians than marriage.

Justice Kennedy is also known to be the Supreme Court Justice most likely to vote in favor of expansive interpretations of individual rights. He's a libertarian, which means he almost always sides with the individual against the government. This has led him to vote in ways that liberals love and conservatives hate -- such as his vote to affirm Roe v. Wade -- and vice-versa -- such as his vote against government regulation of corporate speech. But it bodes well for the liberals in the same-sex marriage case.

Of course, no one can really predict what the Supreme Court will do. The same-sex marriage case will take years to reach the high court and, in the meantime, there may be turnover among the Justices. But so long as the question of marriage equality turns on Justice Kennedy's vote, Olson and Boies -- and those in the gay and lesbian community who are depending on them to win this case -- are in good hands.

 

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03:13 PM on 08/18/2010
Gay "marriage" activists imagine that homosexuality is novel and marriage is a human right. Homosexuality occurs in all of recorded human history. In Greco-Roman civilization, it was both PREVALENT and PREDATED Christianity. STILL the Greeks and Romans did not tinker with the definition. Human right? Every gay person in Western Civilization over the past 2,000 years had NO IDEA they were missing a "human right"?

Recall Justice Burger's notes on Roe v. Wade. Faced with overwhelming legal precedent of protection of the unborn back to the Hippocratic Oath (400 BC), the SCOTUS seized upon the flimsiest historical footnote in order to ram a Sherman tank through a keyhole: the Pythagorian Greeks practiced abortion, so thus the Hippocratic Oath stood utterly nullified. (It never occurred to them to consider why Pythagorian practices never became part of mainstream Western Civ.)

Fast forward to the equally illiterate California court. A "human right" that even Greek and Roman homosexual political leaders--with the power to execute individuals by verbal fiat--never knew they had? Yet in the entire Greek and Roman eras never once did they rethink marriage as being between one man and one woman?

Abortion --> the slightest piece of Greco-Roman minutia interprets all of Western common law.

Gay "marriage" --> the whole of Greco-Roman civilization, also part of our common law, turns it upside down.

Driven by their own internal wind vane, the amoral are carried along like floodswept victims.
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loyalist1
From D voter to Ind. voter
09:57 PM on 08/09/2010
Other marriages which are banned in California:
1. Common law
2. Proxy marriage
3. Under age
4. Not appearing in person
5, Unable to pay fee
6. No valid ID
7. Expired 90 day license
8. Certificate not returned in time by officiant

OK....rights activists....get busy.
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Longtimeliberal
07:51 AM on 08/08/2010
I know lots of gay couples who are great people and deserve equal treatment under the law-all men are created equal or did someone forget the constitution?
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KenClay
REPEAL DOMA
07:11 AM on 08/08/2010
Another Bright Day To Rejoice! Marriage Equality for All!
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slogward
03:46 AM on 08/08/2010
I'm not religious and I'm not homophobic. But I am a historian and social scientist. I know where things tend to lead. The assumption running throughout all this comment, Adrianna's editorial today, and pretty much all the liberal media, is 'homosexuality is a good thing'.

I don't see homosexuality as either good or bad, just there; and - between adults in private - it is harmless and nothing to do with the State. The fact that it was ever criminalised demonstrates the fear of ordinary ignorant people over the centuries; but it also reflects the desire of any pack to ostracize abnormality.

Statistically, homosexuality is abnormal - by definition. In terms of human reproduction it is not only abnormal but pointless.

Now the question arises, should we LEGISLATE to allow constitutional approval of abnormal behaviour?

My conclusion is this. An uncivilised society criminalises homosexuality. A decadent society celebrates it.

We're years ahead in the UK. Last year, liberals tried to pass a law banning criticism of homosexuals. After much campaigning, they were stopped, but showed no sign of thinking they might have got it wrong: their agenda is 'homosexuality is good', and being a liberal agenda, it must be right. For me, that's totally illiberal.

Fascists come in all shapes, and political colours. Social change runs the risk of being the thin edge of a very big, anti-democratic wedge. Today's minorities are sometimes tomorrow's commissars.

All I ask is that we remember that.
04:35 AM on 08/08/2010
I agree with George Will, who recently said that "if you're under 30, being gay is of no more interest than being left-handed."

George Will is correct. You are simply wrong.

I always know, when someone starts out their comment with, "I'm not homophobic," that's exactly what they are. Once again, I was proven correct.

I'm 70 years old and I support equal human and civil rights for all. I suspect you're younger than I am, so please accept my wise advice: Grow up and get a life.
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07:50 AM on 08/08/2010
Yes! Glad to know a 70 year old can school a whippersnapper with such ease and flair.

Take that, slogward (aka bigot-who-doesn't-think-they're-a-bigot).
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08:30 AM on 08/08/2010
Statistically, homosexuality is not abnormal. It is perceived to be but it is a natural state of mankind and has always been- but a minority. Minorities tend to suffer due to the stupidity and prejudice of the majority. This is always wrong. When I read that you say you are not homophobic, I know what I am preparing to read. The problem, as I see it, is that you are homophobic. Your hiding behind your knowledge of history and social issues is just not correct. Being educated does not make you right.I think you need a refresher course in social justice and social behavior.
03:18 PM on 08/18/2010
Statistics do not and cannot discern between normal and abnormal sexual behavior.
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OldHick
02:11 AM on 08/08/2010
As a matter of dignity, and liberty, so should polygamists live freely, without restraint. One might also argue for incestuous relationships, entered into freely.

Marriage is different than sex. It is a social conferral, and I do not believe Kennedy will accept marriage although he does protect the right to sexual relations. There is also the concern about people not being able to exercise their right to protect their children from the portrayal of gay life as "normal", and that this might be held to be discriminatory. Parents have the right to portray what is normal to their children through the schools, and this a local matter; as marriage is a custom, and not a legal matter.
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Cal3b G
UShypocrisy
03:13 AM on 08/08/2010
What?? That is crazy. How is gays having the right to marry going to make kids be taught how homosexuals have sex in school?? This argument is so dumb. And kids do need to be taught that there are such things as homosexuals one day and that it's not right to discriminate, harass, and intimidate them, as kids usually do at that age because the only thing they are told about gays is that they are freaks. That only hurts the kid who is!
04:45 AM on 08/08/2010
Marriage to a close relative, and sex among close relatives are banned because of the damage to the gene pool - increasing the prevalence of unhealthy recessive genes. That is a legitimate government interest.

Polygamy may, in fact, become legal some day. It won't be because gays can marry. If it happens, it will be because what we thought was a legitimate governmental interest, turns out to not be legitimate after all.

I'm not arguing in favor of polygamy, but I am observing that the reasons for barring it may not be as strong as those against incest.
08:55 PM on 08/09/2010
Xtians should be on the side of polygamy...as most of the marriages in the Bible were polygamist. We'll see if they change their tune...
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HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
Livin in Spin
Corporate Fat Cat is keepin teh bonus
11:44 PM on 08/07/2010
Kennedy - be on the side of human rights, the correct side of history.
Leave Roberts, Alito, Thomas, and Scalia in the gutter.
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02:02 AM on 08/08/2010
If he is consistent with his past opinions, Kennedy will indeed leave RATS in the legal sewer where they usually wallow.
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Winston Smith
GOP solution: GIVE THE 1% MORE !!!
11:13 PM on 08/07/2010
It's Gonna take years ?!?!?!?

Really ? Seems wrong to me.
08:56 PM on 08/09/2010
I heard a prediction of Fall, 2011. Just an Internet rumor, of course.
Boopsie2008
Hold the Vision-Trust the Process: Obama/Biden
11:08 PM on 08/07/2010
Well, don't forget Judge Tauro's stunning double-barreled contribution to this debate. The two Massachusetts cases (one brought by individuals being denied various federal benefits and the other brought by Massachusetts itself) holding key provisions of the federal Defense of Marriage Act unconstitutional also do a nice job of filleting arguments against same-sex marriage.
11:01 PM on 08/07/2010
A pox on both houses. This could have been a win-win. There is no reason to polarize people over these petty non-concerns. There could be a same-sex contractual arrangement that is neither called "marriage" nor weighted with the drawbacks of a lame "civil union" solution. Instead we get extremist ideologues who talk about the recent legal history of homosexuality, as though that were the real issue. It isn't.
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daward2
11:39 PM on 08/07/2010
You failed to mention how marriage is natural, thus it is occurring in nature like breathing, and how it has not changed at all ever since the world was created 6000 years ago. It has always been one man one woman, both of whom are equals. As far as I am concerned, call it marriage. Anyone who claims any of the BS statements I made (taken from right wing orgs own talking points) is highly mistaken about what they claim to be expert in.
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dirkessgently
Am I right, or am I right?--the Singing Detective
12:20 AM on 08/08/2010
Oh phew I thought you were serious! You certainly played me. Fanning you!
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02:04 AM on 08/08/2010
There are thousands of laws that use the term marriage in defining various rights, obligations, tax situations, etc. The use of any term other than marriage prevents application of those laws to anything other than a heterosexual couple.
03:29 PM on 08/18/2010
...which is easily rectified in the "Definition" provisions of relevant statutes. Example:

I. "Wherever the term "marriage" appears in this article, it shall carry the identical weight and meaning as the phrase, "homosexual union."

II. Homosexual union shall mean a legally binding, spousal relationship between two consenting members of the same sex.

End of discussion. The traditional meaning that has stood the test of time, culture, language, religion, philosophy, and even sexual orientation remains unchanged, and gays get every right believed to have been withheld from them.

The only thing missing is the opportunity to change textbooks and shove it down the throats of unsuspecting children and religious parents, although I'm sure (wink, nod) that would never occur to homosexual activists, right?
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KenClay
REPEAL DOMA
11:00 PM on 08/07/2010
Goodnight my brothers and Sisters! Love to All !
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KenClay
REPEAL DOMA
09:35 PM on 08/07/2010
How is Everyone This Evening?
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KenClay
REPEAL DOMA
07:49 PM on 08/07/2010
Could there be Homophobia on the bench?
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daward2
11:40 PM on 08/07/2010
It's spelled SCALIA. (Or THOMAS.) I dunno if Websters has authorized an ALITO or ROBERTS spelling yet.
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02:05 AM on 08/08/2010
Yes RATS are on the bench of the SCOTUS.
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KenClay
REPEAL DOMA
07:48 PM on 08/07/2010
Rights Without Fights! EQUAL RIGHTS FOR ALL! Gays are Here to Stay We Will Not Go Away! Justice Will Prevail!
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EmiliaRomagna
07:27 PM on 08/07/2010
Rush was absolutely foaming at this decision. Can you imagine his ultimate reaction if a Right-leaning Supreme Court voted in favour of the California court's decision?