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After Today's Prop 8 Victory, What's Next for Same-Sex Marriage?

Posted: 02/ 7/2012 1:14 pm

Today's landmark decision of a federal appeals court striking down California's Proposition 8, which denied marriage rights to same-sex couples, is cause to celebrate. While there have been a few state courts to rule that gays and lesbians are entitled to equal marriage rights under state law, never before has a federal court of appeals -- the level just below the Supreme Court -- declared that gay marriage is protected by the U.S. Constitution. Today's decision has the potential to benefit not only thousands of gay Californians but could establish the foundation for extension of marriage equality to all Americans.

So what's next for Proposition 8 and the supporters of same-sex marriage?

In the short-term, gay couples still cannot marry in California. Although the ban on same-sex marriage has been invalidated, the court is likely to stay its decision pending appeal. While this is disappointing to couples eager to marry, issuance of a stay is normal procedure for a court ruling on a controversial issue in an unsettled area of law. The stay prevents gay couples from marrying until a higher court determines whether to hear the case. If there's no appeal, the stay will eventually be lifted and gay couples will be able to wed.

The million-dollar question is what will the Supreme Court do. While an eventual appeal of today's decision by the three-judge panel of the federal court of appeals is likely, it won't happen immediately. Before seeking Supreme Court review, the parties will likely first request the same federal appeals court that issued the decision today to reconsider its ruling. There's also the possibility that other judges on the appeals court will decide on their own to hear the case "en banc" -- legal terminology for review by a larger group of 11 appeals courts judges. That process could take a year or more. The Proposition 8 case is, therefore, not likely to reach the Supreme Court until 2013, and quite possibly not until 2014.

Gay rights lawyers have mixed feelings about an appeal to the Supreme Court. Some were opposed to the Proposition 8 lawsuit from the beginning, fearing what the conservative-leaning Roberts Court might do. In so many cases dealing with high-profile, controversial issues -- from affirmative action to the Second Amendment -- the Court's conservative wing has emerged triumphant. If the Court decides against marriage equality in the Proposition 8 case, it will set a precedent that may take decades to undo. Given the evidence of public views moving quickly in the direction of acceptance of LGBT rights, many gay rights activists would prefer to wait a few more years before bringing a marriage equality case to the Supreme Court.

With four Justices expected to vote against gay marriage (Roberts, Thomas, Scalia, Alito) and four others expected to vote in favor (Ginsburg, Breyer, Sotomayor, Kagan), how the Court rules is expected to turn on the vote of Anthony Kennedy, the usual swing vote. And that, perhaps surprisingly, buoys the hopes of many in the gay rights community.

The Supreme Court has twice before squarely ruled on gay rights issues and, in both cases, Kennedy wrote strong opinions endorsing equality for all Americans regardless of sexual orientation. In the most recent of those cases, Kennedy wrote that "our laws and tradition afford constitutional protection to personal decisions relating to marriage" and "other family relationships." "These matters," Kennedy continued, "involving the most intimate and personal choices a person may make in a lifetime, choices central or personal dignity and autonomy, are central to the liberty protected by" the Constitution. "Persons in a homosexual relationship may seek autonomy for these purposes just as heterosexual persons do," Kennedy wrote.

Students of the Supreme Court also recognize Justice Kennedy to be the Justice most likely to side with the individual against the government. His libertarian streak sometimes leads him to vote in ways that liberals love -- he voted to affirm women's right to choose =- and other times to vote in ways that conservatives love -- as in the notorious Citizens United case, which freed up business corporations to spend unlimited amounts of money to influence federal elections. Love him or hate him, Kennedy's libertarianism bodes well for proponents of gay marriage.

The California case in particular might be attractive to Kennedy because he could rule narrowly, striking down Proposition 8 without requiring same-sex marriage nationwide. In a 1996 case, Kennedy wrote an opinion for the Court invalidating an anti-gay ballot initiative adopted in Colorado, reasoning that the public debate over the measure betrayed the true goal of the law to be animus toward gay people rather than any legitimate public policy objective. In the Proposition 8 case, the trial judge found the same was true in California. "The campaign to pass Proposition relied on stereotypes to show that same-sex relationships are inferior to opposite-sex relationships," the judge held. The Supreme Court could hold invalid Proposition 8 because of this history without addressing the constitutionality of gay marriage elsewhere.

Even if the Supreme Court decides to take the Proposition 8 case, the Justices might avoid the same-sex marriage question altogether. One of the subsidiary issues in the case is whether the proponents of Proposition 8 are proper parties to the lawsuit. Usually state laws, including ballot measures, are defended in court by the state's attorney general. In California, however, the attorneys general have refused to participate in the lawsuit, arguing that they agree with the challengers that Proposition 8 is unconstitutional. The federal courts in California allowed the initiative's proponents to defend the law, despite some language in an earlier Supreme Court decision that suggested initiative backers do not have standing to defend a law. The Justices could focus on this issue and reserve the marriage question until after the standing question is resolved.

Yet the Supreme Court can't dodge the marriage equality question for long. Even if they avoid ruling on Proposition 8's constitutionality or rule narrowly to give gay people marriage rights only in California, other cases dealing with challenges to the federal Defense of Marriage Act are already winding their way through the federal courts. Some constitutional experts predict that, despite all the attention given to the Proposition 8 lawsuit, a DOMA case is likely to be the first vehicle to present the Justices with the same-sex marriage question.

So there's still a way to go before marriage equality comes before the Supreme Court. But it is only a matter of time.

(Author's Note: An earlier version erroneously suggested that the parties were first required to seek en banc review by this same federal court. Such an appeal is optional.)

 

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Today's landmark decision of a federal appeals court striking down California's Proposition 8, which denied marriage rights to same-sex couples, is cause to celebrate. While there have been a ...
Today's landmark decision of a federal appeals court striking down California's Proposition 8, which denied marriage rights to same-sex couples, is cause to celebrate. While there have been a ...
 
 
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01:45 AM on 02/09/2012
There has been a lot more heat than light about what the Ninth Circuit actually decided, mailny by people on both sides who apparently did not read the Ninth Circuit's decision. All the court said was that if there is a right to same-sex marraige under state law, as there was in California at the time Prop 8 passed, it cannot be taken away by the majority of voters (or the Legislature) in a discriminatory, irrational manner. The Ninth Circuit DID NOT rule that there was a fundamental right under the US Constitution to same sex marriage and DID NOT rule that denying same-sex couple marraige while allowing it to opposite sex couples is a denial of equal protection under the US Constitution. All it said is that if you have that right under the California Constitution, it cannot be taken away in a discriminatory manner. The decision will only apply to California and Prop 8.
06:58 PM on 02/10/2012
The Progressive Court proudly stated their positions quite articulately with profound clearly. Not only are Religious Organizations their enemy NOW, but General voting rights are also if NOT Political Correct Ideology. I wish them Luck selling that to SCOTUS and the American Public. Either We the People own this Government, or the Government own we the People. These two philosophies can NOT Peacefully co-exist. Our New Improved Government is insisting it must own and or SUPERCEDE all Religion, Health Care, Education, Children, Paychecks, and NOW our Voting rights,

Progressive legends are quickly showing their real agendas and consciences toward Individual freedoms. Those who disagree with them will face the Full Power of US Government Sanctions against their persons, and or businesses/religious organization until beaten into submission. The Courts deliberately created this law, outside the will of We the People, and or our Representative legislative Due Process. Now they insist it Doesn't Matter how this law was created: We a handful of select Judges merely Mandate we are Superior than the entire Population of California voters

They deliberately narrowed their Judicial Opinion in hopes of avoiding SCOTUS challenge. I suspect they're going lose because the very fabric of both our Constitution, and Due Process of law has been profusely violated via this Court decree. I believe California should be the next contestant added to the 1965 voting rights act, but that another entirely new legal argument, to be Presented before SCOTUS Review
04:58 PM on 02/08/2012
Finally, you do not need judicial review to enforce "civil rights" (indeed, 26 other judgements across the country have found NO such rights exists!) and in places where they have found such rights, it is often in jurisdictions which were largely gay friendly (Prop 8 had little do so with SSM but the WAY SSM was introduced, i.e. how the constitution should be interpreted - originalist method or via a "if it feels good do it approach"). Given this disagreement (Pro-Prop 8ers think they are protecting religious liberties and children while gays they they are defending civil rights), I think it would be better if entire strip on the West of CA should become its own independent state - given the liberal/conservative divide in the state. Unlike gay or religious activists, I don't have a Monopoly on Wisdom on lifestyle - I support this thing we call "federalism". Alternatively, it might simply be better to introduce an amendment to the Californian constitution which says districts which vote no to statewide ballot initiatives are not bound by the result; hence, the SanFran-etc could have continued to issue marriage licenses while the more conservatives parts of the state lived under their preferred lifestyle values. It might also be better to have a clause which says "No court shall strike down any initiative enacted by voters under the Californian constitution. This initiative bans the judicial review of direct democracy" so we don't get a repeat of hysterical campaign against "activist judges".
05:52 PM on 02/08/2012
Interesting.

So if a referendum gets passed that brings back segregation you don't think the courts have a place to strike it down.

What an... interesting... view point.
08:37 PM on 02/08/2012
YES! Why? Because: "Rights are not transcendental and I'm not solipsistic enough to conceive that there could be other enforceable preferences in the world other than my own. Rights are a product of their society. We chose equal rights over property rights. There is nothing to suggest Supreme Court justices will be infected with the same biases as that of the majority".

For the empirical record: a) the initiative (in 4 states) repealed poll taxes 4 decades before the Supreme Court did; b) California, Oregon and several other states repealed segregation at a referendum in the 1910s (thanks to abolishing the poll tax, actually ALLOWING blacks the right to vote!); c) some of the worst minority abuses were from the courts: the Civil Rights Cases (1883) in which the oligarchs restricted the equal protection clause to cover only actions by a State, not by individuals, thereby allowing discrimination by individuals; Pace v Alabama (1883) in which the oligarchs unanimously affirmed the constitutionality of state anti-miscegenation laws; Bowers v Hardwick (1986) in which the oligarchs upheld a ban on sodomy. Most of the courts reversal are its own lack of defence of minorities.

Courts thus lag, rather than lead social change. Indeed, 26 judgements found no right to SSM! Nice hypothetical: it's unlikely to ever happen and if it did, history would suggest courts would not step in. We also have this thing called federalism and some parts of the US are still as segregated as they have ever been.
08:54 PM on 02/08/2012
Also:
* Oklahoma legislature prevented blacks from voting in 1915. The legislature tried to these grandfather clauses to the voters to entrench it into the state constitution. They rejected it. It remained on the statute books all the way till 1939 when the court invalidated the law, despite it being rejected by the voters in 1916.

* Korematsu in which the oligarchs sent Japanese-Americans to concentration camps. In 1944 Coloradan's held an initiative to ban Japanese aliens from ever owning any land in the state. The voters flatly rejected it. It took another 15 years till the Supreme Court invalidated these laws, which were adopted in14 other legislatures;

* In Reitman, they invalidated an initiative which protected property. But by 1968 - 5 years later - polls had shifted and the federal government passed the Fair Housing Act; in Romer, three states rejected similar bans and in any event anti-discrimination laws don't work as they are rarely enforced;

* Bowers v Hardwick in which the oligarchs upheld a ban on sodomy. They overruled that in 2003, only when a few states had the ban.

Even with Roe most states had already legalised abortion. Courts lag rather than lead social change. You have a naive view of courts operate. And if they did pass segregation (they won't thanks to initiative which abolished poll taxes), simple: don't live in that state. I suspect however we are tyrannizing them more than they are us given only 5-15% of the population would support such
04:51 PM on 02/08/2012
To answer what is to come: nothing. Gay marriage will be on the 2012 ballot, polls already show most voters support it and the issue will be rendered moot as its ratified probably by 51-53% of voters. Indeed, I think this entire litigation has been an entire waste of money - rather than waiting a decade so the thing moves through the courts, it would have been better to spend money to persuade 2.5% of the population to support gay rights either back in 2010 (when polls showed SSM was in the majority). In fact, Prop 8's main argument was this (and I'm quoting from the pamphlet here from the "Yes on 8"): “it overturns the outrageous decision of four activist Supreme Court judges who ignored the will of the people”; "Stop the Imperial Judges". A person could very well support gay marriage, but voted in favor of Prop 8 because of this.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Chris1962
NYC
02:55 PM on 02/08/2012
>>>After Today's Prop 8 Victory, What's Next for Same-Sex Marriage?>>>

Well, since a couple of liberal judges took it upon themselves to overthrow the will of the state's residents, I'd say it's headed back to court.
01:48 AM on 02/09/2012
The so-called will of the people is subject to being controlled and limited by the Constitution. The Founding Fathers were not fans of democracy at all. Will of the people..pfui!
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Chris1962
NYC
01:53 AM on 02/09/2012
As long as you say so.
08:04 PM on 02/09/2012
I do! As well it should be.
08:21 PM on 02/09/2012
Actually most of the judges that sat for the case were appointed by Republican presidents so far.
One of the lawyers arguing FOR gay marriage is a noted Republican.
CA Supreme Court ruled that Prop 22 violated the state constitution so a small majority of voters passed Prop 8 as a constitutional amendment.
Now there is a federal case challenging this portion of the CA constitution. I don't see the conflict here...Our system is working, let it happen.
Is it unlikely that SCOTUS will decided gay marriage for the entire US with this case.
10:12 AM on 02/08/2012
Or it could push the pendulumn far enough to the Left to ensure a backlash, that no one is prepared for.
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Got2Go
Ezekiel 18:13
09:19 AM on 02/08/2012
The best way to filter through something is just follow the money trail.
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Got2Go
Ezekiel 18:13
09:18 AM on 02/08/2012
The obvious group that would be against this would be the insurance companies for obvious reasons.
rikilii
Hush, was the first word you were taught...
10:17 AM on 02/08/2012
Why?  A health insurance plan for a couple costs a lot more than one for an individual.
ThatsTheTheWayItIs
religion, ideology, partisanship are delusional
09:07 AM on 02/08/2012
If this ruling says that "gay marriage is protected by the U.S. Constitution" as author claims, it also means "corporations as people is protected by the U.S. Constitution".

Neither is in the Constitution, it's just the interpretation of a court. And SCOTUS ruled corporations are people, this is a lesser court. But SCOTUS may eventually agree - and THEN gay marriage will be truly constitutional - like the idea that corporations are people.
01:49 AM on 02/09/2012
The ruling does not say that at all, and the corporations comment is a non sequituer.
ThatsTheTheWayItIs
religion, ideology, partisanship are delusional
09:07 AM on 02/09/2012
That's it, no explanation for why you believe that? Are you a lawyer? You are arguing as an advocate, not based on rationality.

Fact: SCOTUS says corporations are people, a lower court says gays can marry. Both are just court judgements that interpret the constitution. That interpretation includes: corporations are people, and gays can marry. Nothing in the Constitution about either - in fact, nothing at all about marriage! Marriage itself is not defined in the Constitution.

The two rulings are exactly the same, except the SCOTUS is more settled. The fact that you argue this is disconcerting, you'll never know your rights. There is nothing in the Constitution about abortion, yet Roe v Wade made abortion a Constitutional right. Exact same thing for gay marriage - and for corporations as people.

You want to pretend that liberal findings are really in the Constitution, and conservative ones are obviously phony. Doesn't work that way, they all have the same legitimacy. Conservatives complain about "activist judges", but it cuts both ways. They give us Roe v Wade and Citizens, and they are both now the law of the land. Sorry, you don't get to overrule SCOTUS, the Founding Fathers wanted it that way.
08:58 AM on 02/08/2012
LEGAL FICTION- The courts ruling in redefining the institution of marriage has the same argument that gives homosexuals the right to deny the law of gravity. The very definition of marriage limits it to man and wife and changing this most fundamental institution of society to accomadate a special class of citizens is Orwellian and undermines the very structure of the court, making it irrelevant. The natural law of marriage and gravity defy the deniers who must suffer the consequences of their folly.
rikilii
Hush, was the first word you were taught...
10:16 AM on 02/08/2012
Traditional human institutions also allowed for slavery, torture, and capital punishment for petty crimes.  If you want to live under that kind of "tradition", I hear that real estate in Kandahar is cheap these days.
11:39 AM on 02/08/2012
When you say 'special class of citizens' I think you really mean, 'second class citizens'. If 'the very definition of marriage' denies citizens the right to marry, it is the definition that is wrong and needs to change. Marriage is not a 'natural law', it is a social institution that should be available to all.
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roch20
"What you see is what you get"
08:27 AM on 02/08/2012
Awesome!
07:33 AM on 02/08/2012
This is only an issue because politicians aren't up to the job. Our politicians can't tackle the real US problems, so they get people fired up about things that will never ever affect them. People are ridiculous to even be concerned with how others run their lives. It keeps the voters distracted, and that's why they keep electing the same disfunctional people to office. Wake up people, it's all a con.
10:14 AM on 02/08/2012
It wasn't politicians who put this on the ballot, but the "people". Of course, our appointed ones have decided that the people cannot be trusted to order and run our own society and lives.
01:29 PM on 02/08/2012
It's the Constitution that says that 'the people' can't run their society in a way that denies rights to the minority.
01:51 AM on 02/09/2012
No, actually it was the Founding Fathers felt that "The People" could not be trusted to be fair and unopressive. The People cannot do whatever you want.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
rextrek
50yr old, Moderate-liberal in S.NJ/Phila
06:55 PM on 02/08/2012
that was an accidental flag - !!!
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Vballboy60
The Dudes abides...with the moderation
06:15 AM on 02/08/2012
Jordan2 and any other religious right trolls....do you have any other questions?

Absolute seperation of church and state. Jefferson, Adams and the other Founders knew this was needed so that neither corrupts the other.

The church may observe their religious dogma without interference by the state....and visa versa. The state is not to be impinged by the church.
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Vballboy60
The Dudes abides...with the moderation
06:00 AM on 02/08/2012
The religious right does not understand the lgal system well enough yet.

Allowing, and the state must, marriage licenses to non-heteros regardless of race, creed, sexual orientation or whatever does not harm to the religious right's freedom of their sectarian or rellgiious belief.

Does no harm.

Conversely, their DOMA and attempt to deny the LGBT community a state license to marry does do the LGBT community harm in the eyes of the judicial system. The right's religious dogma tries to deny the license which then violates the LGBT communtiy's civil rights. The freedom of belief is absolute. The freedom of practice is limited in that it can not violate another American's civil rights.

For example, if a religion required human sacrifice, they can believe that but they can not put it into practice without violating the civil rights of the one to be sacrificed.

Is that simply stated?
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Vballboy60
The Dudes abides...with the moderation
05:46 AM on 02/08/2012
In the second Obama term, he could work to overturn DOMA or he could stand by and let more and more states allow same sex marriages and let the individual state attorney's challenge DOMA in federal courts.

By default, same sex marriage will be allow in fairness. If heteros are allowed a state license, the same must be allowed for all Americans regardless of race, creed, sexual orientation or any other supposed subgroup definition.

Glad to hear that Prop 8 was overturned. Same sex marriage is fair and does not harm to the reigious folks who want to privately practice their religion.

Does no harm. Legal parlance.
04:37 AM on 02/08/2012
I just want to put something out there...

No matter what happens, the orientation that ensures the survival of the himan race will more than likely have an egg waiting for you somewhere....

and China still has the one child per family law, so most of you can breathe a sigh of relief knowing that you never really had to stop playing dress-up or pretend, after all