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Adam Winkler

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Will George Zimmerman Be Convicted?

Posted: 04/11/2012 5:31 pm

The news that Florida prosecutors are bringing charges against George Zimmerman for the death of Trayvon Martin raises two questions: Will Zimmerman be convicted? And what role will Florida's "Stand Your Ground" law play in the case?

Before considering either of these two questions, however, one must recognize that we don't have all the relevant facts yet.

Yet one thing is clear: prosecutors are not going to have an easy time convicting Zimmerman. There are too many conflicting accounts of what occurred that night, which creates the possibility of the jury finding reasonable doubt.

What no one apparently disputes is that Zimmerman, an active neighborhood watch volunteer, saw Martin out on the street of the residential community; called 9-1-1 to report a suspicious person; followed Martin despite being told that wasn't necessary by the 9-1-1 dispatch; and eventually shot Martin at close range.

Beyond that, however, there is much uncertainty. If Zimmerman's story is to be believed -- and, frankly, I am as yet unconvinced -- he gave up the pursuit of Martin and was returning to his car when Martin attacked him. Zimmerman claims that Martin then began banging Zimmerman's head against the concrete and threatened to kill him. If that's right, then Zimmerman will have valid defense under Florida law for using deadly force.

That's not, however, due to the Stand Your Ground Law. In any state in the nation, a person reasonably fearing imminent death or substantial bodily injury is entitled to fight back if no escape is possible. If Zimmerman was being prevented from escaping by Martin's sitting on him, then the expansion of self-defense under Stand Your Ground is irrelevant.

What if Zimmerman's story isn't credible? Even then, a conviction is going to be hard to obtain. That's because there are apparently conflicting accounts of witnesses about who was on top in the struggle. That one fact may be enough for Zimmerman. The conflicting accounts make it more likely that a jury will find that prosecutors haven't proven their case beyond a reasonable doubt. Which eyewitness accounts are believed may depend on the recording of cries of help -- and on whether the judge allowed experts to testify about whose voice, Martin or Zimmerman's, is heard screaming.

The Stand Your Ground law won't likely offer Zimmerman much of a defense in this case, but nevertheless may still be relevant. In particular, the law offers Zimmerman the possibility of avoiding a trial. The real impact of Stand Your Ground laws is not in their expansion of the right of self-defense to the public streets -- many states, including my own liberal state of California, have allowed people to stand their ground for decades. The innovation of Stand Your Ground laws is to establish procedures to reduce the likelihood that a person who kills in self-defense ever has to stand trial.

Traditionally, one claiming self-defense would have the opportunity to raise that defense at trial before a jury. In Florida, however, the Stand Your Ground law gives defendants like Zimmerman the right to a pre-trial hearing to challenge his indictment. At this special pre-trial hearing, which will occur long before any jury trial, Zimmerman will have the opportunity to present evidence to a judge showing he acted in self-defense. If he can show that he was acting in self-defense by a "preponderance of the evidence" -- legalese for "it's more likely than not" -- then the charges against him will be dropped and he'll never face a jury. That burden of proof is not very demanding and requires a showing far less demanding than the "beyond a reasonable doubt" test used in criminal trials ordinarily.

It may well be that, even here, the Stand Your Ground law won't play a big part in the outcome of this case. Criminal defense lawyers in Florida say judges tend not to dismiss homicide charges where the facts are genuinely in dispute. Certainly, the facts in this case are in dispute. One also imagines that most judges would rather not be in the center of the media storm that would almost certainly ensue if Zimmerman is allowed to go free before a trial. Most judges, one can safely assume, would rather have the guilt or innocence of Zimmerman decided by a jury.

So even though many people in America are certain that Zimmerman is guilty, obtaining a criminal conviction in this case is going to be a real challenge for the prosecution. And Florida's Stand Your Ground law may not, in the end, have much of an influence on whether they are successful.

 

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The news that Florida prosecutors are bringing charges against George Zimmerman for the death of Trayvon Martin raises two questions: Will Zimmerman be convicted? And what role will Florida's "Stand Y...
The news that Florida prosecutors are bringing charges against George Zimmerman for the death of Trayvon Martin raises two questions: Will Zimmerman be convicted? And what role will Florida's "Stand Y...
 
 
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11:32 AM on 04/20/2012
Zal..
will he stand trial again?is the case over? is zimmermann free?
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Frank Conley
06:28 PM on 04/17/2012
this will be a simple case for the prosecution if they keep it simple and not play off of media fixations and racial obsession. All they have to prove is that this whole situation was avoidable and did not have to happen, if they do that, manslaughter conviction hands down!
09:20 PM on 04/15/2012
What I find most concerning is that no one truly has any idea of what happened, except for two people, the one who is dead, and the one who pulled the trigger. No one can accurately say what really happened that night, except for those two people. So why does everyone immediately jump to conclusions? Our laws say that we are innocent until proven guilty. However, the entire country has judged this case and formed their own opinions. Zimmerman no longer has that right. He is no longer innocent until proven guilty. He is guilty, and no matter what the court rules, the world will say that he slaughtered an innocent boy. Martin should not be dead. That is the truth. Zimmerman shot him. That is also truth. However, whether Zimmerman shot Martin out of self-defense or not, is completely unknown. I do not believe anyone of us can accurately say what happened or make an accurate judgement. That is why I do not think I can side with anyone in this situation. There is just too much I don't know.
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jch57
10:41 PM on 04/15/2012
Cheer up. The court of public opinion and the ease with which the public is manipulated is exactly the reason we have a criminal justice system. The outrage from Martin's advocates has largely subsided because someone who everyone acknowledges precipitated the incident, was the initial pursuer, and shot and killed a man is now arrested and charged. Maybe he will be found innocent, maybe guilty. As in every trial some will be happy and some not with the outcome. It seems the outrage has now shifted to the Hannity crowd who, evidently, don't even think he should have been arrested, despite being the pursuer, and despite killing an unarmed kid. To hear their side, we are not safe in our homes anymore because we can be arrested for killing murderers and rapists who are in our bedroom. Nonsense, it simply means that if you are going to chase someone down just because you think they looked suspicious and shoot them, then you have to do more than say "I was just defending myself" to answer for the killing. That is all. It's an arrest, that is all. Seems reasonable to me and now maybe the answers to your questions, which should be everyone's questions may be answered.
wsdave
Abusive or Insulting? I won't be responding.
08:45 PM on 04/15/2012
I'm not a lawyer, but it seems that a lot of this case will hinge on the gunshot: Close range? Touching? Upward angle?

These are the sort of things one might expect when shooting someone from the ground.
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jch57
08:35 PM on 04/15/2012
I find it troubling and amazing that so many posters here accept Zimmerman's version of the story without any evidence beyond his own word. We don't get the other side of the story because he who would tell it is dead. Zimmerman clearly was the chaser. Why doesn't Martin have the right to defend himself? Certainly he had a right to feel threatened. I have yet to see one explanation of why it is so unthinkable that Martin felt threatened and tried to defend himself...with his skittles. And why he had no right to do so. But there are clearly so many here to whom Zimmerman is a hero that maybe I will get an answer. And when you do offer an explanation, please refrain from treating Zimmerman's version as a proven fact...if we can't get Martin's side of the story I am uninterested in Zimmerman's unsubstantiated version.
09:11 PM on 04/15/2012
Must be because they're raciss...or because witnesses largely corroborate his story, because he passed a stress test, because details of the case largely agree with his story, and, most importantly, because the default is to assume that he's innocent. What's really troubling is that, given the uncertainty of events, "many people in America are certain that Zimmerman is guilty."
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jch57
10:24 PM on 04/15/2012
The default is to assume he is innocent once he is arrested and charged, not to assume he is innocent when he is known to have killed someone. If all anyone has to do is claim self defense and that makes them untouchable we are in trouble. If you attack someone, and he fights back and you feel threatened because you have bitten off more than you can chew, do you have the right to kill? All that aside, your answer must be to someone else's question because it doesn't address mine. I asked if Zimmerman was chasing Martin and Martin, who was unarmed, felt threatened, why did he not have the right to defend himself? It is telling that you answered a question that I did not ask and no one else has seen fit to give it a shot, despite the virtual Zimmerman love-fest that this article seems to have precipitated.
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WilliamBradford
Veritas vos Liberabit
08:54 AM on 04/16/2012
The claim that Zimmerman was the "chaser" is misleading. He ran a short distance in order to maintain visual contact with the person that he was talking to the 911 dispatcher about. He lost contact and gave up. There is no evidence that there was anything for Martin to "defend" against. If he felt threatened, he was less than 100 yards from his house. He had plenty of time - according to the 911 calls - to get there and be safe.

Zimmerman is not a hero. He is someone who was trying to protect his neighborhood and may have overreacted and found himself in a situation that got out of control. There may be evidence that he was guilty of more than that. So far, that evidence is not public and all the public evidence - police reports, eyewitnesses, and 911 recordings - support his story.
wsdave
Abusive or Insulting? I won't be responding.
08:26 PM on 04/15/2012
"What no one apparently disputes is that Zimmerman, an active neighborhood watch volunteer, saw Martin out on the street of the residential community; called 9-1-1 to report a suspicious person; followed Martin despite being told that wasn't necessary by the 9-1-1 dispatch; and eventually shot Martin at close range."

Actually, there IS dispute about your chronology of events.
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banana republican
Next in line for crumbs from the King's Table
08:25 PM on 04/15/2012
If anyone out there doesn't know what 'Blackstone's forumulation' is, you should research it before the final verdict, as it may/should temper your emotions if the verdict isn't what you're lusting for. By and large, the commenters seem to want vengence on Zimmerman and seem to have little interest in the justice aspect of it.
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gneep
if it wasn't always the same, it'd be different
07:40 PM on 04/15/2012
If I were Zimm, I would throw myself on the mercy of the court, and plead guilty, with extenuating circumstances or something to that effect.
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Darius Molark
de gustibus non est disputandum
07:01 PM on 04/15/2012
He will probably be convicted, but most important is the mindset that created him. We are going too far in our emotions toward conviction without analyzing the psychology of racism in our fine land. Condemnation is easily pursued, but we need to make our land mentally healthy for all. It is not. There is too much racial stress. How can we change this?
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07:26 PM on 04/15/2012
How about starting with something simple like a campain for having a Mom and Dad in the home.
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gneep
if it wasn't always the same, it'd be different
07:41 PM on 04/15/2012
by embracing people you fear.
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08:09 PM on 04/15/2012
Visit East St Louis and try to make some friends.
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escher3360
A nation in distress
04:49 PM on 04/15/2012
Just getting to the point of arrest is a major accomplishment. How the case plays out in the long run remains to be seen. There is victory in the fact that law enforcement indifference over the death of a young black man is unacceptable. One can only hope that from this tragedy something good will come. Time will tell. I for one am not holding my breath.
04:20 PM on 04/15/2012
"On April 22, 2011, Zimmerman called to report a black male about “7-9” years old, four feet tall, with a “skinny build” and short black hair. There is no indication in the police report of the reason for Zimmerman’s suspicion of the boy."

He made over 40 911 calls in less than 2yrs, can you find the common thread/words? I think the State Attorney's have, hence the 2nd Degree charge. I think George simply snapped and had the gun way too handy. Too bad no one took him to task on this trend/habit before he blew. The Martin and Zimmerman family's both suffer because of this. I think his attorney would be better off arguing some sort of of diminished mental state rather than anything remotely close to self defense or stand your ground. He had it in for guys like Trayvon, w/o even knowing Trayvon.
wsdave
Abusive or Insulting? I won't be responding.
08:31 PM on 04/15/2012
The government SPECIFICALLY tell us: "If you see something, say something."

The number of 911 calls simply tells us that he was paying attention.
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elgeezr
09:25 PM on 04/15/2012
If GZ went on a citizens patrol 5 nites a week for 2 years that would be 500 patrols. Do 40 911 calls still seem a lot? Or how about this; 1 patrol a week for 100 weeks. Does that still seem like a lot of calls to 911?

According to you we should believe every one of those calls was race related. Is that right? Or am I reading you wrong?

You know what CLE, I think you have "it in for guys like Zimmerman w/o even knowing Zimmerman."
04:14 PM on 04/15/2012
How did he get so far from the sidewalk?
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07:47 PM on 04/15/2012
It's not like an old western movie. Martin recoiled from the mordant surprise of the wound and tried to extricate himself from the shooter.
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anchises868
eminently reasonable, never extreme
04:07 PM on 04/15/2012
Who knows whether he will be convicted? That all comes down to who's the better lawyer.

Justice is (by definition) served by the trial itself, not by the verdict and certainly not by the sentencing. I think most people have a fundamental misunderstanding of the distinction between justice and vengeance. I was happy when Zimmerman was arrested because now justice can be served. Once the trial is over it will have been. The people who want to see him railroaded into a cell for the rest of their life may have Trayvon's memory and Zimmerman's punishment at heart, and those are worthy goals, but not let's not delude ourselves into thinking that is what justice is.
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elgeezr
09:28 PM on 04/15/2012
Great post! Faved
03:34 PM on 04/15/2012
Zimmerman will not be convicted of 2nd degree murder, I'm hoping the prosecutor is just setting up a negotiating.
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BlairCase
04:26 PM on 04/15/2012
Overcharging is a common tactic, but it's still prosecutorial misconduct.
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elgeezr
09:32 PM on 04/15/2012
I am convinced that he cannot be convicted of murder. And if that charge is simply a prosecutor's negotiating tactic it's reprehensible. I keep remembering the State of Florida vs Cacey. Overcharging did if for that case.
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02:22 PM on 04/15/2012
What's most infuriating about this incident has been the lack of remorse, sorrow, or regret by George Zimmerman and his supporters. Regardless of a conviction I can only see two possible outcomes. If he's convicted someone will take out vigilante justice on him while he's serving his sentence behind bars. If he isn't convicted someone will take out vigilante justice on him no matter where he is or what he is doing. George Zimmerman ended his own life the moment he pulled the trigger.
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08:16 PM on 04/15/2012
You've already convicted him, as have many others. The facts haven't been established. Just maybe he has a valid self defense in which case the only remorse he should express is the fact that he was forced to kill someone. If he's found guilty, he'll be sentenced. But first, let's let the trial proceed before we pronounce judgment.