Obama Bomaye!

"He's got to hit back," experts implore. "He's losing!" cry observers. Punishment is delivered over and over by a tough opponent, virtually unopposed by the brash and formerly confident competitor. Having survived bruising contests to get to the main event, concerns rise that he's lost his toughness, that an inability or unwillingness to attack will doom him against a hard-hitting opponent.

The scene, of course, is Zaire, 1974. George Foreman, a fearsome puncher and overwhelming favorite, had Muhammad Ali on the ropes from the beginning of their legendary "Rumble in the Jungle," and Ali put himself squarely in Foreman's sights, literally taunting Forman to hit him harder. It seemed a crazy strategy -- most boxers simply cannot survive the pounding of leaning back against the ropes and taking punch after punch. But Ali was working from a well-designed strategy, and he had the skill and the endurance to make sure the punches just barely missed their intended target. The glove instead of the eye; the temple instead of the jaw. Ali realized that if he could tire Foreman, get Foreman to punch and chase himself out of energy, he would have an opening. Viewers, perhaps especially the experts, were horrified that Ali refused to go on the attack in the initial rounds.

Through those early rounds, Ali did little to counter Foreman's onslaught, except for the intermittent jab or straight right to the face of an increasingly agitated Foreman. As the rounds dragged on, though, Foreman became visibly exhausted - and when Foreman threw everything he had at Ali early on and none of it worked, Ali made his move. Foreman, taxed by Ali's few but precisely landed early shots and drained from his movement and punches, was vulnerable to an increasingly aggressive Ali, who landed combinations in the later rounds. Eventually Ali went in for the knockout in the eighth, using a left hook to set up a straight right to Foreman's face, dropping him to the mat and ending the fight. Ali later dubbed this strategy the "rope-a-dope."

Senator Barack Obama does not seem to be angling for the political equivalent of a decision in the presidential race. His campaign is looking strategically over the coming months, recognizing that the campaign is just now moving past the early rounds, with "swing" voters still largely tuned out. Rather than letting loose his full arsenal, he is letting McCain punch himself out -- and McCain, like Foreman before him, is falling right into the trap. As long as McCain keeps diving to the gutter, he is neutralizing his most valuable attribute: a reputation for honesty and integrity. Meanwhile, as McCain destroys his own brand, Obama is dodging the punches. McCain and his surrogates are trying a new negative narrative practically every week, but according to the polls, nothing is sticking. Inexperienced, uppity, elitist, unpatriotic -- these rotating smears all fit under the general umbrella of "Other," but despite this barrage, the Obama campaign is deflecting the blows, readying themselves for the late rounds, the time that really matters.

It would be different, of course, if McCain were landing his punches. If Obama were trailing in the polls, if the narratives had erased his lead, he could not afford to lean back against the ropes. But McCain is throwing everything he can think of and Obama isn't even behind in the polls. There has been, admittedly, a small but measurable shift in the national numbers, with McCain narrowing the deficit from five or six to two or three, roughly, but overwrought pundits are underplaying the strategic angle. It's understandable, as the story of the race is one of consistency and stability, neither of which increase TV ratings or newspaper circulation, so to make it interesting we have a constant Obama falter watch.

When pundits and commentators make hyperventilating claims about Obama's alleged campaign appeasement, it is vital to note that Obama has played this game before. It's not that he won't hit back -- even in the rope-a-dope it's important to mix in a few shots in the early rounds -- but those who are calling for an all-out assault against McCain have short memories; some of the same observers were saying the same thing when Obama trailed Senator Clinton in the Democratic primary. In that contest his campaign proved its ability to wait for the right moment, which should have earned it the benefit of the doubt for the current race. Obama has an unprecedented amount of money, an unprecedented ground game, and virtually all the fundamentals are in his favor. With all that going for him, progressives should be cheering that he seems to be playing for the eventual knockout, rather than calling for him to lower himself to meet McCain in the dirt for the short-term benefits.

Democrats learned an important lesson about fighting back in 2004 when Senator Kerry thought ignoring the shameful "Swift Boat" attacks would disarm them; this is not an exhortation to turn the other cheek, but rather to recognize the importance of time and place. In boxing and in politics, when an opponent is overreaches, it is vital to choose the right moment to counter. Ironically, Senator McCain is a self-described boxing fanatic, and someone with his appreciation for the sweet science should recognize the danger of punching so hard so early. Having thrown roundhouse shots this early (his immediately infamous claim that Obama is choosing to lose a war to win an election comes to mind), he'll likely have nothing left when the critical moments arrive.

Meanwhile, Obama has slipped in well-aimed shots occasionally, like Ali did in the early rounds, as with his recent "Original" ad, tying McCain to President Bush. Even as I wrote this piece over the past few days, the campaign's ads are increasingly tough on McCain, and the intensity will only increase after the convention. Some early hits are important to land occasionally, to further soften McCain's image, but an onslaught from Obama over the summer would have only served to tarnish his own reputation -- and without the benefit of having swing voters yet paying attention.

Even if Obama does not play it exactly right, he's still likely to win. But so much the better if he can head into office as a politician who didn't go negative early and often, who won on the strength of his ideas and his character rather than by dragging his opponent through the mud. It's a risky strategy, to be sure, but patience is often rewarded, especially in the face of an aggressive opponent. Obama is relying on a strategy that has already worked once this cycle, this time against an opponent who is increasingly flailing and desperate. In September and October, in the late campaign rounds, the knockout blow will come.

Comments

[jsk1]

Hehehe, thanks earlier posters for giving me this to dream about tonight:

Obama-Kusinich '08

Hmmm.

[jmpurser]

That's Kucinich-Obama!

[plafayette]

This is my new tee-shirt slogan

Got Despiration (McCain)?
Get CHANGE!
OBAMA 08

If you use it..please flag me favorite and give a girl some cred

[hanna08]

AJ makes a very crucial point, that no one from the MSM has pointed out:

McCain is, presumably, the "safe" and familiar candidate, someone who has earned adoration and respect from colleagues and the public for his record as a senator and a war veteran.

But, he has yet to take the lead in most polls. Although he is inching up day by day, conventional wisdom and inane punditocracy would lead to assume that he would have a major lead.

If the media feels its their obligation to accuse Obama of failing to "seal the deal", then it's only fair of accusing McCain of the same failure.

[Dustee]

I've been saying that for the longest time now.

[jayded]

I've been saying this all along....people said the same exact thing about Obama last summer when he was trailing Hillary 50-25....then when it counted, his whole operation went into full effect and overwhelmed Clinto

[lavisiter]

That's right, jayded!!!! Barack Obama had his staff deviously draw on the "race card" for his own personal GAIN and regardless of how it could and would divide America if he lost this election! Ignoring and invalidating the obvious and huge progress this country has gratefully made on the issues of race and as clearly seen in the success of his candidacy!

And now, he is drawing on the "CLASS" card to beat up the American dream that many people draw on - every single day as HOPE for better days?!

[RGray]

lavisiter,

You are so uninformed, not to mention incorrect. You must be a no-information voter.

[Silveus]

If by race card, do you mean defending against the entire MSM incessantly hounding Jeremiah Wright and Obama by association, on the basis of their race and Wright's constitutionally protected speech?

Your comments about the American dream are funny. A dose of Robert Reich might put your views in perspective. Hope lies in changing the status quo, and the status quo is your faulty "American dream" that glorifies the misadventures of the ruthless at the expense of the working class, embracing them and whispering sweet nothings into their ear about material wealth at the end of a life of hard work while brandishing a knife behind their back.

You're a bitter fraud.

[JNagarya]

The Republican/Party of Racism "American Dream" "economics":

1. Spend all your savings,

2. Quit your job, and,

3. Your income will INCREASE.

What that Party requires of those outside the mega-wealthy minority to which they limit the meaing of "American people":

Cut your own throat -- but buy the knife with which to do that YOURSELF. That Party isn't about to buy the knife for you.

[Donald Wolberg]

As I remember, Ms Clinton was victorius in the majority of real primary battles and Mr. obama did well in caucus states. Of more interest is that the news reports that he has witdrawn adds in several of those caucus states he won, because he is so far behind in the polls such as Montana and Alaska and others. This adds support to thew view that his primary victories are an artifact of how the Party apportions delegates and the caucus system.

[jmundstuk]

Don't see it.

[guajiro]

What I wanna hear Obama say is: " Do you want 4 more years of Bush or do you want 4 more years of Democrat rule when the economy was strong, people had jobs, we had a surplus in the bank and we weren't always at war?" Seems I haven't heard this quote from the candidate himself AT ALL this election.

[SilviaMaria]

Sometimes we forget the fact that Obama is running one of the best campaigns ever and his teams have every corner covered: they were ready to fire back to Corsi and his book in a matter of days.

This is war and you have to choose your battles.

[candyc]

We ALL need to stop second-guessing the Obama campaign. They haven't screwed up yet, and they probably won't. We're going to need to TRUST Obama when he's president, and we are going to have to trust him now.

[Pupadup4oBama]

Another great article comparing the boxing game.
I love it.
In regards to what we saw in the primaries against the Clinton machine - it seems people have the attention span of a flea - they can't remember what happened 2 weeks ago, let alone two months ago. Obama has already proven himself...people just need to sit back, relax, grab a tub of popcorn and enjoy the show...:)
Thanks again!

[cdub1991]

This article pretty much says what I've been arguing for the last few weeks--up to and including the boxing metaphor. Those who have been nervous about the strategy can start to relax, however. It's becoming clear that team Obama is about to release the hounds. I still think Obama should leave the mudslinging to his surrogates however and try to maintain his own narrative of staying positive and issue oriented. It might be a tad bit disingenous, but it preserves plausible deniability.

Since I'm able to hold contradictory ideas in my head at the same time, I'll contradict the last couple of sentences and say that I actually believe Obama really is serious about trying to change the nature of the political dialogue and he is doing it as part of a long term strategy--not just political idealism. In the same way the Willie Horton ad and Rovian tactics changed the nature of the game, if a major candidate can be made to pay a heavy price for negative campaigning, then it serves to change the dynamics of future elections by providing a technique for inoculating the public against such tactics. It allows for the conditioning of the voter to question every attempt at a smear and thereby makes them less effective. Let's face it, republicans are so ruthless that they are just better at that stuff. Have to take them out of their game somehow.

[SimonNZ]

Nice evocation of Norman Mailer. I hope you're right................

[TheImpaler]

The author is implying that Obama waits for later rounds to score a knock out by saying: “Senator Barack Obama does not seem to be angling for the political equivalent of a decision ‘. Also “McCain and his surrogates are trying a new negative narrative practically every week, but according to the polls, nothing is sticking.” The problem is that according to the pools things are beginning to stick. If this indeed is the strategy, it is a bad one! By attacking Obama on all fronts with impunity McCain is succeeding in tarnishing Obama’s brand. To use boxing analogy, McCain is going to the body which in turn will weaken Obama’s legs, making him weak and stationary for later rounds. Too weak to score that knock out in the later rounds. “Rumble in the Jungle” is a bad comparison all together. I think “Thrilla in Manila” is better one; fight all rounds; fight as if this is the last round you are ever going to fight! Waiting for your opponent to punch himself out borders on suicidal insanity if it is you that he is punching.

[SMP]

They have started with Ayers........................

MESSAGE TO ALL OBAMA SUPPORTERS


Blog loud and clear on every site you can a demand for COMPLETE disclosure of McCains war records.......every document ..................WE HAVE A RIGHT TO KNOW................The McCains have been proven liars..............lets see what else they have lied about

[Summer71]

All of the Chicken Littles out there need to read this post.
Thanks, AJ.

[rbloom]

The analogy would work if McCain was giving it all he has. But he's not; he's jabbing. The Reeps haven't trotted out Rev. Wright, Ayers, or the youthful indiscretions (i.e. drugs) described in Obama's books.
I do hope that Obama hits McCain and hits him hard during the convention and going forward. But I don't think that McCain has spent all his ammunition. Not by a long shot.
This is going to go 15 rounds, and there will be blood.

[nomobull]

where have you been

[plafayette]

rbloom...the repugs have trotted out Wright, Rezco, Ayers and Hillary...That my dear pretty much sums it all up. The thing is the stuff about Wright is wrong on Obama and old worn out non-news. The Rezco deal has been probed to it's depths and there is noting damning there against Obama..or Hillary would have used it to save herself, believe me. Ayers, well that is just plain stupid. The man (Obama) was a child when this grown a$$ man was running around playing revolutionary. It would fall to the government to protect the public from a dangerous man (Ayers) if that man is indeed unrepentant. Obama could possibly sue the government for failing to protect him and/or his reputation from someone like this. Who let Ayers out or failed to put him in? Baby Obama? I don't think so. Got despiration? Get CHANGE!

[Jazz42]

Mr Rossmller
A great article.
I completely agree.
Thank you,