Obama Bomaye!
"He's got to hit back," experts implore. "He's losing!" cry observers. Punishment is delivered over and over by a tough opponent, virtually unopposed by the brash and formerly confident competitor. Having survived bruising contests to get to the main event, concerns rise that he's lost his toughness, that an inability or unwillingness to attack will doom him against a hard-hitting opponent.
The scene, of course, is Zaire, 1974. George Foreman, a fearsome puncher and overwhelming favorite, had Muhammad Ali on the ropes from the beginning of their legendary "Rumble in the Jungle," and Ali put himself squarely in Foreman's sights, literally taunting Forman to hit him harder. It seemed a crazy strategy -- most boxers simply cannot survive the pounding of leaning back against the ropes and taking punch after punch. But Ali was working from a well-designed strategy, and he had the skill and the endurance to make sure the punches just barely missed their intended target. The glove instead of the eye; the temple instead of the jaw. Ali realized that if he could tire Foreman, get Foreman to punch and chase himself out of energy, he would have an opening. Viewers, perhaps especially the experts, were horrified that Ali refused to go on the attack in the initial rounds.
Through those early rounds, Ali did little to counter Foreman's onslaught, except for the intermittent jab or straight right to the face of an increasingly agitated Foreman. As the rounds dragged on, though, Foreman became visibly exhausted - and when Foreman threw everything he had at Ali early on and none of it worked, Ali made his move. Foreman, taxed by Ali's few but precisely landed early shots and drained from his movement and punches, was vulnerable to an increasingly aggressive Ali, who landed combinations in the later rounds. Eventually Ali went in for the knockout in the eighth, using a left hook to set up a straight right to Foreman's face, dropping him to the mat and ending the fight. Ali later dubbed this strategy the "rope-a-dope."
Senator Barack Obama does not seem to be angling for the political equivalent of a decision in the presidential race. His campaign is looking strategically over the coming months, recognizing that the campaign is just now moving past the early rounds, with "swing" voters still largely tuned out. Rather than letting loose his full arsenal, he is letting McCain punch himself out -- and McCain, like Foreman before him, is falling right into the trap. As long as McCain keeps diving to the gutter, he is neutralizing his most valuable attribute: a reputation for honesty and integrity. Meanwhile, as McCain destroys his own brand, Obama is dodging the punches. McCain and his surrogates are trying a new negative narrative practically every week, but according to the polls, nothing is sticking. Inexperienced, uppity, elitist, unpatriotic -- these rotating smears all fit under the general umbrella of "Other," but despite this barrage, the Obama campaign is deflecting the blows, readying themselves for the late rounds, the time that really matters.
It would be different, of course, if McCain were landing his punches. If Obama were trailing in the polls, if the narratives had erased his lead, he could not afford to lean back against the ropes. But McCain is throwing everything he can think of and Obama isn't even behind in the polls. There has been, admittedly, a small but measurable shift in the national numbers, with McCain narrowing the deficit from five or six to two or three, roughly, but overwrought pundits are underplaying the strategic angle. It's understandable, as the story of the race is one of consistency and stability, neither of which increase TV ratings or newspaper circulation, so to make it interesting we have a constant Obama falter watch.
When pundits and commentators make hyperventilating claims about Obama's alleged campaign appeasement, it is vital to note that Obama has played this game before. It's not that he won't hit back -- even in the rope-a-dope it's important to mix in a few shots in the early rounds -- but those who are calling for an all-out assault against McCain have short memories; some of the same observers were saying the same thing when Obama trailed Senator Clinton in the Democratic primary. In that contest his campaign proved its ability to wait for the right moment, which should have earned it the benefit of the doubt for the current race. Obama has an unprecedented amount of money, an unprecedented ground game, and virtually all the fundamentals are in his favor. With all that going for him, progressives should be cheering that he seems to be playing for the eventual knockout, rather than calling for him to lower himself to meet McCain in the dirt for the short-term benefits.
Democrats learned an important lesson about fighting back in 2004 when Senator Kerry thought ignoring the shameful "Swift Boat" attacks would disarm them; this is not an exhortation to turn the other cheek, but rather to recognize the importance of time and place. In boxing and in politics, when an opponent is overreaches, it is vital to choose the right moment to counter. Ironically, Senator McCain is a self-described boxing fanatic, and someone with his appreciation for the sweet science should recognize the danger of punching so hard so early. Having thrown roundhouse shots this early (his immediately infamous claim that Obama is choosing to lose a war to win an election comes to mind), he'll likely have nothing left when the critical moments arrive.
Meanwhile, Obama has slipped in well-aimed shots occasionally, like Ali did in the early rounds, as with his recent "Original" ad, tying McCain to President Bush. Even as I wrote this piece over the past few days, the campaign's ads are increasingly tough on McCain, and the intensity will only increase after the convention. Some early hits are important to land occasionally, to further soften McCain's image, but an onslaught from Obama over the summer would have only served to tarnish his own reputation -- and without the benefit of having swing voters yet paying attention.
Even if Obama does not play it exactly right, he's still likely to win. But so much the better if he can head into office as a politician who didn't go negative early and often, who won on the strength of his ideas and his character rather than by dragging his opponent through the mud. It's a risky strategy, to be sure, but patience is often rewarded, especially in the face of an aggressive opponent. Obama is relying on a strategy that has already worked once this cycle, this time against an opponent who is increasingly flailing and desperate. In September and October, in the late campaign rounds, the knockout blow will come.
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I'm one of those people who have been calling for Obama to get more agressive. I've seen these Republican tactics work against our candidates since 1968, so pardon my nervous hand wringing.
I think your article has many good points in it, and I still believe Obama will win. The problem with the boxing theory is, that in politics, it is defining your opponent early in the minds of people that gives you a strong advantage. If people have decided they don't like a candidate a month or two before the election, he'd better have one hell of a knockout blow in waiting.
I'm very happy to say now, that Obama's really starting to get fired up! He's beginning to take the sheen and luster off of McCains hero persona. THAT'S the fighter I've been counting on in Obama, and I'm glad to see him back in the ring swinging!
and he managed it without sinking to their level .
It is not that we want him to crawl into the gutter with McCain, we just want him to factually hold McCain accountable for his words. McCain hiding his support for Iraq using the surge for an example. McCain's net worth in excess of 100Million and those 7-10 houses he claims he doesnt know about or how about McCain constantly falling behind his POW status, or better yet his elitist attitude being explained away by the fact that he was a POW.
Some one has to hold McCain accountable, the MSM, particularily CNN will NOT. They are all cowards and in my opinion racists, because if Obama was a white man he would not be hammered as much as he is by the MSM.
like he has been doing . just not being covered by the msm which is why they are not a reliable source .
"It's a risky strategy, to be sure, but patience is often rewarded, especially in the face of an aggressive opponent."
It's centrism.
Was our patience rewarded in October 2002? Our opponent was aggressive then.
Was our patience rewarded in 2004, when Kerry ran an atrocious campaign, with the debate completely controlled by the aggressive GOP?
Was it rewarded in 2007, after the Democrats took Congress?
When was there any accountability?
When did they once attack the enemy?
Tax cuts for billionaires, a trillion-dollar profiteering war on lies, a ten-trillion dollar debt, 50 million Americans without health care, stagnation of income, energy-driven inflation, torture, illegal spying, a thousand other ills--has our patience been rewarded?
Forget putting impeachment "off the table"--the centrists have caved on _every_ issue, and have never once attacked, even when the enemy was most vulnerable.
Why should we have patience for another mushy centrist getting pummeled by another cartelist plutocrat?
If this centrist gambit fails, will you ask us to be patient in 2010?
We don't want a centrist asking us to be "patient."
We don't want someone to fudge and triangulate and risk all on a counterintuitive gamble.
We want someone who will fight for US, not for himself, and like he means it.
Someone who will attack the plutocrats and the industrial cartels and the ultra rich for their abuses of government to squeeze working Americans.
We need a Roosevelt.
It's called fighting smart.
I don't want someone going in there on a suicide mission, only to be cut to ribbons ala Feingold or Kucinich. They are admirable but not very smart when it comes to winning back the WH and the government and getting things done for the people.
I am really, really, really, tired of losing while also feeling moral and superior because I know I was "right". Then watching the society around me going to h*ll.
I want someone who believes what I do about war/peace and diplomacy and diversity and fairness and the economy and womens' rights and the middle class. I want someone who fights smart.
Obama '08
"I am really, really, really, tired of losing while also feeling moral and superior because I know I was "right". Then watching the society around me going to h*ll."
$#@!&!!!!
Roses, in case you didn't notice, the people who were right and unhappy were the PROGRESSIVES. The centrists mocked us and patronized us and voted for the Iraq War and put impeachment off the table and told us to go to hell and then told us to be patient. The people who are to blame for the losses are not the people who were right, but the people who silenced us, made every mistake, betrayed every principle, sold out the Constitution--and then lost.
"I don't want someone going in there on a suicide mission, only to be cut to ribbons ala Feingold or Kucinich."
What suicide mission? The people who cut the Feingolds to ribbons are the centrists and their nitwit supporters
Fighting smart?
Just what did the centrists do that was smart in the last 8 years?
How is Obama different from any other centrist?
Roses - I hear you loud and clear.
This WIDE Spread Notion That Obama is lymping, too soft, not fighting back hard, we dont know him, he is not one of us. These are all Right Wing Originated Talking Points That Democrats on Tv and in Print Media Continue to help fuel, instead of dismissing that immediately in a strong and unified manner!
WISE-UP Dem! We Switch Over To Help Obama Win NOT Loose!
***********Watch "Seven," and SEE WHO IS OUT OF TOUCH with Ordinary Americans!!
CLICK> http://my.
A Republicans supporting Sen. Obama, we are stunn at how foolish some Democrats are in helping to fan Right Wing SwiftBoating "Talking Points"!
This WIDE Spread Notion That Obama is lymping, too soft, not fighting back hard, we dont know him, he is not one of us. These are all Right Wing Originated Talking Points That Democrats on Tv and in Print Media Continue to help fuel, instead of dismissing that immediately in a strong and unified manner!
WISE-UP Dem! We Switch Over To Help Obama Win NOT Loose!
***********Watch "Seven," and SEE WHO IS OUT OF TOUCH with Ordinary Americans!!
CLICK> http://my.
Absolutely! I think the problem with Democrats is that they have bought in the Republican/media frame of how to win. Al Gore did not loose. Kathryn Harris and the Supremes stole the election. John Kerry did not loose. Ken Blackwell stole Ohio. Instead of going around acting like chicken little, what real progressives (Democrats, Independents, and Republicans) should be doing is rolling up their sleeves and going to work to ensure that America will not endure the continuation of George Bush's idiotic policies championed by John McCain. This election is not all about what Obama does. It is also about what each one of us is determined to do. If all the dooms sayers spent all their energy fighting back against the smears of the McCain campaign, victory for Obama would be ensured. So enough of the "sky is falling" panic attacks masquerading as concerned advice to, or reasoned critiques of, the Obama campaign. It is a true axiom that "action without thought is blind." But an equally valid axiom is that "thought without action is empty." The challenge to all the people who are ready to advise Obama on what to do is: what are you doing to back up your ideas and to ensure the defeat of John McCain? For me the plan is to register new voters.
Welcome aboard, my friend.
I think the problem is Dems have been so complacent and so afraid to fight - now we feel we HAVE a fighter but he won't "finish the job". (although I am not one of those that feels this way)
They've obviously never heard - slow n' steady wins the race.
This is refreshing to see.
With so many people excited about Obama, it is sad to see people have so little faith in him.
He's a poker player. He's all about strategy. I trust he knows what he's doing and will start pummeling faces when the time is right. It's only August and already McCain is tripping all over himself. Meanwhile, Obama is building an unbeatable ground game and playing his hand close to the chest.
It is fascinating to watch him work (and funny to see how the media simply cannot comprehend a long game).
I don't think it's about comprehending. It is about manufacturing false fears for ratings.
Obama '08
Did you read that TIME article about the candidates gambling preferences? Very telling!
Exactly, poker and boxing both rely on strategic long game thinking. so does being a commander in chief. You can't go all out straight away - you need to draw your opponent out, draw them out so that they make mistakes and when they are at their weakest - you pounce!
Certainly Obama is a great strategic thinker and it is obvious that McCain is not.
I think October is going to be a very interesting month.
But before that time all Dems, Independants and Cross over republicans need to be strong and push back every time a smear or Rethug talking point comes up. Rather than wait for Obama to come out strong on every point as he isn't going to (he is playing long) - each supporter can do something every day by refusing to byuy into the Right wing and neo-con smears and MSM ratings grabs by pushing back - it will cut the legs from the issues making McCain weaker which will give Obama his Knock Out opening sooner.
If anyone has listened closely to Obama's speeches and books it is that he is an agent of change only in as much that he inspires people to enact change for themselves - and all the chicken little nay syaers in August would do well to remember that - you will only get true progressive change if you go out and fight for it yourself everyday in all situations.
I agree that Democrats shouldn’t press the panic button – a lot of the reporting is dubious “trend” analysis. But one must be careful to note the boxing analogy’s limitations. What we’re talking about isn’t bodies absorbing physical shocks – a boxer can take an awful lot of such damage and come back swinging. What we’re talking about is “psychological blows”; i.e. the effects of bogus, outrageous claims aimed at semi-informed or uninformed potential voters. And there’s some evidence that Republican slime operations are not only effective in the short term but also in the longer term: once people start hearing that your candidate is a radical, a foreigner, a Muslim, an elitist, etc., lots of them are never going to see that candidate in the same positive light again. What’s being peddled is cynicism, which offers the lazy voter a neat substitute for rational analysis and character assessment. So it’s vital not to let even contemptible attacks go unanswered, and vital to offer the additional blow of “metacritical” condemnation. Tell sleazy operatives loud and clear, “we know what you’re up to—here’s a play-by-play analysis of all the underhanded things you’ve said and done.” This gives people another way to be cynical, but on a topic that benefits your own candidate: the contemptible and dishonest maneuverings of the opponent. Finally, fighting back need not mean talking dishonorable trash about the opponent; it should mean responding forcefully, feelingly, and “real time” to misleading statements.
Agreed.
Here's what I do in my own little way. I get those viral e-mails sent out en masse from my friends. I then look up on snopes.com to get the latest information on them. I then hit the "reply all" button and send the snopes story to everyone who has received that viral sh*t. Everyone who wants Obama to succed needs to start answering back with the truth. We can't depend on our MSM to do it.
It really is up to us.
Obama '08
Thanks. Yes, I got one of those ridiculous emails a while back -- filled with exclamation-pointed offal and lurid leading questions. My first instinct was to send it to the trash, but instead I responded and called it paranoid, mean-spirited racist nonsense. The fact that this stuff actually works is in itself alarming. It is hardly possible for a communication to sink any lower in terms of literacy or ethics, and yet there must be millions who don't have enough sense to see through it. You don't need to be the Professor from Gilligan's Island to see this garbage for what it is; you just need to have the sense god gave a billy goat. Maybe we should give billy goats the franchise, then.... Billy goats may eat garbage, but at least they don't believe garbage!
Yes, when my friends and relatives send me viral, repug email/video--like the recent "Pilot" email circulating-- I've decided to send them back (and reply to all on their lists) a detailed, point-by-point refutation.
Just push back. At the least, it gets 'em to stop sending me this "$h1t."
You are either correct, or the American electorate has gotten even more dumbed down during Bush's term, taking after "Little Brother" himself in the brains department.
One would assume they would catch on at some point, but there sure is a lot of push back on Rightwing Radio. The shock jock hatemongerers there have done nothing but INCREASE their "assault on Reason" and they have a lot of followers.
Hence McCain's implausibly respectable numbers in polls.
Then there is always the Bradley Effect - that race will propel McCain to victory no matter what the polls say.
Already as lame and unprincipled a candidate ever nominated by either party, his campaign flails around from one lie and flip flop to another - getting on the bandwagon for the Surge, for oil-drilling and now "Let's bring back the Cold War."
Are people falling for it? I hope not.
I think the article is correct on the strategy, you are correct when you say that race will have a huge effect (more than most people are admitting) and McSame's campaign is consistently inconsistent. Oh, and the people are not as informed or "smart" because the MSM has cr*pped out. Which one will prevail??? Ahhhh.....
Obama '08
Wiki Bradley effect: compelling evidence that it's not true.
I still do not think Obama will win...not without going negative. It is time to "take the gloves off".
Very well stated. Thank you.
Most people must not be runners, because if they were they would know the stategies behind a marathon race.
Obama '08
Speaking of runners...
You can't beat a Kenyan in a race.
(sorry, couldn't resist)
One bad analogy after another. Amaturs!
This article is so right-on. Obama's "ground game" is little known and little understood, that is, what his campaign is doing right now solidfying early voters and early votes and fielding three times as many offices in contended states as Mc's people who are poo-pooing the idea and are not matching Obama's effort in these states. They have neither the heart nor the money to do so, and it is doubtful they could mount an effort to match Obama now even if they wanted too. They are now too short on time to achieve a good result. O has out-manuevered Mc in wrapping up the early votes. This is completely critical to winning this election and O is completely on top of this one, with hardly a notice from anyone in the press, thank goodness - just keep it quiet and effective and rolling on like a machine. It's like Hill writing-off the caucuses which contributed largely to her losing campaign. And don't forget, O is from Chicago. So he knows what rough and tumble politics is all about from way back. Don't kid yourself. O is waiting his time to drop the hammer.
Thanks AJ for a moment of sanity.
Obama is a genius at running campaigns. I trust him. I know he will win.
With the corrupt MSM feeding the public lies each and everyday, it can be a challenge to remember: You can't trust a pathological liar - in this case the msm.
You are the first I know of to comment that there may be a method to Obama's "madness." His approaches to challenges are so radically different - in a good way - than anything that's come before, that they are unrecognizable to most of us. Fortunately, he remains unflappable whether the criticism comes from right or left.
Brilliant post. Thanks for it.
Politics is not boxing. Your analogy doesn't work.
You've never run in a marathon have you? Or watched one? Competitions are competitions.
Why don't you look up "pacing" and "kick"? It would be informative.
Obama '08
Hi bugs....yo
I hate to point this out, but in the long term, Ali took way too many shots (as evidenced by his current condition), while Foreman can still make a living hawiing grills in T.V. commercials
The sky is falling, the sky is falling! The panic attacks should come as no surprise from a country full of people that take anti-depressants like it's candy.
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