Obama Bomaye!

"He's got to hit back," experts implore. "He's losing!" cry observers. Punishment is delivered over and over by a tough opponent, virtually unopposed by the brash and formerly confident competitor. Having survived bruising contests to get to the main event, concerns rise that he's lost his toughness, that an inability or unwillingness to attack will doom him against a hard-hitting opponent.

The scene, of course, is Zaire, 1974. George Foreman, a fearsome puncher and overwhelming favorite, had Muhammad Ali on the ropes from the beginning of their legendary "Rumble in the Jungle," and Ali put himself squarely in Foreman's sights, literally taunting Forman to hit him harder. It seemed a crazy strategy -- most boxers simply cannot survive the pounding of leaning back against the ropes and taking punch after punch. But Ali was working from a well-designed strategy, and he had the skill and the endurance to make sure the punches just barely missed their intended target. The glove instead of the eye; the temple instead of the jaw. Ali realized that if he could tire Foreman, get Foreman to punch and chase himself out of energy, he would have an opening. Viewers, perhaps especially the experts, were horrified that Ali refused to go on the attack in the initial rounds.

Through those early rounds, Ali did little to counter Foreman's onslaught, except for the intermittent jab or straight right to the face of an increasingly agitated Foreman. As the rounds dragged on, though, Foreman became visibly exhausted - and when Foreman threw everything he had at Ali early on and none of it worked, Ali made his move. Foreman, taxed by Ali's few but precisely landed early shots and drained from his movement and punches, was vulnerable to an increasingly aggressive Ali, who landed combinations in the later rounds. Eventually Ali went in for the knockout in the eighth, using a left hook to set up a straight right to Foreman's face, dropping him to the mat and ending the fight. Ali later dubbed this strategy the "rope-a-dope."

Senator Barack Obama does not seem to be angling for the political equivalent of a decision in the presidential race. His campaign is looking strategically over the coming months, recognizing that the campaign is just now moving past the early rounds, with "swing" voters still largely tuned out. Rather than letting loose his full arsenal, he is letting McCain punch himself out -- and McCain, like Foreman before him, is falling right into the trap. As long as McCain keeps diving to the gutter, he is neutralizing his most valuable attribute: a reputation for honesty and integrity. Meanwhile, as McCain destroys his own brand, Obama is dodging the punches. McCain and his surrogates are trying a new negative narrative practically every week, but according to the polls, nothing is sticking. Inexperienced, uppity, elitist, unpatriotic -- these rotating smears all fit under the general umbrella of "Other," but despite this barrage, the Obama campaign is deflecting the blows, readying themselves for the late rounds, the time that really matters.

It would be different, of course, if McCain were landing his punches. If Obama were trailing in the polls, if the narratives had erased his lead, he could not afford to lean back against the ropes. But McCain is throwing everything he can think of and Obama isn't even behind in the polls. There has been, admittedly, a small but measurable shift in the national numbers, with McCain narrowing the deficit from five or six to two or three, roughly, but overwrought pundits are underplaying the strategic angle. It's understandable, as the story of the race is one of consistency and stability, neither of which increase TV ratings or newspaper circulation, so to make it interesting we have a constant Obama falter watch.

When pundits and commentators make hyperventilating claims about Obama's alleged campaign appeasement, it is vital to note that Obama has played this game before. It's not that he won't hit back -- even in the rope-a-dope it's important to mix in a few shots in the early rounds -- but those who are calling for an all-out assault against McCain have short memories; some of the same observers were saying the same thing when Obama trailed Senator Clinton in the Democratic primary. In that contest his campaign proved its ability to wait for the right moment, which should have earned it the benefit of the doubt for the current race. Obama has an unprecedented amount of money, an unprecedented ground game, and virtually all the fundamentals are in his favor. With all that going for him, progressives should be cheering that he seems to be playing for the eventual knockout, rather than calling for him to lower himself to meet McCain in the dirt for the short-term benefits.

Democrats learned an important lesson about fighting back in 2004 when Senator Kerry thought ignoring the shameful "Swift Boat" attacks would disarm them; this is not an exhortation to turn the other cheek, but rather to recognize the importance of time and place. In boxing and in politics, when an opponent is overreaches, it is vital to choose the right moment to counter. Ironically, Senator McCain is a self-described boxing fanatic, and someone with his appreciation for the sweet science should recognize the danger of punching so hard so early. Having thrown roundhouse shots this early (his immediately infamous claim that Obama is choosing to lose a war to win an election comes to mind), he'll likely have nothing left when the critical moments arrive.

Meanwhile, Obama has slipped in well-aimed shots occasionally, like Ali did in the early rounds, as with his recent "Original" ad, tying McCain to President Bush. Even as I wrote this piece over the past few days, the campaign's ads are increasingly tough on McCain, and the intensity will only increase after the convention. Some early hits are important to land occasionally, to further soften McCain's image, but an onslaught from Obama over the summer would have only served to tarnish his own reputation -- and without the benefit of having swing voters yet paying attention.

Even if Obama does not play it exactly right, he's still likely to win. But so much the better if he can head into office as a politician who didn't go negative early and often, who won on the strength of his ideas and his character rather than by dragging his opponent through the mud. It's a risky strategy, to be sure, but patience is often rewarded, especially in the face of an aggressive opponent. Obama is relying on a strategy that has already worked once this cycle, this time against an opponent who is increasingly flailing and desperate. In September and October, in the late campaign rounds, the knockout blow will come.

Comments

[NABNYC]

18. All warfare is based on deception.

19. Hence, when able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must seem inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.

20. Hold out baits to entice the enemy. Feign disorder, and crush him.

21. If he is secure at all points, be prepared for him. If he is in superior strength, evade him.

22. If your opponent is of choleric temper, seek to irritate him. Pretend to be weak, that he may grow arrogant.

23. If he is taking his ease, give him no rest. If his forces are united, separate them.

24. Attack him where he is unprepared, appear where you are not expected.

From The Art of War

[escorpion]

I especially like #22. If Obama can get under McCain's skin during one of the debates, we might get a glimpse of McCain's legendary vicious temper. Won't that be fun!

[Heru1]

Yeah Sun Tzu. Thank you for raising the level of discourse beyond the guileless and reactionary "'he hit you hit him back' school of martial arts.

[NABNYC]

The reason Hillary so shamelessly got up in Obama's face to provoke him is because she knew that if he took a verbal punch at her, he would be attacked from all quarters based on that old racist sentiment about black men attacking white women. There's no fair comparison between Hillary and McCain.

McCain is walking around with his jaw out claiming he's John Wayne. Now is the time for Obama to start throwing punches, before he's dismissed as the schoolyard wimp.

The only possible acceptable reason for Obama's current fade is that it is strategic. See excerpts from The Art of War, posted separately.

[Bitsko]

You're forgetting that Senator 0bama said he wasn't going to play that old game. Isn't this campaign all about a new kind of politics? I'd hate to think it will be just kill and crush, like McCain's campaign. The majority of voters want to hear about solutions.

[Roses]

And then Obama eventually won against Hillary. The negative campaign feels "good" to the attackers, but then....ha­ve you ever heard of the last laugh?????


Obama '08

[CactusTom]

I suspect that many of us are hoping that something like this is Obama’a strategy, and that he is not just too much of a gentleman to play hardball with the old man. However, I still think Obama’s best attack strategy is to push ads filled with pictures of McCain constantly contradicting himself. McCain is after all his own worst enemy. But as Obama probably understands, it’s better to hold off on the big stuff until a majority of the electorate are paying attention.

[Roses]

He is, in certain targeted swing states he runs more negative TV commercials. In the national elections it is "feel good" TV commercials primarily from Obama's campaign. This is a brilliant strategy.

Obama '08

[dctackett]

This is exactly what I was thinking..­. it's too early to throw out his best shots, then he wouldn't have anything left, but "the same old comments".­.. in 1-2 months, people will still be hearing John McCain and Fox News/CNN saying the same thing... people have a short attention span and always need something new... that's why there are October surprises and not August surprises.­..

[naluca]

The irony is that if Obama had actually followed the idealistic model he pedaled in order to win in the early stages of the primaries, he'd be clobbering the opposition now. Instead, he wants it both ways - to claim the high road, yet make childish "attack" ads like counting McCain's houses. (Hoping no one will bring up his own lavish digs, financed in a manner which can only be seen as favoritism).

"Buyer's remorse" is putting it mildly: now we're stuck with this guy.

[cheforacle]

No buyer's remorse at all here. How do you know what would be happening now if he had campaigned differently now? Lavish digs? They look nice but hardly lavish. If HRC was the nominee, McCain would really be having a field day.

[strength]

I dont think his attack on the house topic is childish, or about the draft or about the 5 million dollar comment. Its all about what is in Mccains mind and those are things that should scare most people that make less than 5million

[Steve41313]

Translation: I'm a bitter Clinton supporter who still hasn't gotten over the fact that my girl lost.

[Roses]

People keep forgetting the outcome of the primary. OBAMA WON. (Pretty good for a "childish", favorite that is obviously doing illogical things as opposed to the mature, steadied wisdom of his opponents.­)

Get over it.


It really only matters what happens in November. The other pontificating doesn't really matter. Anyone can pull stuff out of their a**.

Obama '08

[Fabienne]

You're not stuck with this guy. Write-in Senator Clinton. I would certainly never vote for someone whom I had no belief in. As for the houses, it was McCain who brought them up and got the facts wrong, so they are certainly relevant. If one can't remember how many houses he has, how can he manage to govern an entire country? As for following an idealistic model, should we always just remain down in the garbage dump? With no ideals, we go nowhere good. Pragmatism may "win" elections but it loses a better future.

[TeMoinPennsylvania]

Exactly. A great article. Thank you for your clarity.

[makatak]

What a joy to read this post today! I have been having this exact converstion with a very close friend and committed Obama supporter. I even had this conversation today with my mom and sister. I have been reminding them during the course of this entire campaign cycle (primary and now the general) that Barack Obama has a specific, pointed, and targeted objective. In the primaries, the prize, the objective was winning the nomination which was based on delegates. In the general, the prize, the objective, is winning the presidency which is based on electoral college votes. A pointed, directed, MEASURED PLAN. Obama!!!!!

[ATL78]

Great piece! I remember reading that Axelrod has a picture of Ali in his office....

I recall many days, during the primaries, when I was "mad" at the O campaign. They pulled through then and I'm hoping and praying they do now!! I guess the difference is this; had he lost the primary we'd still have a chance with another Dem. If he loses the general, we're all doomed!!!!

[cadawa]

The Democrats must disabuse themselves of the idea that "rising above it all" is a winning strategy.
Failing to win the White House three times should be enough for anyone to learn such an important lesson.
Failure to publicly and repeatedly discredit the lies and innuendo of the right gives them life.
The Democrats have not earned the moral high ground and voters understand this even if the DLC don't.
Democratic corruption is on a par with the GOP. The Democrats have functioned as enablers for the GOP.
I am convinced that the reasons they don't hit back are the same reason they don't function as an opposition party; cowardice and greed.
Their failure to defend truth and honor is the primary reason the Democrats are not an attractive alternative.

[Fabienne]

Admittedly, there is little moral high ground when one speaks of politicians, but at least the Dems aren't down in the dumps as are the gops.

[Gdebs]

I hope you are right but some of us remember Dukakis, Gore and Kerry. They got hit and did not have much left at the end.
Obama has so much material to work with that if he loses it will be the worst loss of all.

[allonfla]

Ok, if you believe he has so much to work with, let him use it when the public is listening. I believe their was an article on here that said all the network ratings were at a record low right now because of the Olympics on NBC. Why do you think shows start their season in the fall ?vacations are over, school is in, weather in most places is getting cooler. The more McCain keeps talking, the more gaffes he racks up. AND gaffes that were made recently are more potent than gaffes made 5, 10, 15 or 20 years ago (i've seen some people trying to push that ape rape joke from the 80's). Obama is not Kerry, Gore or any other former "loser".

[kevinw]

They seem to be listening to McCain and his people. Or didn't anyone tell them about the ali bull yet.

[sdaflm]

I think this article puts it it to perspective for all of us who have been a little tense about the campaign. Obama and his stratigist are long range thinker which is how he got here in the first place. McCain is playing 20th century politics in a 21st century political environment. These poll number do not reflect the new voters, or the young voters who only have cell phones. The college campuses are ramped up to sign up new voters. So be patient...­..

Obama 08

[harvest9]

Your article certainly makes me feel better, and I hope your analysis is correct. I have a hunch it is. Depite little ticks and blips in certain polls, my sense is that McCain is indeed destroying his brand. The McCain supporters I know find his campaing tactics totally embarrassing. This may not swing them over to Obama, but they might stay home.

[DocTwain]

"Having thrown roundhouse shots this early (his immediately infamous claim that Obama is choosing to lose a war to win an election comes to mind), he'll likely have nothing left when the critical moments arrive."

Rossmiller, the boxing analogy doesn't work. People are ignorant. The attacks succeed even if they are lies--not on the first blow, but by repetition. (Remember the Administration's case for the war?) You delude yourself if you think McCain's "roundhouse punches" are hurting McCain more than Obama. Ignorant voters do not say, "that's an obvious lie"--if it is repeated enough, they begin to believe it: the doubt is raised, and rebuttal can't control the damage.

"But so much the better if he can head into office as a politician who didn't go negative early and often, who won on the strength of his ideas and his character rather than by dragging his opponent through the mud."

This is a centrist fallacy. McCain is _made_ of mud. Attack with a power hose! The Republicans have deliberately turned our government into a weapon of the industrial cartels against working Americans. There's nothing noble about the supply-siders. They're plutocratic extremists. Roosevelt's passionate populism would destroy them --attracting independents and Republicans. Weak centrism doesn't create a strong contrast; it gives no incentive to join or switch. Obama must take control through fierce attacks, put McCain on the defensive, and knock him out

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Very nice piece!

[jusasoldier]

Well written sir, great analogy.

[EllisDean]

What a great analogy! (Check out "When We Were Kings" for the Academy Award-winning documentary about the Ali-Frazier fight.) Obama might want to rent it himself. Ali won that fight by taking the punches (and drawing inspiration from the crowd and the entire nation, which he'd enlisted by using his charisma to build support in the weeks leading up to the fight), then coming out swinging. We all saw Obama lean on the ropes through the end of the Democratic primary, but we're still waiting for the hard counterpunches. I hope Obama can find some of Ali's killer instinct for the final rounds of this fight.