Obama Bomaye!

"He's got to hit back," experts implore. "He's losing!" cry observers. Punishment is delivered over and over by a tough opponent, virtually unopposed by the brash and formerly confident competitor. Having survived bruising contests to get to the main event, concerns rise that he's lost his toughness, that an inability or unwillingness to attack will doom him against a hard-hitting opponent.

The scene, of course, is Zaire, 1974. George Foreman, a fearsome puncher and overwhelming favorite, had Muhammad Ali on the ropes from the beginning of their legendary "Rumble in the Jungle," and Ali put himself squarely in Foreman's sights, literally taunting Forman to hit him harder. It seemed a crazy strategy -- most boxers simply cannot survive the pounding of leaning back against the ropes and taking punch after punch. But Ali was working from a well-designed strategy, and he had the skill and the endurance to make sure the punches just barely missed their intended target. The glove instead of the eye; the temple instead of the jaw. Ali realized that if he could tire Foreman, get Foreman to punch and chase himself out of energy, he would have an opening. Viewers, perhaps especially the experts, were horrified that Ali refused to go on the attack in the initial rounds.

Through those early rounds, Ali did little to counter Foreman's onslaught, except for the intermittent jab or straight right to the face of an increasingly agitated Foreman. As the rounds dragged on, though, Foreman became visibly exhausted - and when Foreman threw everything he had at Ali early on and none of it worked, Ali made his move. Foreman, taxed by Ali's few but precisely landed early shots and drained from his movement and punches, was vulnerable to an increasingly aggressive Ali, who landed combinations in the later rounds. Eventually Ali went in for the knockout in the eighth, using a left hook to set up a straight right to Foreman's face, dropping him to the mat and ending the fight. Ali later dubbed this strategy the "rope-a-dope."

Senator Barack Obama does not seem to be angling for the political equivalent of a decision in the presidential race. His campaign is looking strategically over the coming months, recognizing that the campaign is just now moving past the early rounds, with "swing" voters still largely tuned out. Rather than letting loose his full arsenal, he is letting McCain punch himself out -- and McCain, like Foreman before him, is falling right into the trap. As long as McCain keeps diving to the gutter, he is neutralizing his most valuable attribute: a reputation for honesty and integrity. Meanwhile, as McCain destroys his own brand, Obama is dodging the punches. McCain and his surrogates are trying a new negative narrative practically every week, but according to the polls, nothing is sticking. Inexperienced, uppity, elitist, unpatriotic -- these rotating smears all fit under the general umbrella of "Other," but despite this barrage, the Obama campaign is deflecting the blows, readying themselves for the late rounds, the time that really matters.

It would be different, of course, if McCain were landing his punches. If Obama were trailing in the polls, if the narratives had erased his lead, he could not afford to lean back against the ropes. But McCain is throwing everything he can think of and Obama isn't even behind in the polls. There has been, admittedly, a small but measurable shift in the national numbers, with McCain narrowing the deficit from five or six to two or three, roughly, but overwrought pundits are underplaying the strategic angle. It's understandable, as the story of the race is one of consistency and stability, neither of which increase TV ratings or newspaper circulation, so to make it interesting we have a constant Obama falter watch.

When pundits and commentators make hyperventilating claims about Obama's alleged campaign appeasement, it is vital to note that Obama has played this game before. It's not that he won't hit back -- even in the rope-a-dope it's important to mix in a few shots in the early rounds -- but those who are calling for an all-out assault against McCain have short memories; some of the same observers were saying the same thing when Obama trailed Senator Clinton in the Democratic primary. In that contest his campaign proved its ability to wait for the right moment, which should have earned it the benefit of the doubt for the current race. Obama has an unprecedented amount of money, an unprecedented ground game, and virtually all the fundamentals are in his favor. With all that going for him, progressives should be cheering that he seems to be playing for the eventual knockout, rather than calling for him to lower himself to meet McCain in the dirt for the short-term benefits.

Democrats learned an important lesson about fighting back in 2004 when Senator Kerry thought ignoring the shameful "Swift Boat" attacks would disarm them; this is not an exhortation to turn the other cheek, but rather to recognize the importance of time and place. In boxing and in politics, when an opponent is overreaches, it is vital to choose the right moment to counter. Ironically, Senator McCain is a self-described boxing fanatic, and someone with his appreciation for the sweet science should recognize the danger of punching so hard so early. Having thrown roundhouse shots this early (his immediately infamous claim that Obama is choosing to lose a war to win an election comes to mind), he'll likely have nothing left when the critical moments arrive.

Meanwhile, Obama has slipped in well-aimed shots occasionally, like Ali did in the early rounds, as with his recent "Original" ad, tying McCain to President Bush. Even as I wrote this piece over the past few days, the campaign's ads are increasingly tough on McCain, and the intensity will only increase after the convention. Some early hits are important to land occasionally, to further soften McCain's image, but an onslaught from Obama over the summer would have only served to tarnish his own reputation -- and without the benefit of having swing voters yet paying attention.

Even if Obama does not play it exactly right, he's still likely to win. But so much the better if he can head into office as a politician who didn't go negative early and often, who won on the strength of his ideas and his character rather than by dragging his opponent through the mud. It's a risky strategy, to be sure, but patience is often rewarded, especially in the face of an aggressive opponent. Obama is relying on a strategy that has already worked once this cycle, this time against an opponent who is increasingly flailing and desperate. In September and October, in the late campaign rounds, the knockout blow will come.

Comments

[certainot]

progressives must remember to include the GOP talk radio juggernaut in their strategizing. that was kerry's real mistake. that is where the groundwork is done for their attacks and obama and progressives must not ignore those below the belt attacks just because listening to talk radio gives them a headache. that would be the same mistake gore and kerry made that allowed the GOP to define them and keep the races close.

[PrinceHal]

Oh, gee. Sure. Obama and Muhammad Ali. McCain and Joe Frazier

Sure. Wait until McCain "punches himself out" like Frazier, then land the big one. Sure. Very smart.

Except . . . the whole idea of McCain's "punching himself out" is patently ridiculous. He's not going to tire in the later rounds. Are you kidding? Tire from what? Flapping his lips?

So you think he's not landing his punches, eh? You mean because he hasn't sold you?

I don't get it, Mr. Rossmiller. I'm still hyperventilating. Now would be the best time for Obama to hit back. Later on would be good too. And in the middle, ditto.

That strategy of yours sounds like something Karl Rove would heartily approve of . . . but for Obama only, not his guy.

[preachergirl]

Finally, someone who understands that game recognizes game. It's quite amazing to watch how many keep underestimating Obama. He's more, "I can show you better than I can tell you". Talk is cheap and the republicans, the MSM and radio are talking their proverbal heads off and punching playing themselves "right" into a punch drunk stupor. I'm enjoying this fight as much as any Ali fight. Any fight fan should know that a fight is won with your head and not your fist.

You Go AJ. I love how you think. Can anyone say David vs. Goliath!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[kevinw]

Sorry to spoil your fantasy, but Obama is yet to land a punch. He would not be the first fighter to wait till it was to late and got knocked out. You are hoping he has a punch hidden there that he will pull out and surprise everyone, the problem is you are just hoping here. This is his first real fight.

[LABC]

This is me giving you a high-five - the BEST article I have read on HuffPost today! Thank you!!

[JinChicago]

try since obama beat hillary (at least oped wise). kudos!

[december30]

Thank you, thank you AJ

[Lauramae]

Being tough on your opponent and drawing distinct differences between you and the other guy isn't negative, it's strategy.

The danger of waiting for the right moment is that voters will start believing the horse pucky that McCain is dishing out. Unanswered lies tend to become the "truth" in voters minds. The Obama campaign should also be familiar with this given the list of untruths it has had to counter since he started running. And the favorite retort to the untruths by conservatives is that "Obama is essentially a blank slate."

Waiting for the right moment to punch back may be an elegant strategy but it is also a risky one. Being strong and tough isn't necessarily negative, but instead it can be simply be one of clarity. Firm conviction, even. When you look over the past presidents and the times that they sounded the strongest, it was during those times of pointed clarity.

[static313]

Thank God there are some who aren't acting like the world is ending in August because of some skewed stats. Remember, he took down one of the strongest political machines in recent memory in the primaries, and even when he was out of reach on that you still had media outlets and pundits exclaiming about the close race and how tight it is instead of calling it. Stop acting like New York Knick fans with all this doom and gloom, it's just August.

[reshas1]

First, the Republicans have a great deal of ammunition left to fire. They really have not unloaded their main attacks yet, settling for more limited hits on Obama's celebrity status. When they unload attack ads focusing on Obama's tax program and on his naïveté, they are likely to score big. Second, each time an Obama bounce dissipates, voters must get more and more inured to the experience. An immunity will develop that will make voters less and less susceptible to his charisma. In any event, the convention will be Obama's last opportunity to speak with his beloved teleprompter. After that he's on his own!

[SurrealPumpkin]

That's the point though, by the time the McCain machine loads the "main attack" he will be firing from a tarnished position. As in "Oh, no, here we go again".

There is something poetic about competance blocking negativity. Cordiality wins in the end.

[SurrealPumpkin]

By the way, why are we using war metaphors? Why not fishing?

McCain is lashing the water and chasing the fish away. Obama, sitting quietly will have a better chance of hooking them.

ok, it's a terrible metaphor. Will someone please try for a better one?

[escorpion]

Obama's at bat. McCain's pitching, and throwing fastballs right at his head. Instead of charging the mound, Obama smiles patiently and returns to the plate, knowing that sooner or later, Mc will have to serve up a strike, right over the plate. And when he does...IT'S OUTTA HERE!!!

[Fabienne]

reshas, thanks for your ""wisdom". Obviously, you know it all. Except that Obama often works without a teleprompter, McCain seldom even though the latter looks like he does since he can't even manage speaking well with a teleprompter.

[PATina]

While I like your analogy... the one thing Ali didn't do is run and give Foreman water to make sure he'd make it to the next round. Sen O seems hell bent on helping Mc Cain defeat him. When Gen. Clark stated that Sen. Mc Cain's service didn't automatically qualify Mc Cain to be president... Sen O jumped to Mc Cain's defense. Even when the present admin starting moving towards his positions on the war (timetable/horizon... adding troops to Afghanistan)... he's could have at least said, "Looks like my judgment was right all along". But no... he let's Mc Cain question is judgment/patriotism and all he can say is "please stop". That's what I fear is going to cost him the election... not staying true to his positions (FISA, off shore drilling), not standing up for his people (Wes Clark) and allowing the other side to dictate the campaign (which he'll still do if he does get in the dirt w/ Mc Cain... that's Mc Cain's and the Republicans natural habitat).

[masterdub]

You're spot on PATina! Gen. Clark spoke truth and BO left him out to dry. I think he's "honored" McSame's "honorable" service enough-- if you call graduating near the bottom of your class & crashing 5 military aircraft & being captured by the VC honorable. BO needs to exploit Pres. Jr's & McSame's mis-statements and flip-flops on the stump and in the ads by using the actual video/audio showing their pervasive ignorance.

[Fabienne]

He says way more than "please stop" about his patriotism being questioned. Are you listening to what he is saying?

[mesut]

great analogy. I'm a female and I have to admit during the primaries I wanted him to take a "swing" time or two. I also have to weed through all the "chatter' and form my opinion based on what I "hear" and not what the media expects me to "hear"

[cackal]

This brilliant strategy is why Ali is The Greatest! And it is absolutely the strategy the Obama campaign should stick with.

[meanguy]

he's got moveon.org and the unions doing his smearing for him...obama has always been the 'above it all on the outside, let my surrogates cut your hamstrings while i profess to be shocked, shocked! at such goings -on' kind of candidate.

[Kenji]

Smearing? I don't think that word means what you think it means.

[greeniefromOH]

Great! I'll make another donation to MoveOn.org!

I'm happy to cut hamstrings. ;)

[SatinPanties]

Here's to you being right!

[Yasmine]

OBAMA has 2 attributes that make him the UNDERDOG all the way to the election

1- his RACE 2- his AGE ( being not known)
Of course his supporters LIKE these 2 attributes..........but McCain is trying to make him look risky
just like Clinton's rolling the dice and fairy tale line!!

LET THE FAIRY TALE WIN !!

[dsgeorge]

yes, breathe in, breathe out. He beat the Clinton machine, he can beat the angry old man.

[AmHope]

Very thought-provoking article. Thanks.
I remember "Rumble in the Jungle" (what a fight!) and hope you're right.
So I'll calm down (not swear at the tv so much), be patient and try not to have a nervous breakdown over this election.