Any hopes of having a clear winner on election night in the U.S. Senate race in Alaska were dashed by the presence of write-in candidate, incumbent Republican Lisa Murkowski, who may turn out to have run the only successful write-in candidacy for the U.S. Senate since Strom Thurmond in 1954. Murkowski, after suffering a stinging defeat in the primary to Sarah Palin and Tea Party backed candidate Joe Miller, decided to mount a write-in campaign. With the help of huge donations of $1.2 million from Alaska Native corporations and other corporate sponsors, added to her million dollar war chest, Murkowski saturated the airwaves, filled mailboxes, created rubber bracelets, temporary tattoos, and plastered instructions on how to spell her name correctly on the sides of buses.
Her campaign had the effect not of splitting the Republican vote and ushering in a Democrat, but of splitting the "sanity vote" and potentially installing a candidate that the majority of Alaskans view as too extreme. A series of debacles in the Miller campaign, (the most recent of which was the arrest of a journalist who asked Miller questions after the candidate had stated that he would no longer talk to the press about his background) saw his disapproval ratings soar to more than 60% in recent days.
Murkowski managed to gain the support of many Democrats and left-leaning Independents who were desperate to keep Miller out, and were convinced a vote for Murkowski was the best way to do it. Whether that gamble paid off for voters has yet to be determined, though Murkowski's lead has widened as the vote count has continued into the morning.
So, what many postulate would have been a clear Democratic victory in a two-way race between Miller and his Democratic challenger Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams, will now become a Republican on Republican free-for-all. The primary between the two was contentious and Miller's attorney (also Sarah Palin's attorney) Thomas Van Flein accused the Murkowski campaign of vote tampering, and the Miller camp requested that Alaska State Troopers be placed at all polling places. This race, in what amounts to a "do over" of the Republican primary promises to be no less combative.
The write-in candidate's lead ranged from 3-6% as the votes were tallied. It is still unclear how many of the write-in ballots were, in fact, for Murkowski, and how many will be thrown out because of voter error or the legal challenges that may arise.
Interestingly, whoever does walk away with the seat will not have the support of the majority of voters (Murkowski 41%, Miller 34%, McAdams 24%), and if one of the two Republicans claims victory, he or she will do so having alienated the other half of the party support. The hostility that exists between Miller and Murkowski supporters, and the ever-increasing divide between Tea Party and Corporate Republicans will make for a difficult reconciliation in the party, if there is one.
During the political knife fight between the two Republicans, Democratic candidate Scott McAdams remained virtually unscathed. The previously unknown McAdams saw approval ratings higher than either of the other two candidates, and in six weeks managed to prove himself a viable candidate and strong contender for a future run. His campaign managed to raise more than a million dollars (a significant amount for an Alaska race), mostly from donations of $200 or less. .
To add to the complication, the Alaska Division of Elections mailed out about 31,200 absentee ballots which remain to be counted. The first batch will not be counted until November 9, and some absentee ballots including those from voters in the military coming from overseas won't be counted until November 17. The count of the actual ballots which are identified now only as "write-in candidate" will begin on November 18, and will likely be scrutinized by Miller's legal team to determine "voter intent." Some leeway exists for misspellings, but there are no clear and specific rules for what might be accepted, and what might not.
A loss by Miller, many feel, will be a repudiation of Sarah Palin, indicating that her endorsement is not even enough to get a candidate elected in her own state. Palin's disapporval rating has surpassed her approval rating since quitting her position as governor in July of 2009. Palin backed off her initial enthusiastic support of Miller after he refused to answer clearly whether he thought she was qualified to be president, but did headline a rally for Miller the week before the election. Miller has since said that, "of course" Palin is qualified.
A difference of 13,588 votes separate the two Republican candidates, with 98.63% of the precincts tallied. Miller has not conceded the race, and Murkowski has not claimed victory. Not even the candidates know how the strangest and most dramatic Senate race in the nation will play out, or how long it will take before we have a clear winner. It could be a long fight.
Update: The Division of Elections has just announced to The Associated Press today that the counting of write-in ballots will be moved up to November 10, with the hope of having a clear winner as early as late next week.
Follow Jeanne Devon ("AKMuckraker") on Twitter: www.twitter.com/Mudflats
Who are these "many" who postulated a Democrat victory? Look, I vote Democrat myself, but I think it's important not to let wishful thinking affect our perception of races that, face it, we had no chance of winning this year. Not a single poll I saw showed the Democrat even close to the lead. And even though Murkowski definitely isn't my ideal senator, I'd gladly take her over Miller.
I would not be so sure. McAdams had the full backing of the Democratic party machine and all he did was help Miller who (possibly with some tricks) could very well win unfortunately
Interesting concept. I guess the same could now be said about President Obama and a feeling of repudiation that his endorsement was not even enough to get a candidate elected in his own state.
Could we also say that President Obama's unapproval rating has now surpassed his approval rating - which mostl likely led to his inability to rally the base?
Just wonder why all the fuss over a little State like Alaska when the big news was the Giannoulias loss in Illinios - a state that matters just little more than Alaska in the overall political landscape.
Naturally, I hope for Alaska that they do not have to put up with Miller.
Thank you for the indepth report, Jeanne.
It seems that Joe Miller is trying claw back (I guess he had a good, crunchy, bed spread printed on his face brat petulant brat nap on election night and woke up wanting his toys) and is intent on making Coleman-Franken look like a puppy tussle over a chew toy.
http://theimmoralminority.blogspot.com/2010/11/raise-your-hand-if-this-in-any-way.html
(Does Alaska have any idea how sick the lower 48 is of whatever it is that goes on there? Not directed at good Alaskans. You're sick of it too. But Lord have mercy. How many brainless users do you produce up there anyway?)
But if he can't win, then I hope that that new date for an announcement reveals M-u-r-k-o-w-s-k-i. (Whats up with that spelling problem by the way? I'm assuming the Murkowski name is pretty familiar to the people of Alaska after how many years? And I'm also assuming that the bulk of Alaskans are intelligent enough to memorize 9 letters in the right order with weeks of advance notice? For some reason that bugged me. It made it sound like Alaska is made up of remedial students with the language skills of...Sarah Palin. But I digress)....Anyway I hope she has a clear win. I'm not a fan. But she is at least sane. And the political wallop to Alaska's most famous remedial student is...sweet.
(By the way, Miller not even bothering to come out and share the evening with his supporters is one of the most telling things about him. It seems he's as immature, unappreciate and pouty as his Fairy Godawful Mother.)
I saw the Rachael Maddow show from Alaska. It was a wonderful show.
I liked Scott McAdams a lot, as well. But you are right, if it is not him, Murkowski is definitely a whole lot saner than Miller.
however, "write in" Murkowski was familure, they knew
what they would get. Ethically challenged Joe Miller
was just.... too deep in his "tea" pot with almost every
domestic program being unconstitutional.
Now, its up to the lawyers & counters.
Scott, you did yourself proud and I hope to
see you again as an Alaska candidate.
Americans are very jealous of their free press, such as it is.
Karl Rove is a shameless man who eats his revenge hot or cold (he frankly doesn't seem to have a sense of taste and could digest nails and acid) and it's always struck me as kind of odd that a man who usually makes a point of operating behind the scenes went public dissing Palin's picks and even responding to her goads. My radar went off.
So either she's poking sticks at the sleeping dragon who's going to turn around and singe the big wig off of her big inflated head. Or....they're in it together. (As in it it's all just theater to shore up her "maverick" schtick for the very same rubes he's used all these years.) I don't know which it is. But I don't accept at face value that they're enemies. They're both cheap and shameless users and opportunists and I could see them forming a partnership.
In which case if the latter were true, then losing the senate would just be a sacrifice play because of a projection toward 2012 in their minds. He's knows she's a dummy. He also knows she's as soulless as he is. Neither one cares about the country. Just power. And money.
With apologies to Kansas from a long term Alaskan.
Palin and her banker are totally unconcerned about Alaska--
Got any reason why she should care any more????
.
Excuse me, but if you need the outcome of this election in order to tell whether Palin or Miller are election material, then you remind me of why I'm not an Alaskan.
Palin doesn't match the brains of an average major in journalism and Miller is to Reagan what Lady Gaga is to Madonna. And I mean the virgin Mary, not the pop star.
Here's what I must tell you: if you continue to refuse to call these people what they are - namely, downright ignorant fools - then you will not manage to get to the core of what ails you.
This is not a time when you need to worry about strategies and marketing of brands. This is a time where you need to realize that you can't climb mount everest with high heels.
You need to call a spade a spade.
These candidates are fools. It must be said.
I've seen the morning in the mountains of Alaska
I've seen the sunset in the east and in the west
I've sang the glory that was Rome
And passed the hound dog singer's home
It still seems for the best
And I'm far, far away
With my head up in the clouds
And I'm far, far away
With my feet down in the crowds
Lettin' loose around the world
But the call of home is loud
Still is loud