As with at Wednesday's Obama event in San Marcos, The Field showed up punctually at tonight's Clinton Event at Hemisfair Plaza in San Antonio, at five o'clock, to place an advance eyeball on the scene.
After all, these two events tonight -- Obama was in nearby Selma -- serve as the definitive fire drill for Tuesday night's caucuses in 622 precincts throughout Bexar County and its hub city of San Antonio: which candidate can turn out the troops?
And San Antonio is The Front: the border between Obama country - the Houston, Dallas/Fort Worth and Austin regions - and Clinton country - the Rio Grande Valley region. As Bexar County goes, so may well go Texas.
In downtown San Antonio, a few hundred people were on line to enter a penned-in area for the Clinton event, entering through three police checkpoints to go through metal detectors. On the other side of the press entrance was a riser with camera crews from the local ABC, CBS, Fox, NBC and Telemundo affiliates all setting up. I asked the local Fox correspondent where to find the Clinton press staff to get credentials. "I dunno," her response. Another local newsman said, "I haven't seen anybody yet." This was the first clue of the haphazard disorganization and no-show-ism that would characterize tonight's Clinton rally.
About half of the people on line were aging white folks and the other half Hispanics of all ages, both skewing about 60 percent women. Some of the Caucasian ladies were wearing white tee-shirts that proclaimed: "Girls Night Out '08: Hillary's Texan Raucous Caucus." Another woman had a "Ready on Day Won" poster and another wore a "Women's Rights Are Human Rights: Hillary" tee.
Unable to find the press staff, hungry, and clearly too early for the story, your correspondent ducked out and strolled along the nearby San Antonio Riverwalk, a parallel reality with little put-put tourist boats going by where nobody seemed aware that a presidential candidate was about to stop nearby (and nor was anyone there campaigning to rope them in). I slipped into Schilo's Deli on Commercial Street, and chomped down a delicious bagel-and-lox with Schilo's hot mustard ("Made with San Antonio pride," it said on the label), and jotted down a few notes to chronicle the empty non-spectacle I had just witnessed at Hemisfair Plaza. That didn't take long. I made my way back to the rally at 7:02 p.m. (the Clinton campaign had set 7 p.m. as the start-time for the event). There were several hundred now inside the pen and several hundred on line to get in.
Various camera crews were on the press line but couldn't get in for reasons unexplained. They did not seem like happy campers. A cop said, "Are there any reporters that don't have equipment to bring in?" Oh, my lucky stars! I jumped to the front of the line. He scanned with a handheld metal detector, and waved me through. The press area was tiny and claustrophobic, filled with people that clearly didn't want to be there, so I asked the warden, er, a Clinton guy, to let me out and into to the public area. "You'll have to wait for the staff to get back here." I gave him that pissed-off look for which I'm told I'm infamous, and he sighed, "okay, okay, go on through."
The first task was to measure the fenced-in area to estimate how many people could fit in the corral. That was easy, because there weren't enough people there to block me from walking in a straight line each way and count paces. And there I was, pacing the entire length of the arena, while Secret Service guys looked on nervously. Taking easy steps that were about two feet long, I measured 76 feet from the stage to the back, and almost 300 feet from side to side: 22,800 square feet, or 2,500 square yards. You could pack 15,000 into such a space like sardines, and about 5,000 would fit comfortably. But three quarters of this space was still vacant, with maybe 1,500 people swarmed around the stage and 150 more in seats on risers in the rear.
"Hey man, who do you write for?" some enterprising youths with tee shirts that proclaimed "Proud Bronx Democrats" converged upon me as I was scribbling on my pad. (Oh no, I thought: a paternity suit?) They said they had traveled here from New York with State Assemblyman Jose Rivera, chairman of the Bronx County Democrats. Good kids, they turned out to be. Their names are Uli and Tone. (New Jersey US Sen. Bob Menendez and Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa were also among the out-of-town surrogates here, working the Hispanic community for Clinton). Uli and Tone introduced me to their colleague Angel Cruz, and I mentioned that I was from 199th Street and the Grand Concourse. "Bedford Park!" he exclaimed, but then I was trapped. I was barrio now, and he insisted that we all pose for photos together. And there I was, saying "cheese" with the Bronx Clinton team in San Antonio, Texas. Angel promises to send the photos along to The Field.
With the exception of those guys - excited to be on a road trip (and out of the frozen Bronx, no doubt) - the rest of the crowd seemed fairly joyless. Everybody seems to know already how this is going to end up. This is the last hurrah.
One lone woman had a handmade sign that had the word "Obama" crossed out with the universal ban symbol - a red circle with a line through it - and the phrase, "Say no to hypocrisy." And yet, even among fellow travelers, she was all alone in the crowd. As was the lady that wore a shirt that said, "Bring A Clinton Back."
Some did travel in packs: A few members of the Machinists union arrived in blue "I Am Counting On Hillary" tee shirts with their union logo. A dozen AFSCME folks were there in their green "AFSCME for Hillary" tees. A half dozen members of the American Federation of Teachers were present, sporting blue AFT-Hillary shirts. And a lone man in a suit emblazoned with United Farm Workers buttons, carrying a UFW flag, was milling around.
At 7:47 a band took the stage. Now, I knew it was the guys from the Houston-based La Mafia and a good number of the Hispanic youths in the audience did, too, but nobody had introduced them to the assembled and many of the vowel-impaired among them scratched their heads. These guys are music industry giants. They have filled the Astrodome. Tonight they couldn't draw 2,000 people. That's gotta be a buzzkill. As the band played I went to check the three entrances again.
By 7:50 p.m. the northern entrance, from downtown, already had no line waiting to get in. The western entrance, had 24 people on line. And the southern entrance, still had 150 to 180, mostly Hispanic folks from the South Side, still getting processed through the metal detectors.
Oscar de La Rosa, the lead singer for La Mafia, generated applause and cheers shouting "Tejanos for Hillary! Latinos for Hillary! Texas for Hillary! Let me see all your signs!" The flurry of enthusiasm lasted for about 30 seconds, and then trickled out.
I asked Uli and Tone for their estimate of the crowd size. They shrugged their shoulders and asked for mine. "1,500."
"Oh, that's bad," Uli exclaimed, but made no counter-estimate.
"I don't see any black people here," Angel noted.
"Glad you guys could make it," I said. "It doesn't seem like there will be too many more of these."
But, hey, it got us all out of the Bronx!
KSAT Channel 13 estimated 8,000 at the Obama rally in nearby Selma. So did KENS Channel 5. Selma, Texas has a population, according to the US Census, of 788 people. And Obama drew 8,000 there - ten times, or a thousand percent, of the local population - many of them, of course, drove from nearby San Antonio.
San Antonio has a population of 1.3 million people. Clinton drew 1,500 - maybe 1,800, or 0.13 percent (thanks for the math correction, kind reader!) of the population - here tonight.
I still don't know about the Texas primary and its 126 pledged district delegates and how to call it. More investigation and numbers-crunching is on the docket for this weekend.
But regarding those 67 pledged district delegates to be chosen by caucus later on Tuesday night: It's pretty clear which campaign is going to be pulling them to the caucuses in droves. After all, Clinton's event tonight was called for 7 p.m. - the same hour as the caucuses next Tuesday night - but not even with a stadium-sized musical group could she bring many of the locals out tonight.
There were two stories out of Greater San Antonio tonight. I chose the path less traveled...
There are 8,000 precincts in Texas, each one with a caucus, and there will be 8,000 stories on Tuesday night, 622 of them here in Bexar County. No wonder her people want to sue to stop those caucuses from happening.
The caucuses are going to go down in history as the Texas stampede that will likely ensure that no matter how the primary goes, Obama will come out of Texas as the Lone Star in the Democratic presidential contest... with the most Texan Democratic National Convention delegates.
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hah, looks like you were wrong.
nice try though...
I believe that Obama wins by 8% in Texas. He wins by 2% in Ohio. He wins big in Vermont by 30%. Road Island is a dead heat. But, if I am right Obama will win there too. The reason for the big win in Texas is several fold. 400,000 Calls were made by Move-On for Obama this last weekend. Also the Republican cross over vote will favor Obama 3 to 1. In Ohio I gave Obama the margin of error and then some. So, he edges Clinton by 2% late night in Ohio.
Yes, The Bush administration did a lot of damage to our freedoms and Constitution. What dumbfounds me is that Hillary Clinton never took one minuet to carry the freedom/Constitutional banner. After all, Democrats aren"t exempt from the Constitution; are they?
Unfortunately, Hillary Clinton never had an organized campaign in the first place. Instead She preferred to run a Dukakis style campaign, only running in big states. Obama wins because he reached out and stayed on message. Hillary has her kitchen sink.
Rally attendence can be telling. There is a singular lack of enthusiasm about Clinton's campaign that has posed a serious problem for her. It is a "change" election cycle, and she has played the one-note tune of "experience" since the start of her campaign. Without sizable numbers of enthusiastic supporters, she will inevitably be drowned out by the far more compelling story of an actual movement for change that has been underway for some time now.
wow the misguided (and thats giving you credit) assumptions made in this post are very upsetting to a san antonio native who believes in logic and real "journalism"...selma, tx is san antonio, the city has grown to encompass it. I guess it must really hard to miss the huge subdivisions and shopping centers leading up to it. I mean I go Verizon and that area often and I live securely in san antonio, in fact, going to Hillary's rally is a farther distance than Obamas.
Why would there be 8,000 people at a street intersection that is standing room only? If Hillary paid for or was given the space at Verizon she would have been slammed by people just like you.
HuffPost used to be a place where I would go for insightful and interesting opinions from the writers and people commenting. It's shame to see that with this election most of that has disappeared.
Rally numbers aren't indicitive of final polling numbers. I would say the people that are ultimately most likely to vote for Hillary are not the type that try to inform themselves or attend a political rally. While the nature of Obama's campaign is such that I would expect a higher % of his final voting number to actually attend a rally.
I will be pleasantly supprised if Obama manages to come within 5% of the vote to Clinton in Ohio, or Texas. Anything better than that would be a miracle.
Al,
I like your quote below. You sound like you think you are a tough guy! Full of yourself and your own opinion. The cold weather suits you and your personality fine!
Als Quote:
I gave him that pissed-off look for which I'm told I'm infamous, and he sighed, "okay, okay, go on through."
Now for MY PREDICTIONS -- HILLARY WILL WIN TEXAS!!
Here is why:
I visited my relatives in San Antonio this weekend (from Dallas) so I had about 10 hours of drive time this weekend. Since I need to stay awake for the drive, I stayed on the AM dial, flipping talk radio stations from city to city.
Let me start with the AM Shock Jocks:
They hate Obama. They are deplorable and they focused primarily on attacks on Obama. Limbaugh, Hannity, Beck, and ALL THE LOCALS, all of them, they ranted and ranted against Barack Huuuuuusssseeeiiinnnne Obama! All the rumors you hear about on the GOP and ANTI websites about Obama¦ the outfit, the church, the middle name (we should be able to use his middle name, is this America?? where there is smoke there is fire.....) it was ALL OVER THE PLACE! Then they went on and on¦ blah blah blah as the callers called in and wink wink elbow, elbow, ¦it is NOT me saying this, it is the CALLER!
I remember one elderly gentleman caller who said, "I don´t care! Anyone who hides his middle name has something to hide!" (wink, wink, terrorist) Then the AM Shock Jock saying, "Callers, let me know if you agree with me and my buddy Bob" as he requested callers to call in.
Nobody, none of these callers listen to Meet the Press or Chris Matthews on MSNBC Hardballin´ Around! Or reading Made Girly Men like you Al!!
These were good ole boys listenen´ to their their Local AMShockJocks as they do, Monday through Saturday, every day when they git up and work their tractors. This is heartland America. This is NOT the "Bradley" effect as occurred in LA. This is the "Good Ole Boy" effect!
I heard a few of them saying, "I am doing as Ann Coulter told us to do. I hate McCain for supporting the illeeeeeeeeeeegals! I am voting for Hillary just to show Dubya that he and the Republicans gotta change their ways!!"
I got some interesting input to the contrary:
I'm from Texas originally; the rest of my family still lives there (Repubs all, in Austin and the Hill Country). Last night I had a long conversation with my parents. First of all I was surprised that my parents, Bush Republicans, stated that they would consider voting for Obama; they say they're not going to automatically vote for McCain.
To cut to the chase, though: My father said, "I know of three Republicans who say they're going to vote for Obama Tuesday." I thought the worst, and asked, "Why - do they think he will be easier to beat in November?" His reply: "No, no. The Democrats might win in November, and if they do, we want there to be no possibility that the president will be another Clinton."
Don't shoot me, I'm not a Republican; I'm just the messenger...And for the record, though I support Obama I will gladly support Clinton if she wins the nomination.
Mark Penn predicted three weeks ago that the Texas and Ohio primaries would move her into a tie with Obama.
That's my benchmark.
I'm an Obama supporter, and I would LOVE to believe this means Clinton is going to lose Texas, but I think it just means not a lot of people need to go and see her speak. It doesn't mean she's not going to do well in Texas. In fact, it could mean the exact opposite.
By the way, the tone of your piece undermines your credibility.
Don't get me wrong; I'm happy for press that casts my candidate in the best lights, but I'm also realistic.
Have you heard of the Box 13 in South Texas and LBJ?
Then he should blow her out, eh?
nah, anninca. too late to try and downplay what is obvious to everyone with a brain and a half decent memory. hillary needs to win BIG. she won't. even if she squeaks it out in ohio (and she probably won't), she'll lose texas. and even if it's by one vote, she needs to drop out of the race. it's OVER.
Good piece, Mr. G! Don't EVER count the Clintons out, tho -- this is Bill and Hillary, afterall -- and NOTHING gets in the way of the throne!!
I expect to see some real, seat-of-the-pants antics out of these two, talented scam artists in the next two days. Hillary will probably cry, crocodile tears, of course. Bill will get into some kind of fight with a paid heckler or a reporter, and then blame it on Barack.
Howie Wolfson and Mark Penn will whine and cry about how racist and sexist everyone is who doesn't support Hillary, all the while encoraging their on-line surrogates to slime Obama with every salacious bit of gossip they can manufacture.
The Clintons may be going down (finally, thank god!), but being the selfish brats that they are, they won't be content until they take the Democratic Party with them -- unfortunately.
First of all your article makes it very clear you wanted to be anywhere but San Antonio or covering Senator Clintons rally. Might this be a reason for your negativity and mis representation of the facts.
Lets start off with the fact that when Obama came to San Antonio for the first time in February, his appearance at the Guadalupe center turned out maybe 2500 people at best. However Senator Clintons first trip to San Antonio at St. Mary's University which was also held in early February had a crowd that filled the University venue and had an additional 4000 to 5000 people outside the University waiting to hear her speak.
That being said I was at the rally also and you know your numbers are far from the truth. She had a much larger crowd than what you listed.
Her popularity goes far beyond San Antonio. When she visited El Paso she filled the Don Haskins arena, which was about 11 to 12,000 people. Amazing how no one ever reports the big numbers.
I would also like to stress that in San Antonio Senator Clinton has received twice as many donations as Obama. WOAI reported that Obama was listed as 7th among all candidates in regards to donations received in San Antonio.
So let's try to keep things in perspective and honest.....
i'm from san anto, and i can tell you that there's a lot of knuckleheads down there. that might explain hillary larger donations. still, though, when it comes down to crunch time, i gotta believe that my hometown will deliver for barrack.
The mayor endorsed him.
But since there isn't much of a democratic party machine in Texas, that doesn't mean as much as, say, the mayor of Philadelphia endorsing Clinton.
Texas will actually be a great test - both campaigns are prepared and have volunteers swarming the state. As noted above, since there's really no party machine in Texas, the fix won't be in; you won't find polling places in heavily black precincts registering 0 votes for Obama, for example.
It's big, it's diverse, it's... big. You've got white voters in the center of the state who are relatively progressive, and you've got whites in east texas who are basically klansmen.
I give Clinton the edge, if only because she's a celebrity, which means she'll get the late deciders. The caucuses, on the other hand, will be a rout.
Looks like Bill Clinton is supporting Obama, reminds me to be careful what one says. Thanks Bill, again as we thank you for your many words in South Carolina.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yZW0m2nWB_M
That's absolutely priceless. Unfortunately, I think Bill already cast his ballot; I guess that's one more vote the Clintons would like to have back.
Bill gets to cast his vote twice. Once in New York and once as a superdelegate for his wife.
There is a bit of difficulty in connecting the number of people a candidate draws to a rally with the number of voters who will vote for each candidate on election day. JFK found that out in Ohio where he drew large, cheering crowd when RMN took Ohio in the election. The fat lady doesn't sing till all the votes from March 4, 2008 are counted.
Yeah I been to San Antonio many times. If she could not get over 2000 people to come out. This is a very poor sign for Hillary. Texans stand behind who they vote for!!! They show up at all events. Texas is a different country. The people fill strongly for who the vote for. Hillary is toasted!!!
yeah, sorry, larry278, MRb1000 has a point. Texas is like a whole different country, and Texas Democrats take this kind of thing seriously. If thats all she could pull with a local rally, while Obama has folks driving miles just to hear him, then I think your optimism may be misplaced. Tell your girl to quit the BS, and get onboard. Obama is going to need her toughness, and your loyalty, if we are going to get anything done.
not to mention that my fellow mexicans love the hell out of a party. and if la mafia couldn't bring out the westsiders, a FREE concert, then they sure aren't going to turn out on tuesday. all this "latinos for hillary" junk is junk. my family, friends, and acquaintances in s.a. report a huge buzz about barack.
I'll agree with you if you say that you're sorry if you say that you're sorry, Kordo. Since I was in the USAF-I had occasion to visit Tejas from time to time. I've been in Bejar county. too As for Tejas being like a whole different, no way Jose. Anglos use Yanqui spelling & speak English, the gringo language, not el Espanol. Anglo Tejanos & their enclaves in Tejas are as white bread as Kansas. W is a Yanqui. The Tejas is a whole different country went out when LBJ died & the oil patch went dry. Her Hillaryship isn't my girl; she's her own woman.
Why can't you tell her Hillaryship yourself? You aren't afraid of her-are you? She understands English. I'm not about to tell her Hillaryship anything for you; try sending her a fax or e-mail if you are afraid to speak to her. She reads English too. As for optimism-you're using lines LBJ used when he talked about winning in 'Nam & like W talks about the so called surge doing well. As for loyalty-I've been for Barack Hussein Obama since he started for donations on line; I will also vote for her Hillaryship if she wins the nomination in Denver. It's about solidarity, dude. As you somewhat grudglingly write [her Hillaryship] has 'toughness'. The zaftig woman won't sing till after the polls close on 3/4/08 & all of the votes are counted. If I want to see a whole different country-I cross the border at the Rio Bravo or other points. I again suggest that you fax or e-mail her Hillaryship if you have a message for her but are too frightened to speak to her face to face.
Back to BS if his Barackship or her Hillaryship ever get to Ireland & kiss the Blarney Stone either of them would recharge the Blarney Stone. Both her Hillaryship & his Barackship are Democrats & have supporters who bluster about victory but have repeatedly snatched defeat from the jaws of defeat. You might know at least one of them. No, don't look in the mirror.
I suggest that you visit Barack Hussein Obama's site & make a donation to insure that BHO becomes POTUS on 1/20/09.
What you observed in San Antonio parallels my observations in Stockton California before the California primary. Clinton held a rally with husband Bill as keynote speaker. Spanos Center holds 6,100 and maybe 2,500 people were present (the entire upper seating area was empty and the bottom part was only partly full). What's more the crowd was hardly enthusiastic. Clinton's appearance before approximately 2,500 people at the Jerry McNereny rally at Stockton Airport in the rain was more raucous. Obviously, lack of enthusiasm doesn't necessary mean a lot since Clinton did well in California.
How did the early balloting go for Clinton in CA? She netted about a million votes before anyone had even heard of Barack Obama.
Roger, I am just south of you in CA and do not think Texas and CA are a good analogy. Obama was just starting to become known and really did not have the time to campaign and close the gap here for super Tuesday. I think if he Obama had another week we would have seen the same pattern of closing a 20% gap and whittling down to a minority win or loss. I know lots of Hillary voters are having buyers remorse here in CA.
Elvis drew big crowds too and he couldn't even dance like Obama can, being White and all. Even Bill Clinton was deprived of his title of "The First Black President" because he can't dance and "other things".
Do we want a Rock Star to lead the Country?
Yeah and evangelist preachers fill stadiums every Sunday around the nation with messages of hope, change and a better life. These preachers inspire their flock, get them to donate vast sums of their hard earned money so they, the preachers can live the lifestyle of the rich and famous. So to goes the Obamas - full of inspirational words, they are the new Tammy Faye and Jim Baker of the modern day political scene... bringing their followers to tears, fainting and waving hands, giddy with euphoria, praise be the Lord.... "He" is the ONE!
The one distinguishing characteristic noted about Barack Obama after joining the US Senate by his fellow senators was his bold "ambition" more than any other redeeming quality. Unfortunately history is full of scenarios were due to blind ambition, some people were able to capture the reigns of power and not because they were truly the best to lead their people or nations. Barack plays it safe too much of the time, like a contestant on The Apprentice hoping to not get fired along the way, but too often also not stepping up to the plate to fully participate and take controversial stands.
If he gets the nomination and then fails to get the presidency, we should call in the grief counselors now because his supporters will need some serious grief counseling for the crushing blow of the defeat of their dream, the hopes dashed.
Naw, Barack Obama's supporters are used to electoral defeats. REALLY, REALLY used to them - I've been waiting for the shoe to drop ever since Iowa.
Anyway, that's neither here nor there - why did you say I should vote for Hillary Clinton?
If.
Excuse me while I do the Boog--a-loo.
Selma is basically the Verizon ampitheatre, a Hooters, couple of car dealerships, and cops. Oh, and the site where our future president held a rally on 2/29/08.
This is a perfect account of how Hillary is toast. Completely being outworked by Obama in a city where she should dominate.
And yes, Schilo's is hella good!
but if you want the good fajitas, you gotta go to chachas!
Yeah, Selma is a suburb of SA, with a horserace track, and a concert venue (which is where Obama appeared). Randolph AFB is just down the road. Trivia: when I was a young adult in the late 70's Selma was one of the worst speedtraps in all of TX. Also, totally trivial, but it's Commerce Street, not Commercial Street.
Posted March 1, 2008 | 06:43 PM (EST)